Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Stats

Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 Stats

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

Back-to-Back Winners: While rare, it has been done by Al Boum Photo (2019/20) and Galopin Des Champs (2023/24).
The 8-Year-Old Peak: 8-year-olds have the best strike rate in the last decade.
Supplemented Success: Inothewayurthinkin broke a long-standing trend last year by becoming the first supplemented horse to win.
Course Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won at least once previously at the Cheltenham Festival.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Inothewayurthinkin (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Mark Walsh)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He is the defending champion and, at 8 years old, he is in the physical prime for a repeat. His victory last year was no fluke; he travelled best and stayed strongest. Crucially, while he won on “Soft” last year, his trainer has always maintained that better ground allows him to use his tactical speed more effectively.
Verdict: The horse they all have to beat. He has the course form, the rating (178), and the proven stamina. He is the rightful statistical favourite to join the elite club of back-to-back winners.

2. Gaelic Warrior (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 9/10. If there is a “speed horse” to challenge the champion on Good ground, it is him. An 8-year-old with a rating of 175, his jumping is much straighter than it used to be. He has won at the Festival twice and his Savills Chase win proved he stays 3 miles.
Verdict: The primary challenger. On faster ground, his high cruising speed could put the field under pressure earlier than usual, testing Inothewayurthinkin’s ability to “bridge the gap” late on.

3. Grey Dawning (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 8/10. An 8-year-old rated 170. He won the Turners last year and the King George this season. He is the definition of a “Cheltenham horse”—he loves the New Course and the uphill finish.
Verdict: The best British hope. He is incredibly tough, but statistically, he might lack the pure “gear” that Inothewayurthinkin and Gaelic Warrior possess on a sounder surface.

4. Firefox (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 7/10. A 7-year-old on the upgrade. He has been aimed at this all season and fits the profile of a younger horse coming into the race with a point to prove.
Verdict: A major each-way player. He is less exposed than the top three, though he needs a career-best performance to dethrone the reigning champion.

5. L’Homme Presse (Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch)

Trends Fit: 6/10. Now 11, the stats are firmly against him. However, he was a gallant fourth in this race last year and remains one of the best jumpers in the business.
Verdict: Likely to give his all but should find the younger trio too sharp on Good ground.

 

Revised Order of Preference

1. Inothewayurthinkin (The defending champion; statistically perfect for a repeat)
2. Gaelic Warrior (The biggest threat on fast ground; massive engine)
3. Grey Dawning (Best British contender; a King George winner with elite course form)
4. Firefox (Improving 7-year-old from a top Irish yard)
5. L’Homme Presse (Classy veteran, but age is the major trend negative)

 

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Grade 1 Stats

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Grade 1 Stats

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

The Favourite’s Graveyard: Zero favourites have won in the last 12 years. The last successful favourite was At Fishers Cross in 2013.
Price Matters: 10 of the last 12 winners were sent off at double-figure odds (including 50/1 and 33/1 shots).
Age Profile: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Stamina is King: 11 of the last 12 winners had already run over at least 2m 7f.
Freshness: 10 of the last 12 winners had not raced for at least 30 days.
Irish Dominance: 9 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Thedeviluno (Trainer: Paul Nolan | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He is the quintessential Albert Bartlett horse. An Irish-trained 7-year-old with a rating of 141, he won the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster last time out—a key trial for this race (Stay Away Fay followed the same path). He stays all day and, crucially, fits the trend of being a high-class Irish raider at a double-figure price (approx 12/1).
Verdict: He meets every single major trend. His battling qualities are perfect for this race.

2. Kazansky (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jordan Gainford)

Trends Fit: 9/10. Another strong Irish candidate. He is a 6-year-old rated 139 who was a very good second to Doctor Steinberg in a Grade 1 last month. While he was beaten there, Albert Bartlett winners often come from the placed horses in shorter-trip Grade 1s. He has won over 2m 7f on heavy ground, so his stamina is proven.
Verdict: Tailor-made for this test. He fits the age, rating, and trainer profiles perfectly.

3. The Passing Wife (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue)

Trends Fit: 8/10. Representing Gavin Cromwell, who won this with Vanillier. He is a 7-year-old rated 143 who won his last start at Punchestown. He has plenty of experience and is a very slick jumper.
Verdict: High-class Irish form and the right age. He is a major player who will likely be overlooked in the betting.

4. Doctor Steinberg (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 6/10. The “Statistically Vulnerable” Favourite. While he is the best horse in the race (rated 147) and won a Grade 1 last time, he fails the two biggest trends: he is the likely favourite (0/12 for favourites) and he has never raced beyond 2m 4f.
Verdict: Classy, but history suggests he may be outstayed by more seasoned types at a shorter price than is justified.

5. Spinningayarn (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 7/10. A 6-year-old who has won 3 of his 4 hurdle starts. He fits the “unexposed” profile that Willie Mullins often uses to win this race, though he is trained by Elliott.
Verdict: A progressive type, but his lack of a run over 3m is a slight concern for a race this demanding.

6. Mondoui’boy (Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones)

Trends Fit: 5/10. The best of the British. He has won his last two starts and seems to be improving rapidly. However, British-trained horses have a poor recent record against the Irish in this specific race.
Verdict: A solid each-way contender but may find one or two of the Irish too strong at the finish.

7. Espresso Milan (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Patrick Mullins)

Trends Fit: 5/10. A “wildcard” entry for Mullins. He won a minor race at Thurles by a wide margin. He fits the trend of winners coming from unheralded prep races (like The Nice Guy), but his jumping can be sketchy.
Verdict: A dangerous outsider who fits the “big price” trend.

 

Order of Preference

1. Thedeviluno (Perfect trend match; proven stayer at a good price)
2. Kazansky (Strong Irish Grade 1 form; looks like a 3-miler)
3. The Passing Wife (Classy, the right age, and from a top yard)
4. Spinningayarn (Unexposed and progressive)
5. Doctor Steinberg (Class leader but fails the stamina and favourite trends)
6. Mondoui’boy
7. Espresso Milan

Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase Grade 2 Stats

Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase Grade 2 Stats

Key Trends (2021–2025)

Irish Dominance: 5 of the 5 winners were trained in Ireland.
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 3 of the 5 renewals (Colreevy, Elimay, and Dinoblue).
Official Rating: 4 of the 5 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Age Profile: All 5 winners were aged 7 or 8. Note: Last year’s winner, Dinoblue, attempts to become the first 9-year-old winner.
Market Position: All 5 winners returned at 3/1 or shorter.
Recent Form: 5 of the 5 winners won their final start before the Festival.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Dinoblue (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Mark Walsh)

Trends Fit: 9/10. The defending champion and highest-rated mare in the field (159). She fits every trend except age, as she is now 9. However, her form this season—winning at Naas and Navan—suggests she remains at the peak of her powers.
Verdict: The clear standard-bearer. She thrives on “Good” ground and has the tactical speed to navigate this 2m 4f trip. Statistically, she is the most likely winner.

2. Spindleberry (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 8/10. An 8-year-old rated 153. She won a Grade 1 against males at Fairyhouse last season and outclassed rivals at Doncaster in December. She failed to settle in the Irish Gold Cup, but the drop back to 2m 4f and returning to mares-only company is a perfect trend match.
Verdict: The primary danger to her stablemate. She represents the “improving younger mare” profile that has won 4 of the 5 renewals.

3. Panic Attack (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 7/10. A rare British hope who is “unbeaten” for this yard over fences (4 from 4), including the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Although she is 10 years old (breaking the age trend) and rated 147 (borderline), her course form is exceptional.
Verdict: The best each-way alternative to the Irish. She receives 3lb from the top two, which statistically gives her a fighting chance of hitting the frame.

4. Diva Luna (Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones)

Trends Fit: 6/10. A 7-year-old rated 143. She has transitioned to chasing flawlessly, winning two Listed events. While she is slightly below the typical winning rating of 150+, she meets the “lightly-raced improver” profile.
Verdict: A progressive type who could be better than her current mark, though she needs to find nearly 15lb of improvement to trouble Dinoblue.

5. July Flower (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe)

Trends Fit: 6/10. A 7-year-old Irish mare with a rating of 143. She won a Grade 2 chase over 2m but has found the step up to Grade 1 against the males difficult. She meets the trainer and age trends.
Verdict: Respected given the yard, but her lack of a win over 2m 4f+ is a negative trend compared to the stayers above her.

6. Only By Night (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue)

Trends Fit: 5/10. An 8-year-old rated 148. She was a brilliant second in the Arkle last year but hasn’t fully fired in her two starts this season. She also comes here off the back of a 5th place, failing the “last time out winner” trend.
Verdict: Talented but looks to have lost some of the momentum required to win a race of this depth.

7. Telepathique (Trainer: Lucy Wadham | Jockey: Tom Cannon)

Trends Fit: 3/10. An 8-year-old rated 147. While consistent, she was soundly beaten by Spindleberry earlier this season. British-trained mares are 0-for-5 in this race so far.
Verdict: Likely to be outclassed by the Grade 1-calibre Irish mares.

 

Order of Preference

1. Dinoblue (The class leader; defending champion with perfect prep)
2. Spindleberry (High-rated stablemate with Grade 1 winning form)
3. Panic Attack (Best British hope; excellent course form)
4. Diva Luna (Young improver with a high ceiling)
5. July Flower
6. Only By Night
7. Telepathique

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Stats

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

The Irish Stronghold: Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 10 renewals.
The Mullins/Elliott Grip: Willie Mullins (4 wins) and Gordon Elliott (2 wins) dominate the profile.
Last Time Out: 10 of the last 12 winners won their previous start.
Graded Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Flat Background: High-class flat performers (rated 90+) have a strong strike rate on “Good” ground.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Maestro Conti (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He ticks every box for a prototypical Triumph winner. Unbeaten in two starts in Ireland, including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He was a high-class flat horse in France and, crucially, his action suggests he will thrive on the drying “Good” ground.
Verdict: The clear statistical leader. Representing the most successful yard in the race’s recent history and coming in off a win.

2. One Horse Town (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 9/10. A very close second in terms of profile. Winner of a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, he is a stout stayer who would perhaps prefer a softer surface, but his “never-say-die” attitude fits the trend of Elliott-trained juveniles who out-battle rivals up the Cheltenham hill.
Verdict: The primary challenger. If the pace is overly strong, his stamina will be a massive asset.

3. Highland Crystal (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 7/10. The best of the British. She is a prolific winner this season (4 from 4) but hasn’t faced the same level of opposition as the top Irish pair. However, the Skelton yard is excellent at target-training, and she meets the trend of being a last-time-out winner.
Verdict: A major threat if the Irish leaders underperform. Her slick jumping is a major plus on faster ground.

4. Selma De Vary (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Danny Mullins)

Trends Fit: 7/10. Often the “second-string” Mullins horse performs well in this race (e.g., Burning Victory). She was second to Maestro Conti last time. While she fails the “must have won last time out” trend, she is highly rated and the yard’s dominance cannot be ignored.
Verdict: A very strong each-way candidate who could easily reverse form with the favourite if he finds the occasion too much.

5. Fantasy World (Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: J. J. Slevin)

Trends Fit: 6/10. Joseph O’Brien has a great record in this race (Ivanovich Gorbatov). This horse was a 100-rated flat performer. He hasn’t won a Graded hurdle yet, which is a negative trend, but his flat speed is perfectly suited to a “Good” ground Triumph Hurdle.
Verdict: The “dark horse” of the race. Statistically slightly behind on hurdle experience, but a danger on the ground.

6. Proactif (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. A consistent type but has been held by Maestro Conti and One Horse Town already this season. He lacks the “Grade 1 engine” seen in the last 12 winners.
Verdict: Likely to finish in the middle of the pack; hard to see him winning based on previous speed ratings.

7. Minella Study (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: Rachael Blackmore)

Trends Fit: 4/10. Only one run over hurdles (a maiden win). 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs over hurdles. He is likely too inexperienced for the helter-skelter nature of a Triumph.
Verdict: One for the future, but trends suggest this comes too soon.

 

Order of Preference

1. Maestro Conti (The statistical standout; unbeaten and top-tier yard)
2. One Horse Town (Strongest Graded form and Elliott’s primary hope)
3. Highland Crystal (Leading British contender with perfect winning sequence)
4. Selma De Vary (High-class Mullins second-string with Graded experience)
5. Fantasy World (Flat speed makes him the danger on “Good” ground)
6. Proactif
7. Minella Study

Verified by MonsterInsights