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The Week In Review: Baffert 2-Year-Old Horsepower Evident On Del Mar Opening Weekend

Trainer Bob Baffert went 0-for-9 in Breeders' Cup races, and four months ago he received his dis-invitation to the 150th GI Kentucky Derby in the form of an extension of his original two-year suspension from properties owned by the gaming company Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI).

But neither the Breeders' Cup blanking nor the Derby banishment should be taken as indications that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner is running low on horsepower, particularly in the 2-year-old division.

A pair of Baffert juveniles on the first two days of the Del Mar meeting this past weekend underscored that his stable will continue to churn out a deep rotation of Triple Crown aspirants, although it remains to be seen how they might arrive at the first of the spring Classics, whether in the form of a switch to another conditioner, or under Baffert's own name if and when another court fight against CDI materializes.

Second-time starter Coach Prime (Quality Road) caught the eye and earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a 7 1/4-length blowout victory over a mile Nov. 10. The $1.7-million KEESEP colt for Zedan Racing Stables was pinballed at the break from post nine, but the 7-5 favorite settled into a comfortable midpack stalking spot while three wide through the clubhouse turn behind quick opening fractions of :21.44 and :44.94.

Flavien Prat guided Coach Prime to within two lengths of the lead while on the inside a half-mile from home, and the colt continued “on hold” while waiting for running room as multiple pace-pressers took turns chipping at the lead. He shifted out to the three path at the quarter pole, just before a wall of four at the front split into two turning for home, and Coach Prime sliced on through between them while still in hand.

Beyond a single crack of the crop after cresting the eighth pole unopposed, Prat largely hand-rode Coach Prime through the final furlong. The 1:37.18 final clocking and low-looking 75 Beyer Speed Figure can be chalked up as artifacts of this colt not nearing full extension and being geared down in the late stages.

Stablemate Pilot Commander (Justify), a $145,000 KEEJAN RNA and a $700,000 OBSMAR buy for CSLR Racing Partners, impressed with a debut six-furlong win at 13-10 odds under Juan Hernandez the following afternoon.

This Baffert trainee shot straight to the front, conceded the lead to an inside challenger a half-mile out, reclaimed it with ease a furlong later, edged away at the top of the stretch, and successfully repulsed a challenge from the third-favorite in the betting while building his winning margin to 2 1/4 lengths in 1:09.82. Pilot Commander's Beyer fig was not yet available at deadline for this column.

Juvy Jock Streak Stopped At 13…

The target at the top of the totem pole for the 2024 Derby, is, of course, 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), who trounced the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

In the six months between now and the first Saturday in May, prepare to be frequently reminded how poor a metric winning the 1 1/16-miles championship race for 2-year-olds is in predicting prowess at age three going 10 furlongs.

Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016).

Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don't fare much better. Those 78 horses have produced just two Derby victories, by Alysheba (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

Oddly enough, another “drought” type of streak in the Juvenile–this one relating to jockeys–was snapped when John Velazquez scored aboard Fierceness in this year's edition.

Dating to 2010, when Velazquez last won the Juvenile aboard Uncle Mo, 13 different riders had taken turns winning the championship dirt race for 2-year-old males. Of all the Breeders' Cup races, that was the longest such active streak of different jockeys winning without a rider repeating in the sequence.

You'd have to be a true trivia wizard to recount the complete list from memory. Following Velazquez in 2010, the winning Juvenile jockeys were, in order, Ramon Dominguez, Rosie Napravnik, Martin Garcia, Kent Desormeaux, Mario Gutierrez, Julien Leparoux, Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Flavien Prat, Luis Saez, Mike Smith and Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Bravo Homecoming

Joe Bravo has switched his tack back to Florida after being based in Southern California the past several seasons. It's a homecoming in terms of where the 52-year-old veteran first started riding (at Calder Race Course in 1988), and also in terms of the house Bravo owns in Ft. Lauderdale.

“I loved racing in California,” Bravo told the Del Mar notes team. “I was really grateful to be around some good people, but I just got a little homesick and wanted to come back and be closer to my family.”

After stints at Calder and Philadelphia Park, Bravo made his mark for 30-plus years as “Jersey Joe,” dominating the standings at Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands. He generally rode at Gulfstream Park during the winter months when New Jersey racing went dark for the season.

“I've been away from family and friends I grew up with my whole life and that was behind the decision as a whole,” Bravo said. “I just hope everyone understands it's more of a personal than a business decision. I might regret it. I might be thankful.”

That “Whatever will be, will be,” attitude was evident–quite literally–in Bravo's second mount back at Gulfstream.

That's because Bravo won the third race Sunday aboard Whateverwilbewilbe (Tapiture), a second-time starter who paid $13.80 to win.

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The Week In Review: A Weekend Report Card

The next best thing to the Breeders' Cup is a weekend filled with Breeders' Cup preps. That was the story last week as 31 graded stakes races were contested, many of them races that would help shape the fields for the Breeders' Cup races. Who were the big winners? Who were the big losers? Here's our reports card:

Up to the Mark: A+

It had been a depressing year for North American-based turf horses, who lost race after race to European shippers, including some whose credentials were rather modest. Saturday's GI Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland looked like it might be a case of more of the same as the favorite was the Charles Appleby-trained Master of The Seas (Dubawi {Ire}), who was coming off an impressive in the GI Woodbine Mile S. But in Up to the Mark (Not This Time), he was facing the best turf horse in the U.S. Had he been able to beat him handily that would have reaffirmed the message that the European turf horses are light years ahead of the ones based in the U.S. and that the Breeders' Cup turf races would certainly be dominated by shippers from the other side of the Atlantic. It was hardly a dominant performance as Up to the Mark beat Master of The Seas by a nose, but it showed that our very best turf horses can compete with Europe's best. This was the third straight Grade I win for Up to the Mark. If the GI Breeders' Cup Classic is won by an outsider and if Up to the Mark wins his Breeders' Cup race he could be Horse of the Year.

Muth: A

Muth (Good Magic), a $2 million purchase at the OBS March sale, didn't beat the toughest group of horses in Saturday's GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita, but the way he pulled off the victory was impressive and bodes well for his future. In his first two starts, he looked a lot like a precocious, fast horse who would fit best in sprint races. In the mile-and-a-sixteenth American Pharoah, he was relaxed and settled into fourth before launching his bid at the top of the stretch. If Muth is that good, how good is his stablemate, Prince of Monaco (Speightstown)? He beat him decisively when winning the GIII Best Pal S by 4 1/4 lengths.

Idiomatic: A

Yes, Idiomatic (Curlin) had a dream trip in the GI Spinster S. Sunday at Keeneland. And that's the only reason she doesn't get an A +. Florent Geroux managed to get her to the front by 1 1/2 lengths after an opening quarter was run in 24.49. At that point, the race was already over. The lineup that awaits her in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff is tough one, but after the Spinster Idiomatic has to be considered the one to beat. She's won four straight, all stakes and two Grade I's in a row.

Gina Romantica: A-

All that stands between an undefeated season for the Chad Brown-trained In Italian (GB) is Chad Brown. For the second straight race, In Italian went off as a heavy favorite in the GI First Lady S. at Keeneland only to be beaten by a stablemate. This time it was Gina Romantica (Into Mischief). She nailed In Italian by a head at the wire, not an easy thing to do considering that In Italian got the trip she needs, controlling the pace. This race came out of nowhere for Gina Romantica, who increased her best lifetime Beyer by 13 points, from a 92 to a 105. But if she can duplicate the effort in the Breeders' Cup she'll be a horse to watch.

War Like Goddess: A-

What a cool horse. War Like Goddess (English Channel) beat the boys for the second straight year in the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Aqueduct. She RNA'd for $1,000 at the 2018 Keeneland September sale before selling for $30,000 the following year at OBS June. She's now earned $2,495,184 and has won three Grade I's. The competition will get tougher in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, but this was one of the better efforts of her career and showed that she's still at the top of her game at age 6 and more than capable of beating males.

Didia: A-

Few horses have flown under the radar more this year than Didia (Arg) (Orpen). Since arriving here last year from Argentina, she had been beaten only once in five tries and that was when she couldn't catch a loose on the lead Marketsegmentation (American Pharaoh) in the GI New York S. Trainer Ignacio Correas IV gave her four months off after that race and brought her back for Saturday's GII Rodeo Drive S. at Santa Anita. Facing a tough foe in the 3-year-old Anisette (GB) (Atwaad {Ire}), who was undefeated in three U.S. starts, she proved to be clearly the better of the two, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Correas may not be a household name in the U.S., but he proved what he can do when he won the 2019 GI Breeders' Cup Distaff with Blue Prize (Arg) (Pure Prize).

Locked: B+

At first glance, the win by Locked Gun Runner) in the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland doesn't look that impressive. As the 3-5 favorite, he won by just a half length and had to survive a stiff stretch battle from The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso). His Beyer was an 87, a drop off of nine points from his last race. But, breaking from the eight post, he was wide on both turns and lost a ton of ground while The Wine Steward was never more than two paths off the rail.

Timberlake: B+

Brad Cox had Timberlake (Into Mischief) entered in both the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct and the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and it certainly looks like he made the right call sending the 2-year-old to New York for the Champagne. He was last seen running second in the GI Hopeful S., where the winner, Nutella Fella (Runhappy) got a Beyer figure of only 72. But with Timberlake winning the Champagne by 4 1/4 lengths, that race looks a lot better now. Timberlake probably won't be any better than the fouth choice in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he proved in the Champagne that he belongs.

Nations Pride: B

No, Charles Appleby isn't perfect. The first three horses he ran over the weekend all got beat. That meant that Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilio {Ire]) was his last hope. Sent to Woodbine for Sunday's GI Canadian International S., he came through with a 2 1/4-length win as the 2-5 favorite. He'll now return to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, where he finished fifth last year at the 5-2 favorite. Didn't beat much in this race, thus his grade.

In Italian: C

In Italian didn't run terribly in the First Lady when beaten by stablemate Gina Romantica, but that's two straight races she has lost as an odds favorite in which she had no real excuse.

Nest: C-

When Nest (Curlin) kicked off her 2023 campaign with a 2 1/4-length win over Clairiere in the GII Shuvee S. it looked like she was well on her way to a possible Eclipse Award. Nothing has gone right since. She was third in the GI Personal Ensign S. and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Spinster in which she was beaten 11 /4 lengths. A terrific filly who, for whatever reason, didn't have it in her last two starts.

Rebel's Romance: D

Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf, but nothing has gone right for him since. He returned to New York for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic after clipping heels and losing his rider in the GII Bowling Green S. Sent off at 1-2, he showed nothing, finishing fourth.

Fierceness: Incomplete

Considered one of the most impressive maiden winners at Saratoga, where he won by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, Fierceness (City of Light) was pounded down to 1-2 in the Champagne. This time he didn't show up, losing by 20 1/4 lengths. He had all sorts of problems at the start, where be lunged and then got bumped, and maybe that explains the poor performance. We'll probably see him next at Gulfstream, where he'll have every chance to regroup.

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The Week In Review: Breeders’ Cup Berths Not All About Speed Numbers

Going into Saturday's wiring of the GI Awesome Again S., Slow Down Andy (Nyquist) hadn't won a dirt race in 1 1/2 years, and he still has the same habit of swishing his tail in the stretch when lifelong riding partner Mario Gutierrez implores him for run. But this Reddam Racing homebred trained by Doug O'Neill had been finishing respectably behind some A-list names in his company lines, so bettors made him favored for the first time in 15 months, and at 2-1 odds Slow Down Andy rewarded that confidence by doubling their money en route to his first Grade I victory.

The 4-year-old led at every call (101 Beyer Speed Figure) in a “Win and You're In” chance for the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, and this year that nine-furlong prep carries extra emphasis because it was run over the same Santa Anita Park surface that will host the Breeders' Cup championships Nov. 3-4.

“He's becoming better with age. You can see it on his record. His last few races he's just given us his all. Right now, he's fit, he's ready to run in the Breeders' Cup,” Gutierrez said.

Slow Down Andy's win also shifts the balance of power in the Classic division ever so slightly more toward the Left Coast.

A pair of Grade I-winning sophomores, 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) and Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}), the one-two finishers from the GI Pacific Classic (in which Slow Down Andy ran third), already call Santa Anita home. And even though their campaigns this year were not based in California, two other top Classic contenders-the GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate) and MGISW White Abarrio (Race Day)-have already shipped to Santa Anita well in advance of other Eastern-based divisional rivals.

Winning a race over the track theoretically should have a little more significance for Slow Down Andy. But the obvious question moving forward for him (and other possible Breeders' Cup starters who raced on the Sept. 30 Santa Anita card) is whether or not the “wet-fast” main track from that afternoon will be a useful barometer in trying to prognosticate the championships.

Friday's opening day at Santa Anita produced fairly uniform results on a dirt surface labeled “fast.” Of four main-track races, one was won in wire-to-wire fashion, one by a speed horse who pressed the pace, one by a stalker, and one by an off-pace closer.

Rain prior to Saturday produced the wet-fast designation. In eight main track races, four horses wired their fields and four others scored by forcing the issue close up to the frontrunners. Stalkers and closers got completely shut out.

More Than…Impressive

While a triple-digit Beyer performance in a stakes at this stage of the season usually invokes aspirations of running in the Breeders' Cup, the connections of More Than Looks (More Than Ready) indicated they'll likely stay on a late-season course that bypasses Santa Anita and the championships, even after the 3-year-old son of More Than Ready uncorked a devastating late kick and a 101 Beyer when dismantling the field in Saturday's $200,000 Jefferson Cup at Churchill Downs.

Ridden by Cristian Torres and trained by Cherie DeVaux for owner Anthony Bartolo's Victory Racing Partners, More Than Looks rated three wide at the back of the pack into the clubhouse turn and had one horse beaten turning for home as the 1.63-1 favorite in the mile turfer over “firm” ground.

Tipping widest into the lane under a full head of steam out in the seven path, More Than Looks inhaled his eight rivals while responding to rousing between the quarter and sixteenth poles, eventually drawing off by his lonesome late in the lane to score by 2 3/4 lengths

As Churchill announcer Travis Stone articulated with admiration in his call, the colt “looked hopeless with three furlongs to go” before out-torqueing the field in a visually impressive effort.

Now 4-1-1 from seven starts, More Than looks won the GIII Manila S. at Belmont Park on July 7 and ran third in the GII Hall of Fame S. at Saratoga Race Course on Aug. 11.

“This was one of the first times he really put his head down and ran through the wire,” De Vaux said. “Sometimes he got a little green and would hang a little bit once he got in front.”

DeVaux said More Than Looks would likely be aimed at the GIII Bryan Station S. at Keeneland Race Course Oct. 28 and could then attempt the GI Hollywood Derby (GI) at Del Mar Dec. 2.

Landing Spot TBD

Numbers aren't everything when considering the Breeders' Cup, especially when it comes to younger horses.

A case in point is Air Recruit (Air Force Blue), who won the $150,000 Laurel Futurity on Saturday over 1 1/16 miles on a “good” turf course at Laurel Park.

His win only registered a 67 on the Beyer scale. But the 2-year-old colt caught the eye by breaking well, conceding the lead, and rating midpack at the fence while covered up before tipping his big, white blaze out to the three path and wearing down the frontrunners with a determined effort.

Jockey Charlie Marquez rode for trainer Arnaud Delacour and owner Mark Grier.

Air Recruit won his Aug. 5 debut over 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial Downs, beating a pair of next-out winners. He then finished third behind three-time stakes winner No Nay Mets (Ire) (No Nay Never) over the same course and distance in the $125,000 Rosie's S. Sept. 9.

“He went short the first two times out and the first time he really surprised us. We sat right behind the speed [in the colt's debut] and came flying and [were] able to win,” Marquez said. “We put him back in the stake at Colonial and he ran a huge race [behind a] very nice horse. We knew that he wanted to go longer so we stretched him out today and you guys saw what he did.”

Added Delacour: “He always showed a lot of speed. His first breeze from the gate he went like 47 [seconds] in hand, so we knew we had something. I didn't know about the distance, to be honest. That was kind of an experiment, but it was the right time to do it after two races.”

The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf is a possible option, but it's annually a race that gets oversubscribed.

“We'll look at our options,” Delacour said. “Depending on how he comes back, if we can get in the Breeders' Cup it could be an option. He did it impressively enough that we could give him a shot-if we get in.”

Maryland Dates Reduction?

Craig Fravel, the chief executive officer for 1/ST Racing, which owns Laurel Park and Pimlico Race Course, told the Maryland Thoroughbred Racetrack Operating Authority on Friday that a reduced racing schedule is one option that could be considered as the circuit grapples with numerous near- and longer-term issues related to viability and relevancy.

Frank Vespe of The Racing Biz broke the story, reporting that when Authority member and Maryland Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (MTHA) general counsel Alan Foreman asked 1/ST Racing executives to better define what the company meant by an allusion to “realigning the racing calendar,” Fravel responded this way:

“We've made a proposal [to the MTHA] about taking a break in the calendar and shifting racing, the focus of racing, to Colonial during the summer months because they're paying $600,000 or $700,000 today in purse money.”

Vespe reported that 1/ST Racing's analysis “envisions a much shorter Maryland racing season,” but that “fewer days of racing would mean larger per-race purses,” noting that Maryland hosted 175 days of live racing in 2022 and has hosted as many as 187 days in recent years.

“We think that 80 to 90 days can be a very viable racing calendar,” Fravel said. “Even with that, though, operationally there needs to be some reconsideration of the distribution of revenues. But we also think that those days can be run with purses in excess of $500,000, maybe even $600,000 a day, which is highly competitive in the local, regional marketplace.”

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The Week In Review: Juvenile Fillies Emerge As Intriguing Divisional Subplot

The juvenile fillies division is crystalizing into one of the most intriguing subplots of the Breeders' Cup as we approach the six-week mark to the championships.

The skyrocketing 'TDN Rising Star' Tamara (Bolt d'Oro), unveiled barely a month ago, has emerged from the West Coast as the obvious topper of her division. But the brilliant, 2-for-2 daughter of four-time champion Beholder is likely to have a fight on her hands as the upcoming stakes engagements extend around two turns, thanks to a talented trio of fillies who have ascended in the East.

The latest addition to that group of contenders is fellow 'Rising Star' V V's Dream (Mitole), who on Saturday ran up the score by 8 3/4 as-she-pleased lengths in the GIII Pocahontas S. at Churchill Downs.

The stylish victory by the athletic, unruffled 6-5 favorite represented the first graded stakes win for her freshman sire, Mitole. The 1:36.45 clocking for the one-turn mile was .83 seconds faster than 2-year-old males ran one hour later in the GIII Iroquois S., earning V V's Dream an 87 Beyer Speed Figure that ranks nine points higher than the number assigned to the winning colt.

V V's Dream has already tangled with-and run second to-the 4-for-4 Brightwork (Outwork), who has won the Ellis Park Debutante S., the GIII Adirondack S., and the GI Spinaway S. in succession this summer.

Yet it is the trip-troubled filly who ran second in the Spinaway, 'TDN Rising Star' Ways and Means (Practical Joke), who is widely regarded as the one to beat coming out of the Saratoga season. This lofty assessment for a non-stakes-winner is based on her blowout, 90-Beyer MSW debut score by 12 3/4 lengths, and then having her momentum stalled twice in the Spinaway when checking hard and clipping heels behind Brightwork, who only beat her by half a length.

V V's Dream ($130,000 KEENOV; $190,000 KEESEP) also summered at the Spa, but didn't race there. After winning her May 19 debut at Churchill by 6 1/4 lengths and running second to Brightwork by half a length in the July 2 Ellis Debutante, the Ken McPeek-trained gray posted five published workouts at Saratoga, even though the Sept. 16 Pocahontas S. was circled on the calendar as her next goal.

“Kenny wanted to take longer, didn't want her to do another sprint,” owner Mike Mackin (MJM Racing) said in a post-win interview published on the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association's YouTube feed.

Churchill Downs this year tweaked some aspects of its September stakes schedule, including shortening both the Pocahontas and the Iroquois from 1 1/16 miles to one mile. The Pocahontas had been carded at a mile from 1982 through 2012 and in 2020. Mackin said the move didn't initially register on his or his trainer's radar as they prepped V V's Dream for that spot.

“At the time when we first started [planning her campaign], we were thinking that the Pocahontas was a mile and a sixteenth, and just wanted her to do two turns from here on out,” Mackin said.

“But, close enough, I guess, a flat mile,” Mackin added with the afterglow relief of an owner not wanting to nitpick a romp that stamped his filly as a major divisional force.

In the Pocahontas, V V's Dream rated adeptly under Brian Hernandez, Jr., then assertively split foes leaving the chute to command a sweet stalking spot while outside and jointly third for most of the backstretch run. The second and third favorites in the betting were establishing a lively and seemingly unsustainable tempo (:22.83 and :45.55), allowing Hernandez to hone his striking sights while edging incrementally closer through the far turn.

Pouncing at will at the quarter pole after a six-furlong split in 1:10.24, V V's Dream inhaled the wilted pacemakers with little resistance. But it took her several strides before she found her best footing and torqued into a higher gear three-sixteenths out, widening her margin with no serious challengers in her wake. She won geared down and galloped out almost a pole ahead of the runners-up.

“She went on by them pretty easily turning for home, and from there she just kind of coasted on in,” Hernandez said, adding that he “just kind of stayed out of her way and let her get under the wire on her own terms.”

Mackin said the Oct. 6 GI Alcibiades S. at Keeneland is next. He attempted to compare V V's Dream to other recent graded stakes winners his family has campaigned with McPeek (as Lucky Seven Stable), but couldn't quite come up with the right analogy.

“Well, hopefully she's got more sense than Smile Happy,” Mackin said, speaking of the notoriously difficult-to-train Runhappy colt. “But she's got more tactical speed than Rattle N Roll,” he added, referring to the one-run closer by Connect. “He's going to be back of the pack.”

Hernandez, who has worked closely with McPeek's outfit for years, had no trouble pinpointing a comparison from different owners in that same stable.

“She kind of reminds us a lot of that filly we had a few years ago, Restless Rider,” the jockey said, referring to the McPeek-trained daughter of Distorted Humor who ran second in the 2018 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

If V V's Dream follows Restless Rider's pattern and also wins the Alcibiades, she, too, will enter the Breeders' Cup with a 3-for-4 record and a Grade I win at 1 1/16 miles as her final prep.

“She's just kind of big, and always forward,” Hernandez said of V V's Dream. “And from day one, when they first got her in here, she's always kind of done everything the right way. So she's just one of those types of fillies where it's exciting to see her just keep progressing.”

McPeek has now won the Pocahontas four times (2023, 2022, 2016, 2015), establishing a record for that stakes. As Mackin talked of plans for V V's Dream, it might have registered as a surprise to listeners when he touched on the fact that McPeek has never won a Breeders' Cup race. But he's been tantalizingly close-second seven times and third on 10 occasions.

McPeek himself wasn't at the post-race festivities to talk about whether V V's Dream could be the one to snap that oh-so-close Breeders' Cup streak. He was 80 miles east in Lexington, scoping out the Keeneland sale.

“As much as he would have liked to have been here today, his future is dependent upon buying the right yearlings,” Mackin said.

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