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Equibase Analysis: Tiz The Law Has ‘Triple Advantage’ In Travers

The Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers Stakes is undoubtedly the biggest race on a star-studded card at Saratoga on Saturday, August 8. With four weeks to go until the first Saturday in September, it's one of the last three opportunities for horses to gain points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will allow them to enter the starting gate next month. The last two races in the series are the Ellis Park Derby (Sunday, Aug. 9) and the Pegasus Stakes (Saturday, Aug. 15).

The eight horse field for the Travers is led by division leader Tiz the Law, who is undefeated in three races this year. As the points leader, Tiz the Law doesn't need to win the race to run in the Kentucky Derby but as he has dominated the division this winter, spring and summer it is likely he will win. Country Grammer and Caracaro arguably are horses that can improve and provide the favorite with a challenge, having just finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes last month.

Uncle Chuck ships out from California for trainer Bob Baffert, having scratched out of the Shared Belief Stakes last week for this race. He enters the race off a win in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby and is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice to date in his career. South Bend proved competitive in the 3-year-old division when last seen at the end of June, rallying from 10th in the early stages to come up just three-quarters of a length shy of winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

Max Player also rallied late in a race in the division when third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June but still was five and one-quarter lengths in arrears of Tiz the Law. Shivaree made his mark earlier this year when second behind Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but most recently finished 11th in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. First Line rounds out the field, taking a huge step up in class following a maiden victory at Saratoga 10 days ago.

In terms of how fast he's run, Tiz the Law stands out in this year's Runhappy Travers Field. In his first start as a 3-year-old in February, Tiz the Law earned a spectacular 117 Equibase Speed Figure, which is unheard of for that time of year. Nearly two months later when dominating in the Florida Derby by four and one-quarter lengths, Tiz the Law earned a 112 figure, then following nearly three more months off he earned a 113 figure winning the Belmont Stakes. Not only did Tiz the Law dominate and beat a total of 23 other horses in those three races by an average of 3 1/2 lengths, he never gave any other horse a chance to win in the last eighth of a mile. Putting those figures in perspective, they amount to a “triple advantage,” as the lowest of the three figures is higher than the best figure of any of the other seven horses in this race. With the ability to relax in second or third in the early stages of his races then find another gear to drive by the field and coast home, Tiz the Law is likely to win the Travers Stakes as easily as he has won his other three races this year and enter the gate for the Kentucky Derby as the first prohibitive favorite in many years.

That being said, it is not totally out of the realm of possibility either Caracaro or Country Grammer could post the upset to win the Travers. Three weeks ago in the Peter Pan Stakes run at the slightly shorter distance of one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga, Country Grammer and Caracaro engaged in a stirring stretch battle, with Caracaro securing the advantage by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and Country Grammer asserting himself on the finish line by that same margin. They both earned 95 figures for the race, which isn't even in the same area code as the 113 figure Tiz the Law earned a few weeks earlier winning the Belmont Stakes. Still, both colts had run better prior to that and have the breeding to run even better at this mile and one-quarter distance. Caracaro improved to a 103 figure in January in only the second start of his career, an 11 point improvement off his debut. As such, having been off from January until the Peter Pan six months later, improving another 11 points off the 95 figure effort puts him in line with the 117 figure effort Tiz the Law put forth in his best this year. Country Grammer had been off for three months before his June 4 prep for the Peter Pan in which he finished third with a 98 figure and he too could leap frog past that previous best to have a big say in the outcome of the Travers.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is First Line (96), Max Player (105), Shivaree (106), South Bend (98) and Uncle Chuck (98).

Win Contenders:
Tiz the Law
Caracaro
Country Grammer

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 8 – Post Time 6:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: Fox Sports 5 – 6:30 PM E.T.

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Tiz the Law Draws Post Six in Travers

GI Belmont S. winner Tiz the Law (Constitution) looks to take his next step down this unconventional GI Kentucky Derby trail in Saturday’s GI Runhappy Travers S. at Saratoga. The even-money morning-line favorite will break from post six with regular rider Manny Franco in the irons.

“I think he’s matured enough now that outside or inside is not going to bother him too much,” trainer Barclay Tagg said. “I’d prefer that he’s on the outside just because you have less chance of getting in trouble. Not that you can’t, but you have less chance. I think post six is fine. Five would have been fine. Four would have been fine. Any of those three would have been fine with me.”

‘TDN Rising Star’ Uncle Chuck (Uncle Mo) is the second choice at 5-2 and is drawn in post three. The undefeated Bob Baffert pupil will be piloted by Luis Saez. Belmont third-place finisher and GIII Withers S. victor Max Player (Honor Code) and GIII Peter Pan S. winner Country Grammar (Tonalist) were both given 6-1 morning-line quotes. Trainer by Linda Rice, Max Player drew post four with Joel Rosario in the irons. Chad Brown pupil Country Grammar will be in stall two with Irad Ortiz at the controls.

The rest of the field is as follows: First Line (First Samurai), post one, 30-1; Shivaree (Awesome of Course), post five, 30-1; Caracaro (Uncle Mo), post seven, 10-1; and South Bend (Algorithms), post eight, 15-1.

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Travers: Uncle Chuck ‘Will Have To Step It Up,’ Late-Running Max Player Should Love Distance

While Tiz the Law will have to wait to the fall to complete the Triple Crown trail [the Preakness is slated for October 3, just four weeks after the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5], he will be tested in Saturday's Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga by Uncle Chuck. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will ship the lightly raced but talented son of Uncle Mo, who enters 2-for-2.

Unraced as a juvenile, the quarter-million dollar purchase at the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale won his debut by seven lengths on June 12 at Santa Anita and handled a step up in class with aplomb in a four-length victory at 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 3 Los Alamitios Derby on July 4.

“He's quick,” Baffert said. “He's a big, tall horse but he's really quick on his feet. He's got a tremendous stride. That's why I thought the mile and a quarter would suit him well. If you can win the Travers, it's a big thing. But Tiz the Law looks unbelievable. I watched his last work and he looked tremendous, so Uncle Chuck will have to step it up. It should be a great race.”

Baffert is a three-time Travers winner, including with Arrogate, who set both the stakes and track record when he dominated the field in 2016, hitting the wire in 1:59.36. Baffert won for a second year in a row with West Coast in 2017.
Luis Saez, aboard for his stakes win, will be in the irons against from post 3. Uncle Chuck is listed at 5-2.

“He's been training well, and I thought he deserves a chance to run in it,” Baffert said. “He's only had two races, but they were pretty impressive. The talent is there, he's just still figuring it out and putting it together.”

Another upstart in the Travers is Max Player, the Belmont Stakes third-place finisher, for trainer Linda Rice.

A winner of the Grade 3 Withers in February at Aqueduct Racetrack, Max Player has never finished off the board in four starts, posting a 2-1-1 ledger. Owned by George E. Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds, Max Player is 15th on the Derby leaderboard with 40 points.

Max Player will stretch out to a mile and a quarter for the first time after competing at 1 1/8 miles in his previous two starts.

“He was closing ground at the end of the mile and an eighth in the Belmont, so I'm hoping the extra distance only works in his favor,” Rice said. “It would be great if we had an honest pace in this race, so it would set up better for a horse coming from off the pace.”

The Honor Code colt is listed as 6-1 on the morning line and will break from post 4 under Joel Rosario, who will have a Travers mount for the fifth consecutive year.

Rice was the first female to win a Saratoga training title when she paced all conditioners with 20 wins in 2009. She will be saddling her second Travers starter and first since Kid Cruz [fourth] in 2014.

“For someone who has raced in New York year round for quite some time now, the Travers is one of those races on your bucket list that you'd really like to win,” Rice said. “It's exciting to be in the race. It's disappointing that we won't have the crowds or the fanfare that goes with it, but I'd still be thrilled to win a race like the Travers.”

The top-two finishers of the Grade 3 Peter Pan on July 16 at Saratoga will make short turnarounds to rematch in the Travers, including the winner Country Grammer, who will bid to give four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown his first “Mid-Summer Derby” victory.

Country Grammer, owned by Paul Pompa, Jr., worked a sharp half-mile Saturday in 47.66 seconds in company with last year's Grade 1 Secretariat winner Valid Point.

A maiden winner at second asking when travelling nine furlongs in November at the Big A, Country Grammer was fifth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in his seasonal debut in February at Gulfstream. Following a closing third in a one-turn, 1 1/16-mile allowance event on June 4 at Belmont, Country Grammer made his return to two turns a winning one in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan on Opening Day July 16 at Saratoga.

Brown said the breeze, which was the colt's first since his Peter Pan win, went according to plan.

“The work went super. He's not a great work horse but for him it was one of the better works I've seen. He's gotten a lot stronger,” said Brown. “He's a May foal and he was always destined to fill out and get stronger as he goes along.”
Bred in Kentucky by Scott Pierce and Debbie Pierce, Brown said the bay son of 2014 Belmont Stakes-winner Tonalist should appreciate the additional furlong on Saturday.

“He's looking for more ground,” said Brown. “He's going to have to step it up obviously on short rest and the fact that it's a much tougher race. But the horse, physically, is doing everything you want him to do. We're excited to participate and give him a shot.”

Listed at 6-1, Irad Ortiz, Jr. will have the call from post 2.

Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing's Caracaro was the Peter Pan runner-up, a neck behind Country Grammer. Conditioned by Gustavo Delgado, the son of Uncle Mo ran second in his debut in December at Gulfstream at seven furlongs and broke his maiden with a six-length win at one mile on January 11 at the Florida track before taking the step up in class last month.

Delgado has won his native Venezuela's equivalent of the Triple Crown with Taconeo in 2007 and Water Jet in 2010. He will bid for Saratoga glory with Caracaro, who is listed at 10-1.

Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano holds a record six Travers wins, two more than the next-closest competitors all-time, and will aim for No. 7, piloting Caracaro from post 7.

Jacks or Better Farm's Shivaree ran second to Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and will make his first start at Saratoga after compiling two stakes wins, capping his 2-year-old year with a victory in the Buffalo Man at Gulfstream Park and starting 2020 with a Limehouse win on January 4 at Gulfstream.

Trained by Ralph Nicks, Shivaree, a son of Awesome of Course, is listed at 30-1 with Junior Alvarado set to ride from post 5.

South Bend, the runner-up to Dean Martini in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last out on June 27 at Thistledown, will make his first start for his new connections. Owners Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch and Pantofel Stable acquired South Bend and transferred him to the care of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

South Bend, an Algorithms colt, will go for his first graded stakes win, drawing post 8 with Jose Ortiz. He is listed at 15-1.

First Line will make his first stakes appearance in his fifth career start for trainer Orlando Noda, who also co-owns the First Samurai gelding with his brother Jonathan as part of Noda Brothers, LLC.

First Line broke his maiden at fourth asking on July 29 at the Spa and will return off a quick turnaround looking to give the 31-year-old Noda his first career stakes winner. David Cohen will ride from post 1 at 30-1.

“I think we got a perfect post,” Noda said. “He's going to come out running when the gates open and he might just fight the whole mile and a quarter. It is a quick turnaround, but I've hyped this horse up from before he even debuted. These are my points for the Derby. He's a longshot for a reason but he's going to outrun his odds and, God willing, we will win this race.”

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‘I’ve Never Seen Him Take A Deep Breath’: Tagg Unconcerned About Travers Distance With Tiz The Law

Trainer Barclay Tagg is looking forward to Saturday's Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga with even money morning-line favorite Tiz The Law, and he doesn't believe the 1 1/4-mile distance will be a problem for the 3-year-old son of Constitution.

“He's done everything we've asked him to do,” Tagg told NYRA publicity after Wednesday's post position draw. “We've been very fortunate. I don't think any distance makes a difference for this horse. From what I've seen, I just don't have any feeling that he can't handle it. It would be nice to win it if we could.

“I've never seen him take a deep breath. I've never had him out of breath after a workout. I've never had him way out of breath after a race and he [cools] off very quickly. His lungs settle right down and nothing seems to be a hazard. I could be all wrong in that. It might change in another eighth of a mile, I don't know, but I've got no reason to worry about it.”

Tiz the Law will break from post position six in a field of eight, and the Sackatoga Stable colt will be ridden by regular jockey Manny Franco.

“I think he's matured enough now that outside or inside is not going to bother him too much,” said Tagg of the post. “I'd prefer that he's on the outside just because you have less chance of getting in trouble. Not that you can't, but you have less chance. I think post 6 is fine. Five would have been fine. Four would have been fine. Any of those three would have been fine with me.”

The Belmont Stakes and Florida Derby winner has a total of 272 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and tops the current leaderboard approaching the rescheduled classic on Sept. 5. The $1 million Travers will offer 100-40-20-10 points to the top-four finishers.

With four weeks between the Travers and the Run for the Roses, Tiz the Law will face a field that includes lightly-raced Bob Baffert trainee Uncle Chuck, last-out winner of the Los Alamitos Derby.

“Bob Baffert does very, very well,” Tagg said. “He's got fresh stock all the time and good horses, so you've always got to be concerned. But if you let the concern bother you too much, you wouldn't be racing horses. You can't worry about that. All I worry about his having my horse get there the best we can get him there. He's done everything we've asked him to do.”

The full field for the Travers is as follows:

First Line – Orlando Noda – David Cohen (30-1)
Country Grammer – Chad Brown – Irad Ortiz, Jr. (6-1)
Uncle Chuck – Bob Baffert – Luis Saez (5-2)
Max Player – Linda Rice – Joel Rosario (6-1)
Shivaree – Ralph Nicks – Junior Alvarado (30-1)
Tiz the Law – Barclay Tagg – Manny Franco (1-1)
Caracaro – Gustavo Delgado – Javier Castellano (10-1)
South Bend – Bill Mott – Jose Ortiz (15-1)

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