Few positions in the horse racing industry are under more pressure than a foal from the first crop of a commercial sire.
From the womb, every aspect of their value and ability is measured to exhaustion in an attempt to deduce whether their sire stacks up within their own hierarchy of rookies, and how they'll project into future seasons. Buyers work themselves into a frenzy trying to secure first-croppers during their pioneering trips through each auction season, and most of those sires and their foals will never see prices as lofty again.
Potential is an incredible marketing tool, and until their foals reach racing age and remove the veil on what they can really do, the two classes of sires we'll look at this week are built almost entirely on foundations of potential.
There are plenty of semi-reliable indicators of future success at stud – race record, conformation, pedigree, early reviews and returns on first foals – but the truth is, we're all flying blind until the racetrack proves them out, and even that doesn't always determine a sire's final destination.
This can be a risky time for breeders to dive in on a stallion, but the reward can be great, too. If a stallion flops early, those follow-up breeders are stuck holding the bag on a young horse whose commercial value has deflated like a balloon. If he's a hit, though, those believers during the lean years are in the right place at the right time with coveted names in the catalog when demand becomes sky-high. Fortune favors the bold.
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And now, without further ado…
The Freshman: A freshman sire of 2-year-olds in 2024.
First Team: Volatile
Gr. or ro. h., 2016, Violence x Melody Lady, by Unbridled's Song
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY, $15,000
If a horse stands for under $20,000 in his debut year at stud and he gets a seven-figure yearling from his first crop, chances are good he'll have a spot waiting for him on the All-Value Sire Team at the end of the year. After finishing as the Second Team Sprinter on last year's team based on his weanlings alone, Volatile took it up a notch in 2023, and his placing reflects that.
Volatile became one of two rookie sires with a seven-figure offering at this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale when Mike Rutherford went to $1.15 million for Hip 215, a filly out of Grade 1 winner Love and Pride whose third dam is 2006 Broodmare of the Year Cara Rafaela.
That was obviously a best-of-the-best-case scenario, but that filly was far from the only Volatile yearling that buyers and sale organizers coveted. His 2023 median yearling sale price of $72,000 was the highest of any North American stallion standing for $20,000 or less, and his four horses cataloged in Book 1 of this year's Keeneland September sale was the most of any first-crop stallion at the $20,000-and-below price level. Only three other rookie stallions had more entries in the elite Book 1 of the Keeneland September sale.
I've liked what I've seen from the Volatiles that I've inspected at the sales so far. Volatile is himself a little stockier and stronger than his pedigree would suggest (by the leggy Violence, out of an Unbridled's Song mare), and the best of his sons and daughters have inherited a lot of that body type.
The middle-book types got a little stretchier, but honestly, that might not be a bad thing. Volatile's family and his own race record are both sprint-heavy, so if a lighter frame can help his runners better get two turns and expand his repertoire, all the better.
It's fair to look at Volatile's race record and wonder if he can get his 2-year-olds out fast enough to have a say in the 2024 freshman sire race. He didn't begin his racing career until July of his 3-year-old season, and he didn't enter stakes company until the early summer of his 4-year-old campaign.
I'm not too concerned. His full-sister Buy Sell Hold won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes, which is about as early on the 2-year-old stakes calendar as it gets. Dam Melody Lady was also a winner at two and she picked up a stakes victory in January of her 3-year-old season. Finally, Violence is the sire of Forte, the defending champion 2-year-old male.
Volatile is himself a solidly-built horse – not to the point of bulkiness, but he's got muscle to spare – and with that body type and sprinting style being passed on to his foals, I expect they'll be active and popular during the 2-year-old sales once they go under the stopwatch at the under-tack shows.
The pipeline is solid for Volatile, as well, with nearly 200 registered weanlings and yearlings. He also saw an increase of eight mares to his book in 2023, going up from 157 mares in 2022 to 165 this year.
The commercial market has set a high ceiling for a stallion standing for under $20,000, and while another seven-figure horse is probably to much to expect during the upcoming 2-year-old season, I expect Volatile's first juveniles to forge the path well. If they can even get close to keeping up with that pace once they hit the racetrack, Volatile's days as a horse eligible for the All-Value Sire Team might be numbered.
Second Team: Vekoma
Ch. h., 2016, Candy Ride x Mona de Momma, by Speightstown
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $15,000
Wherever Vekoma goes, the industry has followed. After being visited by a whopping 222 mares in his debut book, fourth-most in North America, Vekoma was in the upper tier of first-crop sires by both median weanling and yearling sale price. His yearling median of $60,000 was third-best among qualifying stallions in this particular division, and he had a colt finish with the second-highest price of the day during session five of this year's Keeneland September sale, hammering for $775,000.
In a business quick to drop stallions quickly for the next shiny new toy, breeders and buyers have stuck around for Vekoma. His pipeline is packed, with 340 combined registered yearlings and weanlings, and his book of mares in 2023 grew to 212, just missing his first year total. Very few sires accomplish that in the doldrum years.
His median weanling price held pretty steady, as well, with his second crop finishing at $52,500 after his first class brought a median of $75,000. Every meaningful commercial sire experienced a dropoff in median from their second-crop yearlings, but Vekoma absorbed the blow better than any of his contemporaries. In fact, his weanling median for 2023 was the highest of any horse in this category.
The freshman sire race can become a war of attrition, and the horse with the most bodies to throw at it is often in the driver's seat to compile the earnings necessary to finish high on the list. Vekoma has a lot of things going for him to be a top freshman sire in 2024, and people have already lined up to take advantage if he hits. If you believe in him, this might be one of your last chances to get him at this price.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.The Prospect: A stallion whose first foals are weanlings or yearlings of 2024. He has foals on the ground (or will soon), but none yet of racing age.
First Team: Mandaloun
B. h., 2018, Into Mischief x Brooch, by Empire Maker
Standing at Juddmonte Farms, KY, $20,000
The market knows what it wants, and right now, that's Into Mischief or as close to him as it can get.
That point was driven home this spring when Mandaloun covered 211 mares, which was the 11th most in North America, and the most by a son of Into Mischief.
For the breeders who didn't get into that first book, Mandaloun was the leading first-year covering sire that qualified for this division with a median sale price of $65,000 from 15 mares sold. Topping that list was Mamie Van D, a Curlin mare from the family of Tapit, who hammered for $350,000.
So, what separates Mandaloun from the seemingly-required son of Into Mischief that stands at practically every major stud farm in Kentucky?
Let's start with what's similar. Looking at pictures of Mandaloun and Into Mischief side-to-side reveal two horses that look an awful lot alike. Both have athletic shoulders that stop short of the bulky muscling commonly seen from a Storm Cat-line stallion, but the topline leading into the rump is much more in line with the Storm Cat influence. I expect Mandaloun to fall even more in line with that silhouette as he continues to settle in to life at stud.
Both father and son have length in the neck and down the middle. However, that scope is also where the two start to differ.
Mandaloun has an extra dash of athleticism and scope that I think comes from the female family and broodmare sire Empire Maker. A Juddmonte homebred, Mandaloun has a lot of European influence on his page, starting with his dam Brooch, who was a multiple group stakes winner in Ireland.
The European background manifests itself most clearly, though, in Mandaloun's feet, which are solid and wide enough to suggest he could get you a decent turf horse to complement his Grade 1-winning dirt resume and the top side of his pedigree.
Mandaloun's most notable season on the racetrack obviously came at age three, and his best races were going long, but for breeders wondering if he can put a dent in the freshman sire race when that time comes, it's important to remember he went unbeaten as a 2-year-old. Though neither were stakes races, he beat some serious horses in those heats, including the likes of future Grade 1 winner Americanrevolution in his debut. Into Mischief's record as a sire of fast-starting sires speaks for itself, as well.
With such a big initial group of mares, Mandaloun is going to be given every chance to succeed with his freshman crop once those foals hit the ground. The competition for sons of Into Mischief at stud gets deeper with each passing year, but Mandaloun is well-positioned to land in the upper echelon.
Second Team: Speaker's Corner
B. h., 2018, Street Sense x Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini
Standing at Darley, KY, $17,500
Do you miss Bernardini? I know I do. Despite being a son of Street Sense, when I look at Speaker's Corner, I see his broodmare sire, the late Darley staple.
The shoulder on Speaker's Corner, the way he holds his head, and his topline all look consistent with Bernardini's type, by my eye. He's a much finer, racier model than Maxfield, a fellow son of Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare on the Darley roster, and I see that as a boon for Speaker's Corner, making him available to a wide variety of physical types.
Buyers seem to agree, so far. Speaker's Corner was second to Mandaloun among qualifying first-crop covering value sires by median mare sale price at $51,000. Darley doesn't tend to go crazy with stuffing their stallion's books, so an initial class of 149 mares should be plenty to launch his stud career.
I'll be interested to see where Speaker's Corner's type lands once his runners hit the track. Despite being by a two-turn sire in Street Sense, and out of a mare by the classic winner Bernardini, Speaker's Corner did his best work from seven furlongs to a mile. He has Grade 1 winners on the dirt on his page, along with winners of the French and Irish 2000 Guineas.
Speaker's Corner offers breeders a variety of options for mares to send that could end up working, and at a time when resumes are being built, having more irons in the fire is rarely a bad thing.
Come back next week for the final installment of the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team, where we look at value stallions about to hit the prime of their careers, and regional standouts.
The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees360: The Freshman And The Prospect appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
