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Week In Review: The Horse to Beat in the Derby? It’s Sierra Leone

When Fierceness (City of Light) put on a show in the GI Florida Derby there didn't seem to be any question over who the favorite would be in the GI Kentucky Derby. The Mike Repole-homebred put on quite a show that day, winning by a record 13 1/2 lengths while earning a 110 Beyer figure, the fastest dirt number recorded by any horse this year. He gave the impression that if he could duplicate that race in the Kentucky Derby, there wouldn't be a horse on the planet that could beat him that day.

Then again…

Just seven days after the Florida Derby, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) turned in a special performance of his own in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. He didn't win by 13 1/2 lengths. The margin was just 1 1 /2 lengths. He didn't get a triple digit Beyer. It was a 98. It was a very different race than the one turned in by Fierceness but was every bit as special, maybe even more so.

His story really begins at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The Coolmore team and Peter Brant have a sharp eye for talent and it looks like this was a horse they had to have. They paid $2.3 million for him, which made him the sale topper. With Brant involved, the horse was sent to his main trainer, Chad Brown.

He broke his maiden in November at Aqueduct and came back in the GII Remsen, where he staged an epic duel with Dornoch (Good Magic). He lost by a nose but Dornoch was hugging the rail on a day where the inside was the place to be.

Sierra Leone kicked off his 3-year-old season winning the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. Catching Freedom (Constitution), who was third, went on to win the GII Louisiana Derby. Resilience (Into Mischief) was fourth in the Risen Star and came back in his next start to win the GII Wood Memorial.

But it was the Blue Grass where Sierra Leone really showed how special he is. He acted up prior to the start and delayed the race. That's oftentimes a kiss of death, but it proved not to be a problem. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard he dropped back to ninth in the ten-horse field before launching his bid. Midway on the turn, he still had to get past six horses, which wasn't any sort problem. He came with monstrous, ground gobbling strides and flew past Just a Touch (Justify) to win going away. He ran like a horse who should love the mile-and-quarter and one who has yet to peak.

“We're just trying to maintain pretty much the way he's been his whole life, a special horse,” said Brown, who is 0-for-7 in the Derby. “I don't know if they ever fully figure it out, but he's only had a handful of starts.”

So this was a race where Sierra Leone had to fight and show what he is capable of. He also beat some top quality horses in Just A Touch and GII Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, who was fourth.

That wasn't at all the case for Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Perfectly ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, he was wisely taken to the lead and Velazquez was able to slow the pace down. Fierceness was in front the whole way while posting tepid fractions. He went the first quarter in 24.06, the half in 47.50 and the three quarters In 1:11.31. No one was ever going to catch him with the trip he was able to work out. And to make matters even easier on him, neither of his top two challengers fired. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) was fourth, beaten 16 lengths. Hades (Awesome Slew), the GIII Holy Bull S. winner, was even worse, finishing fifth, beaten 19 3/4 lengths. Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser), a 29-1 shot, was second and 21-1 shot Grand Mo the First (Uncle Mo) was third. Both will be among the longest shots on the board in the Kentucky Derby.

Then there is Fierceness's erratic nature. He runs well every other start and seems unable to overcome any adversity. In the Derby, with 20 horses, he's never going to get a clear, uncontested lead and a slow pace and probably, at some point will encounter some trouble. It's a very hard race in which to get a trouble-free trip.

When it comes to Fierceness-versus-Sierra Leone, the deciding factor could be the pace. As strong a late kick as he has, Sierra Leone still doesn't want to be 19^th in the Derby with someone, maybe Fierceness, setting slow fractions. If Fierceness can get loose on the lead he can absolutely win, Just don't expect that to happen in a 20-horse race where there is usually a pretty quick pace.

Even without Bob Baffert's participation, this looks like a deep, Derby field with a lot of quality. Can Fierceness win? Despite his tendency to throw in bad races, absolutely. But he's going to have to beat Sierra Leone and so will 18 other horses. He's the horse to beat.

Post Time is on a Roll

The GII Carter at Aqueduct has seen better days. Once one of the most important sprint races on the calendar, it was downgraded to a Grade II for this year and the race attracted all of four horses. But the winner was notable.

Even with the small field, this was the biggest test to date for the Brittany Russell-trained Post Time (Frosted). He came into the race with seven wins from eight career starts but some were arguing that he was just beating up on inferior competition in Maryland. His lone defeat had come in the Perryville S. at Keeneland, the only time he had run outside of Maryland.

As expected, Super Chow (Lord Nelson) got off to an uncontested lead and was allowed to set easy fractions. He went in 24.38 and 48.18 and Post Time was last. He then got carried out to the middle of the track by Super Chow, who has a bad habit of bearing out in the stretch. Despite all that, he was able to get the win, beating Castle Chaos (Palace Music) by a neck.

With Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) both having been retired, Post Time could be on his way to an Eclipse Award.

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The Week In Review: Meat Loaf With Side Of Intrigue-Two Outta Three Ain’t Bad

You need to channel your inner Meat Loaf to put Saturday's trio of points-awarding stakes for the GI Kentucky Derby in perspective. The well-backed winners of the GI Arkansas Derby, GI Florida Derby, and G2 UAE Derby all delivered commanding, speed-centric performances that transformed what has been an underwhelming prep season into a Triple Crown chase suddenly spiked with intrigue.

'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic) swatted back a surprise mid-race attack to win authoritatively at Oaklawn. Fellow 'Rising Star' and juvenile champ Fierceness (City of Light) administered a 13 1/2-length shellacking at Gulfstream that resounds as the largest winning margin in Florida Derby history. And at Meydan in Dubai, the undefeated Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) ran his record to 5-for-5, fusing impressive quickness with staunch staying power despite giving up substantial ground on a track slanted in favor of rail runners.

While it's on to Louisville for the latter two, we've known for months that the corporate powers at Churchill Downs have disinvited Bob Baffert's trainees from their 150th Derby bash, so Muth won't be joining Fierceness and Forever Young in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Thus the reference to the emotional lyrics belted out by his Loafness, the late, larger-than-life 1970s rock balladeer: “Don't be sad–'cause two outta three ain't bad.”

There will be no Derby rematch of Fierceness and Muth, the one-two finishers in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Nor will we witness the fascinating hookup of the three most talented tactical speed horses among a projected field of sophomores that, to this point, has been top-heavy with closers and midpack stalkers.

So be it. The Derby isn't the only jewel in the Triple Crown. Fierceness and Forever Young are ready for prime time right now. Muth will be fresh, fit and dangerous for the GI Preakness S. in Baltimore or the GI Belmont S. at Saratoga. Perhaps both, if we're lucky.

What stood out about Muth's tally in the Arkansas Derby was how economically he doled out his speed when confronted with two disruptive attempts to ratchet up the tempo. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, Muth broke running under Juan Hernandez, then backed off the action when a 26-1 sacrificial pacemaker slipped up the rail.

Hernandez appeared content to settle into a prime stalking spot. But just before the field cornered onto the back straight, Flavien Prat unexpectedly knifed 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole.

Hernandez didn't want Timberlake to obtain too big a margin unchallenged, and he quickened Muth for a few strides before sensing he could let Timberlake keep a half-length lead for most of the backstretch run.

Then, starting 3 1/2 furlongs out, Muth gradually ramped up the pressure under his own power. Hernandez cut him loose turning for home.

This was a move Timberlake simply could not match, and the visual of Muth opening up under a hand ride at the head of the lane while Timberlake was being scrubbed on to eventually hold fourth told the story of the race. Muth held off the persistent 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) by two lengths under the wire, and it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to everyone else in a scattered field of also-rans.

Fierceness's ransack win in the Florida Derby under jockey John Velazquez was easily the gaudiest performance of the three March 30 stakes. Yet despite the blowout nature of the victory, it was also the most difficult to quantify.

With a win-every-other-race record through five starts, Fierceness's crushing of a soft-on-paper field on Saturday reaffirmed his status as an A-list sophomore when he's on his game. But still, controlling a measured cadence without having to repulse any serious bids did nothing for this Todd Pletcher trainee's reputation for not being able to deliver the goods when up against the grain of adversity.

At age two, Fierceness won his Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths in the slop, then got drilled by 20 1/4 lengths as the odds-on favorite in the sloppy GI Champagne S. Bettors let him go at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup, and he responded with a 6 1/4-length win that appeared more polished. Yet his unveiling at age three was a flat third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S., and he needed an over-the-top effort in the Florida Derby simply from a momentum perspective.

The Kentucky Derby will now be the put-up-or-shut-up race that tells us what Fierceness is truly made of. Whether you plan to bet on him or against him, the story arc has been written appealingly, purely from an entertainment point of view.

If the UAE Derby previously didn't register on your handicapping radar as a pipeline for legit Kentucky Derby contenders, you are forgiven considering the out-of-their league cumulative record of the horses who have attempted that double.

Since 2000, 13 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth (accomplished twice), along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

Forever Young might be the colt with the best potential to flip that script. Sent for speed from a wide draw over 1900 meters on Saturday, he was responsive to cues to quicken from jockey Ryusei Sakai. Parked four wide through the first turn, Forever Young eased back and settled into a nice stride while fifth onto the backstretch while remaining wide to avoid kickback.

He stayed in about the four path around the final bend while torqueing into a higher gear, then this Yoshito Yahagi trainee dug in down the home straight with an all-out effort that had him inhaling the pacemaker, drawing away and striding out confidently.

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The Week In Review: Nysos Rockets To Derby Relevance, Unaware His Trainer Is Dis-Invited From The Big Bash

Undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) uncorked the type of “Wow!” performance in the GIII Robert Lewis S. on Saturday that rightfully should be the big story out of a weekend that featured four prep stakes for the GI Kentucky Derby.

This 3-for-3 son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning upward-trending Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 (at age two), plus a sizzling 105 for his sophomore debut.

In addition to those impressive metrics, this Baoma Corporation (Susan and Charles Chu) colorbearer has displayed an on-track flair and a powerful fluidity that not only passes the eye test, but dwarfs the visual aesthetics of any efforts we've seen from his next-closest competitors on the Triple Crown trail.

All this, by the way, from a colt who won't reach his actual third birthdate until four days after this year's Derby.

Nysos's 7 1/2-length blowout in the Lewis overwhelmingly whets the appetite for what he'll be capable of delivering in subsequent starts. But like it or not, it's impossible to look too far into the future without coupling this colt's potential for brilliance with last week's news that no top sophomores out of Baffert's stable were transferred to other conditioners in time to meet a Jan. 29 deadline imposed by Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI). Such a move would have allowed those horses to earn Derby qualifying points and compete in the 150th edition of the race.

After Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for the medication betamethasone following the 2021 Derby, CDI banned Baffert from its tracks. The corporate suspension was separate from Medina Spirit's Derby disqualification and a fine and suspension imposed upon Baffert by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.

CDI's exclusion initially was supposed to last only for two years. But on July 3, 2023, the corporation announced it would be extending the ban through at least 2024, citing “continued concerns regarding the threat to the safety and integrity of racing [Baffert] poses to CDI-owned racetracks” by allegedly “continu[ing] to peddle a false narrative concerning the failed drug test of Medina Spirit.”

The timing of that announcement was curious, and for the most part unexpected. Reading between the lines, it almost seemed like CDI executives suddenly realized that Baffert's return would coincide with the big 150th anniversary celebration the corporation is planning for the 2024 Derby, and that they didn't want his presence to overshadow the festivities.

The press release announcing Baffert's extended ban was rolled out in the middle of last summer's long Independence Day weekend. Holiday weekends are an extremely slow time of the news cycle that news-issuing entities have long tried to leverage as opportunities to “bury” announcements they think might generate adverse headlines.

The racing world took notice though, and the news of Baffert's dis-invitation to Derby 150 simmered through last summer and deep into the Breeders' Cup season.

On Jan. 22, 2024, the script was flipped when Baffert made his own announcement via social media: The Hall-of-Fame trainer said he had instructed his attorneys to dismiss any remaining legal actions related to the 2021 Derby disqualification appeal, adding that he has “decided that it is best to positively focus on the present and future that our great sport offers.”

As TDN colleague Bill Finley wrote at the time, “It was not clear why [Medina Spirit's owner, Amr] Zedan and Baffert apparently changed their minds and decided to drop their case. It is possible that their dropping the case was a peace offering in what has been an ugly battle between Churchill Downs and Zedan and Baffert that at times took on a personal tone.”

CDI stood firm, countering with an immediate rebuttal that stated Baffert's dismissal of his appeal “does not change the current suspension or deadline to transfer horses for the upcoming 150th Kentucky Derby.”

One week later, as the Jan. 29 owners deadline to transfer horses to another trainer came and went without a single reported defection among Baffert's top clients, the narrative shifted substantially.

Now CDI's anti-Baffert strategy could backfire. The corporation is facing the prospect of Baffert appearing to have offered an olive branch, his owners lining up behind him in solidarity and his top 3-year-old rocketing to the top of the totem pole among Derby contenders. The very story line that CDI wanted to avoid for Derby 150 will now likely become the focal point of pre-Triple Crown coverage.

For the next three months, you can expect an ever-intensifying stream of stories about the prospect of another “Dysfunctional Derby” in which a corporate edict might keep the best colt(s) from competing in America's most important horse race.

In the last five editions of the Derby, we've seen one DQ of a winner for an in-race foul, another for a post-race drug violation, and one Derby moved from May to September because of the pandemic. At this rate, we'll soon run out of asterisks to affix to the history of our nation's most iconic race.

Despite not budging from Baffert, some of his clients are still holding out hope for a change in CDI's policy. Zedan, who owns 'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic), another top sophomore, is one of them.

“Would we love to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes,” Zedan told DRF.com's David Grening last week. “Would we love to run, especially this being the 150th Derby? Absolutely, yes. Are we hoping to run in the Derby? Absolutely, yes. Do we think we will be there? It's in God's hands.”

Barring the unlikely prospect of CDI reversing its stated course, the courts–again–are another option.

Even though Baffert in '22 and '23 failed to persuade judges to grant him injunctions that would have allowed him to compete in the Derby, and even though he has dropped his current legal appeal, that doesn't preclude any of his clients from going to court on their own to try and overturn CDI's ban on behalf of their horses.

Remember, it only takes one judge to say yes to an injunction request, and the closer any potential plaintiff waits until the May 4 Derby itself, the more of a wild card that scenario becomes from “time is of the essence” type of pressure.

Our nation's courts typically listen long and hard when properly licensed individuals allege that private entities are unfairly keeping them from plying their chosen professions, so it's not out of the question that some aggrieved owner of a Baffert-trained Derby prospect might try that avenue.

Even more fascinating is what to expect in terms of race targeting from Baffert's stable. Will he point his top sophomores to the final late March/early April round of coast-to-coast Grade I preps and then have an arsenal of top-notch stock ready for the GI Preakness S. after being forced to sit out the Derby with all of them?

The Preakness has been the weak link in the Triple Crown over the past few seasons, and would certainly benefit from the infusion of horsepower.

But this scenario, too, could produce unwanted downstream effects. The Preakness already has trouble luring any other Derby entrants besides the winner. How many also-rans from the Derby are going to be keen on heading to Baltimore knowing a handful of fresh Baffert trainees have been specifically pointing for the middle jewel of the series?

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Week in Review: Belmont Stakes Shift To Saratoga Ignites Healthy Debate, But Racing World Won’t Tilt Off Its Axis

Last week's announcement that the 2024 GI Belmont S. will be migrating north to Saratoga Race Course for 2024 because of the $455-million extensive renovation of Belmont Park made official a move that the New York Racing Association (NYRA) has been openly discussing for months.

But since the press release from the New York governor's office came out during a slow time of the year for racing news, it rekindled speculation about the ramifications of tinkering with the historical significance of the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

The debate is healthy. It means fans care.

But the racing world isn't about to tilt off its axis because of changes that will probably end up making the best of an unavoidable, temporary transition.

Cutting back the 1 1/2 miles “Test of a Champion” distance of the Belmont S. to 1 1/4 miles generated the most outcry.

The feasibility of moving the four-day (Thursday-Sunday) Belmont S. festival upstate for one long weekend June 6-9 instead of just running it at Aqueduct Racetrack was a distant second in the discussion.

And although it was not specifically addressed in the official release, the expectation is that the Belmont Park construction will extend through 2025, meaning that the site and distance switch figures to be in play for at least the next two runnings of the Belmont S.

The purse of the race will also be getting a boost, from $1.5 million to $2 million.

The last time Belmont Park was closed for a major facelift, from 1963-1967, the Belmont S. got shifted to Aqueduct, which accommodated the 1 1/2 miles distance without incident by starting the race on the far turn at the three-eighths pole.

Since both Saratoga and Aqueduct feature nine-furlong main-track ovals, that would be the start point for any 1 1/2 miles dirt race at either venue (without resorting to an alternate finish line).

It would be an awkward (but not impossible) configuration to attempt, so NYRA has opted for the two-furlong cutback.

To some racing enthusiasts, that's absolute heresy that will sully the Triple Crown with asterisks if a horse manages to sweep the series at the truncated Belmont S. distance.

Others are simply shrugging their shoulders and accepting the short-term trim as a historical aberration, noting that over the past century and a half, there have been a number of tweaks to the distances, order, time spacing, and venues of all the Triple Crown races.

With that in mind, maybe the best outcomes to root for in 2024-25 are close, competitive editions of the Belmont S. with no one horse sweeping the series.

One longer-term concern about the distance switch is that horse owners and trainers might end up liking the 10-furlong Belmont S. so much that they'll push for the change to become permanent under the argument that it better suits modern-day Thoroughbreds who are bred for speed rather than stamina.

If the 1 1/4-mile runnings of the race end up luring large fields, this theory could have some legs.

But it would be difficult to imagine NYRA officials wanting to unveil the brand-new Belmont Park in 2026 by starting its showcase race in another awkward spot, this time on the first turn. That's where the few main-track races carded at 10 furlongs must begin over Belmont's 1 1/2-mile circumference.

As to the wisdom of choosing Saratoga over Aqueduct, the question comes down to location, location, location.

And context.

Yes, the logistics of running the Belmont S. at Aqueduct would be far easier than moving the meet (and a small army of backstretch workers and track employees) upstate for just four days. Remember, after the Belmont-at-Saratoga mini-meet, racing is to return downstate to Aqueduct for another month before then coming back to the Spa July 11 for the traditional 40-day summer season.

You could maybe make a minor case for wanting to give utilitarian Aqueduct a fitting send-off salute by allowing it to host a Triple Crown race for two years before the property likely gets sold and repurposed (all of NYRA's downstate racing and training is envisioned to get consolidated at Belmont Park after the construction project is complete). If it worked in the 1960s, why not the 2020s?

Recall that at the time of the last Belmont Park rehab 60 years ago, Aqueduct had just undergone its own three-year renovation (completed in 1959) and was being hailed as “the world's most modern and luxurious horse plant,” as per the Associated Press.

And in 1963, Saratoga was still a relatively sleepy hamlet that hosted seasonal racing for only a few weeks each summer. So moving the Belmont S. there would have been considered an unlikely (even absurd) proposition the last time this type of venue switch had to be considered.

Now fast-forward six decades: Aqueduct has long since been retrofitted from a primary racing plant to a full-blown racino with not enough seating or trackside amenities to accommodate the 50,000 attendance cap for the Belmont S.

And Saratoga? Its stature and infrastructure have both blossomed in the other direction, with numerous “premium seating” renovations added over the past few years to more readily accommodate the hospitality needs of a special event like a four-day weekend.

Saratoga has undergone numerous renovations and new builds | Sarah Andrew

Plus, simply from a cachet standpoint, the racing-centric, tourism-ready, boutique atmosphere in upstate Saratoga provides an exclamation point that workmanlike Aqueduct in Queens could never match.

Yet the move is not completely without drawbacks. There will be legitimate gripes about another major racing event being pushed farther out of the grasp of the everyday horseplayer who wants to see important stakes in person.

Remember how-for decades-racing used to promote itself as the only sport in America where admissions were kept at the same price point for blockbuster events as they were for regular, run-of-the-mill, weekday afternoons?

That marketing mantra slid of the grid many years ago. If you remember that type of sloganeering at all, you probably also recall how pay telephones were once strictly verboten at tracks (to keep race results out of the hands of bookies), or how the racing industry used to boast that it was the highest-attended spectator sport in the nation.

Mike MacAdam, writing for the Daily Gazette in upstate New York, pointed out in a Friday article how tickets for the Belmont-at-Saratoga meet, which are expected to go on sale in mid-February, will be largely limited to four-day packaged seating options, with early-access first dibs going to box-seat holders from both Belmont and Saratoga, plus Saratoga reserved season ticket holders and past Belmont S. package purchasers.

“So, for the most part, you won't be able to get single-day seating,” MacAdam wrote.

Noting that pricing and policies have yet to be announced publicly, MacAdam also speculated that Saratoga's fan-friendly carry-in cooler rule could change for the Belmont S. weekend.

“NYRA hasn't announced yet whether fans will be allowed to bring in their own food and beverages,” MacAdam wrote in the Daily Gazette. “It's worth noting that they don't allow outside alcohol on Belmont Day.”

Hotel rooms for the June 6-9 period are going, going, gone, according to news reports by several different upstate New York media outlets.

The Daily Gazette reported in a separate story by Shenandoah Briere last Wednesday that Saratoga hotel rooms at Embassy Suites that had been advertised at $285 to $335 a night prior to the governor's announcement about the Belmont S. quickly got bloated by supply and demand to up over $1,100 per night.

On Sunday, a TDN check of lodging availability at the higher-end Adelphi Hotel yielded Friday and Saturday rates listed for as high as $4,022 per night, with a three-night minimum stay in effect.

There is no word yet on how much a spot on someone's spare couch in one of the outlying towns in the Saratoga region might cost you, but we'll keep you posted over the long winter between now and the sure-to-be-unique, first-ever Belmont-at-Spa fest.

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