Equibase Analysis: By My Standards Poised To Run Down Knicks Go

The number seven is rampant in the 2021 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes, as each of the five entrants possesses seven career victories. Combined, the field has won 35 of 70 races for more than $12 million career earnings. Leading the group is Knicks Go, who has made a career of taking the lead at the start and running his competitors off their feet while coasting home in front in the final eighth of a mile. Using his early speed, Knicks Go has won five of his last six North American starts, most recently the Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap at the distance of the Whitney.

Next in accomplishments is the filly Swiss Skydiver, winner of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes against males last fall and winner of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile earlier this year. Maxfield has only been defeated one time in eight career starts and enters the Whitney off strong victories in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes and in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes, also at the distance of this race. Silver State has also won two graded stakes in a row starting with the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in April at this nine-furlong trip, followed up by a win in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap in June. Last but certainly not least in this strong quintet is By My Standards¸ runner-up in the 2020 Whitney and winner of the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April before a runner-up effort in the Metropolitan Handicap. 

Owing to the heavy favoritism Knicks Go will receive from bettors, I'm going to opt for By My Standards to post the upset in this year's Whitney Stakes. Winner of the 2019 Louisiana Derby and well-regarded in the Kentucky Derby that year, By My Standards had little chance in the Derby after getting squeezed back at the start and losing position. Sitting out the balance of 2019, By My Standards returned as a 4-year-old last year and won three races in a row including both the New Orleans Classic Stakes and Oaklawn Handicap before a big runner-up effort behind Tom's d'Etat in the 2020 Stephen Foster Stakes. Next came a career best effort with a 113  Equibase Speed Figure when second behind Improbable in the 2020 Whitney. He ran poorly last fall in two races but just as he did to start 2020, By My Standards started 2021 with a bang, first winning the Oaklawn Mile in April before a runner-up effort in the Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) in June. Although second in the Met Mile, By My Standards may have been best as he brushed the gate at the start, was soundly bumped back to last of six and was wide on the turn. Nevertheless, By My Standards rallied and was beaten just one length at the finish by Silver State. Now having finished first or second in five of six career starts at this mile and one-eighth distance, with a clean break By My Standards can post the upset win in this year's Whitney by running as well as he did in last year's edition of the race.

That being said, By My Standards must run down Knicks Go in the stretch to win. There's a saying in racing that  “speed is the ultimate bias,” and with Knicks Go that is a fact. Brilliant as a 2-year-old when winning the Breeders' Futurity in the fall of 2019, Knicks Go went off form but got his brilliant speed back after moving to the barn of Brad Cox over the winter of 2020. Reeling off three wins in a row including the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall, Knicks Go won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational this past January with a strong 115  figure just one point shy of the career best 116 figure earned three months earlier. Following uncharacteristically poor fourth-place finishes in the Saudi Cup and Metropolitan Mile, Knicks Go showed all his speed, and talent, winning the Cornhusker Handicap last month at the distance of the Whitney and could prove impossible to catch once again.

Maxfield has been nearly perfect in his career, winning seven of eight races. His only loss came when trying 1 1/4 miles in the Santa Anita Handicap in March, perhaps just a bit farther than he wants to run. In his only try at the nine-furlong distance of the Whitney¸ Maxfield easily won the Stephen Foster Stakes in his most recent start near the end of June, earning a 107 figure. Perhaps he didn't have to run any faster, because two months earlier when winning the Alysheba Stakes, Maxfield earned a career-best 115 figure which stands up as nearly the same as the best figures of the top contenders in this field. It must also be noted that jockey Jose Ortiz is a perfect five-for-five when riding Maxfield, compared to four-for-five for Joel Rosario (Knicks Go) and seven-for-14 for Gabriel Saez (By My Standards). 

In terms of probability, both Silver State and the filly Swiss Skydiver can't be ruled out. Silver State earned a 113 figure winning the Oaklawn Handicap in April at the distance of the Whitney before a game victory in the Metropolitan Handicap, while Swiss Skydiver already proved capable of beating males in last year's Preakness (111 figure) and won the Beholder Mile in March off a layoff similar to the one she's coming off today. Notably, North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Swiss Skydiver for the first time and the jockey is in a pitched battle with his brother Jose for the coveted Saratoga riding title, with the brothers having won 24 races each through Wednesday and one behind leading jockey Luis Saez. 

Win Contenders, in preference order:
By My Standards
Knicks Go
Maxfield

Whitney Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 7 – Post Time 5:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
4-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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This Side Up: Asmussen Poised to Convert Silver to Gold

Could happen, you know. Within the random weavings of the Thoroughbred, after all, it's always tempting to discern some pattern suggestive of a coherent, governing narrative. And if Silver State (Hard Spun) were to win the GI Whitney S., and in the process happened to become the 9,446th winner saddled by his trainer, it might well feel as though 35 years of skill and endeavor, processed daily through random fluctuations of good or bad luck, have all led logically and inexorably to this pinnacle.

The trouble is that whoever came up with that plot should probably never get a job in Hollywood. For if Steve Asmussen is indeed to pass Dale Baird's all-time record Saturday, then any suitably imaginative scriptwriter would surely have contrived that he did so, not in this storied, $1-million race, corroborating his enshrinement five years ago in the adjacent Hall of Fame, but in the somewhat less resonant environs of Mountaineer Casino, Racetrack and Resort.

Sure, it would be apt for such a momentous landmark to evoke one of Asmussen's masterpieces, Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), who in 2017 became his only Whitney winner (famously carrying a fifth shoe, the “rabbit's foot”, tangled in his tail). Silver State also represents his parents' old clients Winchell Thoroughbreds–in this instance, along with Willis Horton Racing–and the patient development of his potential is similarly exemplary of his trainer's dexterity.

Even so, there would arguably have been a still more pleasing symmetry to Asmussen instead breaking the tape in the GIII West Virginia Derby, a race that has so far contributed five wins (another record) to his overall tally. As it is, the 14 runners eligible to make history Saturday are confined to four other tracks–and Asmussen leaves undisturbed, this time, soil that was for decades the fiefdom of the very man whose place in the annals of the Turf he is about to supplant.

The Baird era here, spanning 20 consecutive training titles, straddled the transition from Waterford Park into pioneer racino; and was only ended by his shocking loss, at 72, in an automobile accident just before Christmas 2007. Just think: his nearest pursuer at the time, Jack Van Berg, was over 3,000 career wins behind.

But Baird never won the local Derby; never won a graded stakes of any description, in fact. He plied his trade in cheap claimers, sometimes rotating as many as 200 horses in a year, the majority in his own silks. Asmussen, in contrast, has given us a Horse of the Year four times in the last 13 years, becoming a paradigm of the “super trainer” elite who have transformed the horizons of their profession. In the process, having once amassed 650 winners in a single year, he has shown how these trainers must count delegation among their key skills.

Silver State training Saturday in Whitney preparation | Sarah Andrew

Sheer volume, as such, might appear to be the only challenge shared by the hometown trainer Baird and the federal power Asmussen. Nor, seemingly, could you obviously conflate their personalities. Baird was evidently a low-key type, reserved and unassuming, given to understated humor; Asmussen, as anyone can see, is a truly “spectacular” specimen. With his flamboyant looks and expressive bearing, he commands attention whether he's grinning or glowering.

But remember that both men honed their intuition in a family of horsemen. Baird's father, brother, son and nephew all embedded their surname in a training dynasty. And I love how the latter first clocked this vivid counterfoil to his uncle, at Presque Isle Downs one day: he saw Asmussen going down the shedrow to discuss a particular horse with one of his team and, as they spoke, instinctively grabbing a brush to groom the animal's opposite side.

Nobody has to tell Asmussen that Silver State represents only the apex of a pyramid with a very wide base. In his first year he won a single race, at Ruidoso Downs, and $2,324. Through his first decade, he started two horses in graded stakes. As he recently told colleague Bill Finley, everything “goes back to my mom and dad showing me that every horse in front of you is important… [that] every single horse was just as important as the next one.”

But this outlook, in turn, complements a voraciously competitive nature. In another of the many interviews to which he has graciously submitted in anticipation of his feat, Asmussen made candid and instructive reference to the intensity of his own character. “Either everything matters,” he said, “or nothing matters.”  Not an attitude that will endear everyone, perhaps–but one you have to love, if you're an owner or indeed a racehorse.

Asmussen was joined in the Hall of Fame by a handful of privileged rivals Friday, but its doors have never admitted Baird. He instead had to settle for a Special Eclipse Award, after becoming the first to 9,000 winners. Nonetheless you suspect that he would bestow a posthumous blessing on the man who is about to efface his record; and if it can't happen in the West Virginia Derby, then Baird would certainly settle for destiny instead summoning into the record books the gelding Asmussen fields under a $5,000 claiming tag at Louisiana Downs.

Another fitting memorial could yet be carved in the West Virginia Derby, by one of the latest Hall of Fame inductees–and surely among the most automatic ever. Because Todd Pletcher's runner Bourbonic, as a son of Bernardini, represents what has suddenly become a still more precious genetic resource.

The mighty Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

The silver lining to the loss of this most beautiful of stallions is that his precocious achievements as a broodmare sire already guarantee that his legacy will continue to evolve for many years yet. The Whitney, indeed, could well yield another garland for his daughter Velvety, the dam of Maxfield (Street Sense).

She's a half-sister to Sky Mesa (Pulpit), their Storm Cat dam in turn a sister to Bernstein, and this is the branch of the La Troienne dynasty that goes through Buckpasser's dam Busanda. It has corresponding seeding all the way through–next dams are by Affirmed, Round Table, Nasrullah and War Admiral–and Maxfield's Whitney performance will simply help to determine how affordable he may be as a truly aristocratic stud prospect.

Bernardini himself had suffered the indignity of a fee slide from $100,000 as recently as 2017 to $35,000 for his final spring. Yet his stature as broodmare sire had meanwhile redressed a couple of fallow campaigns for his own foals. To some of us, compounded distaff influences will always provide a sturdier foothold in a pedigree than the putative alchemies between sire lines. His Grade I-winning dam Cara Rafaela, for instance, was one of the markers laid down in a debut crop of just 32 named foals by her sire Quiet American, alongside two other significant females in champion Hidden Lake and the remarkable broodmare Quiet Dance, dam of one Horse of the Year and second dam of another.

Her grandson, of course, was none other than Gun Runner. And it so happens that Asmussen starts this momentous day by saddling a member of that horse's first crop, the Winchell homebred Under the Gun, in the opener at Saratoga. Later he gives a debut to Vodka Mardini, a son of Bernardini, who also features as sire of the barn's final runner on the card, Miner's Queen. So, actually, you know what? Maybe there is a decent scriptwriter up there after all.

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Knicks Go Meets Maxfield in Star-Studded Whitney

For a race that offers just a five-horse field, Saturday's GI Whitney S. at Saratoga will nevertheless feature plenty of intrigue, as two of the handicap division's top stars will meet the one-two finishers from the GI Metropolitan H. and a certain champion filly whose trainer called an audible to enter her in the meet centerpiece for older horses, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Classic.

Given the morning-line at 6-5 is the Korea Racing Authority's enigmatic star speedball Knicks Go (Paynter). A shocking winner of the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at 70-1 for Ben Colebrook in 2018, the gray failed to find the mark in his next 10 tries before being reborn when switching to Brad Cox's barn. Winning a pair of allowance/optional claiming events by a combined 17 3/4 lengths, Knicks Go survived a sizzling pace and kicked clear to a 3 1/2-length conquest of the GI Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall at Keeneland and followed that up with a frontrunning score in the GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S.

It's been up-and-down in three starts since, however, as he retreated to a well-beaten fourth in the G1 Saudi Cup and filled the same slot with no visible excuse as a 4-5 chalk in the Met Mile. Shipping in to Iowa for the GIII Cornhusker H. July 2 at Prairie Meadows, however, he was back to the old Knicks Go, cruising to a devastating 10 1/4-length romp with a career-high 113 Beyer. In a short field with no definite other speed signed on, the 5-year-old figures to get the right setup in this nine-furlong test.

“He'll break running. We'll see how far he can take himself around there, hopefully the whole way,” Cox told the NYRA notes team. “He's set up for a big effort. He's been working really well at Ellis. [The Cornhusker] gave us the confidence to try the Whitney. It solidified that the horse needs two turns. We're excited about getting him back in the Grade I ranks going around two turns.”

Likely to be a close second choice is Godolphin's once-beaten sensation Maxfield (Street Sense), who tries for his first Grade I win since his juvenile season. He stamped himself as a potential championship contender when romping by 5 1/2 lengths from well back in the Breeders' Futurity, but a series of setbacks forced him to miss the Breeders' Cup and, after returning for a score in the GIII Matt Winn S. last May, eventually the Triple Crown. The imposing dark bay picked up where he left off with a 3 1/4-length success in the Tenacious S. last December at Fair Grounds, but suffered his first defeat when third at 11-10 in the GI Santa Anita H. Mar. 6. Since then, he notched open-length victories in the GIII Alysheba S. and GII Stephen Foster S. at Churchill to run his impressive career record to 7-for-8.

“He's a horse that even still is lightly raced. We were always on the back foot with him,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “He ran twice as a 2-year-old, and we've always been battling a little inexperience or a lack of seasoning. But ever since we ran him in California and his couple runs since, he's getting to where he's a more seasoned horse and I think that's going to [serve] him well from here on in because he's going to have to be at his best against the horses he's up against. It's a big test for him, so we'll see how he stacks up against them.”

The favorite of the fans–if not the bettors–will be Peter Callahan's Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil), entered against the boys after a Saratoga barn quarantine forced trainer Ken McPeek to redirect her from a planned start in last Sunday's GIII Shuvee S. Reeling off a dazzling championship 3-year-old campaign that included 10 races at nine different tracks, five graded stakes triumphs and, of course, the chestnut's seismic defeat of eventual champion Authentic (Into Mischief) in the GI Preakness S. She flattened out to seventh in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, however, and, after bouncing back with a tally in the GI Beholder Mile S. Mar. 13 at Santa Anita, could not stay with Letruska (Super Saver) or Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) when third, beaten 6 1/2 lengths, in the GI Apple Blossom H. Apr. 17 at Oaklawn.

“She's had a bumpy first half of the year,” McPeek said. “No major issues, but just stuff that kept her from showing off. She had a little hind leg infection that was bothering her. It didn't appear to be a big deal going into Oaklawn, but it might have been why she ran a little flat that day. We're excited about [the Whitney]. The Shuvee would have been ideal, she's been ready to run. I've always thought if you're here, you run where you're at. It's a little bit out of the box, but she's ready.”

There's a realistic possibility that streaking Silver State (Hard Spun) could give trainer Steve Asmussen his record-breaking 9,446th win in Saratoga's second-most prestigious race. Scoring just once–in a dead heat–in his first five career outings, the $450,000 Keeneland September buy has been unstoppable since returning from a seven-month layoff last October, visiting the winner's circle six straight times, including in the Met last out June 5. The runner-up that day, By My Standards (Goldencents), who was also second to eventual champion older dirt male Improbable (City Zip) in last year's Whitney, rounds out the field.

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Victory In ‘Win and You’re In’ Whitney Would Give Silver State Breeders’ Cup Options

Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton Racing's Silver State has thrived since returning from a seven-month hiatus in October, demonstrating class and determination with gradual steps up the ladder from allowance winner to Grade 1 winner.

On Saturday, the talented Hard Spun bay will face off against some of the best older horses in the handicap division in Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Whitney at Saratoga race course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Silver State's hot streak commenced at allowance level, when successfully notching his conditions at Keeneland and Churchill Downs last fall. He brought his winning form to Arkansas with a trio of stakes victories at Oaklawn Park.

After a hard-fought outside stretch run in the Jan. 23 Fifth Season, he fended off graded stakes winning veteran Rated R Superstar to capture the Essex on March 13.

Silver State made the grade next out in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on April 17, where he was little further off the pace than usual, racing along the rail and taking some kickback down the backstretch. Approaching upper stretch, he was tipped out several paths wide and took command inside the eighth pole to win a by a half-length.

Silver State upped his win streak to six with a one-length score in the Grade 1 Hill 'n' Dale Metropolitan Handicap on Belmont Stakes Day June 5, where he cut back to one turn and defeated fellow Whitney-aspirants By My Standards and Knicks Go.

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Despite the high hopes, things did not always come easy for Silver State. Following solid placings in the Grade 3 Lecomte [2nd] and Grade 2 Risen Star [3rd] at Fair Grounds in early 2020, he was put to the sidelines following a distant seventh in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at the New Orleans oval.

“Early in his 3-year-old year he behaved like he'd be a really good horse. Hence, why he ran in the Derby prep series in New Orleans,” said Winchell Thoroughbreds racing and bloodstock advisor David Fiske. “He probably just needed to grow up a little bit and fill out. Mentally, he's always been fine. Silver State never had any issues. He's always been a solid horse. When we brought him back in the fall, he was a bigger, stronger version of himself.”

The Whitney is a Breeders' Cup “Win And You're In” event, offering an automatic entry into the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic on November 6 at Del Mar. With a victory in the Met Mile under his belt, the option of pursuing the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile remains under consideration.

“He's kind of standing in the median of the interstate at the moment,” Fiske said. “We haven't really explored a mile and quarter but we're going to run him on Saturday. It's a 'Win And You're In for the Classic,' so it would be nice to have.”

Asmussen and Winchell previously joined forces to capture the 2017 Whitney with Gun Runner. The subsequent Breeders' Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year experienced an unusual addition of weight when pacesetting longshot Cautious Giant sprung a horseshoe high into the air, eventually getting entangled in Gun Runner's tail.

“I even suggested to Steve we tie a horseshoe to Silver State's tail and see if that helps,” Fiske quipped. “For Gun Runner's Whitney, we just flew up for the day. We went to the races, went out for a celebratory dinner and then flew home. I guess that made the day more memorable. The horseshoe in the tail and then Gun Runner being Gun Runner made for a big day.”

In 2017, all eyes were on Gun Runner, who went into the Whitney gate as the 3-5 favorite. Silver State, made 6-1 on the morning line, is a part of a more evenly-matched field which includes Grade 1-winner Maxfield and 2020 Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver in addition to 6-5 morning-line favorite Knicks Go and By My Standards.

“You're going to have to really earn this one. It's a small but quality field,” Fiske said.

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