A study of the Equine Injury Database has shown that in 2021 and 2022, musculoskeletal fatalities did not occur at a statistically-significant higher rate over wet tracks as compared to dry tracks, on either dirt or turf. The Jockey Club released the study data, analyzed by Dr. Euan Bennet and Professor Tim Parkin, this week.
The following table represents the incidence of all musculoskeletal fatalities within three days of racing on dirt surfaces, separated by the track condition as listed in the Equine Injury Database. The data does not include sudden deaths.
Condition Starts Fatalities Fatalities Per 1,000 starts
Fast 308,954 419 1.36
Frozen 29 0 0.00
Good 22,147 38 1.72
Heavy 95 0 0.00
Muddy 17,936 22 1.23
Sloppy 25,085 36 1.44
Slow 58 0 0.00
Wet Fast 2,541 3 1.18
The statistical analysis for the years 2021 and 2022 did not identify a significant difference between fatalities over wet tracks versus fast tracks; however, that could be because the sample size is too small.
Professor Parkin explained: “Although on the face of it some of the calculated /1000 rates do look to be somewhat different, the key is that for many, in particular those with lower rates the number of fatalities (and starts) is comparatively small. This means that the statistical analysis does not have sufficient power to be confident that there truly is a difference.
“At the extreme if we look at Wet Fast – if we added just one more fatal injury to that category the risk would rise from 1.18 (something on the face of it well below Good) to 1.57 (something on the face of it well above Good).
“The chi square statistic takes account of the sample size for both groups being compared and if one is significantly smaller than the other, the uncertainty around the estimate for that one group will often result in a non-statistically significant result, simply based on that high degree of uncertainty around the rate for the smaller sample.”
The Jockey Club released the study on Wednesday via the following release:
A link to an analysis of racing fatalities based on surface and track conditions for 2021 and 2022 has been added to the Equine Injury Database (EID) webpage. Additional statistics will be added to the EID webpage as they become available. If you have inquiries about the Equine Injury Database, please contact Shannon Luce, director of communications, The Jockey Club, at sluce@jockeyclub.com or 859.224.2716.
The Equine Injury Database, conceived at the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation's first Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit, was launched by The Jockey Club in July 2008 and seeks to identify the frequencies, types, and outcomes of racing injuries using a standardized format that generates valid statistics, identifies markers for horses at increased risk of injury, and serves as a data source for research directed at improving safety and preventing injuries.
The Jockey Club, founded in 1894 and dedicated to the improvement of Thoroughbred breeding and racing, is the breed registry for North American Thoroughbreds. In fulfillment of its mission, The Jockey Club, directly or through subsidiaries, provides support and leadership on a wide range of important industry initiatives, and it serves the information and technology needs of owners, breeders, media, fans and farms. It is the sole funding source for America's Best Racing, the broad-based fan development initiative for Thoroughbred racing. You can follow America's Best Racing at americasbestracing.net. Additional information is available at jockeyclub.com.
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