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Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Stats

Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) at 1:20 pm on Thursday, 12th March 2026

The going is Good to Soft, which is standard for this race and typically allows the cream of the Irish mares to use their superior cruising speeds.

The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Irish Dominance: Irish-trained runners have won 9 of the 10 renewals (90%).
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 5 of the 10 renewals.
Freshness: 9 of the 10 winners had a break of at least 26 days prior to the festival.
Class: 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth at least £5,000 to the winner.
Market Position: 8 of the 10 winners were in the top four of the betting.
Season Form: All winners had won at least once earlier in the season.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Oldschool Outlaw (NR: 164.2)

The Verdict: Boasting the highest Neural Rating in the field by a significant margin, she fits the “class” trend perfectly. Her rating of 164.2 suggests she is a Grade 1 mare in a Grade 2 race. Being Irish-trained and arriving here on the back of a dominant season, she ticks every major trend box, particularly the requirement for high-value previous wins.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Bambino Fever (NR: 140.8)

The Verdict: Another strong Irish contender who meets the age and season-form requirements. Her NR of 140.8 marks her as the primary danger to the favourite. She has shown she handles Good to Soft ground and has the tactical speed required for the “Dawn Run” course.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. Kingston Queen (NR: 87.3)

The Verdict: A solid performer who fits the profile of a typical Mullins/Irish improver. While her NR is lower than the top two, her “Course Factor” and “Timing” stats are high. She arrives fresh, which is a key trend for this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Diamond Du Berlais (NR: 83.7)

The Verdict: Represents a slightly more “exposed” profile but remains a high-class novice. Her speed figures on Good to Soft ground are competitive. She fits the trend of winners having had exactly 2 or 3 runs over hurdles prior to arriving at Cheltenham.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. White Noise (NR: 83.2)

The Verdict: A progressive type who has seen significant market support. Her NR is almost identical to Diamond Du Berlais, but she gains the edge in “Distance” stats. She is a strong stayer at 2 miles, which is vital for the climb to the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

6. La Conquiere (NR: 78.7)

The Verdict: While she has the “French-bred” profile that often does well in this race, her NR suggests she may lack the raw gear-change of the top three. She is a reliable jumper but likely an each-way prospect at best.
Trend Score: 6/10

7. Place De La Nation (NR: 73.0)

The Verdict: A middle-tier rating. She hasn’t quite reached the Grade 2 level in her previous starts, and trends suggest you need to be a “graded horse in waiting” to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10

8. Blue Velvet (NR: 65.7)

The Verdict: Despite a reasonable rating, she fails the “Top 4 in the betting” trend. Historically, winners of this race are very well-found in the market.
Trend Score: 4/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Oldschool Outlaw (The Statistical Standout)
2. Bambino Fever (The Main Danger)
3. Kingston Queen (The Freshness Play)
4. Diamond Du Berlais (The Consistent Novice)

Cheltenham Top Rated Horses Thursday 12th March

Cheltenham top Rated Horses Thursday 12th March

13:20
OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW 34.49
BAMBINO FEVER 25.35
KINGSTON QUEEN 12.23
WHITE NOISE 9.99
LA CONQUIERE 8.66
DIAMOND DU BERLAIS 7.54
PLACE DE LA NATION 5.84
BLUE VELVET 4.60
FUTURE PROSPECT 3.53
JACKIE HOBBS 3.19
AL FONCE 2.74
MANGANESE 2.61
MILLE ET UNE VIES 2.38
SCAVENGERS REIGN 1.71
CHARME DE FAUST 1.63
CARRIGMOORNASPRUCE 1.06
AMEN KATE 0.88
ECHOING SILENCE 0.86
ST IRENE 0.42
LOUVE D’IRLANDE 0.33
CHOSEN COMRADE 0.32
FULL OF LIFE 0.32

14:00
SIXMILEBRIDGE 40.01
THE BLUESMAN 21.09
STENCIL 11.72
WESTERN KNIGHT 9.11
GOLD DANCER 7.05
SLADE STEEL 6.00
JORDANS CROSS 5.35
MEETMEBYTHESEA 4.34
REGENT’S STROLL 3.59
KDEUX SAINT FRAY 2.79
MOON ROCKET 1.96
INTENSE APPROACH 1.69
WINGMEN 1.13
KING ALEXANDER 1.09
KISS WILL 0.79
DR EGGMAN 0.52
WHERE’S MY JET 0.49
BEN SOLO 0.48
OL MAN DINGLE 0.40

14:40
JADE DE GRUGY 46.65
FEET OF A DANCER 34.85
WODHOOH 22.09
DREAM ON BABY 9.63
JETARA 5.59
TAKE NO CHANCES 2.24
SUNSET MARQUESA 0.61

15:20
MA SHANTOU 30.76
TEAHUPOO 25.24
IMPOSE TOI 18.06
BALLYBURN 12.68
HOME BY THE LEE 7.25
BOB OLINGER 4.95
DODDIETHEGREAT 1.89
KABRAL DU MATHAN 1.27
HEWICK 0.96
HONESTY POLICY 0.53
GWENNIE MAY BOY 0.39

16:00
FACT TO FILE 66.78
JONBON 36.48
IMPAIRE ET PASSE 19.48
MATATA 7.96
BANBRIDGE 4.65
CROKE PARK 1.93
MASTER CHEWY 1.30
JPR ONE 1.20
HEART WOOD 0.56

16:40
STAFFORDSHIRE KNOT 48.64
GOWEL ROAD 27.40
ABSOLUTELY DOYEN 15.57
LAVIDA ADIVA 9.02
ONEWAYWEST 5.26
ACE OF SPADES 3.49
CHAMPAGNE CHIC 2.70
RED DIRT ROAD 1.87
MELBOURNE SHAMROCK 1.85
C’EST DIFFERENT 1.79
BOLD ENDEAVOUR 1.39
IKARAK 1.16
YEAH MAN 1.16
IDY WOOD 0.58
MINELLA EMPEROR 0.57
KIKIJO 0.56
SUPREMELY WEST 0.56
MINELLA SIXO 0.55
ELECTRIC MASON 0.51
CLASSIC KING 0.50
LETOS 0.48
IDEM 0.46
DUKE SILVER 0.44
IKE SPORT 0.44

17:20
PRENDS GARDE A TOI 27.65
HUNG JURY 16.17
THE ENABLER 13.75
JERIKO DU REPONET 9.47
IL RIDOTO 6.68
GERICAULT ROQUE 5.00
KIM ROQUE 3.47
DAILY PRESENT 2.58
MONBEG GENIUS 1.90
GLENGOULY 1.78
ROAD TO HOME 1.23
UNCLE BERT 1.22
HERAKLES WESTWOOD 1.19
KING’S THRESHOLD 0.98
INSURRECTION 0.55
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT 0.50
EXCELLO 0.50
LORD ACCORD 0.49
SANDOR CLEGANE 0.48
WATERFORD WHISPERS 0.48
CAVE COURT 0.48
NO TIME TO WAIT 0.42
ASK BREWSTER 0.39
OLYMPIC MAN 0.33

Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) at 4:00 pm on Wednesday, 11th March 2026

The 12-Year Trends: Queen Mother Champion Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9. (10-year-olds and older have a very poor record).
Grade 1 Success: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Grade 1 chase.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their previous start.
Cheltenham Factor: 9 of the last 12 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Official Rating: Almost every winner in the last decade has been rated 164 or higher.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Majborough

The Verdict: By 2026, this horse reaches the “Golden Age” of 7. His massive Neural Rating of 170.8 suggests he has the “engine” required to match the 164+ trend standard. As a former high-class juvenile, he possesses the natural speed for a two-mile chase on Good to Soft ground. If he has translated his hurdles class to fences, he is the clear trend-fit and class standout.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Il Etait Temps

The Verdict: A Willie Mullins-trained runner who is a proven Grade 1 winner over fences. At 8 years old in 2026, he is in his prime. He handles Good to Soft ground perfectly and is a “Cheltenham regular,” ticking the course-experience box. His high NR marks him as the primary danger to the favorite.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. L’Eau Du Sud

The Verdict: Represents the Dan Skelton stable, which excels in these high-tempo races. While often viewed as a handicap specialist, his NR of 111.7 indicates he has stepped up significantly into the elite bracket. He has the speed for two miles and historically performs best on “Good to Soft.”
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Found A Fifty

The Verdict: A consistent Grade 1 performer for Gordon Elliott. At age 9, he is at the upper limit of the preferred age trend but remains a formidable opponent. He is an exceptionally strong traveller, a trait essential for the Champion Chase, though his NR suggests he may find one or two of the younger “speedsters” too quick at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Captain Guinness

The Verdict: The 2024 winner of this race. However, by 2026, he is an 11-year-old. This is a significant trend negative, as older horses rarely win this race (Special Tiara being a rare outlier). While his class is undeniable, trends suggest his peak championship years are behind him.
Trend Score: 5/10

6. Libberty Hunter

The Verdict: A very capable chaser but his rating suggests he sits in the “Grade 2/High-end Handicap” bracket rather than the elite Grade 1 tier required to win a Champion Chase.
Trend Score: 4/10

7. Saint Segal

The Verdict: Similar to Libberty Hunter, he lacks the Grade 1 winning profile that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed. He is a fine jumper but likely lacks the raw speed for this level.
Trend Score: 4/10

8. Quilixios (NR: 54.7) / Brookie (NR: 54.7)

The Verdict: Both fall well below the class threshold. Quilixios is a former Triumph Hurdle winner, but his recent chase form and low NR suggest he is not the force he once was.
Trend Score: 2/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Majborough (The Class Standout)
2. Il Etait Temps (The Mullins/Trend Specialist)
3. L’Eau Du Sud (The Progressive Challenger)
4. Found A Fifty (The Reliable Veteran)

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Stats

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Stats

Key 12-Year Trends: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8. Only one 6-year-old has won in that period.
Last Time Out: 10 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their most recent start.
Class: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 150+ (Official Rating). High Neural (NR) numbers in your data correlate well here.
Stamina: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won over at least 2 miles and 7 furlongs.
Festival Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival (usually in the Albert Bartlett or Baring Bingham hurdles).

Horse Analysis & Order of Preference

1. ROMEO COOLIO

The Verdict: By 2026, he fits the peak age profile (7yo). He carries the highest Neural Rating in the field, suggesting a class edge that aligns with the trend of 150+ rated winners. His previous high-level hurdle form at the Festival makes him the prototypical Brown Advisory winner.
Trend Fit: Excellent.

2. KAID D’AUTHIE

The Verdict: A strong second preference. His NR of 107.8 marks him as a clear “Grade 1” type. These French-bred stayers often excel on Good to Soft ground. If he arrives here following a win or a second-place finish, he ticks the “Last Time Out” trend.
Trend Fit: Very Strong.

3. FINAL DEMAND

The Verdict: Very consistent profile. His high Neural Rating indicates he has the engine required for this gruelling 3-mile test. He fits the trend of being a “recognised” name with solid graded form.
Trend Fit: High.

4. OSCARS BROTHER

The Verdict: Often these “Brother” or “Boy” horses from staying families are specifically campaigned for this race. His rating is solid, and he represents the type of progressive novice chaser that Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins targets for this event.
Trend Fit: Good.

5. WENDIGO

The Verdict: A solid mid-range contender. While his rating is lower than the top three, he fits the physical profile of a staying chaser. He would need a career-best performance to win, but he is a high-probability placer.
Trend Fit: Moderate.

6. WESTERN FOLD

The Verdict: Likely to handle the Good to Soft conditions well. The “Westerner” progeny usually possess the stamina for 3 miles, though his NR suggests he may lack the “gears” of a Romeo Coolio in the closing stages.
Trend Fit: Moderate.

7. PREDATORS GOLD

The Verdict: His rating in this specific set is lower than expected, but historically this horse has high-class staying form. If the ground remains Good to Soft rather than Soft/Heavy, he may find one or two others slightly quicker.
Trend Fit: Fair.

8. KITZBUHEL

The Verdict: Similar profile to Western Fold. Solid, but perhaps lacks the Grade 1 “X-factor” that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Fit: Fair.

9. SALVER

The Verdict: Better known as a hurdler; his transition to a 3-mile chase is the question mark. Trends suggest winners of this race are almost always “chase first” types by the time they reach March.
Trend Fit: Low.

10. ARGENTO BOY

The Verdict: Too low on the Neural Ratings to suggest a win in a Grade 1 of this stature. He fails the “Class” trend which requires a high level of previous achievement.
Trend Fit: Poor.

Summary of Final Preference

1. Romeo Coolio
2. Kaid D’Authie
3. Final Demand
4. Oscars Brother
5. Wendigo