The Factor | Horse Racing Free Tips

A Sire Waging War on Two Fronts

Call it the Japan factor. We've already seen it creating opportunities for breeders, after all, with Hard Spun–a still more direct conduit of Danzig blood, and arguably underpriced ever since his relaunch in Kentucky after a sojourn in Hokkaido. The Factor, however, is four years further behind in that process, and right now finds himself at an intriguing crossroads in his rehabilitation.

Having spent 2018 at Shizunai Stallion Station, the son of War Front had no American juveniles last year and will accordingly have no sophomore representation in 2022. That will obviously make it harder for the Lane's End stallion to generate the kind of domestic headlines required to arrest the attention of breeders. But there are two things that should help keep him in the game during a period when he might otherwise be expected only to tread water.

One is that his resumé, to this point, entitles The Factor to rely to an exceptional degree on his residual American stock, pending the (imminent) emergence of his first runners conceived after his return from Japan. The gray has a really striking record with mature horses–with the evergreen 8-year-old Bound for Nowhere, indeed, still flying the flag for his sire's very first crop after winning the GII Shakertown S. at Keeneland last year.

And that's useful context for the other stimulus to The Factor's cause, which might be harder for his promoters to keep in the foreground but certainly deserves an airing: the yield he has already achieved with his single Japanese crop, despite their deployment in a fashion dramatically different to that evolved, with their growing understanding of his stock, by American horsemen.

Technically eligible as a first-season sire in the Japanese rankings, The Factor had 19 juvenile winners in 2021, placing him fifth in the rookies' table. This tally was achieved from as many as 74 starters, albeit that was actually fewer than had represented any of the four above him. (The top two, indeed, gunned no fewer than 92 and 94 starters respectively!) The previous year, in contrast, American trainers had started less than half as many juveniles (34) by The Factor, and had pushed only half a dozen of those early enough, and hard enough, to win.

On the face of it, then, Japanese trainers appear to have fallen prey to pretty much the same misapprehension that contributed to an up-and-down start to this horse's home career.

Back in 2015, The Factor created such a buzz with his first yearlings into the ring–averaging a spectacular $143,499 off a $15,000 cover–that he was afforded the unusual distinction of a fee hike (to $25,000) before he had even launched his first runners. Somehow the market had decided that he would produce a stream of precocious youngsters, even though he had himself only made his debut on Nov. 28 (and broken his maiden a month later). To be fair, he was a sufficiently natural runner to promptly make all in both the GII San Vicente S. and GII Rebel S., before derailing from the Triple Crown trail and reverting to sprinting for his two Grade I wins.

In the event, with many immature yearlings having been put through the pinhooking ringer, The Factor had to settle for fifth in the 2016 freshmen's championship; and for 10th by winners, with 14 from 53 starters. (Albeit these included GI Chandelier S. winner Noted and Quoted.) Gradually, however, people figured out that he would reward a more patient approach. As his stock matured, so did The Factor's standing. He finished runner-up for the second-crop title; and by 2019, the year he had returned to Kentucky, he was bossing the fourth-crop table across all indices: 167 winners of $10.1 million, including 13 stakes winners/29 stakes performers. (The same year Union Rags and Maclean's Music, who have emerged from the same intake to command consistently higher fees, couldn't match those numbers even if combined together.)

There was a perfect snapshot of The Factor's developing profile that year when the 5-year-old Cistron, who had actually contributed a juvenile maiden win to his sire's freshman tally, crowned his ongoing improvement with success in the GI Bing Crosby S. By the end of the campaign, moreover, only Into Mischief and Kitten's Joy beat the 167 winners accumulated by The Factor.

The die was now cast. In 2020, The Factor missed making the top 10 living Kentucky stallions by a few cents; and while he proved a little lighter at the top end in 2021, by volume of winners he was beaten this time only by Into Mischief and Munnings. These are quite remarkable accomplishments for a stallion standing at $17,500.

Unlike so many of his commercially esteemed rivals, moreover, The Factor's output is not the result of enormous books. Its bedrock is–well, the second syllable of that word: Rock. Or substance, soundness, constitution. Not one of his Kentucky rivals can match his ability to get a named foal onto the racetrack, with a lifetime clip currently topping 88%. More Than Ready and the Airdrie stalwart Include get closest, at 85%, but there are some pretty expensive stallions bumping along in the low 70s. (The Factor gets fairly close to some of those even by his ratio of winners to named foals, touching 63%.)

The Factor's leading performer in 2021 was Charmaine's Mia, who won three graded stakes and placed in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Here, sure enough, was another showing striking improvement in her fourth campaign, having started out at two winning a maiden claimer. By now, then, we should all know what to expect of a sire entering his prime at 14. If his Japanese stock have been more aggressively campaigned in their youth, then it can only be auspicious that they have responded as well as they have. Because, with such hardiness on their side, they will surely keep building like their American kin.

“It was the classic case of a horse looking like he was going to be a big 2-year-old sire,” says Bill Farish of Lane's End, invited to reflect on The Factor's evolving profile here. “The hype was amazing, and very hard to live up to. He's done very well to be so successful after people had to readjust their sights, because I think he was really penalized that first year, when so many of them went to the 2-year-old sales. They just weren't ready for that kind of grind. I remember talking to [partner] George Bolton at the time, saying that [The Factor's sales debut] was kind of a mixed blessing because if they don't really thrive in that environment, it would hurt his numbers. And it did. But they came through anyway, because they're just so sound.”

Sending The Factor to Japan was a calculated risk. No doubt there were sound economic reasons for doing so, especially at a time when the domestic market was reappraising its initial assumptions. At the same time, the horse's migration locked a blip into his future momentum, one that perhaps contributed to a rather quieter yield at the yearling sales this time round. Farish duly urges breeders to consider the bigger picture, and anticipate the potential gains in The Factor's stature by the time foals conceived this spring come onto the market.

“Luckily, he's had 366 mares since he returned, so he's got quite a pipeline coming from the last three seasons,” he said. “That's important because it can take a while to recover from taking even one year off, and we know his production on the track will be down some this year. But I think he's the kind of exceptional horse that can pull it off. He's proven to be so consistent, and we're excited about bringing him back on track.

“Hopefully everyone will see what an impressive start his Japanese foals have made. It's hard to follow all the form over there, but I know they were quite happy with the book of mares they got [166] and they're certainly pleased with the results. Making the top five first-season sires over there is very impressive.”

Having shuttled three times to the Southern Hemisphere, and with top-class form on synthetics as well as dirt, The Factor is eligible to prove a significant international influence. After all, he comes from the first crop of one such, War Front, who was himself among the last sons of a still greater one, in Danzig.

Moreover The Factor offers modern breeders parallel compression of access to a damsire, shared with Galileo (Ire) and company, as internationally important as Miswaki.

“But while he does get turf horses, too, I think 17 of his 19 winners in Japan have been on the dirt,” Farish stressed. “I don't know if they've been targeting dirt races primarily, to start out, but they certainly handle it well.”

Bottom line is that his trademark resilience should allow The Factor not only to build on his prolific start in Japan, but to bridge the gap his migration will temporarily create in his domestic footprint.

“He does get 2-year-olds, but they stay around too,” Farish said. “It's just amazing, if you go down the list of his top performers, and see how many of them are four, five, six, even seven years old. It's not just one or two cases. All his top runners have kept right on going, to a degree I've really never seen. He gets sound horses–and that's half the battle, isn't it? They go on forever.

“All those [sire] lists are so useful, because people do tend to forget about stallions just below the top tier and they can see just how consistent he has been. With those percentages for starters and winners, he gives you a really good chance. The Factor is the definition of a value sire.”

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Value Sires for ’22, Part VII: Through the Crossroads

In reaching the penultimate instalment of our series, once again we are obliged by the steepening commercial gradient to combine different intakes–this time, those who have now launched between four and six juvenile crops–to ensure a suitably competitive podium. For by this stage of their career the majority of Kentucky start-ups will already have packed their bags for regional or overseas programs. One or two are still barely clinging on, their books plummeting, but overall we're now looking at those few who have bravely consolidated to the brink of inclusion among those we'll be featuring in the final leg of our series, as “Established Sires”.

Because while few have quite maintained their early book sizes, they have at least now had a fair opportunity to show their hand, with between three and five sophomore crops. We can no longer complain that their stock has been judged prematurely, especially given that they will typically have been given their biggest chance in their opening books. And since most will meanwhile have had their fees trimmed, simply to stay in the game, you could argue that this stage of a stallion's career tends to produce some of the very best value in the marketplace. Indeed, among these three intakes, Maclean's Music alone stands as high as $50,000, and he does so only by dint of doubling his fee for 2022–thanks to 221 mares last spring, followed in the summer by his breakout Grade I exacta.

Bearing in mind that he actually belongs to the most exposed of these three groups, Maclean's Music shows that stallions at this point have useful potential to get you ahead of the game. In surviving the commercial trauma of their stock's racetrack exposure, they have tended to establish a loyal base on which to build again. They have “come out the other side”, so to speak.

Even so, it becomes ever more difficult to agree quite what we mean by “value”. End users will be delighted to obtain inexpensively the services of what may now be considered relatively proven sires; but commercial breeders still need some residual market momentum–resilient yearling averages, maybe, or a filling “pipeline”–if they are to keep the faith.

So here, offered as subjectively as ever, are some that may achieve a happy medium.

Bubbling under: Let's hope Paynter gets due recognition for a Horse of the Year, because he's far from a one-trick pony with 20/38 stakes winners/performers at a clip that stands right up to, say, his more expensive classmate Violence (who does, in fairness, have five Grade I horses against just Knicks Go). One way or another Paynter continues to be commercially neglected, which does mean that he offers especially rare value, on $10,000 at WinStar, for the end-user.

That's exactly what The Factor has already proven himself to be–and he's set for another top 20 finish in the general sires' list, consistently punching way above belt on $17,500 at Lane's End. He's been doing that ever since his return from Japan and, while that year away will leave him treading water briefly (no sophomores in 2022), he will be kept in business by his older stock, not least in view of their trademark, teak soundness. Foals bred now will be well placed to capitalise on renewed momentum, with books of 150 and 135 in the pipeline. The Factor may be hard to keep off the podium among established sires this time next year.

Take Charge Indy has had to regroup from a rather longer exile, having spent three years in Korea before earning an unusual repatriation through the endeavors of stock he had left behind. He requires just a little patience, with his first juveniles since his return on line only for 2023, but meanwhile gets another attractive trim to $12,500 at WinStar and, while he didn't really have an adequate footprint to freshen up his resumé a great deal this year, his overall record leaves no doubt of his competence to convert that sumptuous pedigree into stakes horses. I suspect that those who stick with him now will soon find themselves catching a rising tide.

The only member of Take Charge Indy's class to get black-type horses at a superior rate is Jimmy Creed, who just needs to improve his conversion rate: he has outstanding ratios for stakes, graded stakes and Grade I performers and is surely due a spate of headliners to follow his first elite winner, Casa Creed, one of just three scorers from as many as 17 stakes placers in 2021. Remember that Jimmy Creed, having rallied from 67 mares in 2017 to 165 in 2018, also has numbers on his side–and not least of these is a fee of $10,000 at Spendthrift.

Union Rags | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: UNION RAGS (Dixie Union–Tempo, by Gone West)

$30,000 Lane's End

Has the time come to get back on board the Union Rags express? There's no point pretending that the halving of his fee from $60,000 last spring was purely a COVID concession. He had hoisted himself from an initial $35,000 with no fewer than four Grade I winners from his first two crops, but dropped to ninth in the fourth-crop table in 2019 and slipped to 111 mares in 2020. But his farm's businesslike response was immediately rewarded by a return to full subscription (by their commendably restrained standards, anyway) at 164 mares.

In terms of output, then, Union Rags has plenty to work with, if he can regroup now. And that is exactly what he has begun to do. In 2021, he's back at the top of the class by stakes winners (seven), graded stakes winners (four) and graded stakes performers (11). He's had a number of near-misses in resonant races: Express Train was foiled by half a length in the GI Santa Anita H., Dynamic One missed by a nose in the GII Wood Memorial, and Commandperformance finished second in the GI Champagne S. and fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile on only his second and third starts. The $1-million baby Spielberg is back on the worktab, too.

It feels like the stock of Union Rags taper to a peak that is higher than it is wide. Cumulatively, his percentage of black-type action doesn't quite match classmate Creative Cause, for instance, and he stands at a quarter of the fee. But when Union Rags does connect, he can hit a long way. He has so far assembled as many as 12 Grade I performers among 29 placed at graded stakes level overall, at a ratio that measures right up to his universally admired studmate Twirling Candy.

Union Rags always promised to cover all bases as a fast juvenile (won GII Saratoga Special by seven lengths en route to GI Champagne S. success and a head defeat at the Breeders' Cup) who stretched his speed to win the GI Belmont S. on what sadly proved his final start. Though somewhat shaken by his ups and downs, the market maintains him with ample viability at this kind of fee (last two yearling crops averaged $87,024 and $106,000) and Union Rags, who has now been joined at stud by his imposing son Catalina Cruiser, is certainly a conduit of some venerable genes. His half-sister is the dam of an international force in Declaration of War (War Front) while his third dam is a British Classic winner by a son of Hyperion.

It goes without saying that a lot of the new sires corralling huge books this coming spring will never manage a single Grade I winner, never mind four, and it seems a little unfair to punish Union Rags for doing so well, so quickly, and then not repeating quickly enough. It takes a potent sire to do what he did, and he's the self-same package now–but at half the fee he could charge only a couple of years ago. Definite scope for Rags to riches, once again.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Silver: CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull)

$15,000 Airdrie

There's been an uncanny parity between the standout fourth-crop sires Goldencents (Into Mischief) and Cairo Prince, who from virtually the same number of named foals (454 and 450 respectively) have so far been precisely in step for black-type performers (38 apiece) and graded stakes winners (five each), their fees similarly settling at $15,000.

But while Goldencents was first to a Grade I breakout, it's the Airdrie stallion who has opened up daylight when measured by stakes winners (18 plays 13) and graded stakes horses (13 against eight)–and, critically, he is due for fresh impetus.

Because now is the time Cairo Prince can start to register the upgrade in his mares following his sensational sales debut in 2017, when his first yearlings averaged 15 times conception fee. In 2018, he received the rare accolade of a second fee increase before he had even had a runner, to $25,000 from an opening $10,000.

The first foals resulting from that heightened demand are this year's juveniles and we can already see the dividends. True, some of the most accomplished of his youngsters were bred at Airdrie, such as stakes winner/GI Starlet S. runner-up Cairo Memories; and recent runaway Churchill debut winner Park On the Nile. But already Cairo Prince has sired 29 winners from 57 starters in this crop, including seven black-type performers, putting him behind only Into Mischief himself in the juvenile standings. And the champion stallion has needed 86 starters for his 33 winners!

Something is stirring with Cairo Prince, then–already anticipated at the 2-year-old sales, where his average basically doubled on the previous crop. And his stock should continue to thrive, too: Cairo Prince was all set to build on his early foundations (won GII Nashua S. on second start, romped in GII Holy Bull S.) when derailing in the GI Florida Derby. His dam was a stakes winner at four, after all, and his family has just the kind of copper-bottomed seeding we know to expect at this farm: third and fourth dams, indeed, are by Nearctic and Native Dancer. Closer up, Cairo Prince is a half-brother to the Grade I-placed dam of Grade I winner and promising WinStar sire Outwork (Uncle Mo).

It's pretty rare for the market to “find” a new stallion the way it did this one, being generally inclined slavishly to obey the values implied by covering costs. Yet Cairo Prince, partly as a result of last year's COVID cuts, has come back down in fee even if his “pipeline” has become ever more loaded. As a result, those who breed to him now have a low-stakes opportunity to cash in as this second, better-bred cycle starts to do its stuff. With his lamented sire a premature loss, the Prince looks ready to accede to the throne.

Dialed In winning the 2011 Florida Derby | Coglianese

Gold: DIALED IN (Mineshaft–Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat)

$15,000 Darby Dan

Now here's a horse whose every step takes him forward, with only his fee standing still. No surprise, certainly, that his second Grade I winner should also be a graduate of his 2017 book, which soared giddily to 231 mares from 105 the previous year.

That surge came after he had topped the freshmen prizemoney table; also top by wins and second (missed by one) by individual winners, despite fielding only 40 starters against 53, 57 and 56 for the next three in the table–and all from an opening fee of just $7,500.

Dialed In's next four books have brought in another 542 mares but his fee, having meanwhile touched $25,000, has been allowed to drift down again. We know that the market always needs encouragement, pending the maturing of a new cycle in a stallion's career; and of course he also participated in the COVID concessions made last year. But the upswing could already be read at the yearling sales this year, where Dialed In catapulted his average from $41,462 in 2020 to $71,000, processing no fewer than 36 of 39 into the ring. That's a really significant vote of confidence in a stallion at this stage of his career.

Those of us who have long nursed high hopes for Dialed In could salute Get Her Number's juvenile Grade I success last year as a sign of things to come and, sure enough, his sophomores in 2021 included not just GI Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock but also Mr. Wireless, who paired the GIII Indiana Derby and GIII West Virginia Derby. Moreover their sire, for all the precocity he injected into his freshmen's title, has also established his ability to maintain the output of his maturing stock: his first headliner Gunnevera, for instance, was still going strong at five.

I do admire the way Dialed In has pulled himself up by his bootstraps. He had been something of a forgotten horse when starting out at a basement fee, having failed to reward perseverance on the track (single disappointing start at four) after dropping out the previous summer for removal of a chip. He had earned favoritism for the first Saturday in May in winning the GI Florida Derby, only to get stuck out the back before finishing strongly; before then doing the same in the GI Preakness.

But he has always had terrific physical charisma–as a $475,000 Saratoga yearling, he was the most expensive of the crop for his stalwart sire–and there's no doubt that this is a true aristocrat. His pedigree has a beautiful shape, with an Eclipse champion as second dam, and he has raised up some pretty humble mares. Get Her Number's dam, for example, had changed hands for $1,300, while Chalon, beaten a head for the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and a few cents off millionaire status, is out of a $20,000 mare. The dam of Gunnevera, himself a $16,000 yearling who banked over $5.5 million, had been sold for $13,000.

Dialed In already has 22 graded stakes performers, at a pretty respectable ratio, but only now is he starting to reap the rewards he earned in seizing his first opportunities so eagerly. If you want to use a literal speed-Dial, there's now a full signal.

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Lane’s End 2022 Stallion Roster Topped By Quality Road At $150,000

Lane's End in Versailles, Ky., has released its advertised fees for the 2022 breeding season, led by leading sire Quality Road at $150,000, unchanged from the previous year.

Quality Road, a 15-year-old son of Elusive Quality, is led this year by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Corniche, Grade 2 winner Astronaut, multiple Grade 3 winner Dr Post, and Grade 1-placed Dunbar Road.

After a standout debut season for his yearlings at auction, Grade 1 winner City of Light will stand for $60,000 after previously standing for $40,000.

A 7-year-old son of Quality Road, City of Light has been represented by a pair of seven-figure yearlings in 2021, including a $1.7-million colt that topped this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Veteran sire Twirling Candy also saw his fee increase in 2022, going from $40,000 to $60,000.

The 14-year-old son of Candy Ride was led this year by Preakness Stakes winner Rombauer, joined by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Pinehurst, Grade 3 winner Gear Jockey, and Grade 1-placed Dream Shake.

Two stallions' fees will be determined by the results at the Breeders' Cup.

Connect, an 8-year-old son of Curlin, is among North America's leading freshman sires, led by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Rattle N Roll, who won the G1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in October. He is also the sire of Hidden Connection, who earned a “Win and You're In” berth to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies after taking the G3 Pocahontas Stakes.

The fee for Liam's Map could also fluctuate by the Breeders' Cup outcomes, starting with a base fee of $40,000. The 10-year-old Unbridled's Song horse has a Juvenile Fillies hopeful in Grade 1 winner Juju's Map.

The roster also includes newcomer Code of Honor, a Grade 1-winning son of Noble Mission whose fee will be announced after his final start in the G1 Clark Stakes.

Following is a complete list of advertised fees for the 2022 stallion roster at Lane's End.

Accelerate – $15,000
Candy Ride – $75,000
Catalina Cruiser – $15,000
City of Light – $60,000
Code of Honor (NEW) – TBD
Connect* – TBD
Daredevil – $25,000
Game Winner – $30,000
Gift Box – $10,000
Honor A. P. – $15,000
Honor Code – $20,000
Liam's Map* – $40,000
Mineshaft – $10,000
Quality Road – $150,000
The Factor – $17,500
Tonalist – $10,000
Twirling Candy – $60,000
Unified – $10,000
Union Rags – $30,000
West Coast – $15,000

*Stud fee pending Breeders' Cup results

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Bound For Nowhere Pointing To Saratoga’s Troy Stakes

Bound for Nowhere, who finished third last out in the Grade 1 Jackpocket Jaipur on June 5 at Belmont Park, will pursue another graded stake on the NYRA circuit for owner-trainer Wesley Ward when he runs in the Grade 3, $200,000 Troy presented by Horse Racing Ireland on August 6 at Saratoga Race Course.

The seven-time winning millionaire broke sharply in the six-furlong Jaipur with some company from fellow graded stakes winners Sombeyay and Gregorian Chant to his outside. Bound for Nowhere maintained command until just past the sixteenth-pole when passed by Casa Creed, who notched a two-length score over Chewing Gum.

While pleased with the effort, Ward said he would rather see Bound for Nowhere convey a late-closing running style which he showed when conquering the Grade 2 Shakertown under Joel Rosario on April 3 at Keeneland.

“From behind I think he's better, especially as he gets older,” Ward said. “As luck would have it, he broke decent. He was kind of smoking out there the first part of the race. I was happy with the way he ran, but I would have rather seen him come from behind. It wasn't Joel's fault, I don't give riding instructions. I was just really happy with the way he rode him in the Shakertown, where he came from well out of it and showed one big punch. I loved that ride.”

Bound for Nowhere, a 7-year-old son of The Factor, breezed an easy five-eighths over the turf at Belmont Park on Thursday morning in his second work following the Jaipur.

“He worked at Churchill the day after closing day along with Golden Pal,” Ward said. “I like to keep them on the grass, so I shipped them to Belmont to work them on the grass at Belmont.”

Ward said Golden Pal will target the Grade 3, $120,000 Quick Call on July 15, Opening Day at the Spa. The son of Uncle Mo, out of 11-time stakes-winner Lady Shipman, last raced when capturing the Grade 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint on November 6 at Keeneland.

Golden Pal also worked five-eighths over the Belmont turf on Thursday morning.

“From what I see with him in the mornings, he's just extremely talented,” Ward said.

Golden Pal finished a close second as a maiden in the Group 2 Norfolk at Ascot last June at second asking. On his return to North America, Golden Pal graduated in style with a front-running score in the Skidmore in August at Saratoga.

Ward said Stonestreet Stables' Campanelle has returned from her recent Royal Ascot conquest in good order.

The Irish-bred daughter of Kodiac crossed the wire second in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup on June 18, but was elevated to first following the disqualification of Dragon Symbol. The victory marked a second straight Royal Ascot conquest for Campanelle, who won the Group 2 Queen Mary last summer at the prestigious race meet.

Campanelle is currently at Keeneland training for her next test which will likely take place in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest on August 8 at Deauville in France. Last year, she captured the Group 1 Prix Morny at the French racetrack.

“She's ready for a work,” Ward said. “We're in a little bit of a pickle because we're mandated to breeze on the dirt. That's her home track and that's where she thrives. Her race is about a month from now in France.”

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