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Punchestown Top Rated Horses Wednesday 29th April

Punchestown Top Rated Horses Wednesday 29th April

1
14:30

28 EL CHAMPO 159.3
7 LONG BRANCH 122.3
2 SIR ALLEN 101.8
17 FALCON EIGHT 67.3
8 RADIATOR SPRINGS 62.2
6 STRAIGHT JOHN 61.3
25 JACOVEC CAVERN 59.7
23 BETTER TIMES 50.8
12 CLOONAINRA 49.7
9 THANKSFORTHEHELP 49.3
1 AGUELLID 45.0
10 TOLL STONE 42.3
20 KATIE DANIELS 41.0
3 GOD OF THUNDER 39.0
24 AUREA FORTUNA 37.7
26 MI LUCKY CAILIN 38.7
11 MINELLA SUPREME 35.5
22 SOPELANA 36.0
27 MOON MISSION 36.7
14 JOLIE JEWEL 35.3
4 HITAK 30.8
5 MISS MANZOR 30.8
21 CLAUDE 31.3
13 KAMINO BELLO 30.2
15 MINELLA POST 24.3
16 RYAN’S SON 29.3
18 GARRYBELLO 25.3
19 KALANISI FLASH 25.3

2
15:05

3 VITORIO PIEL 148.5
6 EAGLE’S QUEST 68.2
7 GREY JUDE 66.2
4 IFALLGOESWELL 62.8
8 RAISE YOU UP 61.3
15 SIMPLY NATURAL 58.0
14 THE FIRST TURN 55.2
12 DUNLEER CRYSTAL 50.0
10 DE JOUR EN JOUR 49.3
2 LOS BLANCO 48.2
11 ALL NIGHT REVIVAL 44.7
5 GREEN ANGEL 42.7
1 L’ EVANGELISTE 40.3
13 STRANGE CURRENCY 38.3
9 GREEN CHEF 32.2

3
15:40

10 QUINTA DO LAGO 99.7
1 BUNTING 97.7
6 BEGORRA MAN 78.0
5 SOIR DE GARDE 67.0
4 RISKAWAY 66.0
3 MISTER PESSIMISTIC 62.2
2 LE GRAND PEINTURE 52.7
8 TINTO DE VERANO 50.2
7 MILAN FORTH 49.5
9 MINELLA BOSS 48.3

4
16:15

1 DOCTOR STEINBERG 97.7
14 ZANOOSH 91.7
13 THE PASSING WIFE 84.7
5 FRUIT DE MER 71.5
11 LOVE ME TENDER 60.3
12 SPINNINGAYARN 54.0
9 KAZANSKY 52.3
10 LE FRIMEUR 51.8
6 GENEROUS RISK 47.3
7 HIPOP DE LOIRE 47.2
8 I STARTED A JOKE 45.5
4 FRANKIE JOHN 45.0
3 ESPRESSO MILAN 40.3
2 DREAM ON MICK 37.5

5
16:50

8 THE MOURNE RAMBLER 106.0
1 BARNAHASH PRINCE 92.7
2 BOYCETOWN 76.8
3 DROMARD 64.3
5 LOW KICK 62.7
10 WITH NOLIMIT 61.5
9 THE WAGER 60.5
4 LOVE SIGN D’AUNOU 58.2
6 OF LAND AND SEA 51.3
7 THE IRISH AVATAR 50.8

6
17:25

13 KILBARRY SAINT 134.3
3 CLASSIC GETAWAY 84.7
4 DEE CAPO 77.0
1 DOWN MEMORY LANE 61.7
5 KING ALEXANDER 60.0
12 DREAL DEAL 59.3
7 KARIA DES BLAISES 50.8
14 MAGIC MCCOLGAN 46.2
2 JESSE EVANS 43.7
6 RIAAN 42.0
10 NOUVOTIC 38.5
8 CONYERS HILL 37.3
9 MIDNIGHT IT IS 35.0
11 WHERE’S MY JET 34.5

7
18:05

3 GAELIC WARRIOR 207.0
2 FACT TO FILE 111.0
1 CHAMP KIELY 86.3
4 GRANGECLARE WEST 69.5
5 INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN 63.3

8
18:35

2 BELLADABALL 112.3
14 WONDERFUL EVERYDAY 78.2
5 EVEN THO 73.2
6 GLENS ANTHEM 63.7
11 SOME PRETENDER 58.0
8 KILTYBO 54.7
12 TINTARA 54.0
4 CELESTIAL TUNE 53.3
10 MAXIMILLIAN LADY 52.7
3 BORN BELIEVING 51.7
15 COOLE CAFE 52.3
9 LATOSCA DU HOUX 44.0
1 AL ARRIVEE 42.5
16 SAPPHIRE JEWEL 36.2
7 GOULMICHETTE 34.8
13 TREADONMYDREAMS 30.0

Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) at 4:00 pm on Wednesday, 11th March 2026

The 12-Year Trends: Queen Mother Champion Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9. (10-year-olds and older have a very poor record).
Grade 1 Success: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Grade 1 chase.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their previous start.
Cheltenham Factor: 9 of the last 12 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Official Rating: Almost every winner in the last decade has been rated 164 or higher.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Majborough

The Verdict: By 2026, this horse reaches the “Golden Age” of 7. His massive Neural Rating of 170.8 suggests he has the “engine” required to match the 164+ trend standard. As a former high-class juvenile, he possesses the natural speed for a two-mile chase on Good to Soft ground. If he has translated his hurdles class to fences, he is the clear trend-fit and class standout.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Il Etait Temps

The Verdict: A Willie Mullins-trained runner who is a proven Grade 1 winner over fences. At 8 years old in 2026, he is in his prime. He handles Good to Soft ground perfectly and is a “Cheltenham regular,” ticking the course-experience box. His high NR marks him as the primary danger to the favorite.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. L’Eau Du Sud

The Verdict: Represents the Dan Skelton stable, which excels in these high-tempo races. While often viewed as a handicap specialist, his NR of 111.7 indicates he has stepped up significantly into the elite bracket. He has the speed for two miles and historically performs best on “Good to Soft.”
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Found A Fifty

The Verdict: A consistent Grade 1 performer for Gordon Elliott. At age 9, he is at the upper limit of the preferred age trend but remains a formidable opponent. He is an exceptionally strong traveller, a trait essential for the Champion Chase, though his NR suggests he may find one or two of the younger “speedsters” too quick at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Captain Guinness

The Verdict: The 2024 winner of this race. However, by 2026, he is an 11-year-old. This is a significant trend negative, as older horses rarely win this race (Special Tiara being a rare outlier). While his class is undeniable, trends suggest his peak championship years are behind him.
Trend Score: 5/10

6. Libberty Hunter

The Verdict: A very capable chaser but his rating suggests he sits in the “Grade 2/High-end Handicap” bracket rather than the elite Grade 1 tier required to win a Champion Chase.
Trend Score: 4/10

7. Saint Segal

The Verdict: Similar to Libberty Hunter, he lacks the Grade 1 winning profile that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed. He is a fine jumper but likely lacks the raw speed for this level.
Trend Score: 4/10

8. Quilixios (NR: 54.7) / Brookie (NR: 54.7)

The Verdict: Both fall well below the class threshold. Quilixios is a former Triumph Hurdle winner, but his recent chase form and low NR suggest he is not the force he once was.
Trend Score: 2/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Majborough (The Class Standout)
2. Il Etait Temps (The Mullins/Trend Specialist)
3. L’Eau Du Sud (The Progressive Challenger)
4. Found A Fifty (The Reliable Veteran)

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Stats

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Stats

Key 12-Year Trends: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 or 8. Only one 6-year-old has won in that period.
Last Time Out: 10 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their most recent start.
Class: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 150+ (Official Rating). High Neural (NR) numbers in your data correlate well here.
Stamina: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won over at least 2 miles and 7 furlongs.
Festival Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival (usually in the Albert Bartlett or Baring Bingham hurdles).

Horse Analysis & Order of Preference

1. ROMEO COOLIO

The Verdict: By 2026, he fits the peak age profile (7yo). He carries the highest Neural Rating in the field, suggesting a class edge that aligns with the trend of 150+ rated winners. His previous high-level hurdle form at the Festival makes him the prototypical Brown Advisory winner.
Trend Fit: Excellent.

2. KAID D’AUTHIE

The Verdict: A strong second preference. His NR of 107.8 marks him as a clear “Grade 1” type. These French-bred stayers often excel on Good to Soft ground. If he arrives here following a win or a second-place finish, he ticks the “Last Time Out” trend.
Trend Fit: Very Strong.

3. FINAL DEMAND

The Verdict: Very consistent profile. His high Neural Rating indicates he has the engine required for this gruelling 3-mile test. He fits the trend of being a “recognised” name with solid graded form.
Trend Fit: High.

4. OSCARS BROTHER

The Verdict: Often these “Brother” or “Boy” horses from staying families are specifically campaigned for this race. His rating is solid, and he represents the type of progressive novice chaser that Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins targets for this event.
Trend Fit: Good.

5. WENDIGO

The Verdict: A solid mid-range contender. While his rating is lower than the top three, he fits the physical profile of a staying chaser. He would need a career-best performance to win, but he is a high-probability placer.
Trend Fit: Moderate.

6. WESTERN FOLD

The Verdict: Likely to handle the Good to Soft conditions well. The “Westerner” progeny usually possess the stamina for 3 miles, though his NR suggests he may lack the “gears” of a Romeo Coolio in the closing stages.
Trend Fit: Moderate.

7. PREDATORS GOLD

The Verdict: His rating in this specific set is lower than expected, but historically this horse has high-class staying form. If the ground remains Good to Soft rather than Soft/Heavy, he may find one or two others slightly quicker.
Trend Fit: Fair.

8. KITZBUHEL

The Verdict: Similar profile to Western Fold. Solid, but perhaps lacks the Grade 1 “X-factor” that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Fit: Fair.

9. SALVER

The Verdict: Better known as a hurdler; his transition to a 3-mile chase is the question mark. Trends suggest winners of this race are almost always “chase first” types by the time they reach March.
Trend Fit: Low.

10. ARGENTO BOY

The Verdict: Too low on the Neural Ratings to suggest a win in a Grade 1 of this stature. He fails the “Class” trend which requires a high level of previous achievement.
Trend Fit: Poor.

Summary of Final Preference

1. Romeo Coolio
2. Kaid D’Authie
3. Final Demand
4. Oscars Brother
5. Wendigo

Turners Novices Hurdle Stats

Turners Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1), scheduled for 1.20pm on Wednesday, 11th March 2026.

The Stats That Matter: 12-Year Trends

Age Profile: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6. Seven-year-olds have a poor recent record (only one win in 25+ years).
Performance: 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their most recent start.
Class & Rating: 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 150+. No winner since 2011 has been rated below 146.
Proven Winners: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Graded novice hurdle.
Market Position: 10 of the last 12 winners were in the first four of the betting.
Irish Dominance: Irish trainers have won 10 of the last 12 renewals. Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 4.
Bumper Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a flat bumper.

Runner Analysis & Preference

1. No Drama This End (Paul Nicholls / Harry Cobden)

The Verdict: The leading British hope and a strong trend-fit. He is a 6-year-old who won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle last time out—breaking the “Challow jinx” established by The New Lion the previous year. He has the required rating (144/156 range) and course experience, having run in the Champion Bumper. He travels like a high-class horse and handles testing ground.
Trend Score: 9/10

2. Ballyfad (Gordon Elliott / Jack Kennedy)

The Verdict: A classic Irish raider who fits the “5-year-old” profile of previous winners like Impaire Et Passe. He was beaten only a short-head in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on heavy ground. His rating of 147 is right where it needs to be for a winner. He is a former point-to-point and bumper winner, checking almost every historical box.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. King Rasko Grey (Willie Mullins / Paul Townend)

The Verdict: Despite being third behind Ballyfad last time, he is the choice of Paul Townend. Willie Mullins’ strike rate in this race (7 wins) makes his first-string runner an automatic contender. He is unexposed, a 6-year-old, and bred to be better over this intermediate trip.
Trend Score: 8/10

4. I’ll Sort That (Declan Queally / D.L. Queally)

The Verdict: The “dark horse” of the race. He has won his last four starts, including a Grade 1 at Naas. He is a 6-year-old with a rating of 142. While he needs to find a few pounds of improvement to reach the 150+ standard, his “won last time out” and “Grade 1 winner” status make him a major threat.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Act Of Innocence (Nicky Henderson / Nico de Boinville)

The Verdict: A very talented 6-year-old who won a Listed race at Huntingdon in style. However, Nicky Henderson’s runners in this specific race have a mixed record compared to his Supreme/Triumph success. He may prefer slightly better ground, but his class is undeniable.
Trend Score: 6/10

6. Saint Baco (Willie Mullins / Sean O’Keeffe)

The Verdict: Another Mullins 5-year-old. He was disappointing behind I’ll Sort That last time, which violates the “top 2 last time out” trend. However, Mullins horses often improve significantly between February and March. He is a speculative choice for those looking for a bigger price.
Trend Score: 5/10

Final Selection Summary

1. No Drama This End – The professional choice; handles the conditions and the track.
2. Ballyfad – The best of the Irish form on heavy ground.
3. King Rasko Grey – Townend’s choice from the dominant stable.
4. I’ll Sort That – Prolific winner who shouldn’t be underestimated.

Going Declaration: Currently Good to Soft. This heavily favours Ballyfad and No Drama This End, both of whom have produced their best Racing Post Ratings on deep ground.