Following the weekend's Travers and Ellis Park Derby, the top four remain unchanged on this week's The Derby 20. Tiz the Law was beyond impressive and easily maintains the top spot, while Art Collector did just enough to keep his position in third.
However, several 3-year-olds previously tagged as major contenders were disappointing on Saturday and Sunday and have since dropped out of Kentucky Derby contention. Uncle Chuck and Country Grammer will both seek other spots, as will Shivaree.
At Ellis Park, a trio of potential candidates finished poorly, including Indiana Derby winner Shared Sense (5th), Ohio Derby winner Dean Martini (6th), and Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d'Or (8th). Dean Martini and Anneau d'Or will go elsewhere, but Shared Sense remains in contention for now.
Caracaro made the biggest jump up this week with his second-place finish in the Travers, and he seems to have a lot of potential upside moving forward into the Kentucky Derby.
There are several contenders remaining on this list who will require defections from the top 20 point-earners to make the main body of the Derby field. Those are expected to occur, including, at the very least, the filly Swiss Skydiver, who is expected to run in the Kentucky Oaks. The full points leaderboard is available here: Kentucky Derby Oaks Leaderboard
Where did your favorite Derby horse end up? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in the first edition of The Derby 20!
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm
Sire: Constitution
Dam: Tizfiz, by Tiznow
Sales Record: $110,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-Bred Sale
Race record: 6-0-1 from seven starts, $2,015,300
Major races: G1 Travers (1st), G1 Belmont (1st), G1 Florida Derby (1st), G3 Holy Bull (1st), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (3rd), G1 Champagne (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
1st
Paulick Report Ranking
He's the Belmont Stakes winner, the Travers winner, he's undefeated in 2020, and he looks like a model of consistency for trainer Barclay Tagg. It's hard to bet against Tiz the Law, a colt whose running style makes him hard to beat. The Travers was impressive, and that 109 Beyer is miles above what any other 3-year-old has done this year. All that considered, his one race at Churchill Downs was a bit of a flop, and Tiz the Law seems to need to be kept in the clear on the outside to do his best running. If we get a full gate of 20 horses, that could pose a problem, especially if he draws near the inside. The colt also hasn't been seriously tested this year, so it remains to be seen if he'll have the heart to win a battle to the wire. Of course, he may not need it; Tiz the Law hasn't been tested because no other horse has been able to run with him.
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: George Krikorian
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush
Sales Record: $850,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select sale
Race Record: 2-3-0 from five starts, $382,200
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (2nd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (1st), G2 San Felipe (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
2nd
Paulick Report Ranking
This big, beautiful colt has all the talent to get the job done on the first Saturday in September, but he's a little bit lighter on experience than some of his rivals. The loss in the Shared Belief shouldn't affect him long-term; it was an oddly-run race and the distance was a bit short for Honor A. P. to show his best. That said, Shirreffs can be sure to have Honor A. P. ready to give his best effort next out, and with Mike Smith in the saddle his chances to visit that hallowed winner's circle at Churchill Downs are that much better.
Owner/Breeder: Bruce Lunsford
Trainer: Tommy Drury
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Sire: Bernardini
Dam: Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor
Sales Record: (homebred)
Race Record: 5-1-0 from nine starts, $664,380
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (1st), G2 Blue Grass Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
3rd
Paulick Report Ranking
After an impressive win in the Blue Grass, this colt did exactly what he needed to do in the Ellis Park Derby. Jockey Brian Hernadez gave him just enough of a workout in the final eighth of a mile, and while his 100 Beyer at Ellis may have been a bit of a regression from his 103 in the Blue Grass, Art Collector showed he can both handle early pressure and be tractable. He'll have to take another step forward to beat Tiz the Law and Honor A. P., but the colt has shown he's certainly capable of doing so. On a side note, it's hard not to root for this trainer and jockey, both of whom are underrated and getting a shot at the big dance.
Owner: Victor Avila (Victoria's Ranch)
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Breeder: Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band
Sales Record: $150,000 at the OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-1 from five starts, $340,350
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (2nd), G2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
4th
Paulick Report Ranking
It was unclear how talented this colt might be after his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but his second-place finish to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby was impressive. The long layoff from May to September could be a concern, but he's a lightly-made animal so there's no reason to think it wouldn't benefit him. King Guillermo is already at Churchill Downs getting used to the surface, and I'll keep a close eye on his works, but as of right now it looks like he'll be a major contender.
Owner: Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing, LLC
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: SF Bloodstock
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Peace Time, by War Front
Sales Record: $95,000 weanling at Keeneland November
Race Record: 1-3-0 from four starts, $238,800
Major Races: G1 Travers Stakes (2nd), G3 Peter Pan Stakes (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
5th
Paulick Report Ranking
This lightly-raced colt ran a big race in the Peter Pan, especially first time against winners, and took another big step forward in the Travers. He's got all the reason in the world to move up again in the Derby, his third start off the layoff. Caracaro may have been soundly defeated by Tiz the Law, but the late-developing colt ran a solid race and earned his spot in the Run for the Roses.
Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing and Paul Braverman
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Breeder: Brian Culnan
Sire: Cross Traffic
Dam: Maime Reilly, by Graeme Hall
Sales Record: $27,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old in training sale
Race Record: 2-3-2 from nine starts, $565,470
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (2nd), G3 Matt Winn (2nd), G2 Louisiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
6th
Paulick Report Ranking
Progressive colt showed up in a big way in the Haskell, and looked like he'd handle the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby with ease. Ny Traffic has had a good deal of racing experience, and is taking a step forward with each race. He's tactical and gritty, so he should be able to make some noise on the first Saturday in September.
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Abel Cedillo
Breeder: Hardacre Farm
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile
Dam: Pomeroy's Pistol, by Pomeroy
Sales Record: $1,000,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from seven starts, $327,000
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (1st), G3 Los Alamitos Derby (2nd), G3 Bob Lewis Stakes (1st), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
7th
Paulick Report Ranking
Most analysts had understandably written off this colt after a couple of sub-par performances, but after watching his workout in company with Cezanne, it was easy to see that he'd found a new groove. After the Shared Belief win, Baffert explained that Thousand Words had gotten a bit sour, but the Hall of Fame trainer seems to have gotten a better idea of what makes this colt tick. Another one to keep a close eye on in the mornings leading up to the Run for the Roses.
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Flawless, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $350,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from five starts, $1,011,200
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (1st), G1 Santa Anita Derby (2nd), G2 San Felipe (1st), G3 Sham Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
8th
Paulick Report Ranking
I sincerely doubt this colt wants a mile and a quarter, but I doubted him in the Haskell over nine furlongs too. He's got heart, and he's got the tactical speed to be dangerous, but I can't seem him winning the Kentucky Derby. Mike Smith, his regular rider, seems likely to pick Honor A. P. over Authentic for the first Saturday in September.
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Andie Biancone
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Limited
Sire: Karakontie
Dam: Light Blow, by Kingmambo
Sales Record: $20,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 4-1-1 from seven starts, $323,310
Major Races: G2 Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), G3 Sam Davis (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
9th
Paulick Report Ranking
He'll need the right trip to win the Derby, but his late-closing style could be especially dangerous when there appears to be plenty of speed signing on for the first Saturday in September. Biancone admitted that he rushed Sole Volante to the Belmont 10 days after winning an allowance race, and that he runs better fresh, so I won't hold the Belmont sixth against him.
Owner: George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp.
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Breeder: K & G Stables
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Fools in Love, by Not For Love
Sales Record: $150,000 RNA at Keeneland September yearling sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from five starts, $373,500
Major Races: G1 Travers (3rd), G1 Belmont Stakes (3rd), G3 Withers (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
10th
Paulick Report Ranking
He ran willingly enough in the Belmont, and all reports from the colt's camp were positive leading up to his third in the Travers. Rice hasn't determined whether he'll point to the Derby yet, but Max Player's late-running style should put him in contention if he does.
Owner: St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Breeder: Cloyce Clark
Sire: Quality Road
Dam: Mary Delaney, by Hennessy
Sales Record: $400,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-1 from three starts, $188,850
Major Races: G1 Haskell (3rd), G1 Belmont (2nd)
possible for Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
11th
Paulick Report Ranking
Unimpressive performance in the Haskell, and Dr Post appears to be more of a one-paced grinder than the kind of horse who can win the Kentucky Derby. Down the road, he ought to try some marathon distances, because he looks like the type to run all day long.
However, should the colt's racing tactics change, he might be worth a second look.
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Breeder: Clearsky Farms
Sire: Tapit
Dam: Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union
Sales Record: $775,000 RNA at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 2-2-2 from ten starts, $397,150
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (4th), G2 Risen Star (2nd), G3 Lecomte (1st), G1 Breeders' Futurity (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
12th
Paulick Report Ranking
Distance should help this well-bred colt, and Casse seems happy with his recent workouts. Enforceable's late-running style might be a detriment, but with the right draw and the right trip, anything is possible.
Owner/Breeder: Lloyd Madison
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: James Graham
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Aristra, by Afleet Alex
Sales record: $200,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 1-2-1 from six starts, $215,600
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
13th
Paulick Report Ranking
He hasn't gotten that top-level win yet, but Major Fed has a dedicated team behind him dedicated to his success. He will skip the Ellis Park Derby and point straight to the Kentucky Derby, and while he won't be lower than 20-1 on Derby day, the power of the home team may propel Major Fed beyond his race record.
Owner: Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. C. Oliver Iselin III
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini
Race Record: 1-3-1 from eight starts, $143,732
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (2nd), G3 Gotham (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
14th
Paulick Report Ranking
Clearly second-best to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby, but Romans plans to point this son of Hard Spun to the Run for the Roses. And why not? It's his home track, and the Virginia-bred is improving a bit this year.
Owner.Breeder: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Sire: Street Sense
Dam: Collective, by Bernardini
Race Record: 3-2-0 from nine starts, $327,745
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (1st)
possible for Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
15th
Paulick Report Ranking
Big run at Indiana Grand, and his pedigree says he should love every inch of a mile and a quarter. He improved late in the Ellis Park Derby, so another furlong might be to his liking at Churchill Downs. Shared Sense will need a couple of defections, but it appears likely he'll get them.
Owner/Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Teardrop, by Tapit
Race Record: 2-0-1 from four starts, $166,850
Major Races: G1 Belmont Stakes (4th), G3 Matt Winn Stakes (3rd)
Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park on Aug. 15
16th
Paulick Report Ranking
Expected to make it into the main body of the field even without points earned in this weekend's Pegasus Stakes, the lightly-raced Pneumatic has a lot of upside for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. He'll need to step forward to compete with the best on this list, but Saturday's performance should answer some questions.
Owner: Raymond Daniels and Wayne Scherr
Trainer: Chris Hartman
Jockey: Mitchell Murrill
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Jenny's Rocket, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $250,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-3 from 10 starts, $199,730
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (3rd), G3 Indiana Derby (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
17th
Paulick Report Ranking
A step below the best, but the Derby is for dreamers and mid-level trainer Chris Hartman has continued to show that he can work with the best when given the chance.
Owner: Jim and Donna Daniell
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: Ocala Stud
Sire: Liam's Map
Dam: Conquest Angel, by Colonel John
Sales record: $70,000 2-year-old purchase at OBS March sale
Race Record: 2-1-2 from six starts, $189,351
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3rd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (3rd)
possible for Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
18th
Paulick Report Ranking
Rushie isn't nominated to the Triple Crown, but he's run well enough in a couple of Derby preps and has enough points to make the main field on his own. It'll be interesting to see what happens moving forward with this colt.
Owner: Rey Hernandez and Arnaldo Monge
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Breeder: Paige Jillian Blu Sky Stables
Sire: Dialed In
Dam: Southern Classic, by Southern Image
Race Record: 2-1-2 from nine starts, $191,290
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (3rd), G3 Lecomte Stakes (4th), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
19th
Paulick Report Ranking
Expected to make the main field via defections, the one-eyed Finnick the Fierce will draw plenty of fan-favoritism. He's a cool colt who's run well intermittently, and a good performance could put him in the mix on Derby day.
Owner: David A Bernsen, Exline-Border Racing LLC, Dan Hudock, and Susanna Wilson
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Breeder: Stepping Stone Farm
Sire: Court Vision
Dam: My Tejana Storm, Tejano Run
Sales Record: $60,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from nine starts, $1,310,451
Major Races: G3 La Jolla (2nd), G3 Ohio Derby (3rd), G2 San Felipe (3rd), G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1st), G1 American Pharoah (3rd)
possible for Kentucky Derby
20th
Paulick Report Ranking
Second in a graded stakes on the turf last weekend, Storm the Court remains possible for the Kentucky Derby. He hasn't produced a top-level win this year, but keeps hitting the board or getting close to it on the dirt. It seems unlikely his connections will go back to the dirt after that turf success, however.
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