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Q&A with HISA’s Lisa Lazarus: Part One

Last week, an important piece of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) puzzle was slotted into place when the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority's board of directors announced that Drug Free Sport International (DFSI) had been selected as the enforcement agency for the Anti-Doping and Medication Control (ADMC) arm of the program.

DFSI has helped administer drug testing programs to a slew of human sports organizations, like the National Football League, NCAA, National Basketball Association, Ladies Professional Golf Association, the PGA Tour, NASCAR and Major League Baseball.

Last week's announcement included a new wrinkle in the enforcement side of the ADMC program: DFSI will establish the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit (HIWU), led by a five-member advisory council.

To discuss DFSI's newly minted role within HISA, the evolving shape of the ADMC program and implementation of the safety program on July 1, TDN spoke with HISA CEO Lisa Lazarus. The following has been edited for brevity and for clarity.

TDN: Why did you choose DFSI as the enforcement agency over some of the other possible organizations touted?

Lazarus: The first and most compelling reason is that they have a tremendous amount of experience in drug testing and test planning. As you would know by now, they handle all of the drug testing for the NFL, for the NBA, for Major League Baseball, NCAA, PGA Tour, NASCAR. They really have a wide range of experience, and they've operated in some really very challenging circumstances.

There's going to be a heavy lift, right, to get this all done by Jan. 1. [But] the amount of testing in horse racing is going to be at around the level of what [DFSI are] doing right now, if you add all their testing together. They do more human testing than any other agency in the U.S.

Sarah Andrew

The reason why I was also really impressed with them and convinced that they could make it happen is that around the time that COVID began–and a lot of these testing agencies realized that without sport they'd be really challenged, sort of economically–was [DFSI] quickly dovetailed to COVID testing. They very quickly launched a very good and effective COVID testing program that helped bring a lot of the major sports back into operation. What they were able to show us about how they made that happen in a relatively short timeframe, how successful it was, was one of the things that convinced us that they'd be up for the job.

The other thing was the value proposition. Ultimately, it's the industry that's funding HISA, and so, we want to be sure that whatever money we're spending, we're spending efficiently and wisely. That there's a good value proposition there. We felt that they did. And they also embraced the concept that we had to create this Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit, which I modeled after very successful international units, like the Athletics Integrity Unit, Tennis Integrity Unit. It's been the new wave in the last five or so years, and I really love the idea of trying to make that happen for horse racing. They've shared that vision and we're happy to get behind it and support it.

TDN: The Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit–this five-member advisory council–what is their role exactly?

Lazarus: So, the way that it's working is that HISA has entered into a contract with the Center for Drug Free Sport, and the Center for Drug Free Sport is creating this Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit. There are a couple reasons why we're doing it this way.

One is the horse racing testing business essentially is so big that it really requires, we believe, its own separate entity and its own sort of separate business model. Also, DFSI did not have sufficient existing expertise in some of the areas that we required to run the program effectively…

TDN: Which areas are those?

Lazarus: Those would be prosecutions, like result management–they didn't have an existing legal staff to carry those prosecutions out. Just take a step back for one second. It's very unusual for the testing agency to also do the prosecutions–[DFSI are] not doing that for other clients. That's something we have to build separately. We [also] wanted to put a lot of resources into investigations and they didn't have sufficient in-house resources for investigations.

So, by building this integrity unit, it's allowing us to hire and bring people in that have expertise in those areas.

TDN: You've said the new unit will require 32 employees to do everything from lab accreditation to results reporting, investigation and education. So, those 32 employees will fall under the remit of the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit?

Lazarus: Correct. While some of those employees are existing Center for Drug Free Sport employees that will move over, it's going to be a separate unit that operates on its own. The advisory council is essentially like a smaller board that has the expertise in each of these different pillars to help guide the full-time employees.

TDN: But ultimately it's DFSI who will sign off on whatever the advisory council suggests?

Lazarus: Yes.

Sarah Andrew

TDN: How far along are you in getting that 32-strong workforce together?

Lazarus: I would say we have about half of the key people and I expect in a couple weeks from now, we'll have all of the top people identified and agreements reached with them.

To hire the more junior workers below might take a little bit more time, but we don't expect those to be as difficult to fill–[those are] people that you need to execute the testing, some regional directors and all that. That might take us another few weeks after those two weeks, but I'm confident we're going to have everyone in place by the end of the summer.

TDN: Do you have an idea of cost?

Lazarus: If you saw the budget that was made public, you would see that there's about $5 million to $6 million in anti-doping startup costs for 2022, which also includes some tech costs, because there's various apps, things that we're going to need to build. For 2023, we don't have those costs yet because part of what we want the advisory council to help us decide is the optimum level of tests.

There are three categories of tests in horse racing. We have your out of competition, you have your TCO2 for milk shaking, and then you have regular race-day testing. We have some research and some ideas of what those numbers are optimally, but that's part of what the advisory council is going to help us decide. It'll also involve some determination around what's the right amount of money to spend on investigations. That's part of their role.

TDN: With less than two months to submit the ADMC rules to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), specifically, what parts of the materials that U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) has put together will DFSI use?

Lazarus: Something like 90%. I mean there's only 5%, 10% where we're actually going through to make sure that we haven't missed anything, that everything is fit for purpose.

TDN: Will DFSI take a binary approach to regulating medications like USADA outlined with primary and secondary substances? Or will it look more like the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI) model rules' alphanumeric system?

Lazarus: It'll be 100% only based on the [World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA)] code system, right? You saw the drafted rules and proposed rules that were based on a WADA code philosophy structure but were modified to be sensible for horses. So, that's essentially what it's going to look like. It will not be the ARCI model rules. There are some things in the ARCI model rules that are working really well, that we're going to borrow and integrate, but the system itself is going to be a WADA-based system, philosophically.

TDN: How far along are you in putting together the regulated therapeutics list?

Lazarus: That is something we hope to have together by the end of the summer. That's not something that's going to be subject to review.

TDN: Not?

Lazarus: I'm sorry, we're not going to be ready to release that list when we release the [ADMC] rules for public comment. But everything [ultimately] has to be approved by the FTC. I didn't mean to suggest that wasn't the case.

Coglianese

TDN: Some industry stakeholders have voiced concern about transparency aspects of the USADA materials. For example, “A” sample results aren't necessarily going to be made public until the “B” samples are returned. Is that something DFSI will address?

Lazarus: Yes, that's something that we're still discussing. We recognize how important transparency is. I come from the International Equestrian Federation and their system is to publish as soon as the A sample results are available. They're published unless it involves a minority, so a child, basically. That's a system I personally favor, but we're still evaluating what the right system [is] going to be for this program.

TDN: What laboratories will be used come Jan. 1? Will DFSI bring in its own set of labs?

Lazarus: No. So, the way the system is built is to allow for some fluidity so that we don't have any problem to be up and running January 1st. The law actually provides that any lab accredited by the RMTC [Racing Medication & Testing Consortium] will have a one-year provisional accreditation while we start accrediting the labs. There are nine labs that are currently accredited by the RMTC.

TDN: Does the variance in testing capability between those batch of labs pose any legal liability under this uniform banner?

Lazarus: You raise a really good question. That's something that is going to be a part of the program, which is the harmonization piece. We're going to require the labs to be harmonized, so that they [ultimately] reach agreement where screening limits are consistent from lab to lab once they're reaccredited. It would not be a success if labs had different levels of positive test assessments. If the levels or the testing had any discrepancies, that wouldn't be optimal, obviously, so that's something that we're going to work very hard at achieving.

TDN: How quickly are you hoping that harmonization process to occur?

Lazarus: Obviously as soon as possible. That's not my area of expertise. We have Dr. Larry Bowers [former chief science officer at USADA], who's going to be our resource in that regard. I don't know off my head, but obviously we're hoping to work toward it quite quickly. And we also hope that with a smaller number of labs that are accredited, that will be something achievable [without] a whole lot of difficulty or challenge.

TDN: You had talked before, prior to DFSI coming on board, about the whereabouts program being phased in over time. Is that still the case?

Lazarus: Yes, we're looking at the optimal whereabouts program. It's something that we hope we'll be able to get off the ground fairly quickly. The question is: Given that most horses are stabled at the race tracks, what does a whereabout system really need to be?

A horse that needs to be available for testing [within] several hours notice, we need to know where the horse is. But we've realized, and as we've thought through this, that for the vast majority of horses, we already have that information. So, it's going to take us a little bit of time to figure out what the best program is, but we do expect to have one within the first couple years.

Coady

TDN: 5 Stones intelligence (5Si) is going to be bought on board as an investigative body. What layers of transparency will surround the investigative work that 5 Stones does to make sure that that work will hold up legal scrutiny?

Lazarus: The first thing I'll say is that the reason why we thought it just made a lot of sense to involve 5 Stones–and they were eager to be supportive–is that there already are entities like The Jockey Club [and] The Meadowlands that have spent considerable amount of funds to have 5 Stones investigate actors in racing. So why wouldn't we want to take the benefit of their knowledge, their research, their information base to help us?

From my standpoint, with regards to the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit, our job is not to prosecute actors, or to make sure things stand up in court. The way that we'll use the investigative resource is to try to help us figure out who the cheaters are and what they're using and when to test them and for what. And that's how we'll mostly use the investigative resource.

Obviously, if they're used for prosecutions, I think they're fairly capable and also experienced at making sure that evidence is strong. But for us, it's really about getting the information that allows us to test in a way that's really efficient.

If you test humans, horses, anyone without that investigative resource, you usually have about 1% to 2% hit rate in terms of positive tests. When you use investigative resources, that goes up to 15% to 20%. So, it's a huge difference.

TDN: It's been discussed how a centralized database could be used to identify outliers, potential cheats and whatnot, as well as to help with the safety side of things. How far along is that database from being fully built and operational?

Lazarus: In one way we're far along and one way we're not far along at all.

We've already started the process of registering horses, so the database is live, it's available. If you go to our website, you could register yourself and your horses. But we don't have a huge body of data yet because the registration processes just started in the last couple of weeks.

However, come July 1, if you want to participate in the covered horse race, which is in any horse racing jurisdiction that exports their signal, then you'll have to register with us. So, we expect, in a few months, to have a very considerable database. Then we'll let the veterinary experts help us figure out how to use it in a way that's going to help horses, help keep everyone safe.

TDN: Do you have a rough date with which you'd like to see something really substantive up, a close approximation of an ideal end goal for this database?

Lazarus: I think a year from July 1 [2022]–which is our deadline [for implementation]–we'll be in a position to really have the data that we need to perform the sort of analysis that we think will make a difference. Two or three years down the line, it'll be even better.

Note: Part two of this Q&A will encompass the working relationship between the Authority and DFSI, media criticisms of the new enforcement agency and potential problems when HISA launches in less than two months.

The post Q&A with HISA’s Lisa Lazarus: Part One appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: First Crops Yield Classic Winners

Rich Strike (Keen Ice), upset winner of the Gl Kentucky Derby at 80-1, and Secret Oath (Arrogate), the powerful Gl Kentucky Oaks winner, are members of the first crops of their respective sires, both of whom were late-developing Classic-distance horses. Keen Ice and Arrogate each won his first stakes race at Saratoga in late August at three, in the Gl Travers S. at 10 furlongs. Keen Ice won the “Midsummer Classic” in 2015 at 16-1, defeating Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in a shocker. Arrogate won the race the next year at 12-1 by an astonishing 13 1/2 lengths, setting a track record of 1:59.36 in the process. At stud, neither was expected to make a notable impression until his first crop was three, and that's how things played out. Arrogate finished 10th among leading first-crop sires of 2021 and Keen Ice 12th. Neither was represented by a black-type winner last year.

It's a bit of a different story now. Keen Ice and Arrogate are the sires of two black-type winners apiece, which wouldn't be anything to shout home about, except they've accounted for the two most prestigious races for 3-year-old colts and fillies.

By Curlin, Keen Ice was raced by Jerry Crawford's Donegal, whose Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) came from far back to finish fifth in the Derby behind Rich Strike. Crawford, a client of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, has a penchant for purchasing late-running 10-furlong horses, which I wrote about in this space two weeks ago, and Keen Ice, a $120,000 yearling, fit that profile. Initially trained by Dale Romans, Keen Ice was transferred to Todd Pletcher sometime during his 4-year-old campaign, and for Pletcher he won the Gll Suburban over 10 furlongs at five. However, Keen Ice only won three of 24 starts during his career, though he placed in numerous Grade l races for both Romans and Pletcher and earned $3.4 million. As a strict come-from-behind horse, he was frequently pace-traffic/trouble-compromised in races, most of which were usually too short for him. The 2017 edition of the Gl Whitney at Saratoga over nine furlongs is a case in point: Gun Runner, a son of Candy Ride (Arg), led for most of the race and won by 5 1/4 lengths; early on, Keen Ice trailed in last after a bad start but rallied for second.

Arrogate, a gray son of Unbridled's Song trained by Bob Baffert, was literally and figuratively a horse of a different color from Keen Ice. He had speed and the ability to carry it a distance, plus the acceleration to outrun opponents from anywhere in a race. He won his Travers leading throughout, but in a celebrated Gl Breeders' Cup Classic later that year against California Chrome, Arrogate impressively ran down his pace-setting older rival, who looked a winner in deep stretch only before Arrogate passed him to win. Keen Ice finished third, 10 3/4 lengths behind California Chrome, after getting bumped after the break and closing from far back.

Arrogate won seven of 11 starts, earned a North American record $17.4 million, and went to stud at owner Juddmonte Farms for $75,000, the highest fee among newcomers for the 2018 season. Gun Runner, who was retired to Three Chimneys, was second, with a $70,000 fee. Keen Ice began his career for $20,000 at Calumet, which had bought into the horse for his 5-year-old campaign. Keen Ice now stands for $7,500, Arrogate is dead, and Gun Runner, who led all North American-based first-crop runners last year, stood for an advertised fee of $125,000 this year, if you could get to him.

It's all about first-crop 2-year-old performances for the commercial marketplace, but the 10-furlong Classic in Louisville is another matter altogether.

Stamina Lines
Calumet's interest in Keen Ice was understandable for several reasons. The farm's present ownership has a keen interest in standing and breeding stayers, and champion turf horse English Channel, a staying son of Curlin's sire Smart Strike, was Calumet's best recent stallion.

Smart Strike, a son of Mr. Prospector, was known for reliably transmitting stamina; aside from English Channel and Curlin, his sire sons also include Lookin at Lucky, who like Curlin was a champion and Gl Preakness winner. Lookin at Lucky sired the 65-1 Derby winner Country House, who was awarded the Classic on the disqualification of Maximum Security in 2019.

Likewise, Curlin, who wasn't highly placed on the 2012 first-crop list, is a conduit for stamina; his sons and daughters have been particularly active in the runups for the Derby and Oaks through the years, and in 2021, Malathaat won the Oaks. This year, Nest was second to Secret Oath. Curlin got Gl Belmont S. winner Palace Malice from his first crop and Gl Preakness winner Exaggerator a few crops later, and he's one of the most reliable stallions for siring Classic-type runners.

The Mr. Prospector horse Fappiano is also responsible for a notable stamina branch, primarily through Derby winner Unbridled–the sire of Empire Maker and Unbridled's Song. The branch through Empire Maker includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and Derby winner Always Dreaming. Derby winner Real Quiet is a son of the Fappiano horse Quiet American. Another Fappiano branch through Cryptoclearance leads to Candy Ride and his high-flying son Gun Runner, whose first crop contains among others Gl Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife, Gl Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba, and last year's champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu, who lost for the first time in the Oaks.

Unbridled also sired the first-crop Derby winner Grindstone, who wasn't much of a stallion but did sire the Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone. The latter, in turn, sired two memorable first-crop runners: 50-1 Derby winner Mine That Bird and 12-1 Belmont S. winner Summer Bird.

Unbridled's best sire son Unbridled's Song was generally a transmitter of more speed than others from the line. Though his daughters have become outstanding producers of high-level runners, his sire sons have been found wanting, and Arrogate was considered the potential heir until his untimely death in 2020. That mantle now belongs to Lane's End's Liam's Map.

First-Crop Engineering
When stallions like Arrogate and Keen Ice retire, the general thinking of stud farms and breeders is to send them faster and more precocious mares to balance their late development and stamina. Juddmonte, for instance, was actively looking for these types of stakes-winning mares for Arrogate, who was unraced at two.

Ironically, Secret Oath is from a mare that doesn't fit this profile, though her dam was a well-performed runner.

Secret Oath, who was bred and is raced by Briland Farm, is from the Quiet American mare Absinthe Minded, a multiple Graded-placed black-type winner of $607,747. Secret Oath is therefore inbred 4×3 to Fappiano on the sire-line cross (both sire and broodmare sire trace to Fappiano). Her dam failed to win in three starts at two, and she didn't become a stakes winner until she was four, when she also placed in the Gl Apple Blossom. She won two more black-type races at five, when she again placed in the Apple Blossom.

Rich Strike is the 10th Derby winner bred by Calumet, but the first for the farm's current ownership. Like Secret Oath, Rich Strike is out of a stakes-winning mare – Canadian Classic and Graded stakes winner Gold Strike, a daughter of Smart Strike. Like the Oaks winner, the Derby winner is inbred on the sire-line cross, in his case quite closely, 3×2, to Smart Strike. The latter, by the way, is also the broodmare sire of Mine That Bird and his half-brother Dullahan, another Donegal runner, who was third in the Derby. Dullahan was sired by the Unbridled's Song stallion Even the Score and was bred similarly to Mine That Bird, as both were 5×3 to Mr. Prospector on the sire-line cross through Unbridled and Smart Strike.

There is precedent for the close inbreeding of Rich Strike in other Calumet Derby winners from the past. Iron Liege, for example, was 2×3 to full brothers Bull Dog (Fr) and Sir Gallahad lll (Fr), and Tim Tam was 3×3 to Bull Dog, so perhaps it was a calculated decision to inbreed to Smart Strike so closely in Rich Strike's case. At the least, his dam had to be one of the better mares to visit Keen Ice in his first year at stud.

Calumet had purchased Gold Strike, a champion Canadian 3-year-old filly, for $230,000 in 2015, and at the time she was already the dam of Llanarmon, a Sky Mesa filly who'd won the Gll Natalma S. at two. Llanarmon went on to place in the Woodbine Oaks and also won the Carotene S. at nine furlongs on turf. Gold Strike was herself a Grade lll winner who'd won the Woodbine Oaks and placed in the Queen's Plate against colts over 10 furlongs, which gives Rich Strike plenty of stamina on both sides of the pedigree.

In fact, Rich Strike's pedigree probably contains much more stamina than necessary for the U.S. racing ecosystem, but a confluence of factors in the Derby, including a rapid early pace– the first quarter of :21.78 was faster than the :22.76 set by champion sprinter Jackie's Warrior in the Gl Churchill Downs S.– and an inspired ride helped to showcase it.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Fine Time to Have a Keen Ice Baby

Keen Ice, who has been flying under the radar behind some heavy-hitting first-crop sires, has been non-existent at the 2-year-old sales so far this year, but that's about to change when the Calumet stallion has two juveniles catalogued for the upcoming Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. And the timing couldn't be better following his son Rich Strike's dramatic victory in Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby.

Ron Fein of Superfine Farms and partner Juan Centeno will offer the first colt by Keen Ice to sell at a 2-year-old auction when they send hip 95 through the sales ring in Timonium May 23. The gray colt will be consigned by Centeno's All Dreams Equine.

Fein and Centeno purchased the colt for $17,000 as a weanling at the 2020 Keeneland November sale, but the youngster's appeal wasn't really about his GI Travers S.-winning sire, according to Fein.

“We bought him because of the individual,” Fein recalled Monday. “At that particular time, COVID was in its height, I didn't go to the sale. Juan went to the sale. He looked at the conformation. I worked the book and watched the sale virtually.”

The colt is out of Tap Spin (Arg) (Tapit), a full-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Tapiture, as well as graded winner Rotation and stakes winners Remit and Retap.

“I took a look at the pedigree and I thought was terrific,” Fein said. “Juan liked his conformation and we bought him.”

Fein continued, “We decided instead of selling him as a yearling, we would sell him as a 2-year-old and because of his May birthday, we held off selling him until the Maryland sale.”

Fein and Centeno have already had success selling purchases from that 2020 November sale. The partners purchased a son of Tapwrit for $35,000 as a weanling and resold the colt for $450,000 at last month's OBS Spring sale.

Knowing he had this colt to sell, Fein had been keeping an eye out for other juveniles by Keen Ice to be offered at auction this spring.

“It was just strange that there were no Keen Ices sold,” Fein said. “There weren't any in the earlier sales.”

Asked if he had started to worry about the stallion's commercial appeal, Fein admitted, “You always think about that. But you always look at the individual horse, that's the important thing.”

And Fein is optimistic about the individual he will be offering at the Midlantic sale.

“Absolutely super,” Fein said of how the colt was doing ahead of the sale. “He's got a super head on him. He's got an excellent physical. He seems like he's going to be fast. With his pedigree, I hope that he is. There have been only good things. We are pretty excited about him.”

And the extra buzz of being by a stallion who just sired a Kentucky Derby winner couldn't hurt either.

“I would think it has to help,” Fein said. “I think people should start to look at Keen Ice now. He's a horse that won $3 million, won the Travers. He was a super horse. I have no idea why everybody turned off on him.”

Keen Ice is also represented by a filly in the Midlantic catalogue. Parrish Farms consigns hip 597, a daughter of multiple stakes winner Quality Lass (Exclusive Quality). The juvenile was purchased for $5,000 by Ramiro Salazar, agent, at the 2020 Keeneland November sale. She RNA'd for $29,000 at last year's OBS October Yearling sale.

The under-tack show for the Midlantic sale will be held May 17-19, with sessions beginning daily at 8 a.m. at the Maryland State Fairgrounds. The auction will be held May 23 and May 24. Bidding begins each day at 11 a.m.

The post Fine Time to Have a Keen Ice Baby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Smart Digging Strikes a Rich Seam

Well, if it was hard enough to make sense of his performance, then don't expect things to appear any more conventional when you look at the pedigree of Rich Strike. His grandsire and dam share the same paternity. His mother was discarded a couple of years ago for $1,700; his half-sister was claimed only last month for $5,000; and his sire's only previous stakes winner had emerged in Puerto Rico.

But if communal incredulity over the GI Kentucky Derby must have been flavored with extra piquancy for the breeders of the winner, who lost him to a $30,000 claim at the same track last September, then the bigger picture might yet permit them ample consolation.

Most obviously, albeit in somewhat haphazard fashion, a 10th Derby winner has refreshed the record established by Calumet Farm in its heyday as the premier Classic brand of the Bluegrass and highlights the wholesome aspirations sustaining its regeneration.

Eight Calumet homebreds won the Derby between 1941 and 1968, under Warren Wright, Sr. and then his widow Lucille, but the one subsequent success prior to Saturday had poignantly come in the same year, 1991, that the farm declared bankruptcy–courtesy of Strike the Gold, whose name obtains a curious resonance now that the baton has been seized by Rich Strike.

The Kwiatkowski rescue eventually paved the way in 2012 for Calumet's lease to Brad M. Kelley, who immediately found a horse to condense his priorities–not just for the renewal of the Calumet legacy, but also for a maverick challenge to the short-termism he evidently believes to be undermining the modern American Thoroughbred. Oxbow exhibited a teak constitution in campaigning without pause from October through July, taking in seven states and six different distances. At stud, admittedly, Oxbow struggled for commercial traction, but last year he came up with one of the key Classic protagonists in Hot Rod Charlie, who had changed hands for $17,000 as a short yearling.

Now Calumet has achieved virtually the same thing with Keen Ice. He, too, had to demonstrate rare physical resilience in soaking up four campaigns, the first three for Donegal Racing before Calumet entered partnership. And while his only two wins outside maiden company included one that nobody could sensibly take at face value, when shocking a Triple Crown winner in the GI Travers S., he banked $3.4 million in 24 starts, 15 at Grade I level. Much like his son last Saturday, he was never happier than when able to reel in a hot pace.

The Calumet model will always be too idiosyncratic for many commercial breeders, so presumably a monster opening book of 176 for Keen Ice featured a significant contribution from the farm's home herd. The average achieved by the resulting yearlings fell short of a (rather stiff) opening fee of $20,000 and traffic was quick to slide, through books of 73, 43 and 48. Keen Ice is now down to $7,500, the same as Oxbow, who himself was supported with 187 mares in his fourth book but was down to 15 three years later. Now, for a second year running, an ostensibly “uncommercial” Calumet sire is demanding renewed attention–this time with a Derby winner at the first attempt.

Calumet has more to celebrate than regret, then, despite allowing Rich Strike to slip from their racetrack program. Okay, so nobody should be running a horse under that kind of tag if he is 17 lengths better than the grade. But the team will definitely be hoping that Rich Strike can corroborate his breakout as well as did, say, Mine That Bird (Birdstone) when he proceeded to run Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) to a length in the GI Preakness S.

Keen Ice, after all, is earlier into his career than was Oxbow when Hot Rod Charlie made us ask how much he might owe to sire (his dam having already produced an Eclipse champion). If Keen Ice has really done very little besides this jaw-dropper, then there remains a feasible case for saying that his stock will only just be finding their stride with maturity. He has managed 20 other winners this year already, at a 27% ratio that stands up to the likes of Practical Joke, Connect and Caravaggio among rivals in the intake maintaining a higher fee. And while the Calumet breeding program can hardly match such quantity with seamless quality, it will be reliably oriented towards mares that pack in slow-burning assets of robustness and staying power.

That willingness to play a long game, to remain stubbornly out of step with the fast-buck breeders who mate to sell, not run, is predicated on a faith that the Thoroughbred will ultimately have to adapt to a very different environment: one where trainers must can the pharmaceuticals, and where turf/synthetics are no longer commercially toxic. Kelley and his team, on that basis, will hope someday to do exactly what Keen Ice's son did on Saturday, and catapult from the neglected margins to the heart of the action.

Quite apart from promotion of his sire, then, they have another reason to hope that Rich Strike may have hit a genuine seam of gold–and that's to vindicate the kind of thinking that governs Calumet matings. Because here, too, Rich Strike is not an orthodox project.

True, one of the greatest breeding operations in history recently came up with a European champion with inbreeding of equally daring proximity: Enable (GB) (Nathaniel {GB}) is by a grandson of Sadler's Wells out of one of his daughters. Moreover Juddmonte had previously produced GI Pacific Classic winner Skimming by matching one son of Northern Dancer, Nureyev, with a daughter of another in Lyphard; while their sister matriarchs Viviana and Willstar were by Nureyev out of a daughter of Nijinsky (also, of course, by Northern Dancer). So if duplicating a noble influence as closely as the second and third generations was good enough for Prince Khalid, it should be good enough for the rest of us.

In this instance, Calumet chose to double down on Smart Strike–who gave us the sire of Keen Ice, Curlin, as well as Rich Strike's dam, the accomplished Canadian filly Gold Strike. That was an extremely hygienic choice. Smart Strike has proved a fine sire of sires. The farm's lamented English Channel, in his sphere, absolutely bore comparison with Curlin, while Lookin At Lucky is criminally undervalued as a sire of Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winners now down to just $15,000. But the key to thickening out a pedigree with Smart Strike is surely the depth of his own family, as a half-brother to Dance Smartly (Danzig) out of one of the four champions foaled by one of the great misnomers, No Class (Nodouble).

But that's only the start of the way this pedigree has been carefully inlaid. The success of Smart Strike's sire Mr. Prospector opened unexpected horizons for his only older sibling Search For Gold, a stakes-placed sprinter at two. And though his stud career proved little more than opportunist, Search For Gold resurfaces here as sire of Rich Strike's third dam, Panning For Gold, a minor stakes winner at the old Greenwood Raceway.

Panning For Gold was mated with another forgotten name, Dixieland Brass–a son of Dixieland Band who broke down when odds-on for the Florida Derby and ended up standing in British Columbia for R.J. and Lois Bennett of Flying Horse Farm–who had added her to the home broodmare band a couple of years before his arrival. The resulting filly was unraced, but it was her match with Smart Strike that produced Gold Strike for Harlequin Ranches: champion sophomore filly of Canada, on the strength of her wins in the GIII Selene S. and Woodbine Oaks, and now dam of a Kentucky Derby winner.

All six of Gold Strike's named foals prior to Rich Strike had been fillies, notably GII Natalma S. winner Llanarmon (Sky Mesa). The latter's endeavors ensured that Calumet had to pay $230,000 for Gold Strike, though already 13, when she was offered carrying a sibling to Llanarmon at the Keeneland November Sale of 2015. When she went to the same sale four years later, however, she was picked up for just $1,700 by Tommy Wente of St. Simon Place. At that stage, eight years after foaling Llanarmon, she had been either been fallow or produced unraced foals; Rich Strike himself was listed as an anonymous weanling colt by Keen Ice.

Wente has a remarkable eye for a bargain mare. Incredibly, in fact, Rich Strike only got into the Derby because he had one more qualifying point than Rattle N Roll (Connect)–bred by St. Simon Place after his dam was picked up for $20,000 at the 2016 November Sale. That mare was cashed out for $585,000 in the same ring last November.

As it was, St. Simon was represented in the GI Kentucky Oaks by Hidden Connection (also by Connect), whose dam was a $9,500 steal before similarly making her home run at $450,000 at Fasig-Tipton last fall.

Unfortunately Gold Strike has evidently become a difficult breeder, with no foal since. She is in the best of hands right now, being evaluated for breeding, but obviously the odds are steepening at the age of 20. Regardless of how things play out, hats off to Wente. Anyone can get lucky and do something like that once, but this guy has done it time and again.

One other foal bred during Gold Strike's residence at Calumet did make the track the year after she was culled. My Blonde Mary, a filly by Oxbow who has won three claimers in 29 starts, was hooked for a basement tag at Tampa Bay last month by trainer Douglas Nunn and Winner Circle Stables LLC. Doubtless they had spotted her half-brother grab third in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks just a couple of days previously. Alert business, if so, for another creature of highly volatile value!

The real status of this family, not to mention his own stud prospects, may vary wildly according to what Rich Strike does next. Perhaps it will simply turn out that those Turfway synthetics were not to his taste, and/or that he has reserves of stamina that could only be drawn out, even at 10 furlongs, by the kind of ferocious pace that suited his sire. But if the jury must remain out, equally, on the lessons available in his pedigree, for now we must credit Calumet for achieving something so very conspicuous with such a “striking” blend of genetic flavors.

In addition to the Smart Strike overload, and the mirroring of Mr. Prospector with his brother along the bottom line, we should note extra seams of “ore” from their dam Gold Digger behind Keen Ice himself. His fourth dam, and absolutely pivotal to his appeal, is the Emory Hamilton matriarch Chic Shirine–a daughter of Mr. Prospector.

And actually there's another sliver of Mr P. lurking via the second dam of Awesome Again, damsire of Keen Ice. But the main service of Awesome Again, for those breeding to Keen Ice, is another extremely close reinforcement: his sire Deputy Minister is also responsible for the dam of Curlin. That gives a 3×3 footprint to one of the all-time broodmare sires. Almost as potent in Keen Ice, then, as Smart Strike in Rich Strike. This precious payload of Deputy Minister, combined with that Chic Shirine–Too Chic (Blushing Groom {Fr}) bottom line, will perhaps make Keen Ice especially attractive to anyone who wouldn't mind retaining a filly.

So Rich Strike and his sire each intensify one of the key influences on the modern breed. For both horses, what happened on Saturday may yet turn out to be too good to be true. In view of what Calumet stands for today, however, it would be extremely healthy if each proved able to build on this breakthrough.

You can be sure that some commercial breeders will no more buy into Keen Ice than they did Oxbow, following Hot Rod Charlie. But it's auspicious at least to see people challenged in such similar fashion, two years running. There may not be big bucks at ringside, yet, for the kind of hardiness, stamina and old-fashioned depth of pedigree sought by Calumet for their stallion roster. Perhaps, however, that might gradually begin to change as people see how these attributes, integral to the farm's original glory, remain just what you need for the first Saturday in May and that we will only need more of the same, if we continue cleaning up the game as we must.

Kelley and his team have realized that some of the least fashionable assets of the Thoroughbred are exactly what can make it most sustainable in an uncertain future. This particular Derby winner may or may not prove eligible to change perceptions and it won't necessarily be the Calumet team who find the stallions that ultimately end up doing so. But that won't alter the odds that the eccentricities of today may well become the orthodoxy of tomorrow.

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