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The Week In Review: The Year In Which Saratoga Lost Its Mojo

At the conclusion of racing on Monday, Saratoga will have handled about $800 million for the meet, the third highest handle figure ever for the track. On-track attendance was at 1,055,543 after Saturday's GI Jockey Club Gold Cup Day card, setting an all-time record with two racing days to go.

Yet, by just about any measure, it was not a good meet. Saratoga came into 2023 with the wind at its back. Every year the racing seemed to get bigger, the handle would grow and more and more fans would pile into the historic racecourse. Taking out the covid year, handle had risen at Saratoga for five straight years.

Would Saratoga ever lose its momentum or would it keep growing exponentially?

It turned this year. The 12 fatalities, including two particularly gruesome ones that occurred in full view of packed grandstand and before a national TV audience, were as bad as it gets. How many racing fans were turned into ex-racing fans on those days? NYRA has always taken the safety of the horses and jockeys very seriously and will no doubt continue to put in place measures to keep both safe.

They have some control over horse safety, but none over the weather, which was a huge problem at the meet. During the 2022 meet, only 15 races came off the grass. Through Sunday of the 2023 meet, 65 races had come off the grass. There had been 189 grass races run in 2022 versus 129 this year. That always leads to the same problems. When races come off the turf there are always a number of scratches, typically creating off-the-turf races with four or five-horse fields. On Aug. 10, an off-the-turf race actually turned into a match race. This is stuff no one wants to bet on.

NYRA is ready to do what it can to address that problem. NYRA President and CEO Dave O'Rourke has said that there is serious interest in installing a synthetic track at Saratoga by the 2025 meet. It wouldn't replace either the dirt main track or the two turf courses but would give NYRA a third option when it comes to racing surfaces and the synthetic track would largely be put to use when the rains washed races off of the turf.

The weather has been a problem, but if you dig a bit further you can find some signs that Saratoga handle was affected by more than the rain. On GI Travers Day 2023, when two races came off the turf, the handle was $50,183,71. In 2022, the handle was $55,559,315 when one race came off the grass. This past Saturday, on GI Jockey Club Gold Cup Day, they bet $27,400,509 on a day not impacted by weather. The year before the handle was $32,505,600.

“I think what happened is with all the earlier rain we lost some momentum and when that happened it's hard to get it back,” O'Rourke said.

Field size fell by 2.5 percent, from 7.75 to 7.56. A more telling number was the average handle per betting interest. It was $255,773 this year and $272,599 last year, for a drop of 6.2%.

What's done is done and there's nothing to do now but turn the page and hope Saratoga 2024 is one of the safest meets in history and the weather is gorgeous from opening day to closing day. The place is still magical and popular, but everything peaks at some point. Maybe that's happened to Saratoga.

European Dominance On The Turf

This is getting a bit ridiculous. U.S. racing is used to second-flight European horses coming over and winning some of our biggest grass race, but the year European shippers are having this year shows that our grass horses are vastly inferior. Take Saturday's GIII $2 million Mint Millions at Kentucky Downs. There was only one European shipper in the field, Ancient Rome (War Front), who is trained by Charlie Hills and was ridden by Jamie Spencer. Facing the likes of GI winner Annapolis (War Front), he came into it off a win in a handicap race. Before that you had to go all the way back to 2021 for his last graded win, a victory in the GIII Prix des Chenes in France. He won that by a half-length. He won the Mint Millions by a half-length.

A week earlier, it was Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). He came into the GI Sword Dancer after losing by 21 1/2 lengths in the GI King George VI and Queen Elizabeth I Stakes, where he went off at 125-1. Yet, that was good enough to win the Sword Dancer by 4 1/2 lengths. The win broke a nine-race losing streak, going back to the 2021 GI Belmont Derby where he also took advantage of a weak group of U.S. turf horses.

Then there's Aspen Grove (Ire) (Justify). She was sent off at 50-1 in the GI Irish 1,000 Guineas and finished last beaten 14 1/2 lengths. But that was good enough for her to take home first prize of $500,000 in the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational in her next outing.

Good luck to our horses in the Breeders' Cup turf races.

Surprise, Surprise, Still No News Out Of Saudi Arabia

Back in 2020, Maximum Security (New Year's Day) crossed the line in front in the 2020 $20 million Saudi Cup. Just a few days later, his trainer, Jason Servis, was arrested and charged with using performance-enhancing drugs on most of the horses in his barn. When that news broke, the Jockey Club of Saudi Arabia said it was withholding the purses until it could investigate the situation

It's been 29 months since Servis was indicted, he has pled guilty and in November will begin a four-year prison sentence. The case is over, but the Saudis still haven't paid out the purse. Presumably, the winner's share of $10 million will eventually go to Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). But no one has been paid as the Saudis, who should have all the evidence they'll ever need, do nothing and don't seem to be in any hurry to write a check. We tried to get an update on the situation this week, but the answer we got didn't really answer anything.

“Due to the extended nature of the judicial process in the USA, the JCSA has been unable to fully conduct its own investigation into the awarding of the winner's prize for The Saudi Cup 2020,” wrote the JCSA's Sarah Tregoning in response to an email sent by the TDN. “Now that the legal process in the USA has finished, the JCSA expects to swiftly conclude its own investigation and make an announcement in the coming weeks.”

I wouldn't hold your breath.

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Letter To The Editor: It All Begins With Churchill Downs

Horse racing is at an existential moment. Just weeks after a series of breakdowns at Churchill Downs cast a shadow over the Kentucky Derby, a wave of horrifying horse deaths at Saratoga Race Course has once again brought questions about safety to the forefront of public consciousness.

This is a tragedy, as every horse that breaks down also breaks our hearts. However, I believe our sport has reached a tipping point, and I predict there will be a Silver Lining emerging from all these tragedies. In the past week, I have engaged with industry leaders, including the current NYRA Board of Directors as well as Dave O'Rourke, NYRA's President & CEO. They are in the process of analyzing relevant data regarding synthetic surfaces and the potential installation at our NY racetracks.

This is significant. As a reminder, the Stronach Group eliminated synthetic tracks from their California venues due to insufficient industry support. Keeneland was also compelled to remove its synthetic course because too many owners and trainers were unwilling to prepare for major races, such as The Kentucky Derby, on synthetic surfaces.

This is precisely why we need the entire industry to embrace change collectively. The New York Racing Association (NYRA), which operates Saratoga, is already a leader in horse safety. These recent tragedies are serving as a catalyst to advance additional safety initiatives, including an increased commitment to investing in transformational science and technology, including synthetic surfaces.

NYRA is currently installing a Tapeta track at Belmont Park, which will serve as the fourth racing surface. In light of the recent events at Saratoga, NYRA is contemplating an expansion of this commitment. Additionally, NYRA quickly adopted measures to enhance veterinary scrutiny, such as requiring a trainer's attending veterinarian to attest to the horse's soundness prior to entry. NYRA will also be investing in the most advanced PET and CAT scan technology to help detect pre-existing injuries before they become more serious.

Track superintendent Glen Kozak and the NYRA team excel in constructing and maintaining the current racing surfaces at all NYRA facilities. They are leaders in the field, even consulted by competing tracks around the country. However, dirt track safety remains an industry-wide concern. The surface is outdated when compared to newer engineered alternatives.

As trainer Mark Casse, who trains the majority of his stable on the synthetic course at Woodbine, points out, “What if we had kept the Model T? Instead, look at what we've done with automobiles, how we've made them so much safer. We're still using a racetrack that's been around for 125 years, and there's only so much you can do for it.”

A mounting body of evidence indicates that synthetic tracks are safer for horses. A study by the University of Kentucky found that horses were less prone to injuries on synthetic tracks compared to dirt tracks. A University of Pennsylvania study discovered that synthetic tracks were linked to a lower risk of catastrophic injuries. Most recently, data from The Jockey Club Equine Injury Database conclusively demonstrates that synthetic courses were considerably safer than dirt surfaces in every year from 2019 to 2022, over three times safer in 2022.

The future of horse racing hinges on a bold collective effort from the industry. However, achieving this requires industry-wide consensus on necessary steps to enhance safety for both the cherished animals and the brave jockeys risking life and limb. A fragmented endeavor, however well-intentioned, is likely to fail, dooming our sport to historical insignificance.

Past attempts to introduce synthetic surfaces faltered, partly due to the industry's collective reluctance to embrace change. The horse racing industry stands at a pivotal juncture and should move together in a unified way to ensure horse safety and industry survival.

I call upon the country's leading racing organizations to embrace science and technology by quickly moving to adopt synthetic surfaces.

This silver lining all begins with The Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Inc. Board.

Earle Mack was a member of the Board of Trustees, New York Racing Association, Chairman of the New York State Racing Commission, Member of the New York State Thoroughbred Racing Capital Investment Fund and a Member, Board of Directors, of the New York State Thoroughbred Breeding and Development Fund Corp. He was honored with the Eclipse Award of Merit in recognition for a lifetime of outstanding achievement last year.

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Letter to the Editor: Bill Casner

Editor's note: Bill Casner, a long-time participant in many facets of racing, is probably best known for founding WinStar Farm with Kenny Troutt and winning the 2010 GI Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. Among Casner's many roles in the sport have been founding director of the Race for Education and Kentucky Equine Education Program (KEEP). He has sold his interest in WinStar to Troutt and currently operates as Casner Racing.

Horse racing is in a firestorm. We are at survival tipping point. The decisions that are made in the short term will determine whether horseracing can endure as we know it. The American public has no tolerance for what they perceive as a sport that is immersed in carnage. I commend Churchill Downs for suspending racing to take a hard look at their future and to explore solutions that will be significant in mitigating breakdowns and restoring confidence to our fans.

The one decision that would be a major game changer is to convert the racing surface at Churchill Downs to synthetic. In the released 2022 The Jockey Club (TJC) Equine Injury Database (EID) for the year 2021, injuries on dirt were 1.44 per 1,000 horse starts. Turf injuries were 0.99 per 1,000. Injuries on synthetic were vastly diminished with 0.41 per 1,000. This data shows that synthetic surfaces are 3.5 times safer than dirt and 2.2 times safer than turf. These stats are compelling in showing the exponential safety of today's synthetic surfaces over dirt and turf.

The data is compelling but it doesn't tell “WHY” synthetic tracks are safer. Back in 2006, I chaired the shoeing committee for TJC Welfare and Safety Summit. We were tasked to examine the safety of toe grabs which Dr. Sue Stover at UC Davis had shown to significantly contribute to breakdowns. We employed sophisticated high-speed cameras with a closed group of nine horses provided by Chris McCarron's jockey school to understand why toe grabs were contributing to breakdowns. We filmed the hoof's contact with the racing surface using a variety of shoes with varying toe grab lengths on both dirt surfaces and Keeneland's synthetic track.

The results were dramatic. What we learned was the effect of “slide” on the lower limb of the horse. With Queen's Plates, the front foot has an average slide on dirt of 3 1/2 to 5 inches. The average slide on synthetic was 1 1/2 inches. Slide is important to understand. It's the “give” in a horse's stride. The increased length of slide on dirt causes two things to happen. First, it magnifies torque on a horse's lower limb. If a horse “toes in” the limb incurs torque medially because of the increased forces on the outside of the hoof. If they toe out, then the torque is lateral with the increased forces on the inside of the foot. And when horses step in holes on a dirt track, the torque can go either way. This doesn't happen on synthetic tracks because of the shorter slide which greatly diminishes torque. Also, a horse's foot is always landing flat on a synthetic surface as opposed to the cuppy holes that cover a dirt track. Synthetic also provides a much higher energy absorption than dirt with a higher energy return.

The second important factor that we were able to measure was the magnified load on the pastern that was presented on dirt. Because of the exaggerated slide and delayed break over on dirt, the pastern continues to load through the stride, increasing its drop by as much as an inch over synthetic. We were also able to see this increased load when horses landed in the “holes” created on dirt tracks.

As you can visualize, the increased load or drop of the pastern creates excessive strains on the suspensory apparatus of the horse's lower limbs magnifying the opportunity for a catastrophic failure. When a horse blows out its suspensory apparatus in a race it leads to a broken leg in the next few strides.

Suspensory and tendon injuries are extremely rare on synthetic but occur way more frequently on dirt because of these magnified strains.

The videos also exposed how lethal toe grabs were on all surfaces. They were especially detrimental on synthetic because they abruptly stopped the foot not allowing any slide. This is why trainers were experiencing rear-end injuries early on because they were continuing to use toe grabs on the rear feet.

Sarah Andrew

Catastrophic break downs are rarely caused by one bad step although this is more likely on dirt. As most orthopedic surgeons will testify, they are the result of cumulative microscopic injuries that accrue with the thousands of steps a horse accumulates in training and racing. It's the laws of physics. Excessive torque and loads on a horse's legs will eventually take its toll. With a synthetic surface these strains are greatly diminished and a horse's natural ability to remodel its bone will repair and strengthen it at a cellular level.

We not only have the irrefutable data over hundreds of thousands of horse starts on synthetic but we have the notable success of several major tracks that have employed them.

The first is Keeneland. The last meet they ran on synthetic in 2014 was the most successful meet in Keeneland's history at that point. All-time attendance and handle records were set. There were record field sizes, minimal scratches with inclement weather when races were taken off turf. And most importantly, there were zero breakdowns!

The second is Santa Anita. The last meet run at Santa Anita in 2009 had an injury rate of 0.57 per 1,000 horse starts compared to their pre-synthetic era on dirt of 2.78 per 1,000. That computes to a 4.8 times higher safety record. This is in spite of a poor-quality installation that would not properly drain, eventually having a subsurface membrane failure allowing aggregate to float to the surface.

Here are some compelling stats from three tracks currently running on synthetic surfaces: Golden Gate, Presque Isle, and Gulfstream.

Golden Gate had an injury rate of .38 per 1,000 with 12,986 horse starts in 2021 and 2022 on their Tapeta surfaces.

Presque Isle race meets in 2021/2022 had 0.24 injuries per 1,000 with 8,178 horse starts.

Gulfstream with its newly installed Tapeta track had the best record of all with only one injury out of 7,085 horse starts with 0.14/1,000. This translates to a 9.7 times safer surface than their dirt track.

Belmont has recognized the advantages of having a synthetic surface with its scheduled completion in the spring of 2024.

Injuries on a national basis have dropped significantly at certain tracks since the implementation of intensified pre-race veterinary examinations of our horses and have the promise of continuing to diminish injuries with mandated requirements by HISA. This high-level scrutiny of starters combined with the safest possible racing surface will dramatically reduce injuries and show the world that we care.

Horseracing is a sport with a rich history of tradition. The thought of changing the racing surface of the Kentucky Derby to a synthetic surface will not appeal to those that value tradition above the safety of our horses and the survival of our beautiful sport. If we do not take drastic proven steps to significantly eliminate breakdowns we are destined for the fate of Greyhound racing.

Today's public has no stomach or tolerance for what they perceive as abuse of our horses. The “writing is on the wall” or in our case the New York Times, CNN and the 6 o'clock news. We either embrace innovative change supported by the data to maximize safety for our horses and riders or we are destined to experience a slow painful death.

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Letter To the Editor: Dirt, Synthetic and Sprints

It is with a lot interest that I read the two Op/Eds from Earl Mack and Bill Finley published this week about the dirt vs. synthetic surfaces, and, although the numbers speak for themselves, I think we should look at another factor.

A lot more sprints are being run on dirt than either turf or synthetic. The composition of the dirt surface makes speed the best asset for horses who compete and it is common to see fractions of sub-22 seconds for a first 1/4 of a mile, and over 24 or 25 seconds on the final portion of a race. Those fractions are even more polarized in dirt route races where lower-caliber horses would sometimes finish their last 1/4 of a mile in 27 or 28 seconds, merely faster than a two-minute pace.

On either turf or synthetic, Jockeys have (usually) enough common sense to rate their mounts early and save something for the end. The kindness of the courses makes it that horses can close late and still prevail if best.

Unfortunately, speed hurts horses, be during training or racing. This is the nature of the beast with dirt racing and I believe that one of the major factors that numbers of fatalities are so much higher on that surface, has a lot to do with the pace that races are run at. Horses finish tired, experience a lack of oxygen in their metabolism and that hypoxia generates injuries, and sometimes fatalities.

The table tells us that rate of fatalities is higher in sprints than two turn races, which could validate the argument that early speed more than distance is a vector to injuries.

Another interesting fact in The Jockey Club numbers is that, for both turf and synthetic surfaces, the rate of fatalities has been steadily decreasing by between 15 and 30% every year for the last four years, mostly due to increased veterinary oversight. But on dirt, the numbers seem to have reached a plateau since it has steadily stayed the same during the same period, despite all the scrutiny it has been under.

–Leonard Powell

Editor's Note:

Southern California trainer Leonard Powell is referring to statistics from the Equine Injury Database which show that since 2009, the fatal injury rate has been 1.93 per thousand starts on races under six furlongs, 1.66 in races from six to eight furlongs, and 1.54 in races over a mile.

The complete table may be seen here.

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