Tim Parkin | Horse Racing Free Tips

Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit to be Held at UK

The 11th Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit will be held June 25 from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the Longship Room at Kroger Field on the campus of the University of Kentucky. The event, which is free and open to the public, will be co-hosted by the University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment and The Jockey Club.

Annise Montplaisir, equine education coordinator of the Kentucky Equine Education Project Foundation and president of Amplify Horse Racing, will emcee the event, which will be livestreamed.

Topics for the summit include a presentation by Dr. Tim Parkin on the latest statistics from the Equine Injury Database, work being done by state veterinarians, harmonizing pre-race inspections, track surfaces, and other issues affecting horse safety.

“Keeneland has always been a great host. When its construction coincided with this year's summit, Dr. Nancy Cox, dean of the University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment, immediately stepped up to host the summit,” said Jamie Haydon, president of Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation and deputy executive director of The Jockey Club. “Dr. Cox and UK have been great partners with The Jockey Club and Grayson on multiple projects, and we look forward to working with them on our 2024 summit. I am certain they will be an excellent host.”

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Slight Uptick in Rate of Fatal Injuries in 2023

According to numbers compiled by The Jockey Club for its Equine Injury Database (EID), there were 1.32 fatalities per 1,000 starts at North American racetracks in 2023. That was slightly worse than in 2022 when the number was 1.25, the lowest rate of fatalities since The Jockey Club started compiling numbers in 2009. It was the first time the number had increased year-over-year since 2018 when there were 1.68 fatalities per 1,000 starters.

Nonetheless, the figures showed that the sport has made obvious strides since 2009 when it comes to fatalities. In 2009, the rate was 2.0 per 1,000 starters. When compared to 2009, 2023 shows a 34% decrease in risk of fatal injury.

“This change is statistically significant,” said Professor Tim Parkin (University of Bristol), who has consulted on the EID since its inception. “This is equivalent to 171 fewer horses sustaining a fatal injury racing in 2023 than would have occurred had the number of starts remained constant since 2009.”

The 2023 figures were the second lowest since the EID began compiling numbers, surpassed only by 2022.

Analysis of the EID was provided Parkin and by Dr. Euan Bennet of the University of Glasgow.

“There was a slight increase in the rate of fatality from 2022 to 2023 of 5.6%,” Parkin said. “However, this is not statistically significant, and we are encouraged by the low numbers in 2023 that the industry is still headed in the right direction with regard to keeping its horses safe.”

Based on the 2023 data, 99.87% of flat racing starts at the racetracks participating in the EID were completed without a fatality.

Once again, synthetic tracks proved to be the safest among the three types of racing surfaces. There were 0.97 deaths per 1,000 starters on synthetic tracks, 1.13 on turf courses, and 1.43 on dirt tracks.

Races for 2-year-olds proved to be the safest types of races. There were 0.79 fatalities per 1,000 starters in those races versus 1.37 for 3-year-old races and 1.38 for races for 4-year-olds an upward.

By distance, races run at less than six furlongs showed the fewest fatalities at 1.22 per 1,000. Races run from six to eight furlongs had a rate of 1.37 and for races longer than eight furlongs, the number was 1.32.

During the year, the problems of horses breaking down were magnified by a rash of fatalities at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. At Saratoga in 2023, the rate of breakdowns was 2.55 per 1,000 starters. Churchill Downs does not make its numbers public.

Among tracks that had meets of more than 10 days, one stood out. There were zero fatalities at Del Mar during its racing seasons.

Racetracks under the jurisdiction of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) fared better than non-HISA tracks in 2023. There were 1.23 fatalities per 1,000 starters at HISA tracks, while the number at non-HISA track was 1.63.

“HISA's most important goal is driving down equine fatalities,” said HISA CEO Lisa Lazarus. “We undoubtedly have significant work ahead of us, but I am pleased to see the rate is trending in the right direction. The reduction in the rate of equine fatalities at tracks under our jurisdiction demonstrates that setting high standards for racetrack safety and anti-doping and medication control across the country makes Thoroughbred racing safer.”

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Are Horses More Likely to Break Down on Wet Tracks? The Stats Say No

Are wet tracks more dangerous than dry ones? According to statistics compiled by the Jockey Club, the answer is no.

The TDN reached out to The Jockey Club and asked it to dig into the Equine Injury Database and provide us with statistics regarding breakdowns and various dirt track and turf course conditions. The study was conducted by Dr. Euan Bennet and Professor Tim Parkin and covered the years 2021 and 2022.

On the dirt, there were 419 fatalities on tracks listed as fast during those years from 308,954 starts. That comes out to 1.36 deaths per 1,000 starts. The numbers varied little on tracks listed as something other than fast. Below are the statistics covering all track designations:

Condition       Starts              Fatalities          Fatalities Per 1k starts
Fast                  308,954                 419 1.36
Frozen              29 0 0.00
Good                22,147 38 1.72
Heavy               95 0 0.00
Muddy             17,936 22 1.23
Sloppy              25,085                   36                                 1.44
Slow                  58                           0 0.00
Wet Fast         2,541 3 1.18

The possibility that track conditions were a factor in breakdowns came into play in 2019 when 30 horses died at Santa Anita in what was an unusually wet period in Southern California. Since, 1/ST racing, which owns Santa Anita, has been cautious when it comes to inclement weather and has, on a number of occasions, canceled racing on days when there has been a lot of rain.

When it comes to turf racing, the numbers look similar. On courses listed as firm there were 91 fatalities from 81,434 starts. That comes out to 1.12 deaths per 1,000 starts, again, in line with all other course conditions. Below are the statistics covering course conditions in the grass.

Condition       Starts              Fatalities          Fatalities Per 1k starts
Firm                  81,434                   91 1.12
Good                12,542                   9 0.72
Soft                   175 0                                   0.0
Yielding            1,567                     2 1.28

“For the two years of data studied–2021 and 2022–there were no statistically significant differences in incidences of fatality found to be associated with track condition on either dirt or turf surfaces, Bennet and Parkin concluded.

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Rate Of Fatal Injuries Lowest On Database Record

The rate of fatal injuries in 2022 was 1.25 horses per 1,000 starts, a 10.1% decrease from 2021 when there were 1.39 fatalities per 1,000 starts according to figures complied by the Equine Injury Database (EID) and released Monday by the Jockey Club. It was the lowest number since the EID began covering the fatality rate in 2009, when the figure was 2.00 horses per 1,000 starts.

“The data shows that since 2009, the risk of fatal injury during racing has declined by 37.5%, which is statistically significant,” said professor Tim Parkin of the University of Glasgow, who has consulted on the EID since its inception. “The overall downward trends are testament to the benefits of an evidence-based approach to safety, which is only possible thanks to the EID.”

Since 2018, the rate of fatal injury has dropped from 1.68 to 1.25, a decline of 25.6%. The 2022 numbers marked the fourth straight years that the risk of fatal injury has fallen.

“We can say with confidence that the risk of fatal injury is heading in a sustained downward direction both overall and in many specific areas,” Parkin said. “The six-month period from July 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, was the safest six-month period on record since the inception of the EID in 2009. This evidence of positive progress is very encouraging and should be applauded by everyone in North American racing.”

There were just 12 fatalities in races run over synthetic surfaces in 2021, which worked out to a rate of 0.41 fatalities per 1,000 starters, making it, easily, the safest surface. Turf races were next at 0.99, followed by dirt races at 1.44. Races run at more than 8 furlongs were the safest at 0.86. Races run at 6 to 8 furlongs were next at 1.31, followed by races run at less than 6 furlongs at 1.38. Races for 2-year-olds were the safest in the age group at a rate of 0.98. Three-year-old races were next at 1.13, followed by races for 4-year-olds and upward at 1.34. The 3-year-old figure was notable as it showed a 25.7% decline from 2021 and that the figure was as high as 2.08 in 2014.

Since March 2012, racetracks have been able to voluntarily publish their statistics from the EID on The Jockey Club website. The racetracks that publish their EID statistics reported racing fatalities per 1,000 starts of 0.99 as compared to 1.42 for those that do not publish.

Some of the most notable gains have come at the Southern California tracks. At Santa Anita, the figure for 2022 was 0.63, down from 1.45 in 2021. Even more significantly, the rate of breakdowns has dropped considerably since 2019 when the number was 3.01, an alarmingly high rate that led to outcries from animal rights activists and politicians. At Del Mar in 2022, there were 0.56 fatalities per 1,000 starts. In 2016, the number was 3.01.

The trend at Keeneland was also a positive one, at 0.33. In 2019, the figure at Keeneland was 3.21.

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