Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Stats
The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course over 2 miles and 4 furlongs typically plays into the hands of a horse with “speed-stamina” versatility—those who find 2 miles too sharp but 3 miles a fraction too far.
The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Chase
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Class/Rating: 12 out of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher. This is strictly a race for established elite chasers.
Cheltenham Factor: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, and 9 of those had already won at the track.
Grade 1 Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had a Grade 1 victory already on their CV.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice earlier that season.
The “Mullins/Nicholls” Grip: These two trainers have accounted for 6 of the last 12 winners.
Runner Analysis & Order of Preference
1. Fact To File (Age: 7 | NR: 185.5)
The Verdict: He is the quintessential Ryanair horse. At 7 years old, he is in the peak age bracket. He is already a Festival winner (2024 Brown Advisory) and his Neural Rating of 185.5 is the highest recorded in this division for three years. He fits the “Course Winner” and “Grade 1 Winner” trends perfectly. His tactical speed on Good to Soft ground is arguably his greatest weapon.
Trend Score: 10/10
2. Jonbon (Age: 12 | NR: 152.0)
The Verdict: A high-class operator, but he is now moving into the “veteran” category at age 12. Only one horse in the last 12 years has won this aged older than 9 (Envoi Allen at 9, and Frodon at 7). While his NR is strong and his class is undeniable, history suggests he may struggle to hold off a younger, peaking improver like Fact To File.
Trend Score: 8/10 (Age is a significant trend negative).
3. Impaire Et Passe (Age: 8 | NR: 108.2)
The Verdict: He fits the age trend (8) and the “Mullins-trained” trend. He has a Festival win to his name (Baring Bingham) and has the cruising speed for 2.5 miles. While his NR in chasing is lower than Jonbon’s, his trend profile for this specific race is arguably cleaner as an 8-year-old “bridger” of distances.
Trend Score: 9/10
4. Banbridge (Age: 10 | NR: 66.3)
The Verdict: A specialist on Good to Soft/Good ground. He skipped the race in previous years due to soft ground, so conditions are finally in his favour. However, at age 10, he is just outside the preferred age bracket. His jumping is his main asset, but his NR suggests he lacks the “X-factor” speed of the favourite.
Trend Score: 7/10
5. Matata (Age: 7 | NR: 72.3)
The Verdict: A bold, front-running type who fits the age profile. He will likely lead the field and test the jumping of others. However, he lacks the Grade 1 win trend (11 of the last 12 winners had one) and his rating suggests he is a high-end handicapper rather than a genuine Ryanair king.
Trend Score: 6/10
6. Master Chewy (Age: 9 | NR: 64.7)
The Verdict: A consistent performer in Grade 1 company this year, but he has become somewhat “exposed.” He fits the age profile but lacks the “Season Win” trend that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 5/10
7. JPR One (Age: 9 | NR: 59.8)
The Verdict: Similar to Master Chewy, he is a solid Grade 2/3 horse who has struggled to make the breakthrough at the top level. He fits the age and course-experience trends but fails the “Rating 161+” class threshold.
Trend Score: 4/10
8. Heart Wood (Age: 8 | NR: 55.7)
The Verdict: Winner of the Leopardstown Handicap Chase in 2024, but his transition to Grade 1 level has been steady rather than spectacular. He is the right age, but lacks the “Grade 1 Winner” trend.
Trend Score: 4/10
9. Croke Park (Age: 8 | NR: 64.3)
The Verdict: Likely to find this trip a bit of a “sprint” against specialists. He fits the age profile but lacks the tactical speed seen in previous winners like Allaho or Un De Sceaux.
Trend Score: 3/10
Final Selection Summary
1. Fact To File (The standout trend and statistical selection)
2. Impaire Et Passe (The “Mullins” alternative)
3. Jonbon (The class play, despite age concerns)
4. Banbridge (The ground specialist)
