Godolphin's Yibir (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), named last year's Eclipse champion turf male off of a fast-finishing score in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf, will make his first Stateside start since that effort as the likely favorite in a six-horse renewal of the 1 3/8-mile GI Man O' War S. Saturday at Belmont.
Showing just a single Group 3 win in his first nine starts in Great Britain, the chestnut gelding had his breakout performance with a victory in the G2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur S. last August at York and validated that run with a convincing success in the local Jockey Club Derby Invitational S. before rallying from 13th to get up by a half-length in the Breeders' Cup. Making his 4-year-old debut in the G1 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic, he closed furiously from last of 15 to just miss, finishing second by a neck. He followed that with a mildly-disappointing runner-up finish as a 1-4 chalk in the G2 Betfair Exchange Jockey Club S. last out Apr. 29 at Newmarket. Regular rider William Buick flies in for the mount.
“We were delighted with his first run back as a 4-year-old in the Sheema Classic. He was a fast-finishing second,” trainer Charlie Appleby told the NYRA notes team. “We know the tracks he loves are the more conventional flat galloping track likes Meydan and Belmont. The American tracks seem to suit him. The race at Newmarket was a prep to come to America. I know he was a beaten favorite on the day, but our European tracks don't seem to suit him so much. We were pleased that we got a run into him and he came out of the race well. I've spoken to the team at Belmont on a daily basis and they're happy with the way the horse has shipped and trained so far.”
Though favored at even-money on the morning line, Yibir has a major rival in Otter Bend Stables' narrow 7-5 second choice Gufo (Declaration of War), who will look to make amends for the worst race of his career behind Yibir in the Breeders' Cup. A hard-fought winner of the GI Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer S. last summer at Saratoga, the chestnut made a huge, early move in the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S. before flattening out to third over this course Oct. 9, and finished out of the trifecta for the only time in his 15-race career thus far when 10th at Del Mar. Removing blinkers for his 5-year-old bow in the GII Pan American S. Apr. 2 at Gulfstream, the Christophe Clement trainee scored an eye-catching two-length triumph, his sixth black-type conquest.
Second that day was Abaan (Will Take Charge), the only other horse in single digits on the morning line. Prior to that run, the Todd Pletcher pupil picked up back-to-back Gulfstream stakes victories in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens S. and 12-furlong GIII W. L. McKnight S. before running fourth at 3-5 with a troubled trip in the GII Mac Diarmida S.
French Group 1 winner Rougir (Fr) (Territories {Ire}), who beat elders to capture the prestigious G1 Prix de l'Opera Longines last fall, will look to give trainer Chad Brown his fourth GIII Beaugay S. in the last five years and record fifth overall as a strong favorite in Saturday's renewal of the 1 1/16-mile turf test at Belmont.
Victress of the G3 Prix de Reservoirs in her 2-year-old finale at Deauville in October of 2020, the chestnut finished off the board in her first three sophomore starts before a trio of agonizingly close finishes, running second by a head in the G3 Prix Chloe, fourth by a neck in the G1 Prix Rothschild and third by a neck in the G2 Prix de la Nonette. Undeterred, bettors made her an 11-5 favorite against 13 rivals in the Prix de l'Opera and Rougir obliged, finally ending up on the right side of a photo and getting up by a nose in the last jump. Shipped to Del Mar in her final start for trainer Cedric Rossi, she was seventh with a troubled trip in the GI Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
“She's been training very well,” Brown told the NYRA notes team. “We took the winter to get her acclimated and such and she's been coming along nicely. We know that she has some good form last year and it looked like maybe she needed a break after a long campaign. We gave her extra time and brought her along slow. Her last string of works have been impressive and she has a nice turn of foot. [The Beaugay] might be a touch short for her, but it's a starting point.”
Should Rougir falter, Brown brings backup in last year's Beaugay runner-up Lemista (Ire) (Raven's Pass). Victress of The Curragh's G2 Kilboy Estate S. at three in 2020, the dark bay came up a half-length short off the bench in the Beaugay, earning a 100 Beyer, but failed to build on that in two more starts as a 4-year-old, checking in last of eight in the GI Diana S. and running a non-threatening third in the GI Beverly D. S.
“This filly has come along well. She got sick on us after the Beverly D.,” Brown said. “When she returned home from Arlington she had to go to the shelf for a while, so we took our time and brought her back and she's another one that's been training well.”
Fringe contenders are headlined by Plum Ali (First Samurai), who goes for her third straight stakes victory. Undefeated in three starts to begin her career, including a score in the local GII Miss Grillo S., the chestnut then went seven starts without a trip to the winner's circl before getting back on track with a tally in the Winter Memories S. in her 3-year-old finale Nov. 14 at Aqueduct. Given the winter off by trainer Christophe Clement, she returned with a half-length triumph in the Big A's Plenty of Grace S. Apr. 16.
Well, I guess it's precisely because the protagonists aren't used to the limelight that everybody has so enjoyed their arrival at center stage. But they have quickly learned that once there, with everyone hanging on your every word, you had better know your script.
In the excitement of his success, under one of the most remarkable rides in GI Kentucky Derby history, connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) told everyone that they had the previous morning been reconciled to instead contesting the GIII Peter Pan S. at Belmont this weekend. But they are now claiming that they were actually targeting the GI Preakness S.–and that spacing out his races was always their priority.
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Their strategies and pretexts for ultimately missing the Preakness are entirely their own business. Nonetheless it's vexing that those who want to spread out the Triple Crown series, having been effectively muted by American Pharoah and Justify, now feel emboldened to put their heads back over the parapet. Colleague Bill Finley masterfully disposed of this myopic and really rather decadent lobby in Friday's edition, and I would merely add that the Rich Strike decision is particularly disappointing in view of the miles he has on the clock. Because however little else he brought to the Derby, he did have more “bottom” (eight starts) than any other runner bar the obvious herbivore Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) (nine).
By modern standards, runner-up Epicenter (Not This Time) had also laid fairly solid foundations, especially compared with the raw Zandon (Upstart) who seemed to hit a wall after the race had set up perfectly. True, he graduated from a race that nowadays serves the prejudices of modern trainers to the extent of granting them an extra week, but remember the GII Louisiana Derby also trades that concession for extra distance. The race produced four of the first six past the post last year, and once again it has proved a major bonus to have run a mile and three-sixteenths before the first Saturday in May.
Rich Strike was nowhere near the Derby's hot pace | Coady
Epicenter's perseverance, after contributing to the pace meltdown, indicates courage as exceptional as talent. Whether he can himself absorb such an exacting effort inside two weeks remains to be seen. Here, after all my complaints about the two-dimensional nature of the modern Derby, was a horse ideally equipped to boss the kind of procession we have seen so often since the points system eliminated sprint speed–only to hit the first pace implosion since Orb in 2013 (paradoxically, the first year of gate points).
Be all that as it may, we can't pretend that Rich Strike would have been an especially obvious fancy had he instead rolled up for the Peter Pan. Just try to restore his spectral presence, from that parallel world he fleetingly inhabited eight days ago, into the field that does assemble at Belmont on Saturday–potentially, in some cases, with a view to instead beating him back at the same track next month. Really, the exercise doesn't feel so different from the moment he suddenly appeared along the rail at Churchill: the ghost runner, the puzzling silks in the post parade, the impostor who seemed merely a ceremonial, three-dimensional representation of the horse scratched by D. Wayne Lukas.
So much for my hunch that the Coach might yet have a say in the Derby, despite having reserved what may yet prove the best sophomore of the crop to the company of her own sex. In the event, it became a tale of two substitutes, his brilliant filly's proxy Ethereal Road (Quality Road) crucially ceding his spot to this interloper.
Nobody in the modern era has put more “bottom” into a horse than Lukas, and the taxing race she endured under a fairly witless ride in that GI Arkansas Derby experiment not only set up Secret Oath (Arrogate) to dominate a vintage field for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks but will also, surely, steel her for her imminent next encounter with colts.
The 2022 Kentucky Derby winner | Coady
The defection from that showdown of a fairytale Derby winner does deprive our sport of an opportunity to redeem much of the public distaste we have collectively invited over the past two or three years. The Preakness had offered to bring together two very different phoenixes: one rising from the pyre of age and fashion, his genius gleaming bright as ever; the other literally from the flames, an inferno having consumed 23 horses in as harrowing a nightmare as any horseman could imagine.
But the Rich Strike team are clearly going to follow their own narrative. Everybody else presumed that he didn't really belong in the Derby; and now they have decided, contrary to the outside consensus, that he doesn't belong in the Preakness. Again, it's their prerogative to do as they please. But the Triple Crown gods had cast them in pretty compelling roles, and I'm not sure anyone should want to start meddling with a plot of such momentum and coherence. They can flatter themselves that he was only primed to seize his moment last weekend because of their own calculation, but they do have to credit somebody up there with an assist.
Everything we do with horses, of course, combines luck as well as judgement. That's certainly true of breeding, and it may be no more than a striking coincidence that both Secret Oath and Rich Strike appear to have hewn their physical competence for the Classics, these most demanding examinations of the adolescent Thoroughbred, from genetic foundations assembled with an exceptional eye on reinforcement.
Secret Oath is pegged down at every corner by the great Aspidistra. Damsire Quiet American is famously inbred as close as 3×2 to Aspidistra's son Dr. Fager, in both cases moreover through a mating with a daughter of another matriarch in Cequillo. Secret Oath's second dam is by Great Above, a son of Aspidistra's Hall of Fame daughter Ta Wee. And Arrogate's grandsire Unbridled also brings in Aspidistra, as fourth dam; besides being (like Quiet American) a son of Fappiano, himself out of a Dr. Fager mare.
As we discussed in Tuesday's edition, Rich Strike's pedigree is also conspicuous for doubling down on venerable influences. His sire is a grandson of his own damsire, Smart Strike, while his third dam is by a full-brother to Smart Strike's sire Mr. Prospector. Keen Ice himself, meanwhile, duplicates the broodmare sire legend Deputy Minister 3×3. And his fourth dam Chic Shirine is by Mr. Prospector.
Keen Ice at Calumet | Sarah Andrew
Keen Ice's family–tracing to the 1962 Epsom Oaks winner Monade (Fr), imported by King Ranch–was developed through five generations by Emory Hamilton. We would have no Rich Strike, then, without the parallel human and equine dynasties going through her mother Helen Groves, that wonderfully vital connection to the Old West whose unique spark was finally extinguished this week at 94. They simply don't make them like “Helenita” anymore. In fact, I'm not sure they can have done previously, either.
I doubt that the fearless cowgirl would be terribly impressed by anyone turning down the opportunity to emulate Assault, who won the Triple Crown for King Ranch in 1946. She never forgot that Preakness Ball, full of demobbed servicemen and an infectious optimism, as a 19-year-old college student.
Assault, incidentally, won the Dwyer S. two weeks after the Belmont. That was his sixth win in nine weeks. (Nothing compared to Citation, of course, who two years later also landed the Triple Crown in winning 19 of 20 sophomore starts.) Sadly, infertility prevented Assault passing on that constitution, but that's what we're looking for in Triple Crown horses, and that's why it is set up as it is. It's how their predecessors keep the horsemen of today honest.
Last year not one horse lined up for all three legs. That may reflect on modern breeding, or merely the perceptions of modern trainers. Either way, it's obvious what needs reform–and, even more obviously, it isn't the Triple Crown.
I suppose it wasn't a complete surprise that the connections of Rich Strike (Keen Ice) announced Thursday that their GI Kentucky Derby winner will not run in the GI Preakness S. and will instead point for the GI Belmont S., forgoing any chance he might have had to win the Triple Crown. Owners and trainers have grown so frightened by the idea of running their horses back on two-weeks' rest that something like this was inevitable.
So this year's Preakness, missing the feel-good 80-1 winner of the Derby will not be as good as it could have been. Does that mean it's time to change the structure of the Triple Crown and put more time between the Derby and the Preakness? No.
By all accounts, Rich Strike is in the best form of his life and came out of the Derby in good order. But that wasn't good enough for owner Rick Dawson and trainer Eric Reed.
The last Derby winner to skip the Preakness was, actually, last year's winner Mandaloun (Into Mischief). But he wasn't declared the winner of the Derby until well after the race, when Medina Spirit (Protonico) was officially disqualified. Before that, there was Country House (Lookin at Lucky), who also picked up the win thanks to a disqualification. But he came out of the Derby with a problem and never raced again. Before that, there was Grindstone in 1996, who suffered an injury and was retired after the Derby. In 1985, Spend a Buck won the Derby and passed on the Preakness to shoot instead for a $2.6 million payday he was eligible for if he were to win the Jersey Derby.
You have to go all the way back to 1982 and Gato Del Sol when a Derby winner passed the Preakness fo no other reason than the connections didn't think running back so quickly was the right move. Gato Del Sol finished second in the Belmont.
I disagree with the decision made by Dawson and Reed. There's no reason why a healthy, fit horse can't run back in two weeks. There's that and they have a chance to make history by winning the Triple Crown. That's not something anyone should just toss away. But I understand where they are coming from. They genuinely believe that they are doing the right thing by the horse and there's never anything wrong with that.
Their horse. Their decision. It happens. Let's move on.
But some aren't willing to do that. Within minutes of the announcement out of Pimlico that Rich Strike would not run in the Preakness, there was the expected hue and cry that it's time to change the Triple Crown. Maybe four weeks between races. Or maybe more. Some even want to change the distances of the races, shorten them and end with the mile-and-a-quarter Belmont S. Call it the Triple Crown Lite.
Coming into the 2015 Triple Crown, the clamor to alter the Triple Crown was at a fever pitch because it had been 37 years since a horse had swept all three races and the pundits were saying winning three very tough Grade I races in a five-week span was impossible. Except it wasn't. American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) proved it could be done. Three years later, Justify (Scat Daddy) did it again. That was two Triple Crown winners over a 4-year span and the “let's change the Triple Crown” crowd went quiet.
The reason why the Triple Crown should never be changed is simple and, I would think, obvious. One of the reasons it is so hard to win is because the spacing of the races does indeed present a huge challenge. But that's exactly the way it should be. This is very hard and that's why it has only been done 13 times and every horse who has pulled it off is, rightly, considered an immortal. Putting more time between races would cheapen the accomplishment and all future Triple Crown winners would deserve to have an asterisk next to their names. That just can't be.
Yes, a Preakness with Rich Strike is a better, more compelling race that one without him. But this year's Preakness has a lot to offer. Trainer Wayne Lukas, who would rather have his right and left arm cut off than skip the Preakness with a Derby winner, has all but taken care of that. The filly Secret Oath (Arrogate) is a terrific story and her quest to pull a Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) and beat the boys in the Preakness makes this a fascinating race. Derby runner-up Epicenter (Not This Time) is coming back for round two and is a very good horse who would have been the favorite whether Rich Strike ran or not.
On Preakness afternoon, Rich Strike will spend his afternoon resting and relaxing in his stall at trainer Eric Reed's Mercury Equine Center. Jockey Sonny Leon will ride a couple of $5,000 claimers at Belterra Park. It's OK. The Triple Crown will be just fine.
