‘A Fascinating Exercise For The Handicapper’: Kentucky Downs’ Average Win Payoff $16.73 In 2020

When it comes to Kentucky Downs making its case as the best betting product in America, the proof is in the payoffs.

Last year's average return for a $1 exacta at Kentucky Downs was $65.32, $75.99 for the $1 double, $269.20 for the 50-cent trifecta, $374.06 for the 50-cent Pick 3 and $23,076 for the 50-cent Pick 5. Even the $2 win payoff average was a healthy $16.73.

The all-grass FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs runs this Sunday, Labor Day Monday and Sept. 6, 8, 9, 11 and 12. First post is 12:20 p.m. Central.

“One of the highlights for handicappers and for fans is that you get this amalgamation of horses from different racing circuits around the country that you normally only get at a meet like the Breeders' Cup,” said Ken Kirchner, Kentucky Downs' Director of Wagering Development: “When you have more than $2 million a day in purses, not only are your stakes races this mix of New York, Kentucky, Florida, California and other horses, you have that in the maiden and allowance races across the board. It's just a fascinating exercise for the handicapper to say, 'Gosh, I can find great value every single race of this meet.'”

Kentucky Downs offers full fields and large betting pools — the formula for big payouts. Last year Kentucky Downs averaged a $3,295 payoff for its 50-cent Pick Four, with the betting pool averaging $357,778, according to an Equibase analysis. With the Pick 4 one of racing's most popular bets, Kentucky Downs has added a third daily Pick 4 to its betting menu for 2021.

Kirchner said there “is not another meet in the country that matches up with Kentucky Downs” as far as betting value. Kirchner is an internationally recognized expert on simulcasting and wagering who, as a senior vice president for both industry organizations, was instrumental in creation of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) for the Breeders' Cup and the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association.

“I would almost equate this one-week meet at Kentucky Downs to Royal Ascot, where it is so unique in terms of the racing surface, the mix of horses and horsemen, the top jockeys all coming in from around the country,” Kirchner said. “This has that Royal Ascot meets county fair-type feel at Kentucky Downs.”

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Kirchner also was involved in expanding Kentucky Downs' 2021 King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge presented by Daily Racing Form into a trio of two-day handicapping contests spanning the entire meet.

Seats at the 2022 NHC will be awarded to the top finishers in all three individual competitions, with seats for the 2021 BCBC also up for grabs in the final two contests. The overall winner who participates in all three contests over the six dates will be crowned National Turf Handicapping Champion and earn additional prize money, along with the National Turf Handicapping Champion Trophy presented by BetMakers.

The separate online tournaments are live-money events, meaning that entrants use a real bankroll and get to keep whatever they might earn. All contest bets must be placed through the TVG, 4NJBets or Xpressbet advance-deposit wagering platforms.

“We're excited about the new tournament format,” Kirchner said. “It's a very unique format. With the betting value and being a live-money contest, players have a chance to turn a small bankroll into a big reward.”

For more information or to sign up, contact tournament director Brian Skirka at bskirka@monmouthpark.com.

Click here for complete rules

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TIF: Fixed Odds Betting For Racing Is A ‘Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity’

Launched in the summer of 2018, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF) has sought improved outcomes for American Thoroughbred racing's “voluntary” participants – horse owners and horseplayers. As the sport's primary investment sources, horse owners and horseplayers drive much of racing's value chain – buying/breeding horses to race and betting on those races. Every stakeholder in the sport depends on these two groups participating financially, paying bills and placing bets.

TIF believes that by improving outcomes for those groups, the entire ecosystem of the sport will be improved. TIF published a series of foundational white papers in its first year, outlining a series of ideas that could yield such outcomes. Among them: reduced bet pricing, modernized rules, increased transparency, improved access (and reduced cost) to data used to inform bettors and an introduction of fixed odds betting for racing to complement existing pari-mutuel offerings.

While some industry organizations have spent years focusing on other important issues – notably safety and welfare – the ball has otherwise been dropped as it relates to the sustainability of the sport through wagering.

Many racetrack operators have pivoted into multi-platform technology businesses as wagering has shifted largely from in-person, brick-and-mortar betting to online, mobile and computer-robotic wagering. Relative to racing-related purse generation, this has not benefitted horse owners. In 2020, TIF estimated mainstream horseplayers, those betting less than $1 million annually, reduced their share of total racing wagering by approximately 63 percent from 2003.

The future might be different.

NEW JERSEY AND THE WORLD

In February 2020, Monmouth Park operators Darby Development signed a 10-year deal with Australian firm The BetMakers to manage the fixed odds betting business. In early August, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy signed a bill which enables such betting on the sport – for live and simulcast races – for the state's customers.

“We feel the support for fixed odds as a solution to facilitate growth in the horse racing industry in the U.S. gaining momentum throughout the industry,” said BetMakers CEO Todd Buckingham after the vote. “We are excited about what this opportunity means for the racing industry in New Jersey and more broadly in the U.S.”

One notable concern often raised about introducing fixed odds to racing is the loss of business from higher revenue-sharing bets in pari-mutuel pools, typically win betting, which shift to the new option where odds are locked-in, but revenue back to purses is often lower.

TIF supported the concept, publishing a white paper on the topic in February 2019, and is excited by the possibilities it brings for the industry.

“The American pari-mutuel monopoly has not been kind to the sport or horsemen in the internet era,” said TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings.

“Pari-mutuel wagering has been allowed to stagnate – there has been little innovation in the space. Adjusted for inflation since 2000, overall pari-mutuel wagering on racing is down 50% in the U.S., and most of that occurred while racing had a veritable monopoly in online betting. Our customer base has changed, the market has changed, but racing's betting business stagnated. Fixed odds competition should be good for racing, introduce racing to legal sports betting customers across America and offer an additional option for existing customers.”

But BetMakers is not banking on fixed odds for racing in America alone.

The Australian company recently completed the acquisition of the racing, tote and digital assets from Sportech, one of three companies which had provided pari-mutuel betting services to North American racing.

In an interview with SBC Americas, BetMakers chief operating officer Jake Henson outlined the long-term vision for the firm.

“Our mission is to create the world's largest global racing network that rewards all industry stakeholders and provides a sustainable ongoing funding model for the sport,” said Henson.

The first fixed-odds service provider in U.S. racing is also a big pari-mutuel betting player too. The complement of fixed odds betting to existing pari-mutuel offerings is attractive to one of America's biggest operators.

OPTIMISM FROM NYRA, HORSEMEN

David O'Rourke, the New York Racing Association's chief executive officer, glowed about the possibilities of fixed odds bets for racing in his address at the Jockey Club's Round Table in mid-August.

“A marketplace where most sports books offer racing should be our goal. Fixed odds on simpler wagers alongside pari-mutuel exotics is a potential winning combination, offering the new player a familiar entry point while maintaining deep exotic pools for our more experienced players.

“There are a lot of risks, challenges, hesitations, and hurdles to realize a market where fixed odds and ADW offerings come together. But we here at NYRA believe the rollout of sports betting is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Joe Applebaum, president of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, embraced fixed odds as “inevitable” a day after O'Rourke at the Racing & Gaming Conference in Saratoga Springs in mid-August.

“Typically, horsemen sit on a panel like this and throw up all sorts of reasons why we shouldn't change and we should stick with pari-mutuel,” Appelbaum said. “But I would say that it's inevitable, maybe in six months or maybe in six years, there will be a mix of bookmaking and pari-mutuel wagering in this country, and in just about any jurisdiction. We should keep our eyes open, and we shouldn't be scared.”

FIXED ODDS ONLY NEW FOR U.S. CUSTOMERS

Cummings notes that American track operators, and a subsidiary of 1/ST (formerly The Stronach Group), have enjoyed revenue from fixed odds betting for years through contracts between tracks, the subsidiary (XB Net) and foreign bookmakers.

“Several European bookmakers have shared with TIF, separately, that total betting on U.S. racing at fixed odds from European customers exceeds 1 billion British pounds annually, the equivalent of nearly 13% of total U.S. pari-mutuel handle. It is beyond time for the American market to expand and offer such bets to American customers on American races.”

Upon the publishing of fixed odds regulations by New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement, followed by the completion of agreements between New Jersey bookmakers, American tracks and their representative horsemen's groups, fixed odds bets can be offered by registered New Jersey betting operators to their customers. Pari-mutuel betting remains unchanged.

The New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NJTHA) has been at the forefront of sports betting legalization in America. Their suit against the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) and professional sports leagues, later combined with one from then New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (and assumed by Governor Murphy) paved the way for legal sports betting to be adopted by states.

Through the end of July 2021, more than $17.3 billion has been bet, with over $1.2 billion in revenue to the state, through legal New Jersey bookmakers since June 2018.

When fixed odds bets for racing are first offered for New Jersey customers, the numbers will undoubtedly be small to start. More states are believed to be considering expanding offerings to include racing, but there is no doubt New Jersey is going first…again.

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Virginia Derby Highlights All-Stakes, All-Turf Pick-5 Tuesday At Colonial Downs

A field of 12 will go to post in the 18th running of the Grade 3 New Kent County Virginia Derby presented by Woodford Reserve on Tuesday August 31 at Colonial Downs, featured event of five stakes on the card and eleven races in all.

The Derby carries a purse of $250,000 and will be contested at 1 1/8 miles over the track's signature Secretariat Turf Course. Programmed as the tenth race, it will be the final leg of an All-Stakes, All-Turf Pick-5 wager covering races 6-10 that kicks off with the $150,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Old Nelson Stakes and continues with the $100,000 Woodford Reserve Kitten's Joy Stakes, the $100,000 Exacta Systems Rosie's Stakes and the $150,000 Woodford Reserve Virginia Oaks. First post Tuesday is 1:45 PM and the Derby itself is at 6:14 PM.

The top three finishers from the Bald Eagle Derby at Pimlico July 24 all return to square off in the Virginia Derby and all are early favorites.

With only two lifetime starts, Augustin Stable's Experienced was a solid runner-up in the Bald Eagle last out which followed a maiden special weight score over the Delaware turf June 21. Jonathan Thomas conditions the Temple City gelding who is favored at 7-2. Manuel Franco will be in the irons.

Augustin Stable is seeking their third Virginia Derby win. They scored in the 1998 inaugural edition with Crowd Pleaser and three years later with Potaro.

Gap View Stables and Jagger Inc.'s Indian Lake, a gate-to-wire winner in the Bald Eagle, is co-second favorite at 5-1. The 3-year-old Daredevil gelding has finished in-the-money in 16 of 17 career starts and has earnings of $222,408, highest of any in the field. The Jamie Ness trainee has a trio of allowance wins this year, a runner-up in the Jersey Derby and a third in the Sussex Stakes. Ruben Silvera will ride.

Madaket Stables LLC's Wootton Asset, third place finisher in the Bald Eagle, is trained by Graham Motion who won the 2019 Virginia Derby with English Bee. The 3-year-old Wootton Bassett colt, also 5-1, took third in the Grade 3 Kent Stakes July 3 and finished second by a nose in the Laurel Futurity last October. He has bankrolled $100,245 from nine turf starts. Jose Ortiz has the mount.

Gallagher's Stud's Search For Truth dominated a Colonial maiden special weight race by 11 1/2 lengths August 10 at the 1 1/8 miles distance and is 8-1 in the Derby. The Michael Dickinson trainee's only other start came over a soft turf at Delaware where he rallied from fifth at the top of the stretch to finish second. Joe Rocco Jr., who rode the Tourist colt to victory three weeks ago, is back up top.

Also at 8-1, L and N Racing's Hidden Enemy only has one win from ten starts but has faced tough competition in his last four outs. The Steve Asmussen trainee was fourth in the Grade 2 American Turf at Churchill May 1 then finished ninth in the $1 million, Grade I Belmont Derby July 10. The Irish-bred son of Galileo broke his maiden March 21 at Fair Grounds. Feargal Lynch will ride.

Red Oak Stable's It Can Be Done, 10-1 early, has bankrolled $177,330 from ten starts including a win in the Nownownow Stakes at Monmouth last October. The Temple City gelding finished a solid second last out in the Tale of the Cat Stakes and lost by a neck March 27 in the Cutler Bay at Gulfstream. The Greg Sacco trainee has competed in six stakes thus far. Jose Ferrer is the jockey.

Rounding out the Derby field is Savesnine Corporation's Draft Capital, McCarty Racing LLC's Doubleoseven, Bourbon Lane Stable's Hard Rye Guy, Deuce Greathouse's Shady McGee, Jerry Marks Stables LLC's Slicked Back and Carmen Catizone's Eye of the Cat.

Twelve 3-year-old fillies have entered the 12th running of the $150,000 Woodford Reserve Virginia Oaks, also at 1 1/8 miles, led by morning line favorite Por Que No. Owned by Fano Racing, the daughter of Wicked Strong has won five of seven career starts including a gate-to-wire win in the Boiling Springs Stakes most recently.

A field of seven 2-year-olds will compete 5 1/2 furlongs in the 2nd running of the $100,000 Exacta Systems Rosie's Stakes. Tom Durant's Tejano Twist, fresh off a three length maiden special weight win at Colonial August 3, is favored at 5-2. Rocco Jr. will ride for trainer Bret Calhoun.

Six 2-year-olds will stretch out at 1 1/16th miles in the $100,000 Woodford Reserve Kitten's Joy Stakes. Jeremy Brooks' Wow Whata Summer is 5-2 early based on a pair of starts at the current New Kent meet. The Summer Front colt finished a close third in the Virginia-restricted Hickory Tree Stakes August 2, which followed a maiden special weight race July 20 where the James Lawrence trainee was bumped up from second after initial winner Capt. Candy was disqualified.

The $150,000 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Old Nelson Stakes kicks off the Pick-5 with a field of eight fillies and mares at the 1 1/16th miles distance. Randall Bloch and Six Column Stables' Market Rumor is favored at 3-1. The Afleet Alex filly has bankrolled $229,270 from 14 starts including an allowance victory last out at Gulfstream.

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Special Two-Day Pick 4 Planned For Travers Weekend At Saratoga

The New York Racing Association Inc. (NYRA) will host a special two-day Pick 4 featuring exciting stakes action from historic Saratoga Race Course during the Runhappy Travers weekend.

The wager, which features a $2 minimum base, will be offered with a mandatory payout. Free past performances are available via NYRA.com and NYRABets.com. For more information, visit NYRA.com/CrossCountry.

The first two legs will be the $250,000 Albany and the $150,000 Yaddo in Races 9 and 10, respectively, on Friday. The concluding legs will take place the following day, starting with the Grade 1, $600,000 Personal Ensign presented by Lia Infiniti in Race 10 and culminating with the Grade 1, $1.25 million Runhappy Travers in Race 12.

Friday's New York Showcase Day will kick off the wager, starting with the Albany for 3-year-olds contesting 1 1/8 miles on the main track with a 5:39 p.m. Eastern post time. Americanrevolution will look to continue his upward trajectory following a 7 ¼-length victory in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes. The son of Constitution handled his two-turn debut with flying colors, arriving at the New York Derby off a narrow triumph against next-out winner Water's Edge in a June 20 maiden event going six furlongs at Belmont Park.

Trainer Kelly Breen will saddle two contenders in It's a Gamble and It's Gravy.

It's a Gamble, a son of English Channel, earned an open company stakes victory when capturing an off-the-turf edition of the Jersey Derby on May 28 at Monmouth Park. The three-time winner broke his maiden over the Mellon turf last summer at Saratoga and defeated winners over the Aqueduct outer turf in the final start of his 2-year-old season.

It's Gravy, by Freud, is in search of his first victory since breaking his maiden on January 16 over a muddy and sealed main track at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The Yaddo, with a 6:13 p.m. post time, is the last of six stakes for New York-breds worth a combined $1.15 million on the Friday card. The handicap for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up going 1 1/16 miles on the Mellon turf course will see a loaded 10-horse field headlined by Myhartblongstodady who returns to defend her title after scoring gate-to-wire last summer. The 6-year-old Scat Daddy bay, trained by Jorge Abreu, boasts a record of 13-5-2-3 with purse earnings of $344,216.

Strong opposition will be provided by the Christophe Clement-trained Classic Lady, who finished third in last year's Yaddo and last out ran fourth in an open optional-claiming race over the Monmouth Park turf on July 31.

Saturday's Runhappy Travers Day, featuring seven graded stakes, including six Grade 1s, will continue the two-day wager with the 74th running of the Personal Ensign for fillies and mares 4-years-old and up going 1 1/8 miles with a 4:47 p.m. post time.

The contest, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff in November at Del Mar, will see 2020 Grade 1 Preakness-winner Swiss Skydiver take on multiple Grade 1-winning Letruska, who will be attempting her fourth consecutive graded stakes score for trainer Fausto Gutierrez. Letruska has already secured her Breeders' Cup Distaff spot with a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, also a “Win and You're In” event, on Belmont Stakes Day June 5.

Swiss Skydiver, the reigning 3-Year-Old Filly champion and 2020 Grade 1 Alabama winner for conditioner Kenny McPeek, will go up against a talented field that includes Letruska and other top contenders including Bonny South.

Bonny South, from the barn of reigning Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, will try to turn the tables on Letruska after a runner-up finish in the Ogden Phipps.

Concluding the two-day Pick 4 will be the 152nd running of the Runhappy Travers for 3-year-olds contesting the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles at 6:12 p.m. on FOX. Cox will send out the reigning Champion 2-Year-Old Essential Quality, who has sustained his excellence as a 3-year-old with back-to-back wins in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June and a last out victory in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy in his first start over the Saratoga track.

Keepmeinmind, trained by Robertino Diodoro, will look to turn the tables on Essential Quality, after running a hard-charging second to the Runhappy Travers morning-line favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity and ran third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 2020.

The seven-horse Runhappy Travers field is also comprised of Midnight Bourbon for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Dynamic One, for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Masqueparade [Al Stall, Jr.], King Fury [McPeek] and Miles D [Chad Brown].

Two-day Pick 4 – Friday August 27:
Leg A: Saratoga – Race 9, Albany (5:39 p.m.)
Leg B: Saratoga – Race 10, Yaddo (6:13 p.m.)

Saturday August 28:
Leg C: Saratoga – Race 10, G1 Personal Ensign presented by Lia Infiniti (4:47 p.m.)
Leg D: Saratoga – Race 12, G1 Runhappy Travers (6:12 p.m.)

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