The defection of Art Collector early Tuesday morning and late addition of several other entrants this week have left an interesting field of 18 for Saturday's rescheduled Kentucky Derby.
For the first time since the introduction of the Derby points system in 2013, there will be two horses in the field with no points at all. Those are the Todd Pletcher-trained Money Moves, a lightly-raced son of Candy Ride, and the Bret Calhoun-trained Mr. Big News, an upset winner of the Oaklawn Stakes two starts back. Neither has the credentials to compete with this field on paper, but the first Saturday in (September) is for dreamers!
Tiz the Law is definitely a deserving favorite, but the large field could make him vulnerable. Honor A. P. should be ready to roll for trainer John Shirreffs, and its hard to leave a Bob Baffert trainee out of the Kentucky Derby.
My longshot picks, or a few horses that I expect to outrun their odds, include: King Guillermo (20-1 morning line), Ny Traffic (20-1 morning line), and Enforceable (30-1 morning line).
Where did your favorite Derby horse end up? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in this edition of The Derby 20!
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm
Sire: Constitution
Dam: Tizfiz, by Tiznow
Sales Record: $110,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-Bred Sale
Race record: 6-0-1 from seven starts, $2,015,300
Major races: G1 Travers (1st), G1 Belmont (1st), G1 Florida Derby (1st), G3 Holy Bull (1st), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (3rd), G1 Champagne (1st)
Post Position 17, Morning Line 3-5
He's the Belmont Stakes winner, the Travers winner, he's undefeated in 2020, and he looks like a model of consistency for trainer Barclay Tagg. It's hard to bet against Tiz the Law, a colt whose running style makes him hard to beat. The Travers was impressive, and that 109 Beyer is miles above what any other 3-year-old has done this year. All that considered, his one race at Churchill Downs was a bit of a flop, and heavy favorites haven't historically done well in the Kentucky Derby. It's going to be one fun race to watch!
- Derby Notes: Tiz The Law Splashes Through First Day At Churchill Downs
- Derby Notes: Tiz The Law Arrives In Louisville, California Contingent Steps On Track
- Tiz The Law Draws 17; Top Three Choices To Break From Outside Posts In Rescheduled Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A. P., And Ny Traffic
- Derby Notes: Final Works On Three Fronts; Shirl's Speight Out With Cough
- Tagg Calls Tiz The Law's Penultimate Derby Work 'Perfect'
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo's Fast Work, Tiz The Law's One-Day Delay, Arrival Plans
- Tiz The Law Ascends To Top Of Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings
- Tagg: Tiz The Law 'Did Everything A Good Horse Ought To Do'
- Tiz The Law Solidifies Kentucky Derby Favoritism With Overpowering Victory In Runhappy Travers Stakes
- 'The Pinnacle Of What We Hope For': Tiz The Law A 'Star Pupil' On And Off The Track
- Belmont Winner Tiz The Law To Stand At Ashford Stud Upon Retirement
- More here
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: George Krikorian
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush
Sales Record: $850,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select sale
Race Record: 2-3-0 from five starts, $382,200
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (2nd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (1st), G2 San Felipe (2nd)
Post Position 16, Morning Line 5-1
This big, beautiful colt has all the talent and pedigree to get the job done on the first Saturday in September, but being drawn just inside Authentic and Tiz the Law means he has to get away from the gate cleanly to avoid getting shuffled too far back in the early stages. It'll be in “Big Money” Mike Smith's hands whether he sends the colt a bit early to try for a better, ground-saving trip, or if he allows Honor A. P. to find his stride on his own and risks going five or six wide around the clubhouse turn.
Looking back, the loss in the Shared Belief shouldn't affect him long-term; it was an oddly-run race and the distance was a bit short for Honor A. P. to show his best. That said, Shirreffs can be sure to have Honor A. P. ready to give his best effort next out.
- Tiz The Law Draws 17; Top Three Choices To Break From Outside Posts In Rescheduled Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A. P., And Ny Traffic
- Derby Notes: Final Works On Three Fronts; Shirl's Speight Out With Cough
- 'Clicking Off Those 12s': Honor A.P. Works At Del Mar Under Mike Smith
- 'Outstanding': Smith Aboard Honor A.P. For Key Derby Breeze
- Reversal Of Fortune For Top Two Finishers In Shared Belief
- Thousand Words Re-Enters Kentucky Derby Picture, Beating Honor A.P. In Shared Belief
- Honor A. P. To Stand At Lane's End Upon Retirement
- Bloodlines: Honor A.P. Charts The Course For His Classy Family
- Shirreffs: Exciting, Gratifying To See Honor A.P.'s Santa Anita Performance
- More here
Owner: Victor Avila (Victoria's Ranch)
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Breeder: Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band
Sales Record: $150,000 at the OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-1 from five starts, $340,350
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (2nd), G2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)
Post Position 6, Morning Line 20-1
It was unclear how talented this colt might be after his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but his second-place finish to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby was impressive. The long layoff from May to September could be a concern, but he's a lightly-made animal and his trainer appears to have him plenty fit, so there's no reason to think the time wouldn't benefit him. King Guillermo has been at Churchill Downs for weeks getting used to the surface, and it looks like he'll be a major contender.
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: King Guillermo, Thousand Words, And South Bend
- 'The MLB Of Racing': Venezuelan Native Camacho Living The Dream With 2020 Derby Mount
- Derby Notes: Final Works On Three Fronts; Shirl's Speight Out With Cough
- Derby Training At Churchill Downs: King Guillermo 'Enjoying Being In Kentucky'
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo's Fast Work, Tiz The Law's One-Day Delay, Arrival Plans
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo Fires A Bullet Under The Twin Spires
- Straight Sets: Nadal Takes Second Division Of Arkansas Derby For Baffert Sweep
- Arkansas Derby: King Guillermo Gets Feel For Oaklawn Surface
- Breeders' Cup Presents Connections: Jockey Camacho Stays Humble Heading To The 'Big Time'
- Named For Martinez' Late Father, King Guillermo A Longshot Dream Come True
- More here
Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing and Paul Braverman
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Breeder: Brian Culnan
Sire: Cross Traffic
Dam: Maime Reilly, by Graeme Hall
Sales Record: $27,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old in training sale
Race Record: 2-3-2 from nine starts, $565,470
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (2nd), G3 Matt Winn (2nd), G2 Louisiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (3rd)
Post Position 15, Morning Line 20-1
Progressive colt showed up in a big way in the Haskell, and looked like he'd handle the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby with ease. Ny Traffic has had a good deal of racing experience, and is taking a step forward with each race. He's tactical and gritty, so he should be able to make some noise on the first Saturday in September.
- 'We Just Have To Be The Best On One Day': Ny Traffic Should Improve Off Haskell Performance
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A. P., And Ny Traffic
- Ny Traffic Has 'Very Good Chance' After Successful Final Breeze
- 'It Doesn't Matter What Year You're In It': Joseph Looking Forward To Ny Traffic's Run In Kentucky Derby
- 'I Think We Have A Legit Chance': Joseph Pleased After Ny Traffic Works In Company With Math Wizard
- 'Another Jump Forward': Joseph Pleased With Ny Traffic's Haskell Performance
- Authentic Just Lasts In Desperate Haskell Finish; Baffert Wins For Ninth Time
- Ny Traffic Bound For Jersey's Haskell After Sharp Gulfstream Drill
- More here
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Breeder: Clearsky Farms
Sire: Tapit
Dam: Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union
Sales Record: $775,000 RNA at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 2-2-2 from ten starts, $397,150
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (4th), G2 Risen Star (2nd), G3 Lecomte (1st), G1 Breeders' Futurity (3rd)
Post Position 3, Morning Line 30-1
Distance should help this well-bred colt, and Casse seems happy with his recent workouts. Enforceable's late-running style might be a detriment in a race without an enormous amount of early speed, but the colt has been touting himself in a big way in the mornings at Churchill Downs. He'll also get an inside post, and Gaffalione may be able to work out a ground-saving inside trip that'll result in a big effort on Derby Day.
- Derby Notes: Final Works On Three Fronts; Shirl's Speight Out With Cough
- A Foggy Morning In Derby Town: Enforceable Breezes Six Furlongs
- Casse: Enforceable 'Has Grown Up A Lot,' But Will Need 'Plenty Of Pace' In Kentucky Derby
- Art Collector Breezes Half-Mile At Churchill In Ellis Park Derby Prep
- Enforceable Tabbed As Lukewarm Favorite In 14-Strong Louisiana Derby
- After Lecomte Win, Casse Hoping To Keep Triple Crown Prep Party Going In Smarty Jones
- More here
Owner/Breeder: Lloyd Madison
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: James Graham
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Aristra, by Afleet Alex
Sales record: $200,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 1-2-1 from six starts, $215,600
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (2nd)
Post Position 5, Morning Line 50-1
He hasn't gotten that top-level win yet, but Major Fed has a dedicated team behind him dedicated to his success. He skipped the Ellis Park Derby and trained up to the Run for the Roses, and while he won't be lower than 20-1 on Derby day, the power of the home team may propel Major Fed beyond his race record.
- 'It's 2020, Anything Can Happen': Derby Contenders Keeping A Close Eye On Mother Nature
- Major Fed Team Decides To Skip Ellis Park Derby, Train Up To Kentucky Derby
- Art Collector Breezes Half-Mile At Churchill In Ellis Park Derby Prep
- 'Unlucky The Last Two Races,' Major Fed Tries To Get Back In Gear In Indiana Derby
- Matt Winn Stakes: Major Fed 'A Step Above' For Team Foley
- More here
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Breeder: Hardacre Farm
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile
Dam: Pomeroy's Pistol, by Pomeroy
Sales Record: $1,000,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from seven starts, $327,000
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (1st), G3 Los Alamitos Derby (2nd), G3 Bob Lewis Stakes (1st), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)
Post Position 10, Morning Line 15-1
Most analysts had understandably written off this colt after a couple of sub-par performances, but after watching his workout in company with Cezanne before the Shared Belief, it was easy to see that he'd found a new groove. After the Shared Belief win, Baffert explained that Thousand Words had gotten a bit sour, but the Hall of Fame trainer seems to have gotten a better idea of what makes this colt tick. Thousand Words should handle the distance a bit better than his stablemate Authentic, as well.
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: King Guillermo, Thousand Words, And South Bend
- 'Take Nothing For Granted': Fate Puts Albaugh Family Stables Back In The Derby Game
- Thousand Words 'Peaking At The Right Time' For Kentucky Derby Bid
- Reversal Of Fortune For Top Two Finishers In Shared Belief
- Thousand Words Re-Enters Kentucky Derby Picture, Beating Honor A.P. In Shared Belief
- Baffert 1-2 In Los Alamitos Derby As Uncle Chuck Defeats Thousand Words
- More here
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Andie Biancone
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Limited
Sire: Karakontie
Dam: Light Blow, by Kingmambo
Sales Record: $20,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 4-1-1 from seven starts, $323,310
Major Races: G2 Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), G3 Sam Davis (1st)
Post Position 12, Morning Line 30-1
He'll need the right trip to win the Derby, especially with the lack of fiery early speed and his late-closing style. Biancone admitted that he rushed Sole Volante to the Belmont 10 days after winning an allowance race, and that he runs better fresh, so I won't hold the Belmont sixth against him. If he runs back to that allowance race at Gulfstream, he'll be a major threat here.
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Storm The Court, Attachment Rate, And Sole Volante
- Sole Volante Breezes On Grass In Advance Of Kentucky Derby
- Sole Volante To Train Up To Kentucky Derby; Ete Indien Suffers Setback
- Luca Panici Feeling 'Confident' In Long-Time Partnership With Sole Volante
- Sole Volante To Wheel Back In 10 Days For Belmont Stakes
- More here
Owner: George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Breeder: K & G Stables
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Fools in Love, by Not For Love
Sales Record: $150,000 RNA at Keeneland September yearling sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from five starts, $373,500
Major Races: G1 Travers (3rd), G1 Belmont Stakes (3rd), G3 Withers (1st)
Post Position 2, Morning Line 30-1
He ran willingly enough in the Belmont, and all reports from the colt's camp were positive leading up to his third in the Travers. The switch to Asmussen's barn doesn't seem to have affected his workout style; Asmussen tends to work his horses slower, but Max Player went sub-1:00 in his five furlong workout on Monday. The barn switch would typically move him up in my eyes, but if Asmussen isn't changing what the colt has been doing, I'll leave him in the same place on my list as when he was in Linda Rice's barn.
- Derby Notes: Asmussen 'Extremely Excited' About Max Player After Final Breeze
- Max Player Works 'Really Well,' Covers Swift Five Furlongs In Company At Churchill Downs
- Travers Third Max Player Moved To Hall Of Famer Asmussen's Barn
- On To The Derby For Travers Runner-Up Caracaro; Rice Keeping Max Player's Options Open
- Rice Hoping Rosario Keeps Max Player Closer To The Pace In Travers
- 'Level-Headed' Max Player Puts In Final Work For Saturday's Travers
- How Much Was That Horse Worth? Max Player Valued At Seven Figures After Withers Score
- 'Everything Is Going Smoothly' With Travers Contender Max Player
- More here
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Flawless, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $350,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from five starts, $1,011,200
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (1st), G1 Santa Anita Derby (2nd), G2 San Felipe (1st), G3 Sham Stakes (1st)
Post Position 18, Morning Line 8-1
I sincerely doubt this colt wants a mile and a quarter, but I doubted him in the Haskell over nine furlongs too. He's got heart, and he's got the tactical speed to be dangerous, but I can't seem him winning the Kentucky Derby. He'll likely affect the outcome, however, as he can be expected to be on or just off the early pace.
- Tiz The Law Draws 17; Top Three Choices To Break From Outside Posts In Rescheduled Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Tiz the Law, Authentic, Honor A. P., And Ny Traffic
- Derby Notes: Attachment Rate, Authentic Turn In Final Breezes
- 'Forgotten Horse' Authentic Completes Penultimate Workout For Kentucky Derby
- Authentic Pulled Up Mid-Workout To Avoid Stricken Horse; Breeze Rescheduled For Tuesday
- Baffert Breezes Derby Candidates Uncle Chuck, Authentic
- Bloodlines: Authentic's Haskell Win Brings Latest Success For Into Mischief, MyRacehorse
- Baffert: Haskell Winner Authentic 'Still Has A Lot Of Improving To Do'
- More here
Owner: Robert LaPenta and Bortolazzo Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: Whitehall Lane Farm
Sire: Candy Ride
Dam: Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen
Sales Record: $975,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-0 from three starts, $67,400
Major Races:
Post Position 7, Morning Line 30-1
An interesting late move by Todd Pletcher to enter this colt in the Derby fray, but the lightly-raced Money Moves is certainly talented. His second-place finish in allowance company last out can be forgiven as he was facing older horses, and walking over to the paddock out of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas' barn may just be enough to spring the upset in the Run for the Roses.
Owners: Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch, and Pantofel Stable
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Breeder: Highclere
Sire: Algorithms
Dam: Sandra's Rose, by Old Trieste
Sales Record: $70,000 2-year-old at OBS March
Race Record: 3-2-2 from 12 starts, $390,114
Major Races: G1 Travers (4th), G3 Ohio Derby (2nd), G3 Palm Beach Stakes (3rd)
Post Position 8, Morning Line 50-1
The switch to Mott's barn helped South Bend step up in the Travers, and there's no reason to think he won't continue to move forward on Saturday. He has so far been a step or two below the best here, but Mott won the Derby with a longshot last year, so it's hard to count him out completely!
- 'Here's To Longshots!' Mott-Trained Derby Entrant South Bend 'Tries Hard Every Time'
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: King Guillermo, Thousand Words, And South Bend
- South Bend Joins Derby Cast Just Before Post Position Draw
- Connections Of Private Purchase South Bend 'Seriously Thinking' Travers
- More here
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Joe Rocco, Jr.
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Sire: Paynter
Dam: Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled's Song
Sales Record: $77,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 1-1-2 from nine starts, $98,552
Major Races: Arkansas Derby (3rd)
Post Position 14, Morning Line 50-1
While its hard to see positives in Winning Impression's most recent two efforts, trainer Dallas Stewart has a reputation for producing longshots to a career-best effort in the Kentucky Derby. Exercise rider Emerson Chavez has been particularly excited about this colt's chances on social media, so he may well be worth a few plays as a live longshot.
Owner: Rey Hernandez and Arnaldo Monge
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Breeder: Paige Jillian Blu Sky Stables
Sire: Dialed In
Dam: Southern Classic, by Southern Image
Race Record: 2-1-2 from nine starts, $191,290
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (3rd), G3 Lecomte Stakes (4th), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (2nd)
Post Position 1, Morning Line 50-1
The one-eyed Finnick the Fierce will draw plenty of fan-favoritism, though his credentials may not match his price. He's a cool colt who's run well intermittently, and a good performance could put him in the mix on Derby day. Martin Garcia will be back aboard, which moved the colt up this list, as did his inside post position.
Owner: Raymond Daniels and Wayne Scherr
Trainer: Chris Hartman
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Jenny's Rocket, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $250,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-3 from 10 starts, $199,730
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (3rd), G3 Indiana Derby (3rd)
Post Position 11, Morning Line 50-1
A step below the best, but the Derby is for dreamers and mid-level trainer Chris Hartman has continued to show that he can work with the best when given the chance. Miguel Mena has had a pretty hot hand all summer at Ellis, so that could move him up, and the colt's owners have a really timely cause that could provide extra luck this year.
Owner: Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. C. Oliver Iselin III
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini
Race Record: 1-3-1 from eight starts, $143,732
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (2nd), G3 Gotham (3rd)
Post Position 13, Morning Line 50-1
Clearly second-best to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby, but Romans plans to point this son of Hard Spun to the Run for the Roses. And why not? It's his home track, and the Virginia-bred is improving a bit this year.
Owner: Chester Thomas
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Breeder: Don Alberto Corporation
Sire: Giant's Causeway
Dam: Unappeased, by Galileo
Sales record: $95,000 yearling at Fasig-Tipton Fall sale
Race Record: 2-1-0 from seven starts, $168,553
Major Races: Oaklawn Stakes (1st)
Post Position 9, Morning Line 50-1
Mr. Big News sprang the big upset in the Oaklawn Stakes two back, and the colt could be effective over the Derby distance. He didn't show much in the Blue Grass, but the Derby is for dreamers!
- Calhoun: Derby Distance 'Could Be A Great Equalizer' For Last-Minute Entry Mr. Big News
- Oaklawn Stakes Winner Mr. Big News A Late Declaration For Kentucky Derby
- Mr. Big News' Experience Should Play A Big Role In Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes
- 'High Expectations': Connections Of Mr. Big News Thrilled About Colt's Preakness Berth
- Owner Chester Thomas 'Riding High' With Three Shots In Risen Star
- More here
Owner: David A Bernsen, Exline-Border Racing LLC, Dan Hudock, and Susanna Wilson
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Breeder: Stepping Stone Farm
Sire: Court Vision
Dam: My Tejana Storm, Tejano Run
Sales Record: $60,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from nine starts, $1,310,451
Major Races: G3 La Jolla (2nd), G3 Ohio Derby (3rd), G2 San Felipe (3rd), G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1st), G1 American Pharoah (3rd)
Post Position 4, Morning Lin 50-1
Second in a graded stakes on the turf last out, Storm the Court will ship to Louisville Kentucky Derby. He hasn't produced a top-level win this year, but continues hitting the board or getting close to it on the dirt. Leparoux has committed to ride, and if he's working well, there's always a chance.
- Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Storm The Court, Attachment Rate, And Sole Volante
- Eurton Hoping To Hit Storm The Court's Reset Button In Grassy La Jolla
- Juvenile Champ Storm The Court Made 3-1 Morning Line Favorite In Saturday's $500,000 Ohio Derby
- 'Willing And Game': Champion Storm The Court Confirmed For Arkansas Derby
- More here
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