Tag: Shared News

Ivar All Set for Next Chapter in Argentina

Argentinian champion and U.S. Grade I winner Ivar (Brz) (Agnes Gold {Jpn}) is preparing for his Southern Hemisphere homecoming next month, when he will take up stud duty at Haras Carampangue in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The 7-year-old, who was campaigned by Kentucky-based Bonne Chance Farm and its South American partner Stud RDI, began quarantine shortly after his second-place finish in the GI Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational S. and will depart for his new home at the end of April, leaving him plenty of time to adapt to his second career before the breeding season begins in August.

While the Southern Hemisphere breeding season is still months away, breeders in Argentina are already eager to send their mares to millionaire Ivar. Bonne Chance Farm CEO Alberto Figueiredo estimated that the new stallion will breed around 140 mares in his first season.

“All the good breeders and important names in the industry in Argentina are interested,” Figueiredo said. “There is general excitement about the horse. When you are in the stallion business, you have to pray that everything keeps going as you hope, but at least we are providing him with the best support he can have.”

Ivar's breeder and co-owner Stud Rio Dois Irmaos (Stud RDI) has retained a 55% ownership share in the stallion, but the syndicate also includes Haras Carampangue–the farm where he will stand–as well as Haras Abolengo, Gran Muneca, San Benito, La Nora and Santa Maria de Araras.

Haras Carampangue is home to four other stallions including 2013 GI Frank E. Kilroe Mile S. winner Suggestive Boy (Easing Along) and 2013 GI Hollywood Derby victor Seek Again (Speightstown).

Argentinian breeders are already more than familiar with Ivar from his undefeated 2-year-old season there in 2019, where he claimed two Group 1 victories and was named champion 2-year-old colt before shipping to the U.S. Under the tutelage of Paulo Lobo, Ivar was a winner in his second start in North America and then claimed the GI Turf Mile S. at Keeneland four months later. He ran third the following season in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile and last year, won the Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial S. and placed in two additional Grade I competitions.

Following his second-place finish in the GI Pegasus Turf in January, the decision was made for Ivar to retire. Figueiredo said that, had the horse won the Pegasus, they might have considered a trip to the Saudi Cup or keeping him in training for one last Keeneland spring meet, but ultimately they chose to give Ivar plenty of time to get through quarantine and let down before the fall breeding season.

Ivar wins the 2020 GI Turf Mile S. at Keeneland | Coady

“He ran in 11 Grade I races in his career and was so competitive, so we needed to look toward his second career,” he explained. “Since his first race in Argentina, he showed that he had a ton of potential and that he was a freak. He was a different horse. He won on the dirt and the turf and he ran until he was a 6-year-old, so he showed versatility, durability and soundness. He ran in three Breeders' Cups in a row. He was a tough boy.”

Figueiredo said that a stud fee is not yet set for Ivar's first year, but noted that he believes there is a good space in the Argentinian market for a stallion with his credentials. Ivar's sire Agnes Gold, a son of Sunday Silence who stood in Japan and Florida before making his mark in Brazil as a three-time leading sire, passed away in 2019.

Ivar was one of the first top-level performers to bring attention to Bonne Chance Farm, which is located off Pisgah Pike in Versailles and was founded by Brazilian businessman Gilberto Sayao Da Silva. Silva is a partner in Stud RDI, a breeding and racing operation established in 2008 with locations in Brazil and Argentina. In 2015, he launched Bonne Chance as his own boutique commercial farm in Kentucky.

Bonne Chance Bloodstock Manager Leah Alessandroni spoke on the significance of Ivar carrying the farm's silks to Grade I success so soon after the operation was off its feet.

“To have a horse like Ivar come up here and do what he did, holding his own against some of the best in the world on the turf and really showing up at the biggest stage every time, it's kind of hard to quantify what that means for a young organization like us. It's definitely something that we're thankful for every day and the significance is not lost on us.”

Of course Ivar is not the only success story of South American-breds performing at the top of the game in the U.S. for the Bonne Chance and Stud RDI partnership. Top performers include In Love (Brz), a gelding son of Agnes Gold who followed Ivar to victory in the GI Keeneland Turf Mile S. in 2021, and Imperador (Arg) (Treasure Beach {GB}), winner of the 2021 GII Calumet Turf Cup S. Now back at Stud RDI, Imperador bred over 80 mares in his first book and is expecting his first foals to hit the ground this year.

“There is a pipeline of these outstanding racehorses coming from the programs in Brazil and Argentina,” Alessandroni said of the Stud RDI operation. “The program that they've built there is so underappreciated on a global scale. When you look at the numbers and what they've done in South America with groups of horses that arguably aren't as respected as much as they should be, they have kind of forced people to look at the South American product and respect it.”

“To have even a little bit of that influence through Bonne Chance is awesome,” she continued. “I feel like we're sleeping on a giant because I'm so excited to see the future for Ivar as a stallion, but also for the future of the partnership of Stud RDI and Bonne Chance.”


At Bonne Chance, Ivar's dam May Be Now (Smart Strike) is creating her own pipeline of future broodmares for the Kentucky operation. Her 2-year-old Open Heart, a May-foaled daughter of Yoshida, was retained by the farm and is in the early stages of training under Paulo Lobo.

This year she produced a filly by Uncle Mo. Alessandroni said that they will take a few months to let the Mar. 11-foaled filly develop before deciding if she would be pointed toward the racetrack or the sales ring.

“She definitely favors Uncle Mo, which is one of the reasons why we bred the mare to him because we were looking for that type. She's a good mover out in the field and is a very quality filly. We're really excited about her.”

May Be Now was acquired as a yearling by Stud RDI and was a Group 2 winner in Brazil. She spent her first few years as a broodmare there before returning to the U.S. shortly after producing Ivar. She was sold in foal to Hard Spun in 2017, but was bought back by Bonne Chance as Ivar was making a name for himself.

In a few years, the team at Bonne Chance hopes to be represented by sons and daughters of Ivar. Because Southern Hemisphere horses are at a disadvantage early in their racing career as they are born in the later months of the year, Figueiredo said that Stud RDI's Ivar babies will likely race as 2-year-olds in Argentina and those that show promise will ship to the U.S. after their juvenile season.

“We would be really excited by that,” Figueiredo said enthusiastically.

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NYTB Announces NY-Bred Championship Nominations

New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. (NYTB) announced the nominees for the New York-bred divisional champions of 2022. A panel of New York Turf writers, broadcasters, handicappers, racing analysts and photographers will vote on the winners of each division and the 2022 New York-bred Horse of the Year.

The 2022 New York-bred divisional champions and New York-bred Horse of the Year will be announced at the NYTB Awards Dinner sponsored by the New York Thoroughbred Breeding & Development Fund at 7 p.m. Monday, May 8 at Saratoga National Golf Club in Saratoga Springs.

New York riding legend and NYRA TV personality Richard Migliore will again host the Awards Dinner. Tickets are available – $150 for NYTB members and $175 for non-members – for purchase at www.nytbreeders.org/events or by calling the NYTB Office at (518) 587-0777.

Also, to be honored at the Awards Dinner with 2022 awards will be Broodmare of the Year, Champion Steeplechaser, Trainer, Champion Jockey and Outstanding Breeder.

A list of the 2022 New York-bred divisional championship nominees by category follows.

 

Champion 2-Year-Old Male: Acoustic Ave, Andiamo a Firenze, Arctic Arrogance, Vacation Dance.

 

Champion 2-Year-Old Filly: Gambling Girl, Les Bon Temps, Stonewall Star, You're My Girl.

 

Champion 3-Year-Old Male: Barese, Rotknee, Un Ojo, Run Curtis Run.

 

Champion 3-Year-Old Filly: Fingal's Cave, Spendarella, Sterling Silver, Venti Valentine.

 

Champion Older Dirt Male: Americanrevolution, Bankit, Dr. Blute, Wudda U Think Now.

 

Champion Older Dirt Female: Bank Sting, Betsy Blue, Kept Waiting, Make Mischief.

 

Champion Turf Male: City Man, Dancing Buck, Red Knight, Somelikeithotbrown.

 

Champion Turf Female: Dream Central, Robin Sparkles, Runaway Rumour, Spendarella.

 

Champion Male Sprinter: Dancing Buck, My Boy Tate, Thin White Duke, Wudda U Think Now.

 

Champion Female Sprinter: Bank Sting, Betsy Blue, Robin Sparkles, Sterling Silver

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The Land of the Setting Sun?

It felt like a literal solstice, a moment marking our transition to a different phase in the alignment of the Thoroughbred firmament. Because the meteoric performance of Equinox (Jpn) in Dubai on Saturday night, as highlight of another momentous evening for Japan, left rival breeders everywhere speechless. Perhaps, they wondered next morning, this was what was meant by a Sunday silence.

There are so many lessons in Japan's accession as a dominant influence on the 21st Century Thoroughbred, a trend that even the most obtuse and parochial of us cannot fail to observe, that it's difficult to know where to start.

When, for instance, will those industries clinging to a historic presumption of superiority–either side of the Atlantic–acknowledge what's happening sufficiently to reverse the traffic and start importing Japanese racehorses to stand on their own farms? Not for a while yet, you suspect, given that you would need to be confident of commercial demand to make the necessary investment viable. And for now it seems an adequate challenge to get traction even for those few representatives of Japanese bloodlines to have at least showcased their wares before a domestic audience.

But it's not as though this latest tour de force–featuring winners of the biggest prize on both surfaces at Meydan, as well as the first four in the G2 UAE Derby–was founded simply in stallion trade. The Japanese have certainly embraced many sires renounced as uncommercial by breeders in Kentucky and Europe. But that investment has been consistent with a holistic strategy, embracing the right mares, the right land, the right horsemanship.

Obviously the Japanese have enjoyed advantages, in terms of colossal gambling and government engagement. But all these unmissable moments of vindication, as in Riyadh last month or at the 2021 Breeders' Cup, have completed patient years of groundwork, during which Japan was sometimes viewed as a convenient, nearly gullible receptacle for the cashing out of unwanted genetic goods.

As commercial breeding elsewhere has become ever more focused on the sales ring, the Japanese meanwhile persevered with a longer game. Selection was predicated on the kind of assets, like stamina and durability, that are treated with something between dread and derision in other markets. But now we see the results.

Certainly nobody can remain deceived that this has all happened because of a single, game-changing roll of the dice on Sunday Silence. And if Japan did not get here overnight, nor can those industries now being challenged expect to retrieve the situation other than by patient increments.

Let's take G1 Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) as a snapshot. He is, admittedly, by a grandson of Sunday Silence. But the dam of Orfevre (Jpn) is by a sire, Mejiro McQueen (Jpn), who not only represents the fourth generation of a sire-line transplanted by the arrival from Europe of Partholon (Ire) in 1963, but also extends an indigenous maternal line through eight generations of Japanese mares to one foaled as long ago as 1909.

Partholon, by the way, ended up as Japan's champion sire on three occasions, having won the Ebor H. at York, over 14 furlongs as a 3-year-old. The die was cast. Because if we're going to give due credit to the bottom line, then here's a question that I should like to ask any American breeder mating a mare this spring.

Say the resulting foal becomes champion sophomore or maybe, instead, he could win the second richest race on the planet. Either would sound pretty good, right? Well, what do the last two horses to reach this pinnacle of dirt racing, Epicenter (Not This Time) and Ushba Tesoro, have in common?

The answer is that the third dam of both is a daughter of Ela-Mana-Mou (Ire), one of the most redoubtable stamina influences in the recent history of European grass racing. Ela-Mana-Mou's two best-known sons were Double Trigger (Ire), who swept the Cup races in Britain including the G1 Ascot Gold Cup at 20 furlongs, and Snurge (Ire), whose Classic success came over 14 in the G1 St Leger.

Now, I'm not suggesting for a moment that this single, attenuating strand specifically accounts for the excellence of Epicenter and Ushba Tesoro over two turns of dirt. But what I do believe is that this forgotten horse–virtually unknown in Kentucky, presumably, beyond its substantial community of emigre horsemen of a certain age–is typical of the overall “branding” today enabling Japanese runners to carry their speed so unanswerably.

Look at Panthalassa (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}), who switched from turf to win the world's richest prize in Riyadh last month. Hardly anything in his pedigree indicated a likely proficiency on dirt, but it is saturated (sprinting sire notwithstanding) with toughness and stamina. His first two dams are by Montjeu (Ire) and High Estate (Ire). One has had a record impact at Epsom, the other was by a Derby winner and sired one himself. The next dam was admittedly by a sprinter, but out of a mare by another undiluted source of staying power in dual Arc winner Alleged.

This kind of thing is not confined to the Japanese, of course. The World Cup runner-up Algiers (Ire) (Shamardal) admittedly represents a versatile sire-line, but there are deep wells of stamina in his pedigree. His dam is by Platini (Ger) (Sumuru {Ger}), a horse that once outstayed even Ela-Mana-Mou's son Snurge. (And Shamardal himself requires us to reflect how his dam's half-brother Street Cry {Ire} became a Classic influence on dirt, as they are out of an G1 Irish Oaks (12f) winner by the ardent stayer Troy {GB}).

Certainly Ushba Tesoro himself is laden with staying influences. His sire Orfevre is a Japanese St Leger winner (15f) by Stay Gold–another son of Sunday Silence who majored in soundness (still showing top-class form at seven) and stamina (stayed two miles). And his dam is by King Kamehameha (Jpn), whose fertility as a source of brilliance was hardly impaired by his Classic success over 12 furlongs. She was out of one of the more accomplished runners (couple of graded stakes wins on turf after export to Bobby Frankel) by Septieme Ciel, a generally disappointing stallion by Seattle Slew. Ela-Mana-Mou then enters the picture as a mate for a daughter of the imported Argentinian sire Pronto (Arg).

We should not be surprised, then, if the Ela-Mana-Mou mare who features as Epicenter's third dam should be out of a daughter of Busted (GB), whose two best sons Bustino (GB) and Mtoto (GB) both sired winners of the G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles. (Nor, if anyone is inclined to complacency in a commercial industry that can produce Flightline, should we neglect that the champion's second dam is by Roberto's son Dynaformer, while his sire's granddam is by Nijinsky).

More predictably, perhaps, similar motifs occur just as prominently behind Equinox, sensational winner of the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. His sire Kitasan Black (Jpn), a grandson of Sunday Silence, twice won a Grade 1 over two miles; while his damsire King Halo (Jpn) (out of a mare by Sunday Silence's sire Halo) is by Dancing Brave, one of the all-time European greats yet soon written off to Japan as a stallion. Equinox's granddam is herself by a rejected Arc winner in Tony Bin (Ire), while the next dam is by a dual winner of the race in Alleged.

We just found Alleged, remember, lurking behind Panthalassa as well. And while his own background–by Hoist The Flag/inbred 3×4 to War Admiral–may take us into the mists of time, it also takes us right to the crux of the matter. Because dirt racing is about carrying speed, and that is itself a form of stamina.

Interestingly Tony Bin also provides the second dam of UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake, who must be getting his stamina from the bottom side as a son of the imported American sprinter Mind Your Biscuits. Derma Sotogake's damsire is Sunday Silence's son Neo Universe, a Japanese Derby winner beaten a length in the 15-furlong St Leger. The way he destroyed his pursuers last Saturday permits no doubt that Derma Sotogake has the maternal wherewithal to carry his sire's speed and–setting aside last year's farcical tactics from the two UAE Derby graduates–nobody should be complacent that the GI Kentucky Derby itself can be secure from Japan's expanding hegemony.

Evidently there is no guarantee that Equinox will be given the chance to slake a rather longer thirst in the Arc, which is a pity given the Longchamp winners seeding his family, not to mention the fact that his own sire contributed two of Japan's serial near-misses in the race.

But just imagine what would happen if the Japanese suddenly felt sorry for the industries they compete with, and donated Equinox to Kentucky or Britain. Would the commercial breeders of the Bluegrass, anxious to catch the eye of an Ocala pinhooker, come flocking? With his background, I doubt it. What, equally, would Nathaniel (Ire) tell Equinox about the kind of harem a proven Classic influence can expect in Britain? (That's the same Nathaniel who added the latest Epsom Derby winner to a resume already including Enable (GB), yet is still only charging £15,000 and increasingly relying on jumps mares).

And there's your answer, really. If we want to recover the ground lost to Japan, then we need to understand just what these rampant Japanese racehorses are digging into: seam after seam of soundness and stamina. Of course they need brilliance too. That's where the whole skill of breeding comes in, maintaining that cutting edge of speed. Yet one after another of these horses have been sired, not by recent imports, but by horses that have been developed in the Japanese program, many of them holding their form year after year, generally on turf and over what many would consider appalling distances.

Yes, we must reiterate the shrewd selection of mare imports over the years. The $750,000 paid for Ushba Tesoro's granddam, for instance, doubtless owed little to her sire Septieme Ciel and rather more to the fact that had managed to add more black-type to the famous Claiborne clan of her fourth dam Bourtai.

But what kind of reception, honestly, would Deep Impact (Jpn) himself have had in Lexington, as a winner over two miles? American breeders didn't want his sire, but did they ever learn that lesson?

At least commercial breeding in Kentucky still aspires to a second turn on the first Saturday in May. But while I'm always recommending dirt sires as a way–and a proven way–to transfer a speed-carrying capacity to European Classic racing, the Japanese are meanwhile reminding us that the reverse also applies: that there's nothing like grass stamina to help keep up the gallop on dirt.

As I acknowledged at the outset, it would be commercially difficult to export an elite runner from Japan to stand in Europe or America. But now that they are taking their excellence onto a global stage, perhaps that kind of gamble may gradually start to inch a little closer.

In the meantime, only a few horses have had the chance to introduce Japanese blood to domestic racing theaters elsewhere. Unsurprisingly, the most promising experiment to date is the work of John Magnier and his partners in Coolmore, who outcrossed one of their many top-class daughters of Galileo (Ire) to Deep Impact (Jpn) and produced Classic winner Saxon Warrior (Ire)–whose debut crop includes GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf scorer Victoria Road (Ire). Saxon Warrior's fee this spring is up to €35,000 from €20,000, and the same operation is now hoping to repeat the process with Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). The strong favorite for the Epsom Derby is similarly out of a high-class Galileo (Ire) mare, and actually won the same juvenile Group 1 as Saxon Warrior last fall.

Not many people, however, have either the resources or the imagination to emulate this kind of thing. As things stand, a Japanese sire-line entered the North American general sires' list in 2022 only at No. 92 through Silent Name (Jpn), who offers Ontario a direct conduit to Sunday Silence. And we do also have Yoshida (Jpn), a grandson of Sunday Silence, about to launch his first juveniles. His Grade I wins on both turf and dirt were due reward for the rare enterprise shown by WinStar in importing a Japanese yearling to race in the U.S.

Sunday Silence's son Hat Trick (Jpn) was a noble earlier experiment, and Gainesway bought into the project after he pulled Group 1-winning juvenile Dabirsim (Fr) out of his hat as a freshman. (The same farm, to its credit, evidently also liked the fact that Karakontie (Jpn) is out of a Sunday Silence mare.)

Unfortunately Hat Trick dwindled to 19 mares at $5,000 in his final spring in Kentucky, before ending his days in Brazil. Dabirsim did meanwhile produce Royal Ascot winner Different League (Fr), an €8,000 weanling who advanced her value two years later to 1,500,000gns. That sum, incidentally, was ventured by another far-sighted Coolmore partnership, co-signed by M.V. Magnier and White Birch Farm.

Obviously it was always unlikely that such rare samples of Japanese blood should happen to prove as potent as the best of their gene pool. But who knows? Perhaps we will gradually learn a little humility. Perhaps we can admit to ourselves that, where Japan has strengthened over the past couple of generations, is precisely where we have allowed things to slide.

As always, there's an ultimate consolation to the way this business functions. But eventually the people with the daring and the imagination to take a harder path, and heeding Japan's example, will be waiting for your horse on the racetrack.

We're all being taught a pretty deafening lesson here. That doesn't mean many people are necessarily going to pay attention, even if the Japanese now plunder the Kentucky Derby itself. But it'll be pretty obvious, in a few years' time, just who was listening, and taking notes, before going away to complete their homework.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

The further 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Forte goes in his sophomore campaign, the more favorably he compares to Nyquist, who was the last winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile (and only the second Juvenile winner ever) to score in the Kentucky Derby. Each was put on a two-prep path at age three, consisting of an early March stakes victory followed by a try in the GI Florida Derby.

Where they differ, though, is in the level of difficulty of their respective Florida Derbies. In 2016, the connections of Nyquist took a gamble by shipping their colt cross-country from his California base to chase a $1-million Florida sales-grad bonus offered by Fasig-Tipton. Despite being the undefeated 2-year-old champ, the 6-5 Nyquist wasn't even favored in the Florida Derby (Mohaymen was at 4-5). But Nyquist wired the field commandingly, cementing favoritism in Louisville.

Forte, by contrast, will race over a Gulfstream surface over which he's already won emphatically, and he will be getting a considerable break in terms of competition. The draw for Saturday's Florida Derby landed him in post 11, but none of the 11 horses entered against him have ever been ranked in TDN's Top 12, and only one has ever won a stakes.

Beyond the obstacle of an outer post in a large field, the race, on paper at least, gives off a “damned if he does, damned if he doesn't” vibe that the champ will be up against.

If Forte trounces the field, it'll be reasoned he was supposed to beat up on such an overmatched crew based on his established gravitas as the divisional kingpin. The tall, lanky stalker has pasted nearly all comers over a six-race career that dates to last May 27 and includes only one forgivable loss in a Saratoga sprint stakes. None of the visual takeaways of his stretch runs offer evidence that he won't be able to handle pressure while negotiating longer distances.

If Forte runs well but narrowly loses, the result will likely elicit a positive-leaning connotation, along the lines that he wasn't fully cranked for the effort with his main goal being four weeks out.

But if Forte finishes off the board with no excuse? Yikes. He'll suddenly be perceived as vulnerable for the first time and the proverbial barn door will be knocked off its hinges by the crush of contenders rushing in to fill the Derby void.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

They don't drape a blanket of roses atop your shoulders on the first Saturday in May for looking like the most improved colt on the Derby contenders list at the end of March. But if they did, Practical Move would be this year's ideal fit.

This son of Practical Joke's progression toward the Apr. 8 GI Santa Anita Derby gives the impression of an ocean wave that did not at first appear menacing when in the distance, but now that it's nearing a crest, look out.

This Tim Yakteen trainee started five times in a four-month span at age two and his form in those races might have been shaded by running into some fairly accomplished foes while encountering repeated trip trouble.

A 10-1 upset in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity closed out this robust-framed colt's juvenile campaign. But Practical Move opened eyes with a 12-point Beyer jump when winning the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 4, uncorking a professional inside run despite enduring early bumping, a rank horse on the clubhouse turn, and a momentum stall on the far bend while jockey Ramon Vazquez patiently waited for an opening.

If you want a Derby horse who rates as “flashy,” look elsewhere. But if you lean toward a level-headed prospect who is quick enough to prowl behind strong fractions while having enough stamina to stick around late, Practical Move just might be your type.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW,4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Friday, breezing a half-mile in :49.82 (11/31) nearly two weeks after closing with a desperate rush to win the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (88 Beyer).

From several perspectives–his dawdling break, the questionable quality of the competition, the four-point Beyer regression off his previous win–the Tampa excursion was not an artistic triumph for Tapit Trice.

Yet considering that this colt overcame self-inflicted trip adversity and closed capably through a final sixteenth clocked in an impressive :6.14, Tapit Trice remains poised to put forth a more polished version of the athletic prowess he displayed in his first three career races. That chance will come in his final Derby tune-up, the Apr. 8 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in both the Tampa and Kentucky Derbies–Street Sense in 2007. Street Sense, like Tapit Trice is being pointed to do, also attempted the Blue Grass S. in the interim. He was second, losing by a nose in a four-horse photo.

With Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) never firing when sixth as the beaten 3-2 favorite in this past Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby, it appears that Tapit Trice is now the best Kentucky Derby shot for jockey Luis Saez.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as a showdown between the Nos. 2 and 4 headliners on this list. While Practical Move brings experience, this son of Candy Ride looms as a speed-centric threat who could have a decided advantage in a short field if the race comes up light on entries.

Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the GII San Felipe S. and he gamely forced the issue on the front end of a high-tempo pace yet still managed to stay on determinedly in the final furlong to hold second even when it was clear that Practical Move had him beat.

In just two lifetime starts, Geaux Rocket Ride has paired 92 and 96 Beyers, and his transition out of a MSW sprint wiring to an off-Lasix stakes route was about as smooth as his connections could have hoped for. Note that the second- and fourth-place runners out of his Jan. 29 victory both came back to win their next starts, lending credibility to that sizzling debut.

Geaux Rocket Ride worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat Sunday at Santa Anita (2/6), after which his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, quipped, “The rockets are ready to fire.”

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm returns to the Top 12 off his runner-up try in the Louisiana Derby and I'm taking an ambitious gamble by leapfrogging him all the way up to No. 5 considering this colt hasn't won a race in nearly nine months.

Last summer, trainer Steve Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy.”

But Asmussen expressed faith that this son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) would “stretch out beautifully” over time. Unfortunately, that didn't happen during his juvenile season, because after a blowout MSW win at the Spa over seven furlongs, Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons. After a second-place effort going a mile in an Oaklawn allowance Feb. 19 for his 2023 debut, he resurfaced at Fair Grounds Saturday.

Trying to chase a lone-speed pacemaker getting away with soft splits, Disarm was at a tactical disadvantage. His trip was further compromised by being caught behind the heels of a stablemate for most of his inside journey, and his stride stalled at several points during the race. Yet he still closed with purpose and earned a 90 Beyer for the effort.

Being up against the grain of a speed-favoring track also hurt his chances in the Louisiana Derby. There were 11 dirt races on the Mar. 25 card at Fair Grounds. Four were won in wire-to-wire fashion, six were won by pace-pressers who raced just off the lead, and one was won by a mid-pack stalker. Closers like Disarm got completely shut out. He'll be a live sleeper at well over 20-1 in Louisville.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate, a $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic, will bear the burden of favoritism in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, and deservedly so.

He's the controlling speed on paper and is exiting a difficult trip in the Feb. 25 GII Rebel S., in which he got bounced around at the break, advanced into contention, then had to check late. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer). Jockey John Velazquez rides back.

A big horse with a long stride, Reincarnate started his career with two turf tries (both seconds). He was then second in his dirt debut, and finally broke through in try number four at Del Mar Nov. 25, after which he took the Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., dueling all the way on the inside and earning a 95 Beyer at somewhat surprising 16-1 odds.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer, so the stamina base is there. The Arkansas Derby will offer a sharper picture of where this colt stands in terms of honing his chief tactical weapon, which is front-end force.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Figuring out whether or not nine-furlong Tapeta form will translate to 10-furlong dirt success is a bit like trying to understand voodoo. But the 101-Beyer win by Two Phil's in Saturday's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks stamps him as an intriguing mid-tier threat on the Derby totem pole, and he has growing appeal as a 4-for-8 closer/stalker whose strengths are versatility and adaptability.

This son of Hard Spun has taken a somewhat unconventional path to Derby relevancy, having started as a 2-year-old at Colonial and Canterbury before breaking through with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill, which came over a sealed and sloppy track.

After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the GII Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a risk by opting for a start over Tapeta at Turfway, over which Two Phil's had never raced.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, jockey Jareth Loveberry rated this colt three wide into the first turn, patiently kept him parked outside while sixth down the backstretch, then let Two Phil's unwind four deep through the far bend, always shadowing the move of the 1.7-1 fave Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro) before reeling in that rival without much of a fight in upper stretch.

True, no one else was firing down the lane to offer a fresh challenge. But Two Phil's finished up respectably under his own power, leaving the impression that he wasn't entirely sapped by the effort.

Two Phil's will train at Rivelli's Hawthorne-based stable, where he will remain under the radar until Derby day gets closer.

8) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

With the calendar on the cusp of flipping into April, Todd Pletcher has emerged as the deepest-stocked Derby trainer, with three colts ranked within the top eight on this list.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns is evolving into a no-nonsense frontrunner who knows his job and gets into gear without drama, having now handled the footing of three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds) and shipping to each track from Pletcher's winter training base at Palm Beach Downs without apparent difficulty.

This Uncle Mo colt was assigned a 95 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby wiring. The win represents a nice progression through only 10 weeks of racing experience. But peering more closely at his  1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles does raise legitimate questions.

That final time is the slowest in four years since the Louisiana Derby got elongated from nine furlongs, and it's nearly a full second off the previous slowest clocking of 1:56.47. Granted, that's only a small sample. But also consider that Kingsbarns was virtually unchallenged through a tepid pace, and the speed-favoring track at Fair Grounds Mar. 25 definitely played to his running style. Both the pace pressure and the tempo will be ratcheted up considerably in the Kentucky Derby.

The Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby will have an indirect impact on Kingsbarns. Flavien Part, who rode this colt for the first time in New Orleans, has a competing call aboard Geaux Rocket Ride in that Santa Anita stakes, meaning he might have to choose between mounts at some point.

9) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

The presence of No. 1-ranked Forte isn't what re-routed Rocket Can from the Florida prep path to Saturday's Arkansas Derby. This Into Mischief gray is owned by North Little Rock's Frank Fletcher, who is seeking his first victory in Oaklawn's premier stakes, a win he covets dearly because of the local connection to his home-state track.

Trainer Bill Mott has no problem accommodating an Oaklawn try by shipping Rocket Can to Hot Springs, and in the grand scheme of things, evading the formidable Forte in the same-day Florida Derby does look like a wise move.

Since stretching out to two turns back on Oct. 30, Rocket Can has finished 1-2-1-2 in four consecutive 1 1/16-miles races, the latter two being Gulfstream stakes.

His route-race Beyers look a little light (78, 82, 82, 91) compared to other Derby aspirants, but this gray has resonated as a “better than what you see on paper” type of prospect, earning style points for reliably pouncing off the far turn and throwing himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns with an underdog flair.

Mott acknowledged after Rocket Can's second-place try behind Forte in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. that this colt got a little too wound up pre-race and was overly keen in the early stages of that race. Seeing how he acts in the post parade and during warmups will be crucial in assessing his chances Saturday.

10) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in
Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One has never won on dirt, hasn't hit the winner's circle in more than six months, and has never been fancied as the favorite in any of his seven lifetime races.

Yet here he is, one prep race from the Derby and pegged at a comparatively lofty No. 10 within the Top 12 while commanding a qualifying spot at No. 16 in the points standings for Derby eligibility. He closed at a respectable 24-1 in the latest version of the Derby Future Wager back on Mar. 12, which might end up representing lower odds than he'll be in the Derby itself on May 6.

The chief reason this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred is so well-regarded this deep into the season has everything to do with his potential upside at longer distances. By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare and with a come-from-behind running style, Red Route One has twice splashed home second at Oaklawn this winter in graded stakes, and in all five of his 1 1/16-miles dirt races since October he's given the appearance that he's just starting to get uncoiled when the finish line is looming.

Red Route One has drawn post 10 for Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

11) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Slip Mahoney's stout Arrogate-over-A.P. Indy pedigree is likely to serve him well when this Brad Cox trainee stretches out to nine furlongs in the Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt was slow from the gate and second best with a big late rush from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

That one-turn mile was Slip Mahoney's first go outside of the maiden ranks and he likely got more out of the experience than it looks on paper.

He breezed a half mile in :48.40 (2/89) Saturday over the Belmont training track with assistant trainer Dustin Dugas up, working in company with a stakes-placed filly.

“The work was great,” said Dugas. “Slip Mahoney was on the inside and it was a really good move from the both of them. They broke off well and galloped out in 1:01, so it was a good gallop out. I was happy with it and both came back really well. He didn't really require much encouraging.”

12) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game's next start remains up in the air as trainer Keith Desormeaux mulls options that include the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S. at nine furlongs, the GIII Lexington S. at 1 1/16 miles one week later, or simply training up to the Kentucky Derby.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride colt earned a 94 Beyer when winning the Rebel S. back on Feb. 25, benefitting from a comfortable, mid-pack trip behind two long-shot speedsters and two favorites who never fired.

Confidence Game, an efficient strider who responds to rousing from his rider, got third run at the tiring leaders off the final turn in the Rebel, then largely avoided a crush of inside traffic with a wide stretch bid that included some outward wandering late.

Although he has seven races of experience (five of them routes), this is a colt I'd like to see in action at nine furlongs before more emphatically getting behind his chances in the Derby.

If he goes straight to Louisville after having been idle for 10 weeks and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, it would be a huge ask, especially considering that Desormeaux acknowledged Confidence Game “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his Rebel score.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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