The Sale of the Flightline Share: ‘It Will Be Like Buying a Picasso’

What will the share of Flightline, to be sold Nov. 7 at the Keeneland November sale, go for and what are the factors that will set that price? The TDN reached out to two experts to get their opinions.

Paul Manganaro is a horse owner who frequently buys stallion seasons and shares. He owns shares in 20 horses. His uncle, Anthony Manganaro, is among the owners of Flightline.

TDN: In general, what are the criteria involved when people try to evaluate what a stallion share is worth?

PM: Depending on the farm, people use different math and different equations. But, basically, the simple formula is when you take your stud fee with a first-year stallion you want to get your money out in his first four years. That's very difficult to do, especially with a quality prospect like a Flightline. As is the case with real estate, the good stuff, the top-of-market stuff, you're going to have to pay a premium. There's another formula farms use. Say they figure a stallion will produce 400 live foals in first four years, so whatever that stud fee is times the 400 foals, that's the value of the horse.

TDN: When you buy stallion shares, what are the factors you take into account?

PM: There are several major criteria you have to look at, starting with a horse's pedigree and race record. Then there's his conformation. People want to look at these horses and see how they match up. If they are a good-looking horse you will get more interest than if they are a not a well-conformed horse. Then they look at the syndicate structure. How many shares are there, 40 or 50? You'll get a bigger cut if there are only 40 shares compared to 50 shares. What's very important to most farms and to myself and others is: who are your partners? Are they strong breeders and can they support the horse with good mares? Who is the syndicate manager going to be? Lane's End is a well-established farm, a stallion-making farm. They have a strong clientele, a good advertising program and they price their horses right. So you know he's going to get the best opportunity. He ticks every single box. And like with any other business, it's about supply and demand. If there are five shares available and 200 people want one, then t thenhat drives up the price.

TDN: So, how much do you think the share will sell for?

PM: This such a unique situation. Usually when you go to buy a share a farm will call you up and say we have 40 shares at $300,000 each and do you want one? You evaluate all the criteria and you say yes or no. This is something I've never seen. They are offering one share to the whole wide world and through a bidding process. The market will dictate the price. If he dominates in the Breeders' Cup like he dominated in all his other races it could bring anything. It will be like buying a Picasso. Why is a Picasso worth $80 million or 100 million? It's just paint and oil on canvas. Why would anybody pay $100 million for that? It's because Picasso is famous and if you want one there is a limited supply. If the Flightline share brings $3 million does that mean the horse is worth $3 million times 40? No. Because you're not selling 40 of them, you're selling one. The market will dictate the value. But there will be a premium because we haven't seen a prospect like this in decades. The two horses recently sent to stud that had his charisma are American Pharoah and Justify, but they went to a farm that doesn't syndicate horses to the general public. They are held in house. So this is the rarest of rarest gems.

It's like with anything else. You want to buy a yearling and think the horse is worth $250,000 then two people want the horse and it goes for $600,000. Then that's what the horse is worth, $600,000.  If I think a horse is worth $200,000 and it sells for $500,000 I'm not saying the buyer is stupid. The number becomes $500,000 because that's what someone was willing to pay for it. People see things through different sets of glasses. It's the same with this. Whatever this sells for, that is what it is worth.

TDN: What if he loses the GI Breeders' Cup Classic? How will that affect the price?

PM: There will be an initial shock. But within 48 hours people will remember how special he was. Even the great Zenyatta lost a race. Muhammad Ali lost fights. The Dodgers got knocked out and everyone expected them to win the World Series. It's a horse race and he will be facing the best in the world. I don't think a loss would tarnish his reputation. He has five wins, all of them in tremendous fashion. People will still remember him as one of the most talented horses we've seen in the last 20 years. I don't think it will have any effect because he'll be moving on to a different career.

Fred W. Hertrich III is an owner, breeder and former chairman of the Breeders' Cup. He owns shares in numerous stallions.

TDN: Let's get right to it. What do you think the share in Flightline will sell for?

FH: It's going to bring more money than most people anticipate because of the thrill, the dream, the opportunity. That's what we sell every day in this business. We are all dreamers and this is the ultimate dream. The thrill of the horse and the dream. I am excited about it because it is such a positive thing and is so unique. Most often, with stallion syndications there is language in the agreement in which you must agree to not sell shares or seasons at public auction. They don't want to create a false market, good or bad. That's why this is an opportunity we have not seen before.

No one knows what it is worth until the last person bids, and if they do, they are Houdini . This going to give someone the opportunity to participate with one of the greatest horses we've seen in the last 10 years. If he runs next year, they'll be on the front line as an owner watching him race and there's a chance he could race around the world. How do you put a price on that thrill? It's kind of like when Elon Musk said who wants to bid on a seat to go to the moon? What is it worth? It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for the thrill of being able to do that. The shareholders in the horse have put this opportunity out to the public and somebody is going to buy in and have the thrill of a lifetime. People have asked me what do you think this will bring. No one can predict that.

TDN: Could there be the type of bidding war that send this into the stratosphere?

FH: Absolutely. Maybe there's a wife out there who wants to give this to her husband for their 50th anniversary and can spend whatever she wants to spend to give her husband this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and she's not going to stop until she gets the horse. What would that do to the price?

It's like when I sell a horse. I might think the horse will bring $200,000 and lo and behold nobody bids over $50,000. Then with the next one I think it will also sell for $200,000 and there are two people who really want it and it sells for $700,000. That's because both people really wanted the horse and they bid against one another.

TDN: Have you ever seen anything like this before?

FH: No, there's never been anything like this before. That's why it is so unique. Kudos to the people involved who are doing this. Kudos for them coming up with and how they are promoting it. They are selling the ultimate dream.

Editor's Note: Coolmore purchased Justify for a reported $75 million. Theoretically that would value his shares (even though he was never syndicated) at $1.875 million.

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Amermans Credit Performance to Best Supporting Actors

Most of us, in this business, have experienced times when we would implore Jerry Amerman to leave that flier, promoting a horseracing syndicate, right where her husband John had thrown it–in the wastebasket. Happily, while they have sampled the full spectrum of the Turf's ups and downs in the 35 years since, their sense of fulfilment only continues to grow.

And the sport has itself welcomed corresponding gains from their presence: John's judgement, seasoned by a stellar business career, has been drafted by numerous regulatory and benevolent bodies; Jerry's love of animals, besides prompting service of her own, has forged a special place in the community of horsemen; and now, in an unexpected sequel, they find themselves creating a living legacy in a young stallion with the potential to seize an important moment in the evolution of American grass racing.

But first let's go back to that wastebasket. It wasn't their first mailshot from Barry Irwin at Clover Racing and John, wearily going through the post after another long day at work, had promptly disposed of this postcard the same way.

“More junk mail,” he said.

“Wait a minute,” said Jerry, fishing it out again. “It says: 'You too can own a Thoroughbred racehorse.' Isn't that what we're always talking about doing?”

Well, yes it was. So they dipped their toes. A couple of their early experiments never got anywhere, and the first to do so had to be retired after winning her graded stakes debut. But they were impressed with the way the syndicate was run and stayed aboard as it evolved into Team Valor–where they would enjoy an especially thrilling ride with that tireless globetrotter Star of Cozzene (Cozzene).

“You know, the camaraderie with the other people in the syndicate was great,” John reflects. “But most importantly, we learned a lot. If you're just getting into horseracing, a syndicate is a great way to start; a great learning exp

erience.”

By the time Star of Cozzene was sold to Japan, John was approaching the end of a spectacular stint as CEO of Mattel. When he took the helm in 1987, Barbie and her friends were in big trouble: the company had just soaked up a loss of $113 million. As early as 1990, John had turned things round for a record $91-million profit. In between, unsurprisingly to those in our industry who have since come to appreciate his affability and teamwork, he had prioritized morale at workshop level. He became a familiar daily presence around headquarters: eating in the cafeteria, encouraging questions, expanding horizons.

John Amerman at Santa Anita last year | Benoit

John stood down as CEO in 1997, having radically expanded international trade, and in the preceding couple of years he and Jerry had resolved to branch out into their own racing stable. Asked whether he adapted any lessons from his Mattel experience to this new enterprise, John doesn't hesitate.

“Good people,” he says. “If I think back to my days at Mattel, we had terrific people. And horseracing is a complicated sport. It's very spread out. You really have to rely on others, to find the right mix. If you have good people working on your behalf, it makes things a lot simpler. If you're trying to do these things without knowing who the good people are, and knowing their backgrounds, then it just becomes so much harder for the horse. And all the way through we've been very blessed by having excellent support people.”

Take, for instance, bloodstock agent Bob Feld. They had observed his expertise with the syndicates, and he was duly enlisted to help lay foundations for their stable. One inspired early find was GI Hollywood Futurity winner Siphonic (Siphon {Brz}), whose loss to a heart attack was a harrowing moment for the Amermans. But there was a happier sequel for another Grade I winner acquired by Feld as a yearling, Balance (Thunder Gulch), whose A.P. Indy colt made $4.2 million as a yearling after her half-sister proved to be none other than Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

“I still think Siphonic was probably the best we ever had,” Jerry says. “What happened to him was one of the most painful things that we have experienced. But Bob has been invaluable. We've been buying horses together a long time, since the very beginning, really. Frankly, I tend to look at the whole horse and, if the whole picture looks good to me, I'll say 'yea'. But Bob will say, 'No, wait, there's a little problem here.'”

Balance | Sarah Andrew

Jerry's own eye for a horse, and curiosity as a breeder, was first stimulated by German Shepherds.

“At times I've had as many as four of those dogs in my house!” she says. “And several have been champions. And I tell you, it's been a great help watching horses. Because if you know Shepherds, movement is the big thing: their trot is incredible. And I've found that sharpens your eye for looking at how horses move, too.”

That was evidently one key to Jerry's warm relationship with an equally passionate dog owner, in his case Australian Shepherds. Because the surest way for any human being to get on the same wavelength as the late Bobby Frankel was to share his devotion to animals.

“I think Bobby liked us not because of me, but because of Jerry!” says John with a chuckle. “She just loves horses, so did he, and they just got along so well. Bobby took us to great heights. I think we've had close to 30 Grade I wins and Bobby was involved with so many of them. Just an amazing horseman. I remember one time on the backstretch Bobby was talking to me and, without even turning his head, just out of the side of his eye, he was able to call out to his assistant, 'Hey, Humberto, that horse is off in the back!'”

John will always remember Frankel calling to ask: “Would you like to buy a Grade I horse?”

“Well, sure.”

“There's only one catch. She's in Australia.”

“Well,” John said. “I guess we've got planes now.”

And that turned out to be their first elite runner: triple Grade I winner Happyanunoit (NZ) (Yachtie {Aus}). But the introduction for which the Amermans will always be most grateful was to Mill Ridge: initially to the late Alice Chandler and subsequently to her esteemed son and grandson, Headley and Price Bell. This was in 1998, still early days for their stable, and began with a partnership in a Gone West colt that had lacked commercial size.

“Bobby said, 'You need to go and talk to Alice Chandler,'” Jerry recalls. “Of course we knew about her, we'd bought yearlings from Mill Ridge, so we went and introduced ourselves. And it turned out she had this yearling, as she said: 'I just can't throw him to the wolves at the sale.' I said, 'Of course you can't.'

“So we went halves on that colt, who didn't do anything but bring us together. Which was so wonderful for us, because there was nobody like Alice. She should be everybody's hero. I admired her tremendously. And now I feel I have family in Kentucky: Alice was a terrible loss but Headley and Price are terrific, and it's so nice that Oscar can stand at the same farm where he was born.”

Ah yes: Oscar! Their premier racetrack earner, with nearly $2.5 million, Oscar Performance was homebred from Devine Actress (Theatrical {Ire}), who had been acquired after winning a maiden for another owner in the Dave Hofmans barn.

Oscar Performance (blaze) heads for home in the Woodbine Mile | Michael Burns

Headley and Price have now launched him as a stallion at a critical moment for turf breeding in the Bluegrass, following the loss of his own sire Kitten's Joy and also English Channel. Their farm long had international influence as home to Gone West and Diesis (GB), and the way Oscar Performance has started–with four graded-stakes performers already, from 11 first-crop winners to date–is highly auspicious, given how he continued to thrive after winning at the Breeders' Cup as a juvenile.

“Oscar has been pretty precocious, with winners spread all over the place,” John remarks. “But we were very proud, when he was running, that he could win Grade Is at two, three and four. Though from my perspective the best race he ever ran was the [GIII] Poker, where he tied the world record for a mile in 1:31.23. He just blew them away. He was a tremendous horse, and now he's proving it as a stallion as well.

“Full credit to Mill Ridge. They hadn't had a stallion for a few years so we're just very pleased with what has happened. He's really prospered and it's been such fun, this late summer and fall, watching all the Oscar babies run. I don't think we ever thought having a stallion could be this exciting, but it's terrific. It's almost like they're your own, when you're watching them. And we're looking forward to the Breeders' Cup because, knock wood, we think he's going to have quite a few in the turf races.”

Coffee Clique | Horsephotos

Needless to say, the Amermans have supported the horse with their own mares, where compatible. Developing their own families has been one of the joys of their program, and the stock nowadays grazing Mill Ridge include fourth generation foals tracing to Society Dream (Fr) (Arakad {Fr}), imported by Neil Drysdale to win them a stake in California. Her daughter Miss Chapin (Royal Academy) was a sparkling winner on her only start for Frankel and, though now 21, has delivered consecutive sons for Oscar Performance. Previously Miss Chapin had produced millionaire Coffee Clique (Medaglia d'Oro), winner of the GI Just a Game S.; while another daughter, graded stakes-placed Royal Fury (Langfuhr), now has her first foal up and running in Furiously, a son of Oscar Performance who recently broke his maiden for Graham Motion.

Coffee Clique was actually culled at the Keeneland November Sale last year, in one of those disciplined decisions required of every elite program. The Amermans try to keep the broodmare band to around 15, and everyone knows that sales are essential to each new cycle–as, for instance, when shock GI Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Adoration (Honor Grades) was cashed in to Demi O'Byrne for $3.1 million at the equivalent auction in 2007.

This time round their star offering is imported GII Edgewood S. winner Gift List (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}).

“We're always interested in mares and fillies from Europe, as we feel there are good opportunities for racing and a residual value, too,” John explains. “And it has turned out that way with Gift List. We looked at her races in Britain and I thought she showed a tremendous kick. So we brought her over and she ran second in the [GII] Appalachian S. and then won the Grade II at Churchill by four and a half. We were on top of the world, to see her do that against horses like Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}). Unfortunately she then got a chip, and didn't really return as well as we thought she might, but she's obviously very talented.”

Gift List | Coady

“It's pretty hard to let any mare go, when you have a stallion like Oscar,” admits Jerry. “But I do know that sometimes you have to.”

After many decades of practice, the Amermans have learned to trust each other's judgement: inevitably there are times when one spouse has to proceed with a purchase even when the other is not available to sign it off. But that's where the reliable caliber of their counsel is so crucial: whether Headley and Price Bell, or Bob Feld, or trainers like Brian Lynch, who handled Oscar Performance so well; or their valued pre-trainer in Ocala, Barry Berkelhammer.

And, with a profound sense of gratitude for their Turf adventure, both Amermans have reciprocated with their own experience and judgement. John has been on many boards, including as a steward of The Jockey Club, and especially enjoyed seven years with the American Graded Stakes Committee; while Jerry served on the University of Kentucky Gluck Equine Research Foundation. And then there's Peacefield Farm, their aptly named rehab sanctuary at Temecula, California, for racetrack warriors that require patching up.

“The last few years we had Beholder (Henny Hughes) here, and Ce Ce (Elusive Quality), and United (Giant's Causeway),” John says. “Many good horses that have been banged up a little bit have come here before going back to the track and excelling, so we're proud of that.”

It tells you everything that the race John singles out as his highlight, with Oscar Performance, was one he couldn't even bring himself to watch.

“I stood behind him,” Jerry remembers with a laugh. “And had to tell him what was happening.”

“But that's it, you get so involved,” John replies. “It's such an incredible sport. The lows are not fun, but the highs are so high. We got involved when I was just about to retire: after working for many years, I thought, 'Well, now I'm going to sit back and rest.' I soon discovered that running a business had been easy. It was horseracing that was really difficult. But it's been a very gratifying experience, and a very rewarding one. We just feel blessed. I'm so pleased that Jerry took that card back out of the wastebasket.”

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Appleby Aiming To Outstrip Last Year’s Breeders’ Cup Hat-Trick

NEWMARKET, UK–The Breeders' Cup has special resonance for Charlie Appleby, who trained his first Grade I winner at the championships not four months into his tenure as trainer for Godolphin back in 2013.

That important first milestone was provided by Darley homebred Outstrip (GB) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) in the Juvenile Turf, and if the American race fans didn't pay much attention to Appleby that day, they do now, for it was a win which set the tone for the years to follow, not just at the Breeders' Cup, but in top-level races in North America generally. Rarely does an Appleby runner under-perform when sent stateside, and more often than not they will return with another trophy to add to the overflowing sideboards in the trainer's office at Moulton Paddocks in Newmarket. 

Behind his desk, neatly spaced, are three matching trophies from Del Mar last year, when Appleby and his newly-crowned champion jockey for 2022, William Buick, took Del Mar by storm. As important as those victories were for the racing stable, the icing on the cake for Sheikh Mohammed's vast breeding operation was the fact that Yibir (GB), Space Blues (Ire) and Modern Games (Ire) are all homebred sons of Darley's flagship stallion, Dubawi (Ire).

“It was a big win,” says Appleby casting his mind back to Outstrip while catching up with some Australian racing on TV before heading out to oversee his first lot. “And it was one of those very surreal moments. To stand at Santa Anita with that backdrop and watching your first Grade 1 winner go by the line…”

He tails off, momentarily reliving a significant moment in his own career, which has gone from strength to strength in subsequent seasons to see him crowned champion trainer in Britain last year for the first time. It is a title he is odds-on to retain as 2022 draws to a close.

“Look, I'd been in the operation for a long time before that, so you always know what these moments mean, but when you're holding that trophy, and my name was next to it, that does really give you an amazing feeling, and a feeling that you want more,” he adds.

“So the Breeders' Cup always been a meeting that we've campaigned. I'm not saying we've campaigned hard, but I feel that we've always tried to find the right horses to be the most competitive anyway. And thankfully, it's so far been a lucky hunting ground.”

In 2017 came the turn of Wuheida (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the Filly & Mare Turf, while Line Of Duty (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) gave Appleby his second strike in the Juvenile Turf the following year. That race has now gone the trainer's way three times, though last year's success was not without drama. One of his two intended starters in the race, Albahr (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), became fractious in the stalls, forcing him and his stablemate Modern Games to be removed from the gates. In a tumultuous few moments ahead of the start, it initially appeared as if both horses had been scratched from the race, but eventually Modern Games and Buick were reinstated and went on to win, with chaos ensuing for punters. 

“Last year was an amazing year. I felt that we added plenty of drama to the meeting as well,” says Appleby with no little understatement.

“Walking away with three homebred winners and all three of them by Dubawi, I did say to the team there, as much as we say 'well, that was great', we must try harder next year to better that. That might take a little bit of surpassing though, because it was a huge achievement by everybody and we were very proud to walk off the racetrack with what we'd achieved.”

Indeed, it will be hard to top those results at Keeneland this year, but the Appleby team—and the trainer consistently refers to the stable's success as 'we' rather than 'I'—certainly plans to give it a good old rattle.

The one thing I'm confident of with Naval Crown is that he's got gate speed in abundance

The seven runners bound for Kentucky all came through their last piece of fast work on Wednesday in good heart, and will continue with routine canters until shipping on Saturday. With Space Blues now at Kildangan Stud in Ireland and Yibir not travelling, it falls to Modern Games to lead the raiders as he bids to add the Breeders' Cup Mile to his victory last year. In the interim, he became Appleby's third Guineas winner of 2022 when landing the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, following the victory of the late Coreoebus (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the 2000 Guineas and Native Trail (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Modern Games has already made another trip back across the Atlantic this year to win the GI Woodbine Mile. 

“When unfortunately Coroebus didn't turn up for the Sussex Stakes, it was felt that Modern Games was the substitute. But he posted one of the closest finishes to Baaeed when finishing second in the Sussex. He then went to Canada and won very well there,” says Appleby. 

“Then with the QEII on Champions Day, as the rain came down again on the day, I thought 'should we really be running this horse?'. But he was in great order, and as always, he went out on his shield, finishing second in ground that William said he hated from start to finish. 

“It won't be too soft at Keeneland. I imagine Kinross will start favourite, but he's up there and in great order.”

The statuesque Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) is one of two Godolphin runners, along with Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}), being aimed at the Breeders' Cup Turf, claimed last year by Yibir. The four-year-old has had quite the season, with four straight wins culminating in back-to-back Group 1s in Germany over 1m4f.

Appleby says of Rebel's Romance, “He's a past UAE Derby winner and he went out to America on the back end of that winter in Dubai to potentially participate in the Kentucky Derby, but he met with setbacks out there so that didn't materialise. We went back out to Dubai to try and continue his dirt career, which again didn't materialise last winter, but he's been a revelation since we switched him to the turf.

“He stays well, he's got the experience, he's well travelled. I think he's a big player on the night. He'll be joined by Nation's Pride, who's a three-year-old coming into it with a similar profile to Yibir. Obviously they both won the Jockey Club Derby Invitational en route to the Breeders' Cup. But prior to that, Nation's Pride does bring a bit more American experience to the table as well.”

That experience  was provided by the son of Teofilo heading straight from his eighth-place finish at Epsom in the Derby to take second in the GI Belmont Derby before winning the GI Saratoga Derby.

Appleby adds, “Nations Pride will probably go off favourite on the day. William [Buick] will ride him and James [Doyle] will ride Rebel's Romance; they're two live players.”

If he gets a good draw, [Silver Knott] is probably the horse they've all got to beat realistically

The trainer is also double-handed in the Turf Sprint with the Dubawi duo of Naval Crown (GB) and Creative Force (Ire), who finished first and second, a neck separating them, in the G1 Platinum Jubilee S. at Royal Ascot.

“They are both rock solid little horses,” states Appleby. “Creative Force had a break after the summer and we were delighted with his reappearance run on Champions Day, finishing third. He's definitely come forward for that run.

“Naval Crown has got quicker, dare I say it, as the season's gone on. But it hasn't quite gone right for him since the Platinum Jubilee. He ran a good race in the July Cup [when second to Alcohol Free] but was disappointing on very quick ground [at Haydock] and then obviously disappointed on the soft ground on Champions Day. “But the one thing I'm confident of with Naval Crown is that he's got gate speed in abundance. That's what's needed over there, so that's a tick for him. He's got experience and I think he'll enjoy being back on a turning track.”

Appleby also takes aim once more at the Juvenile Turf, this time with the smart Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), who already has a pair of Group 3 wins to his credit, and whose yearling half-brother by Dubawi was recently recruited to the Godolphin team for next year to the tune of 1,500,000gns at Tattersalls. 

“His form has worked out quite well and, dare I say it, he has a profile similar to Outstrip,” notes the trainer. “He's competed at a nice level and a sounder surface will suit him, so hopefully we will get that. If he gets a good draw, he's probably the horse they've all got to beat realistically.”

Completing the septet is the G3 Sirenia S. winner Mischief Magic (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}), who was subsequently fourth to Blackbeard (Ire) in the G1 Middle Park S. and will line up in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. 

“He's got plenty of natural pace and he's definitely a player,” Appleby adds.

“As we all know, you've got to have a lot of luck around there. You've got to travel well, you've got to acclimatise well. And in the shorter-distance events, you have to have a draw. So there's still a few more hurdles to get over, but it's an exciting team to be taking out there.”

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Taking Stock: Freshman Sires Are Flexing

This is somewhat of a watershed year for freshman sires, with six first-crop sires within the top 10 on the list of leading sires of 2-year-olds in North America through Monday. Spendthrift stalwart Into Mischief leads the group (as he has for five of the last seven years), but the same farm's freshman Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) is second, Hill 'n' Dale's Good Magic (Curlin) is third, Coolmore America's Justify (Scat Daddy) is fourth, Hill 'n' Dale's Army Mule (Friesan Fire) is fifth, Three Chimneys's Sharp Azteca (Freud) is seventh, and Airdrie's Girvin (Tale of Ekati), relocated from Florida for the 2023 season, is ninth through Monday.

Also threatening to make the top 10 by year's end are Coolmore America's Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) in 11th, Mill Ridge's Oscar Performance (Kitten's Joy) in 15th, and Lane's End's City of Light (Quality Road) in 16th.

To put this in perspective, consider that among freshman sires in 2014 only Lane's End's Quality Road (seventh) and WinStar's Super Saver (ninth) made the top 10 list; in 2015, Coolmore America's Uncle Mo (first) was the sole first-crop representative; in 2016, there was only Darby Dan's Dialed In (ninth); in 2017, the two freshmen were WinStar's Overanalyze (ninth) and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (10th); in 2018, only Spendthrift's duo of Cross Traffic (fourth) and Goldencents (10th) made the cut; in 2019, Coolmore America's American Pharoah (second), WinStar's Constitution (fourth), and Three Chimneys's Palace Malice (eighth) made it three for the young guns; in 2020, another trio made the list, with Darley's Nyquist (third) topping Sequel/WinStar's Laoban (fifth) and Taylor Made's Not This Time (sixth).

Last year, four freshman sires made the top 10: Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (first), Coolmore America's Practical Joke (third), Lane's End's Connect (fifth), and Coolmore America's Classic Empire (10th).

The trend is obvious, isn't it? More freshman sires are flexing their way into the top 10 this year than before, and it's not like they were uniformly the recipients of the best mares. At an opening stud fee of $150,000, Triple Crown winner Justify was getting that quality of mare, but horses like Girvin, who started off for $7,500 at Ocala Stud in Florida; Sharp Azteca at $10,000; and Army Mule at $10,000 were not.

Bolt d'Oro ($25,000), Good Magic ($35,000), Mendelssohn ($35,000), Oscar Performance ($20,000) and City of Light ($35,000) were priced to compete with one another in 2019, but they were cheaper than a number of proven sires not in the top 20 to date, such as Tapit ($225,000), Speightstown ($80,000), More Than Ready ($80,000), Ghostzapper ($85,000), Candy Ride (Arg) ($80,000), Curlin ($175,000), and Quality Road ($150,000), to name a few.

The five Breeders' Cup juvenile races will play a pivotal role in deciding where these freshmen end up when all is said and done, but several have live contenders, including the three just outside the top 10.

For first-crop sire watchers, it's going to be an interesting Breeders' Cup.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Among freshmen, Good Magic, a champion 2-year-old, holds a strong pair for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Breeders' Cup Challenge winner Blazing Sevens, who won the Gl Champagne S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, and Curly Jack, winner of the Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill. So far, Good Magic is the sire of 17 winners and three black-type winners–each of them at graded level. Only Justify has as many graded/group winners, but no freshman except for Good Magic has sired a Grade l winner so far.

Justify, who didn't race at two, has a contender in Verifying, who was second to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne, and he leads all freshman sires with four black-type winners. He's represented by 20 winners overall.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

City of Light has a good chance in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with Chop Chop, who lost the Gl Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland by a nose. She's one of three black-type winners for City of Light from eight winners so far.

Good Magic's Gll Sorrento S. winner at Del Mar, Vegas Magic, was most recently fourth in the Gl Del Mar Debutante, but she has points and has been training forwardly.

Justify's Just Cindy, winner of the Glll Schuylerville S. at Saratoga in July, has since been defeated in both the Gl Spinaway at Saratoga and the Alcibiades, but his daughter Justique, most recently third in the Gll Chandelier S. at Santa Anita, may be a possibility for the race.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Mendelssohn's Delight won the Gll J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, by five lengths with her ears pricked and looks a strong contender for the North American contingent. She's her sire's lone black-type winner from 17 winners overall.

Oscar Performance's G Laurie has points for the race as well. She was third in the Gl Natalma S. at Woodbine with a troubled trip and is one of 11 winners for Oscar Performance, who is represented by one black-type winner to date–the Grade ll-winning colt Andthewinneris.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Andthewinneris won the Gll Bourbon S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, leading a one-two finish for Oscar Performance with Deer District in second. Not only that, Oscar Performance also has Lachaise, who was third in the Gll Pilgrim S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, with points for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Bolt d'Oro also has a couple of contenders. His Major Dude won the aforementioned Pilgrim, a Challenge race, and Boppy O won the Glll With Anticipation S. at Saratoga. They are two of four black-type winners for Bolt d'Oro, who is represented by 19 winners.

City of Light's Battle of Normandy, second in the With Anticipation, also has points for the race, as does freshman sire Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) with I'm Very Busy, second in the Pilgrim. Cloud Computing doesn't have a black-type winner yet, but he's represented by eight winners.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Sharp Azteca's undefeated Iowa-bred Tyler's Tribe has been penciled in for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's never raced over turf, but he's registered some sparkling Beyer Speed Figures in dirt sprints, and his sire has been represented by some turf winners. Tyler's Tribe is one of three black-type winners for Sharp Azteca, who has 23 winners. One of them is Sharp Aza Tack, who won the Listed Tyro S. at Monmouth over five furlongs on turf by 7 1/4 lengths, and he could be a possibility for this race as well. He last worked five furlongs over Keeneland's all-weather training track in 1:00.20 Saturday.

City of Light's Gaslight Dancer, who was second by a neck in the six-furlong Glll Futurity S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct on turf, also has points for the race.

A Takeaway

The freshman sires competing to make this list are doing so not only against others with first crops, but also against established sires. They are also fighting to make themselves relevant for next year, because in the commercial marketplace that now exists, a poor showing this year will mean fewer mares to cover next spring. It's paramount, therefore, that they get some graded winners or a Grade l winner among their first 2-year-olds, and it's for this reason that stud farms front load their books as much as they can with more quality than most will see again unless they are successful.

One result of this is that a stallion's second, third and fourth books usually tend to yield less quality than the first, and yearling buyers, aware of this phenomenon, tend to pay more for first-crop yearlings.

Moreover, even those stallions that end up in the top 10 this year aren't necessarily guaranteed to succeed, unless their first 3-year-olds continue to win next year. Note that in 2017, Overanalyze was ninth on this list but is no longer in Kentucky, while Violence, who was 10th the same year, has continued to make a mark and is represented by Forte, the leading 2-year-old in the East this year.

Some excellent stallions have also emerged from a prominent spot as freshmen on this list over the years. In 2014, it was Quality Road; in 2015, Uncle Mo; in 2019, American Pharoah and Constitution; in 2020, Not This Time; and last year, Gun Runner.

   Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Freshman Sires Are Flexing appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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