After Whitney Loss, Tom’s D’Etat Tied With Maximum Security Atop Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings

San Diego Handicap (G2) winner Maximum Security and Tom's d'Etat, third in the Whitney Stakes (G1), are tied for first place with 281 votes in the 2020 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, a weekly poll of the top 10 horses in contention for the $7 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which is scheduled to be held at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington on Nov. 7.

The Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of leading Thoroughbred racing media, horseplayers and members of the Breeders' Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel. Rankings will be announced each week through Oct. 13. A list of voting members can be found here.

In the Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, each voter rates horses on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system in descending order.

Owned by Gary and Mary West, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, the 4-year-old Maximum Security moved up from second place last week to tie for the top spot. A winner in his first start for trainer Bob Baffert in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on July 25, Maximum Security is being pointed to the “Win and You're In” TVG Pacific Classic (G1) on Aug. 22, which will give the winner an automatic berth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic.

Tom's d'Etat, owned by Gayle Benson's GMB Racing, had been alone atop the Classic Rankings for the first two weeks. A 7-year-old bay son of Smart Strike, trained by Al Stall Jr., Tom's d'Etat had won four consecutive races, including the “Win and You're In” Stephen Foster (G2) prior to the Whitney at Saratoga, but stumbled at the start and could not overcome breaking last from the gate on Saturday, and wound up third.

The big mover in the rankings this week is the Whitney winner, Improbable (243 votes), who jumped from ninth to third place in the poll. Owned by WinStar Farm, CHC Inc. and SF Racing, Improbable is also trained by Baffert. The 4-year-old chestnut son of City Zip earned a “Win and You're In” automatic starting position into the Breeders' Cup Classic following his 2-length victory in the Whitney under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The win was Improbable's second Grade 1 triumph this year after taking the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law (208 votes), one of two 3-year-olds in the top 10, remains in fourth place. Unbeaten in three starts this year, the Sackatoga Stable's star, trained by Barclay Tagg, is scheduled to start in this Saturday's Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards (144 votes), second in the Whitney, moves up two spots to fifth place. Trained by Bret Calhoun, By My Standards won the New Orleans Handicap (G2) and the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) before finishing second to Tom's d'Etat in the Stephen Foster.

W.S. Farish's 4-year-old Code of Honor (117 votes) drops from third to sixth this week after finishing a non-threatening fourth as the 5-2 second choice in the Whitney.

Bloom Racing, Madaket Stables and Allen Racing's 5-year-old mare Midnight Bisou (95 votes) was upset by Vexatious in Saratoga's Personal Ensign (G1) on Saturday, losing by a neck as the odds-on favorite. The Steve Asmussen-trained dark bay daughter of two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Midnight Lute falls two spots to No. 7.

Juddmonte Farms' 4-year-old Tacitus (93 votes) retains eighth place in the Classic Rankings for the third consecutive week. Trained by Bill Mott, Tacitus rolled to an 8 ¾-length victory in the Suburban Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park on July 4. He is expected to run next in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga on Sept. 5.

The 4-year-old Vekoma, trained by George Weaver, moves up one spot to ninth place this week. Owned by R.A Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables, Vekoma is unbeaten in three starts this year, including two wins in Breeders' Cup Challenge Series races: the Runhappy Carter Handicap (G1), for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), and the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1), for the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Rounding out the top 10 is a new shooter in Bruce Lunsford's 3-year-old Art Collector. Unbeaten in three start this year, including the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on July 11, Art Collector is expected to start in Sunday's Ellis Park Derby for trainer Tom Drury Jr.

CRK Stable's 3-year-old Honor A. P., second in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, dropped from sixth to 11th place.

Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings – Aug. 4, 2020*

RANK HORSE TOTAL VOTES FIRST-PLACE VOTES
1 Maximum Security 281 13
1 Tom's d'Etat 281 13
3 Improbable 243 2
4 Tiz the Law 208 2
5 By My Standards 144 0
6 Code of Honor 117 1
7 Midnight Bisou 95 0
8 Tacitus 93 0
9 Vekoma 72 2
10 Art Collector 61 0

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Pointing To Forego, Vekoma Takes Over NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

With Midnight Bisou and Tom's d'Etat both suffering defeats in their respective Grade 1 races at Saratoga Race Course this past weekend, multiple top-level winner Vekoma gained the majority of support among voters to move into the No. 1 position on the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll.

Vekoma has been flawless in his 4-year-old campaign to date, winning all three of his outings including victories in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap and Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. The son of Candy Ride (ARG) surged to the top of this week's poll with 13 first-place votes and 321 total points and is expected to make his next start in the Grade 1, $300,000 Forego on August 29 at Saratoga.

“We're trying to make it to the Breeders' Cup and the Forego is the most logical next spot,” trainer George Weaver told the NYRA publicity team regarding Vekoma. “So far, everything's looking good and we're looking forward to getting him back to the races. The sky's the limit for him.”

Tom's d'Etat could have made a case to move into the No. 1 slot with a victory in last Saturday's Grade Whitney Stakes but the 7-year-old stumbled out of the gate en route to a third-place finish. The son of Smart Strike still earned 6 first-place votes and 299 points to hold onto the No. 2 spot while his Whitney conqueror Improbable moved into the third position with 6 first-place votes and 278 points.

Champion Maximum Security (9 first-place votes, 256 points) maintains the fourth spot while fellow Eclipse Award-winner Midnight Bisou – who had held the top spot in the poll since March 10 – dropped to fifth with 1 first-place vote and 248 points after she finished second as the favorite behind Vexatious in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes.

Zulu Alpha (140 points) ranks sixth followed by Monomoy Girl, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2018, in seventh with 2 first-place votes and 120 points. Top-ranked sophomore Tiz the Law ranks eighth with 3 first-place votes and 118 points while By My Standards (112 points) and Volatile (56) round out the top 10.

Ahead of his expected run in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday, Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law remains the clear choice in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll with 40 first-place votes and 400 total points. Honor A. P., who finished second in the Shared Belief Stakes on August 1, holds onto the No. 2 spot with 300 points.

Grade 1 Haskell Stakes victor Authentic (280 points) sits third followed by Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector (276), who is expected to be the heavy favorite in the Ellis Park Derby on August 9.

Los Alamitos Derby victor Uncle Chuck (180 points) ranks fifth ahead of his planned start in the Travers Stakes while stablemate Thousand Words (138) rejoins the top 10 in sixth following his victory in the Shared Belief Stakes.

Haskell runner-up Ny Traffic (112 points) ranks seventh followed by King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, in eighth with 106 points. Sophomore fillies Swiss Skydiver (89 points) and Gamine (84) complete the top 10.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in both the Top Three-Year-Old Poll and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup in November.

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Week in Review: Faves Fail to Show on Saturday, but Excuses Abound

This past Saturday wasn’t a great day to be a favorite in an open stakes race at the nation’s premier race meets. Chalk horses went a collective one-for-seven at Saratoga and Del Mar, and the list of excuses included stutter-step starts, bumps leaving the gate, stretch-run roughhousing, getting disqualified, and being dueled into defeat in internal pace battles.

Tight finishes in several stakes elevated the interest level, although the results in general did not lend clarity to the nationwide divisional races with the GI Kentucky Derby inside the five-week mark and the Breeders’ Cup Championships now three months out.

At the Spa, faves went zero-for-five, with the GI Personal Ensign S. setting the tone early in the day. The 9-1 Vexatious (Giant’s Causeway), who hadn’t won since scoring in a 1 3/8 miles turf stakes at Del Mar two summers ago, ran the race of her life at age six while attending the pace over nine furlongs on dirt. She got first run on a tiring speedster, then braced for the onslaught of heavy favorite Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). Last year’s distaff champ looked like she’d inhale the determined bay, but Vexatious dug in for a spirited fight, shifting outward and exchanging bumps in deep stretch before prevailing by a neck and surviving a foul claim and inquiry.

The win was a first Grade I triumph for both Vexatious and trainer Jack Sisterson, who also picked up his first career win at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign. Vexatious earned an automatic entry to the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 7 at Keeneland, where Sisterson is primarily based.

In the nine-furlong GI Whitney S., the 3-1 Improbable (City Zip), who has a history of getting hot and bothered in the starting gate, held up the start. The Bob Baffert trainee eventually settled down, but the delay might have contributed to the unraveling of even-money favorite Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), who missed the break and came out four lengths behind the field. This altered the pace complexion of the Whitney, leaving 29-1 long shot Mr. Buff (Friend or Foe) sailing solo on the lead through soft splits with Improbable tracking in second and Tom’s d’Etat relegated to the back of the pack.

Improbable, on his way to a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, swatted away Mr. Buff at will on the far turn, opening up by two lengths in the stretch under steady urging. By My Standards (Goldencents) picked up the pieces in second. Tom’s d’Etat checked in third, ending his four-race winning streak, but with an asterisk attached because of his trip woes.

The 7-1 upset by Echo Town (Speightstown) in the seven-furlong GI H. Allen Jerkens S. Presented by Runhappy didn’t at all seem fluky despite another favorite–the 2-1 No Parole (Violence)–faltering. The Jerkens was a deep 11-horse affair, and Echo Town broke with alacrity and was initially within three lengths of a hotly contested lead. But he settled nicely at the tail of the main flight on the inside, then edged outward for clear passage, commencing a rally a half-mile out that quickly picked off most of the pack.

The leaders lined up four across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Echo Town’s widest bid included a deep-stretch resurgence that none of his peers could match, and the Steve Asmussen trainee ended up drilling a pretty good bunch of 3-year-old sprinters by 3 1/2 lengths.

Shifting, drifting, bumping, and grinding through the final furlong of the GII Bowling Green S. at 11 furlongs on the turf affected five of the six starters, and the stewards placed the blame on Sadler’s Joy (Kitten’s Joy), who was DQ’d from his neck win and placed fourth. New York-bred Cross Border (English Channel) was elevated to victory after crossing the wire second. The result could portend a nice August start at the Spa for New York-breds, as fellow state-bred Tiz the Law (Constitution) figures to start heavily favored in this Saturday’s GI Runhappy Travers S.

In the nightcap, 4-1 Cariba (Cairo Prince), completed the stakes blanking of Spa faves with a half-length tally in the Caress S. over 5 1/2 furlongs on the lawn.

 

Meanwhile, on the Left Coast…

Honor A. P. (Honor Code) looked flat and unmotivated when checking in second at 1-5 odds in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. But even before he encountered trip trouble on the track, the pre-race vibe signaled that this could be a “trap” race for the top West Coast candidate for the Kentucky Derby.

Honor A. P., who previously performed like a more-distance-the-better type of 3-year-old, was cutting back half a furlong to 1 1/16 miles from his GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, and the dynamics of the four-horse Shared Belief meant that the ridgling would have be closer to the pace than was ideal for his running style. It didn’t help that Cezanne (Curlin) swerved directly into him at the gate break, and jockey Mike Smith (as he often does aboard odds-on favorites in route races) guided Honor A. P. to the back and outside of trouble, even though this meant giving up three paths of real estate into the clubhouse bend.

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), meanwhile, broke fluidly and settled in at the fence to be the 9-1 pacemaker. Entering the backstretch, Honor A. P. advanced under his own power to shadow the speed a half-length back, but Cezanne again became a pesky presence about a half mile out when he pushed up from between rivals to claim second, causing Honor A. P. to lose a position while edging outward again for another three-deep journey through the far turn.

Cezanne narrowly led off the bend, but Thousand Words punched back under urging at the rail while Honor A. P. couldn’t gain any traction on the outside. Honor A. P. re-engaged late to finish second, three-quarters of a length behind Thousand Words. But his resurgence had more to do with Cezanne backpedaling out of the picture than it did with Honor A. P. finding that unmatchable late gear he displayed in his Santa Anita Derby win.

In the aftermath of the Shared Belief, Thousand Words (104 Beyer) has regained some of his early-season luster after the Bob Baffert trainee fell off the Derby radar for a stretch between March and June. But Honor A. P. is likely to emerge as the more dangerous threat heading to Louisville, because trainer John Shirreffs didn’t have him fully cranked for his final Derby prep, and nothing about his taxing trip worked in his favor.

Later on the card, the 19-10 Collusion Illusion (Twirling Candy) emerged as the lone unscathed favorite on Saturday’s slate of national stakes, rallying from out of the clouds (or out of the Del Mar fog, to be more precise) to nail a GI Bing Crosby S. photo-finish win by a nose after patiently watching a six-way scramble for the lead disintegrate. The Mark Glatt trainee was the lone 3-year-old in the six-furlong field of nine.

 

Turfway Park Update

During the same earnings conference call last Thursday in which Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI) chief executive officer Bill Carstanjen detailed long-term plans for the gaming corporation’s desire to rid itself of Arlington International Racecourse, Carstanjen also provided an update to the redevelopment of Turfway Park and its “extension” betting facility a dozen miles to the northeast in Newport, Kentucky, that will be generating purse money for the track’s Dec. 2-31 holiday meet.

“We finished demolishing the existing grandstand at Turfway Park in the second quarter, and the racetrack itself with a new state-of-the-art artificial racing surface called Tapeta will be completed by the end of August,” Carstanjen said. “During the second quarter, we completed the architectural design and site development plans. We will begin construction of the new horse racing machine (HRM) and grandstand facility as soon as we obtain the required permits and complete the necessary site improvements. The updated design reflects a floor plan of approximately 155,000 square feet and includes a simulcast facility, a racing grandstand and event space for groups and banquets, racehorse owner and VIP player accommodations; 44,500 square feet of gaming floor that can accommodate up to 1,200 HRMs, and three food and beverage venues, including a sports bar designed to accommodate sports wagering in the event it is approved in Kentucky.

“Based on the finalization of the design for the facility, total project capital for Turfway Park is projected to be approximately $200 million, which includes the Turfway Park acquisition costs and other previously approved capital. This capital investment will be completed over the next 15 to 18 months. The increase of approximately $45 million over previously provided estimates is primarily driven by increased site work requirements and a larger racing and gaming facility. Our team completed an additional analysis of the Northern Kentucky market and believes that the market demographics and competitive landscape can clearly support this level of investment and will generate a strong return on capital for our shareholders.

“With respect to our Turfway Park extension in Newport, Kentucky, we’ve made excellent progress on this project. Our team has completed all of the site work and the structural improvements needed to the building. We anticipate that the additional interior construction will be completed by the end of September in preparation for a grand opening [with up to 500 HRMs] by early October. This timing will provide two months of operations to generate much needed purse money for Turfway Park’s December live Thoroughbred race meet.”

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Improbable Takes Whitney After Stumbling Start By Favored Tom’s D’Etat

Improbable notched his second consecutive Grade 1 on Saturday, taking advantage of a bad stumble at the start by favorite Tom's d'Etat to win the $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the 4-year-old City Zip colt sat off pacesetter Mr. Buff, took took command into the stretch and won easily by about two lengths over By My Standards. After his bad start, Tom's d'Etat rallied to be third, with Code of Honor and Mr. Buff rounding out the field of five.

Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, covered 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.65 and paid $8.50 for the win — his sixth in 13 career starts. A G1 winner at two of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2019, concluding his year with a fifth-place finish behind Spun to Run in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

He came back in 2020 with a close second behind Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile and then returned to Southern California to win the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

Plagued by gate problems throughout his career, Improbable was fractious while waiting for the gates to open but broke smoothly. Tom's d'Etat, however, went to his knees at the start under Joel Rosario and was several lengths behind the field by the time he recovered.

Mr. Buff led the way through slow fractions of :25.12, :49.74 and 1:13.36, with Improbable his closest pursuer in the run down the backstretch. Tom's d'Etat trailed.

Approaching the far turn, Ortiz asked Improbable for run, and the colt responded. He led into the stretch, the mile in 1:36.53 and was geared down in the final yards.

Produced from the A.P. Indy mare, Rare Event, Improbable was bred in Kentucky by St George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr.

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