Thursdays Horse Racing tips | Horse Racing Free Tips

Close Brothers Mares Hurdle Stats

Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats

The following analysis uses the primary trends from the last 12 years (2014–2025) to evaluate the 2026 contenders.

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

Irish Dominance: 10 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland.
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 11 renewals in total (5 in the last 10 years).
Official Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Age Profile: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
Last Time Out: 9 of the last 12 winners won or finished 2nd on their previous start.
Market Strength: 9 of the last 12 winners were returned at 6/1 or shorter.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Wodhooh (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 10/10. The 6-year-old Irish mare is the highest-rated in the field (154) and fits every major trend. She is a previous Festival winner (2025 Martin Pipe) and has won 9 of her 10 starts over hurdles. Her only defeat came against the absent superstar Lossiemouth.
Verdict: She is the “statistically perfect” horse for this race. Her tactical versatility and Course & Distance (C&D) winning form make her the one to beat.

2. Jade De Grugy (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 9/10. Representing the most successful trainer in the race’s history. She was 2nd in this race last year (behind Lossiemouth) and is rated 150. While she has spent this season over fences, the trend of high-class mares reverting from chasing to win this race is well-established (e.g., Benie Des Dieux).
Verdict: The clear danger. As the sole representative of the Mullins yard, historical stats suggest she will be peak-fit and highly competitive on drying ground.

3. Feet Of A Dancer (Trainer: Paul Nolan | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe)

Trends Fit: 7/10. An Irish-trained 7-year-old who won her last start (Grade 2 at Doncaster). However, she is rated 141, which is significantly lower than the typical winner’s profile of 150+. She was also beaten by Wodhooh earlier this season.
Verdict: A solid each-way contender who rarely runs a bad race but may lack the “Grade 1 engine” required to trouble the top two.

4. Take No Chances (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 6/10. The leading British hope. She was 3rd in this race last year and is an 8-year-old, placing her just outside the ideal 5–7 age bracket. While consistent, her current rating of 145 suggests she needs a career-best performance.
Verdict: Consistent place prospect but historical stats favour the younger Irish-trained mares for the top spot.

5. Jetara (Trainer: Mrs John Harrington | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. An 8-year-old who has struggled for a win this season (0 from 4). Although Irish-trained and 4th in this race last year, she hasn’t shown the progression needed to bridge the gap to the 150-rated rivals.
Verdict: Likely to battle for minor honours but faces an uphill task to win.

6. Dream On Baby (Trainer: Emmet Mullins | Jockey: Donagh Meyler)

Trends Fit: 4/10. A 6-year-old rated 139. While she is Irish-trained and won a Listed race at Kempton in November, she has been comfortably beaten by both Wodhooh and Feet Of A Dancer in subsequent starts.
Verdict: Improvement required; stats suggest she is outclassed here.

7. Sunset Marquesa (Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell)

Trends Fit: 2/10. A British-trained outsider rated 129. She fails to meet the ratings, trainer, or form trends associated with winners of this Grade 1 contest.
Verdict: The rank outsider with significant ground to make up on the principals.

Order of Preference

1. Wodhooh (Strongest trend match and class leader)
2. Jade De Grugy (The “Mullins Factor” and proven C&D form)
3. Feet Of A Dancer (Best of the rest with upward momentum)
4. Take No Chances (Reliable place candidate)
5. Jetara
6. Dream On Baby
7. Sunset Marquesa

Ryanair Chase Grade 1 Stats

Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Stats

The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course over 2 miles and 4 furlongs typically plays into the hands of a horse with “speed-stamina” versatility—those who find 2 miles too sharp but 3 miles a fraction too far.

The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Class/Rating: 12 out of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher. This is strictly a race for established elite chasers.
Cheltenham Factor: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, and 9 of those had already won at the track.
Grade 1 Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had a Grade 1 victory already on their CV.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice earlier that season.
The “Mullins/Nicholls” Grip: These two trainers have accounted for 6 of the last 12 winners.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Fact To File (Age: 7 | NR: 185.5)

The Verdict: He is the quintessential Ryanair horse. At 7 years old, he is in the peak age bracket. He is already a Festival winner (2024 Brown Advisory) and his Neural Rating of 185.5 is the highest recorded in this division for three years. He fits the “Course Winner” and “Grade 1 Winner” trends perfectly. His tactical speed on Good to Soft ground is arguably his greatest weapon.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Jonbon (Age: 12 | NR: 152.0)

The Verdict: A high-class operator, but he is now moving into the “veteran” category at age 12. Only one horse in the last 12 years has won this aged older than 9 (Envoi Allen at 9, and Frodon at 7). While his NR is strong and his class is undeniable, history suggests he may struggle to hold off a younger, peaking improver like Fact To File.
Trend Score: 8/10 (Age is a significant trend negative).

3. Impaire Et Passe (Age: 8 | NR: 108.2)

The Verdict: He fits the age trend (8) and the “Mullins-trained” trend. He has a Festival win to his name (Baring Bingham) and has the cruising speed for 2.5 miles. While his NR in chasing is lower than Jonbon’s, his trend profile for this specific race is arguably cleaner as an 8-year-old “bridger” of distances.
Trend Score: 9/10

4. Banbridge (Age: 10 | NR: 66.3)

The Verdict: A specialist on Good to Soft/Good ground. He skipped the race in previous years due to soft ground, so conditions are finally in his favour. However, at age 10, he is just outside the preferred age bracket. His jumping is his main asset, but his NR suggests he lacks the “X-factor” speed of the favourite.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Matata (Age: 7 | NR: 72.3)

The Verdict: A bold, front-running type who fits the age profile. He will likely lead the field and test the jumping of others. However, he lacks the Grade 1 win trend (11 of the last 12 winners had one) and his rating suggests he is a high-end handicapper rather than a genuine Ryanair king.
Trend Score: 6/10

6. Master Chewy (Age: 9 | NR: 64.7)

The Verdict: A consistent performer in Grade 1 company this year, but he has become somewhat “exposed.” He fits the age profile but lacks the “Season Win” trend that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 5/10

7. JPR One (Age: 9 | NR: 59.8)

The Verdict: Similar to Master Chewy, he is a solid Grade 2/3 horse who has struggled to make the breakthrough at the top level. He fits the age and course-experience trends but fails the “Rating 161+” class threshold.
Trend Score: 4/10

8. Heart Wood (Age: 8 | NR: 55.7)

The Verdict: Winner of the Leopardstown Handicap Chase in 2024, but his transition to Grade 1 level has been steady rather than spectacular. He is the right age, but lacks the “Grade 1 Winner” trend.
Trend Score: 4/10

9. Croke Park (Age: 8 | NR: 64.3)

The Verdict: Likely to find this trip a bit of a “sprint” against specialists. He fits the age profile but lacks the tactical speed seen in previous winners like Allaho or Un De Sceaux.
Trend Score: 3/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Fact To File (The standout trend and statistical selection)
2. Impaire Et Passe (The “Mullins” alternative)
3. Jonbon (The class play, despite age concerns)
4. Banbridge (The ground specialist)

Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle Stats

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats

The going is currently Good to Soft. This race is on the New Course, which places an extreme premium on stamina and the ability to jump fluently while under pressure on the final climb.

The 12-Year Trends: Stayers’ Hurdle

Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. Younger legs have historically outstayed the veterans.
Recent Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start.
Class: 11 of the last 12 winners had an Official Rating of 156 or higher.
Festival Pedigree: 10 of the last 12 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, with 8 having won or placed.
Betting: 8 of the last 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter in the betting.
Stayers’ Prep: The Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle and the Cleeve Hurdle remain the primary feeder races.

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Teahupoo (Age: 9 | NR: 168.4)

The Verdict: The 2024 winner and 2025 runner-up is the ultimate professional in this division. Despite being 9, he defies the age trend through sheer consistency. He comfortably beat Bob Olinger at Leopardstown in December and arrives fresh. He ticks the class (OR 163+), ground, and recent form boxes perfectly.
Trend Score: 9/10 (Age is the only minor negative).

2. Honesty Policy (Age: 6 | NR: 156.0)

The Verdict: The “trend pick” of the race. At age 6, he represents the profile of the classic improving stayer. He was a close third to Impose Toi at Ascot but has significant room for improvement over 3 miles. Being trained by Gordon Elliott adds further weight, given his recent record in the race.
Trend Score: 10/10

3. Kabral Du Mathan (Age: 6 | NR: 154.2)

The Verdict: An incredibly progressive type for Dan Skelton. He won the Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day with ease. While his rating (154) is just below the typical 156+ threshold, his “unexposed” nature makes him a dangerous contender. He meets the age and recent win trends.
Trend Score: 9/10

4. Bob Olinger (Age: 11 | NR: 163.0)

The Verdict: The defending champion. He is a Cheltenham legend with four wins at the track. However, at 11, he is trying to defy a massive historical trend; only two horses aged 10+ have won since 1986 (Sire Du Berlais and himself last year). His form is still top-tier, but the younger Elliott-trained pair may have more “toe” at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Ma Shantou (Age: 7 | NR: 154.0)

The Verdict: The winner of the Cleeve Hurdle over this course and distance. Winning the Cleeve is a massive trend positive (8 of the last 19 winners ran in it). He thrives on the New Course and is exactly the right age (7) to peak in this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

6. Impose Toi (Age: 8 | NR: 159.0)

The Verdict: Winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. He has the class (OR 159) and the stamina, but he was soundly beaten by Ma Shantou in the Cleeve Hurdle on softer ground. If the ground continues to dry toward “Good,” his chances increase significantly.
Trend Score: 7/10

7. Ballyburn (Age: 8 | NR: 160.0)

The Verdict: A fascinating addition for Willie Mullins. A former Baring Bingham winner who returns to hurdles after a mixed chasing campaign. While he has the class, he lacks a recent win (3rd last time out) and hasn’t yet proven he is a “grinding” 3-mile stayer at the highest level.
Trend Score: 6/10

8. Home By The Lee (Age: 11 | NR: 159.0)

The Verdict: A stalwart of the division who won at Gowran Park recently. However, he is aged 11 and has failed to win this in four previous attempts. He is a solid each-way player but unlikely to improve enough to beat the principles.
Trend Score: 5/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Teahupoo (The Class Master)
2. Honesty Policy (The Improving Youngster)
3. Kabral Du Mathan (The Progressive Threat)
4. Ma Shantou (The Course Specialist)

Jack Richards Novices Limited Handicap Chase Grade 2 Stats

Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) Stats

The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course usually requires a horse with a blend of high-end cruising speed and proven stamina over the 2 miles and 4 furlongs trip.

The 12-Year Trends: Golden Miller Novices’ Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Grade 1 Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had already run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher (Official Rating).
Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last start before the Festival.
Jumping: Efficiency is key; 11 of the last 12 winners had no more than 4 starts over fences (the “unexposed” factor).

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Sixmilebridge (NR: 166.7)

The Verdict: He is the “perfect” trend horse for 2026. Aged 7, he sits exactly in the preferred age bracket. His Neural Rating of 166.7 is significantly clear of the field, suggesting he is a Grade 1 horse running in a Limited Handicap. He has the required “unexposed” profile with only 3 chase starts and won emphatically last time out.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. The Bluesman (NR: 111.0)

The Verdict: A classic “Skelton” type improver. While his NR is lower than the top selection, he meets the criteria for having won his last start and possessing a rating that puts him in the high 140s/low 150s bracket. He handles Good to Soft ground and has the high jumping index (7.0) needed for the New Course.
Trend Score: 9/10

3. Stencil (NR: 83.7)

The Verdict: A highly consistent novice who has run in Graded company this season. He fits the trend for having a previous run at Cheltenham (Course Factor: 13). His NR of 83.7 is solid for this grade, though he may find the top two a little too well-handicapped.
Trend Score: 8/10

4. Western Knight (NR: 82.8)

The Verdict: He meets the age trend (7) and the season-form trend. His speed figures suggest he is best suited to 2 miles 4 furlongs on Good to Soft. He is a very efficient jumper (Jump Factor: 9), which is vital for maintaining position during the middle part of this race.
Trend Score: 8/10

5. Gold Dancer (NR: 78.3)

The Verdict: Trained by Willie Mullins, which is always a trend positive. However, his NR of 78.3 suggests he has a bit to find with the likes of Sixmilebridge. He is slightly more exposed than the typical winner of this race but cannot be discounted for a place.
Trend Score: 7/10

6. Jordans Cross (NR: 76.3)

The Verdict: A solid 6-year-old who fits the age profile. He is a strong traveller but the trends suggest that winners of this race usually possess a slightly higher “Class” (CP) factor than he currently shows.
Trend Score: 6/10

7. Slade Steel (NR: 75.0)

The Verdict: Winner of the Supreme in 2024, but his transition to fences has seen his rating stabilize rather than soar. While he has the “Cheltenham Factor,” the last 12 years suggest that horses who have become slightly “exposed” over fences find it harder to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10

8. Regent’s Stroll (NR: 71.8)

The Verdict: A promising type but his NR of 71.8 indicates he may be a year away from his peak for this specific championship race. He lacks the Grade 1/2 experience that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 4/10

Final Selection Summary

1. Sixmilebridge (Clear Class & Trend Standout)
2. The Bluesman (The Improving Danger)
3. Stencil (The Course Specialist)
4. Western Knight (The Jumping Efficiency Play)