Week in Review | Horse Racing Free Tips

Rich Strike Is For Real, And Other Thoughts

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

Reflections on an interesting weekend of racing:

(*) No, Rich Strike did not win the GII Lukas Classic S. at Churchill Downs. A very game Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) had a second surge and came back just before the wire to nip him by a head. But not only was there no shame in losing, this was the best race of Rich Strike's career-better, yes, the GI Kentucky Derby-and finally put to rest that he was a one-race wonder who just got lucky on the first Saturday in May.

There was plenty of reason to doubt this horse after the Derby. He was 80-1, probably should have been even higher, and benefitted from a massive pace meltdown and a perfect trip under the unheralded rider Sonny Leon. It looked like a fluke and even more so when he never threatened in the GI Belmont S. and finished sixth, beaten 13 1/4 lengths.

He came back in the GI Travers S. and certainly didn't embarrass himself, running fourth behind the immensely talented divisional leader Epicenter (Not This Time). But fourth is not first and he lost by 5 ½ lengths.

Trainer Eric Reed then made the decision to skip the GI Pennsylvania Derby and take on older horses in the Lukas Classic. He didn't exactly find an easy spot. With Hod Rod Charlie, Happy Saver (Super Saver) and Art Collector (Bernardini), the race was loaded. Considering the quality of the field and that the race was for 3-year-olds and up, you can make the argument that the race was a tougher assignment than the Derby. And he ran his heart out, losing to an accomplished and tenacious Grade I winning 4-year-old who has bankrolled more than $5.5 million.

“He hooked the toughest horses he has ever ran against and ran on the outside the whole way,” Reed said after the race. “Look how far he has come since May. I can only imagine what it's going to be like next year.”

Good point: this colt is obviously improving and should be an outstanding 4-year-old.

It's also worth noting that he was much closer to the pace than normal in the race Saturday at Churchill. He was never further back than fourth and never more than 2 ½ lengths off the lead. That should serve him well as trying to win races from 15 lengths off the pace is never an easy way to go.

Reed hasn't said yet if Rich Strike will go next in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. The other option is the GI Clark S. on Nov. 25. Considering the depth of the Classic and the presence of a certain horse named Flightline (Tapit) and Rich Strike's affinity for the Churchill surface the Clark looks like the better option. Either way, it looks like he will show up and be competitive. He's not Flightline, he may not be Epicenter, but he is what he is–a very good horse and a deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby.

(*) The Lukas Classic was not without controversy. Aboard Rich Strike, Sonny Leon appeared to be leaning into Tyler Gaffalione on Hot Rod Charlie and elbowing him as the two horses neared the wire. Retired jockey and TV analyst Richard Migliore took to Twitter to criticize Leon and claim that his actions cost Rich Strike the race.

“After watching the Lukas classic numerous times @SONNYLEON1 cost Rich Strike the win by pulling him over to Hot Rod Charlie and putting his elbow into @Tyler_Gaff instead of going forward and driving to the wire,” he tweeted. “When does this BS stop? It's horse racing not jockey racing. Enough.”

NYRA linemaker David Aragona also had his say on Twitter.”As much as I'd like to praise how well Rich Strike ran today, this is pretty bad stuff from the jock,” he wrote. “Obviously crossing a line. A suspension is warranted for these kind of shenanigans.

Others on Twitter were kinder, arguing that Leon's saddle slipped and that was what caused him to lean into Gaffalione, which, the head-on replay shows, he clearly did.

(*) Maybe the GI Woodward S. was nothing more than a paid public workout for Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and all he needed to do was get around the racetrack. He did in fact het the job done. But with his reputation and his odds of 1-20 weren't you expecting more than a 1 1/4-length win and a 97 Beyer figure? There was even a moment when it looked like eventual runner-up Law Professor (Constitution) was going to beat and post what would have been a colossal upset.Take nothing away from Life Is Good. He's won three Grade I races this year and if not for Flightline would be the favorite for the Horse of the Year title. But if he is going to be in competitive in the Classic he will need to run much better than he did Saturday.

(*) The GI Awesome Again S. was a chance to enhance Flightline's reputation, if such a thing is possible. The race included, in Country Grammer (Tonalist), Royal Ship (Brz) and Express Train (Union Rags), the horses who were second, third and fourth when Flightline turned in his electrifying performance in the GI Pacific Classic. Had that group come back with strong collective efforts in the Awesome Again it would have made Flightiline's race look even better.

It didn't happen.

The race was won by Defunded (Dialed In), who was coming of a sixth-place finish in the GII Pat O'Brien S. Country Grammer was second but was a disappointment at odds of 11-10. Express Train was fourth and Royal Ship was sixth. Neither ran well.

This doesn't mean that Flightline isn't a once-in-a-lifetime talent, but it's clear that, beyond him, the older male division in California is a weak one.

(*) Horse racing remains the only gambling game where you can cash a winning bet and feel like a chump. It happened again in the Awesome Again. When the field was loading into the gate Defunded was 8-1. The gate opened, he got out front and, lo and behold, he was 5-1 on the next flash. He paid $12.

Once again, the computer players got fat and happy at the expense of the everyday player who wagered on Defunded thinking they had bet on a horse that would pay in the neighborhood of 8-1. The winners were made to feel like losers. And the problem is not going to go away. The CAW players wager far too much money for any track to refuse their bets.

Fixed odds can't come soon enough, but it looks like industry is in no hurry to at least give them a try. Why? In fact, FanDuel is prepared to offer bets on racing on its sports betting platforms, but with pari-mutuel odds. You think the sports bettor would be OK with betting the Mets at -160 only to be told after the first pitch the odds were really -210? Of course not. It's hard to imagine a marriage of sports betting and racing working without fixed odds.

(*) Chad Brown keeps getting better and better with young dirt horses. When he won the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct with Blazing Sevens (Good Magic), it was his second straight win in the race and his fourth overall. Blazing Seven's sire, Good Magic (Curlin), was second in the 2017 Champagne.

The post Rich Strike Is For Real, And Other Thoughts appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Week In Review: Another Milestone For Kentucky Downs

Another record was set Saturday at Kentucky Downs when $21,065,982 was wagered on the 12-race card. Perhaps even more impressively, Kentucky Downs out-handled Del Mar, where $19,423,928 was bet. Del Mar ran 11 races on Saturday.

That a wagering record was set was hardly a surprise considering that the card at Kentucky Downs was also the best ever offered at the sport's most unique racetrack. There were six graded stakes on the card and five of them were worth $1 million. The average field size was 11, the type of number horseplayers love.

Kentucky Downs is improving every year, but there is a way to make to make it even better. Largely because of the width of the turf course, fields are limited to 12 horses. In many races, there are 16 horses entered in a race, with four on the also-eligible list. For most tracks, limiting the number of starters to 12 wouldn't be an issue. But, according to Kentucky Downs Senior Vice President and General Manager Ted Nicholson, it's not uncommon for as many as 30 horses to enter a race, particularly in maiden races.

If Kentucky Downs does as well as it does limiting the fields to 12 horses, imagine how much more they could handle if allowing 16 horses to race. And why limit things to 16 horses? What's wrong with a 20-horse field, a 22-horse field?

Nicholson said track management is exploring its options relating to field size. It would take widening the course, particularly on the turns.

“Increasing the amount of horses that can run is something that we have talked about, but talks haven't gone that far,” he said. “We've been content with having 16 possibles and scratching down to 12. This is one of those things we probably should consider even more for next year.”

Nicholson added that the track decided to card more maiden races, which almost always have oversubscribed fields, this year. There were four on Saturday's card. It was done so that horsemen with maidens would have a better chance of getting into races rather than being shut out for the entire meet because it has been so difficult to get into those races.

“I'd much rather run a maiden race with 12 than throw up a claiming race that might scratch down to seven or eight,” Nicholson said.

Saratoga Is Growing But Is The Sport?

It was announced last week that the Saratoga meet set still another wagering record with $878,211,963 bet on the meet, a 7.7% increase over what was a record handle in 2021. If the trends continue, we may be only three or four years removed from the meet breaking the $1-billion mark, an astounding number.

But while this is good news for Saratoga and NYRA, the numbers suggest that the handle increases are not a matter of the pie growing but Saratoga taking a bigger slice of the pie. According to Equibase, through August, total handle is up just 0.24% on the year. In August, which includes the bulk of the Saratoga season, wagering was down 0.86%.

It's not just Saratoga. The numbers coming out of the top-tier tracks, particularly the boutique meets, continue to be good. That probably means that customers continue to turn away from the second and third-tier tracks and are focusing their wagering dollars on the very best simulcasting signals.

Problems for the Canadian Triple Crown

For the second year in a row, the winner of the Queen's Plate will not be running in the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. When entries were taken last week for Tuesday's Prince of Wales S. at Fort Erie, the field, as expected, did not include Queen's Plate winner Moira (Ghostzapper). She is being pointed for a Grade I race and trainer Kevin Attard said he is looking at either the GI E.P. Taylor S. at Woodbine or the GI Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup S. at Keeneland. Attard wants to give her a chance in Grade I company to enhance her resume. You can hardly blame him.

The 2021 Plate winner Safe Conduct (Bodemeister) skipped the Prince of Wales because the connections thought me might have a hard time making the transition from Woodbine's Tapeta surface to the Fort Erie dirt track.

Also sitting out the $400,000 Prince of Wales will be Queen's Plate runner-up Hall of Dreams (Lemon Drop Kid) and Queen's Plate beaten favorite Rondure (Oxbow). The 7-5 morning-line favorite in the race is Sir for Sure (Sligo Bay {Ire}), who was third, beaten nine lengths, in the Queen's Plate.

With the race being run three weeks after the Queen's Plate and offering a purse that is modest by today's standards, the Prince of Wales has become a weak link in the Canadian Triple Crown, which also includes the Breeders' S. at Woodbine. As is this case with the U.S. Triple Crown, there is talk that the series needs to be tinkered with. One thought is to bring back a bonus structure for any horse sweeping the three races, something the Ontario tracks have done off and on over the years. Throwing some money at the problem is one possible solution.

As for the Queen's Plate, it appears that is about to undergo a name change with the death of Queen Elizabeth II. Since its inception way back in 1860, the race has been named for the reigning British monarch and has been called the Queen's Plate since 1952. As long as Woodbine sticks to tradition, the race will be renamed the King's Plate in honor of King Charles III.

New Voices in NYRA Announcer's Booth

It was announced last week that Frank Mirahmadi will take over as the announcer at Saratoga next year. It was one of a number of changes when it comes to the NYRA race-callers. John Imbriale has decided to cut back on his duties and will call the races at Belmont only. Chris Griffin, currently the announcer at Parx, will take over the duties at Aqueduct.

Mirahmadi will split his time between two of the top tracks in the sport, Saratoga and Santa Anita. Considering those assignments, his popularity and the quality of his calls, it's easy to argue that Mirahmadi deserves to be recognized as the very best in his profession.

Mirahmadi will be leaving Monmouth at the end of the current meet. If he's amenable to the idea, isn't bringing Larry Collmus back to Monmouth an obvious move?

The post Week In Review: Another Milestone For Kentucky Downs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Was Flightline’s Pacific Classic the Best Performance Since Secretariat’s Belmont?

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

Some more thoughts on Flightline (Tapit) while trying to come up with the right superlative to describe his win in the GI TVG Pacific Classic. Words like spectacular, stunning, sensational just don't seem good enough.

(*) It's tempting to try to compare him to Secretariat. The thing is, that's simply impossible. One has run just five times, the other ran 21 times, won the Triple Crown, was a two-time Horse of the Year and had his picture on the covers of Time, Newsweek and Sports Illustrated. They're not going to make a movie about Flightline. They are different horses from different eras, equine apples and oranges. Is Flightline as good as Secretariat, or the best horse since Secretariat? There's no answer to that question.

But there is a way to look at the two under the same microscope by comparing what were the two best performances of their respective careers. Secretariat's 31-length win in the 1973 GI Belmont S. was not just the greatest performance of his career, it was the best race ever run by any horse at any time in the history of horse racing. No one will ever top what he did that afternoon 49 years ago at Belmont Park.

But you can easily make the argument that Flightline's Pacific Classic was the best performance anyone in the U.S. has seen since. This was no easy assignment. Country Grammer (Tonalist), Royal Ship (Brz) (Midshipman), Express Train (Union Rags) are solid older horses, all Grade I-level horses. And Flightline thrashed them, winning by 19 1/4 lengths despite being eased up in the final sixteenth by jockey Flavien Prat. He ran a 126 Beyer, second best ever given out by the Beyer team and two points behind the 128 given to Ghostzapper (Awesome Again) when he won the GIII Philip H. Iselin H. in 2004.

As announcer Trevor Denman said in his call, “Take a good look at this because this is something you're not going to see too often. Maybe never again.”

It's worth noting that the two races unfolded is nearly identical fashion. Secretariat's rivals were still within striking distance midway down the backstretch as Sham stayed close. Then he spurted away from Sham and, from there, kept widening his margin over his competitors. Flightline did much the same thing. With a half-mile to go in the race, Extra Hope (Shanghai Bobby) was just a length behind Flightline while the main rivals were all within five or six lengths. Then Flightline hit another gear, took off and left some good horses looking like they belonged in the seventh at Finger Lakes.

Then there was the look back. Prat looked over his right shoulder in the stretch as if he couldn't believe he was so far in front. Ron Turcotte did the same, only looking over his left shoulder.

“These races were very similar,” said Dave Johnson, who called the 1973 Belmont for NYRA. “His Pacific Classic was breathtaking and that explosion of speed coming into the far turn was very similar to what Secretariat did. Almost 50 years later, I've never been so impressed by a horse or saw something that sent me back to the Secretariat days.”

(*) There's one thing we have yet to see from Flightline, which is what would he do if ever asked. Prat has never allowed this horse to fire on all cylinders in the stretch. There has been no need to do so. Why not save something for another day?
But could Flightline have won the Pacific Classic by even more than 19 1/4 lengths if Prat hadn't wrapped up on him? It stands to reason that he could have, maybe even by five or six more lengths.

Since the GI Breeders' Cup Classic will likely be his last start this year and maybe in his career, why not just let him roll? Wouldn't it be great to see what Flightline could do if his jockey called on everything he had. Maybe he wins by 31 lengths. What do they have to lose?

(*) The only negative to the Flightline story is that he has only run five times. Part of the reason why is that he had some bad luck (like crashing into a fence and suffering a nasty gash while he was being broken as a yearling) and other minor setbacks along the way. But his light schedule is more about the way top horses are campaigned in the modern era and how what really matters is not what they do on the racetrack but how much they are worth as stallions. You can't blame trainer John Sadler, who mapped out the schedule. His job was to create a very valuable stallion and in that regard he did everything right.

We also don't know how much of a challenge it may be to get Flightline prepared for races. He could be one of those too-fast-for-his-own-good horses, ones that need a lot of time off between races.

But, as racing fans, we should all feel cheated that we have seen so little of this horse. The good news is maybe this story isn't over. Yes, he is worth more as a stallion than as a racehorse, but after the Pacific Classic, Sadler told reporters that the connections have an open mind when it comes to racing him next year as a 5-year-old.

Go for it. Sometimes there's more to the story than the bottom line and owners should feel they have at least some obligation to do what's best for the sport.

(*) Will the Pacific Classic affect the Breeders' Cup plans among some of the other top horses in the older male dirt division? The question is: no matter how good your horse might be, do you really want to take on Flightline in the Classic in what may be an exercise in futility, especially when there is the option of the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile? If I were the connections of Life Is Good (Into Mischief), I'd already have the pre-entry slip filled out for the Dirt Mile.

(*) Remember when there was some concern that Flightline might not get a mile and a quarter? In hindsight, he's obviously better at 10 furlongs than he is in shorter races. No surprise since he is by Tapit.

The post Was Flightline’s Pacific Classic the Best Performance Since Secretariat’s Belmont? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

The Week in Review: McPeek is Different, And That’s Why He’s Successful

The book on training the modern racehorse goes something this: Give them at least six weeks off between races, start them no more than five times a year and never take a chance. It's a book that, apparently, Ken McPeek has never read.

Among top-tier trainers, there is no one like him. He'll run fillies against the boys, run back in a week and he's not afraid to throw a 50-1 bomb into a race or, in the case of 2022 GI Belmont S. winner Sarava (Wild Again), a 70-1 shot. It hurts his winning percentage, which is at 17% on the year. But McPeek doesn't seem to care. His job is to make money for his owners, and he understands that the more chances he gives his horses, the more money his clients are likely to make.

McPeek dipped into his bag of tracks Saturday when he entered Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) in the Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational, a decision that led to a Grade I win in a $1-million race.

The colt had shown a lot of promise early in his career and was among the top contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby after winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Then trained by Brian Lynch, Classic Causeway went off form and finished eleventh in the GI Florida Derby and eleventh again in the GI Kentucky Derby. The owners made a move after the Kentucky Derby and turned the horse over to McPeek. In his first start for McPeek, he ran third in the GIII Ohio Derby, a sign that maybe he was about to come around.

That might have set him up for some of the big dirt stakes coming up for 3-year-olds. Instead, McPeek targeted the Belmont Derby. Never mind that Classic Causeway would have to come back in two weeks or that he had never run on the grass. It was a $1-million race, and McPeek decided to take a shot, something few other trainers would have done with this horse.

It didn't hurt that Classic Causeway was the recipient of a lucky break. Emmanuel (More Than Ready) was not only a top contender in the race but the clear speed. But he was scratched by the stewards for reasons that remain unclear. The New York Gaming Commission tweeted the following: “The Commission Steward has ordered the scratch of Emmanuel, scheduled to run in today's Belmont Derby, due to issues relating to veterinary records. The matter remains under review.”

With Emmanuel out, Classic Causeway was the only speed in the race. Jockey Julien Leparoux picked up on that and put in a heads-up ride. Classic Causeway led by a length after a half-mile had been run in :48 and, from there, they couldn't catch him.

McPeek's aggressive handling of horses was also on display at Horseshoe Indianapolis, where he had a good showing Saturday. He got a win in the $100,000 Mari Hulman George S. with Semble Juste (Ire) (Shalaa {Ire}), who was coming back in nine days after winning an allowance at Churchill. In the GIII Indiana Oaks, he ran Runaway Wife (Gun Runner) off an eight-day layoff and Silverleaf (Speightster) off a nine-day layoff. Runaway Wife finished second and Silverleaf was third. McPeek also ran Rattle N Roll (Connect) in the GIII Indiana Derby, just a week after he won the American Derby. He finished seventh.

On Saturday, McPeek also won the GIII Iowa Oaks with Butterbean (Klimt). She was coming back in 28 days, by McPeek standards a long layoff.

The only horse he ran all day that had more than four weeks off was Tiz The Bomb (Hit It a Bomb), who was making his first start since the May Kentucky Derby in the Belmont Derby. He finished ninth.

On the day, McPeek ran horses in five different races, all of them stakes. He won two and had two others, both fillies, finish in the money and pick up black type. Among that group, everyone was running back in 28 days or less. That just doesn't happen anymore.

A Record-Breaking Belmont Meet For Chad Brown

Chad Brown winning a training title at the NYRA tracks is no longer big news, but what Brown accomplished at the Belmont meet that ended Sunday was historic.

With 153 starters, he won 47 races, setting a new record for most wins by a trainer at the Belmont spring-summer meet. The old record was 44, set by David Jacobson in 2013. But Jacobson compiled those numbers during a year in which the meet ran for 56 days. This year's meet ran for 44 days.

Twelve of Brown's winners came in graded stakes races and four were in Grade I's. He won 14 stakes overall. He won 27 turf races and 20 on the dirt. But his winning percentage on the turf was 26%, while he won with 41% of his dirt starters.

More Small Fields

They could only find five horses to run in the GII Suburban S. Saturday out at Belmont–a race that has been won by Easy Goer, Dr. Fager, Forego, Buckpasser, Kelso, Bold Ruler–and one came from the barn of the racing secretary's best friend, Uriah St. Lewis. The winner, Dynamic One (Union Rags), had never before won a graded stakes.

Between the June 11 GI Metropolitan H. and the GI Woodward S., likely to be run this year on Oct. 1, NYRA will offer five graded stakes for males on the dirt. (The other two are the GI Whitney S. and the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup). Please don't try to tell me this isn't a problem.

Juan Vazquez and the Pennsylvania Racing Commission

For years, the Pennsylvania Racing Commission seemed like a do-nothing organization run by bureaucrats who had better things to do than to truly police the sort. But it looks like that has changed.

Juan Vazquez, who has a long and troubling history of breaking the rules, shipped a horse in January from Belmont to Parx. The horse, Shining Colors (Paynter), arrived in such bad shape that she had to be euthanized due to what the stewards said was a case of severe laminitis. Vazquez was suspended for 2 1/2 years Friday, and the stewards called his actions “grossly negligent, cruel and abusive.”

This was not your typical slap on the wrist, but a penalty that fit the crime. Obviously, the racing commission has had enough of Vazquez's flouting the rules and it brought its hammer down on a trainer who should have been thrown out of the game years ago.

He is eligible to return on Jan. 26, 2025. Will someone–a racing commission, a track?–let him race at that time? One would hope that the sport can show enough backbone that Vazquez will never participate again. Just don't count on it.

The post The Week in Review: McPeek is Different, And That’s Why He’s Successful appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post