Artificial Intelligence Deployed in Pedigrees 360 Mating Planning

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are at the forefront of a new pedigree analysis website which has been launched by G1 Goldmine founder Leo Tsatsaronis. The Pedigrees 360 software is intended for use in helping to predict the likely success of matings by focusing on “line-breeding clusters”.

“Using AI and machine learning, the programme has shown a very high degree of accuracy in predicting which pedigree combinations will produce the champions and which will produce the perennial maidens,” said Tsatsaronis.

“Most of the existing mating tools focus on nicks and crosses, which is a simplistic view of how a pedigree pattern influences the class of a horse. Deep line-breeding clusters are the foundation pattern present in the most successful breed-shaping stallions in the past 100 years. Some of the greatest breeding minds in history, such as [Federico] Tesio, the Aga Khan, [Marcel] Boussac, designed their pedigrees to build multiple clusters and multiple layers of key ancestors going back to eight and nine generations.”

He continued, “Most of these great breeders had the ability to 'see' deep line-breeding patterns, and their vision without computers was extraordinary.”

The software design for Pedigrees 360 includes nine-generation pedigrees for thousands of horses across a range of abilities, with the aim of finding the qualities that separate them. Tsatsaronis noted that it's as important to identify which mating patterns are unsuccessful, especially when those patterns involve fashionable pedigrees. He also points to the ability of Pedigrees 360 to identify potential quality horses from matings deemed unfashionable by the commercial marketplace, citing Knicks Go, North America's 2021 Horse Of the Year, as an example of what the software can find. 

“Although the horse is the result of a mating involving a low-fee sire, and he sold for a low price at auction, Pedigrees 360 shows the mating had more potential than conventional wisdom might suggest,” said Tsatsaronis.

“The AI modelling analysed 48 identifiable clusters within nine generations, with clusters being items such as counts of sire duplications, counts of sex-balanced mare duplications at seven, eight, and nine generations, and inbreeding positioning between generations.

“Obviously, there are always going to be horses which belie their pedigree. Some which the programme suggests are going to be outstanding are actually slow, and vice versa, but so far these are proving to be a small percentage and maybe the result of some biomechanical factor rather than pedigree.”

He added, “When most breeders and buyers are assessing a prospective mating or yearling, they take a variety of factors into consideration, including, pedigree, conformation, x-rays and movement. Our programme is just a tool to assist in one of those factors but it is a very powerful tool.”

Hutton Goodman of Mt. Brilliant Farm is among the North American breeders who have signed up to Pedigrees 360. He said, “It's a very interesting tool that we are really starting to lean on, and the great thing about Leo's software is that you know he is going to keep sharpening it and updating it, making it more useful, like he did with G1 Goldmine. We have already started to see some of the great features he is developing to hopefully add, and it is exciting stuff.”

More information on the launch of the new website can be found via www.pedigrees360.com. 

 

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12 Questions: With George Boughey

First job in the Thoroughbred industry?

Working for Tom Goff and Luke Lillingston doing the yearling sales in the USA and UK.

 

Biggest influence on your career?

Hugo Palmer. Working for six seasons from when he had 30 horses to training Classic winners.

 

Favourite racehorse of all time, and why?

It has to be Cachet, beyond my wildest dreams to train a Classic winner in my third season for Highclere.

 

Who will be champion first-season sire in 2023?

He might not have the most winners but I have a handful by Blue Point who are very hard not to like.

 

Greatest race in the world?

The Derby, but I'd love to win a Breeders' Cup or a Cox Plate.

 

If you could be someone else in the industry for a day who would it be, and why?

Aidan O'Brien.

 

Emerging talent in the industry (human)?

Harry Derham (top man who I've sent a horse!) and Connor Planas (joins us after a stint in Dubai).

 

Name a horse TDN should have made a Rising Star, and didn't?

Proverb (Harry Angel) when he won his novice at Hamilton by seven lengths.

 

Under-the-radar stallion?

Mayson.

 

Friday night treat?

Deliveroo.

 

Guilty pleasure outside racing?

Outside of racing?!?!

 

Race I wish I'd been there for…

Gold Trip winning the Melbourne Cup for great friend David Eustace.

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George Stanners Re-Joins Goffs

Goffs has announced that George Stanners has re-joined the company in a client liaison and auctioning role in Ireland and the UK.

Stanners spent 17 years working with Goffs UK before taking up the position as bloodstock manager at Yorton Farm last year. 

He remains a consultant to the leading breeding operation but Goffs chief executive Henry Beeby has described his delight at seeing Stanners return to the company he joined straight out of school. 

Beeby said, “We are delighted George is back with us as he was always a popular and highly effective member of the team.

“His new role will see him engage with vendors and purchasers for all Goffs and Goffs UK sales, inspecting and recruiting for our portfolio of sales in Kildare, Doncaster and our specialist boutique sales at the likes of Aintree, Punchestown and Sandown, and then working with our Purchaser Attraction Teams to promote each catalogue to buyers.

“At the same time he will maintain the superb link with Dave Futter and his team at Yorton as we evolve and develop that mutually beneficial relationship.”

Beeby added: “His presence on the rostrum at every sale in Kildare and Doncaster will only enhance our exceptional panel of auctioneers as he is a world-class operator with a unique and highly effective style.”

Stanners said: “I'm pleased to return to a role with Goffs and be back on the rostrum on a more consistent basis. Being on the ground visiting breeders and trainers is something I have always enjoyed, so I look forward to assisting them both at home and at sales throughout the year.

“Alongside my Goffs commitments, I will continue to work closely with both Yorton and the Potter family as they trade both on and off their farms at Leighton, which is another aspect I relish.

“Goffs and Yorton share many mutual clients so my new Goffs role will only be complemented by my ongoing connection with Yorton.”

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O’Callaghan Eyes Dubai Riches Before Moving To Purpose-Built Yard

Michael O'Callaghan is eyeing big-race riches in Dubai with half-brothers I Am Superman (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) and Fastnet Crown (Ire) (Hallowed Crown {Aus}) before making the move to a new purpose-built yard near the Curragh ahead of the turf season proper. 

However, the leading Irish trainer has said that he remains in the dark over his position with Amo Racing despite sending out Crypto Force (GB) (Time Test {GB}) to secure G2 Beresford S. glory for Kia Joorabchian's major ownership vehicle at the Curragh last season. 

Crypto Force joined the stable of John and Thady Gosden shortly after that triumph and O'Callaghan revealed that none of Amo Racing's horses, including Olivia Maralda (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), Crispy Cat (GB) (Ardad {Ire}) and Indestructible (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), have returned to his yard for the new season.

He explained, “They haven't arrived back yet. I'm not sure what the plans are with Amo. There was chat about Indestructible coming back but, with the way they move the balls around over the winter, I'll know more in the next few weeks.”

I Am Superman, who O'Callaghan sourced as a yearling and retains a share of, showed a high level of form for the trainer initially on home soil before being moved to Australia in search of better prize-money. 

Now in his second stint with O'Callaghan after returning home from Peter and Paul Snowden's, I Am Superman will be targeted at top-level races in Dubai and is reported to have settled in nicely at Meydan along with his stablemate and half-brother Fastnet Crown. 

O'Callaghan said, “I bought I Am Superman as a yearling. He won three races for us and ran well in the 2019 Irish 2,000 Guineas. I actually had him sold to Hong Kong later that year but he failed the vet for something obscure on an x-ray so we decided to keep him. 

“We brought him to Australia for the prize-money and decided to leave him out there with Peter and Paul Snowden. He'd been there for roughly two years where he racked up about a quarter of a million dollars in prize-money. 

“To be fair to the Snowdens, they felt they never really got the rub of the green with him either because, every time they felt they had him ready, the ground went against him. He was only beaten a short head in a Group 1 on his latest start out there and is from a family who progress a lot with age. I wanted to get a bit of mileage out of him myself before his form tapered off, which is why we got him back and are now aiming him at the big prize-money in Dubai.”

He added, “He's in great form. He got a break in Australia after his last run there. When he came back here, it was just a case of building him back up for Dubai. He's been to Dundalk for a racecourse gallop and he's ready to go. His first run will be in the Zabeel Mile and his main target will be the G1 Jebel Hatta on March 4. He may have a run in between but we'll get the Zabeel Mile out of the way first. If he got an invite for Dubai World Cup Night, we'd have to consider that as well.”

“Fastnet Crown is on the up and I've been wanting to step him up in trip for a while. He won his prep race at Dundalk last week and will start out over a-mile-and-a-furlong on Friday 13 and we'll take it from there. Both horses travelled over there well and they are in great form.”

Fastnet Crown will run in the colours of his owner-breeder Michael Smith, whose Fastnet Lady (Ire) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}) is fast becoming a prolific broodmare. 

O'Callaghan said, “The two of them are out of Fastnet Lady, who Michael also bred. I bought I Am Superman off him and we got to know each other from there. He sent me Fastnet Crown, the half-brother, and we've a full-brother to I Am Superman here as well. The mare has been very lucky for him with her first two foals, I Am Superman rated 114 and Fastnet Crown rated 106, so she's a good mare and I understand that she's now in foal to Australia (GB). Michael has been to Royal Ascot, had a winner on Derby day at the Curragh and he's coming to Dubai as well. He's loving it and I'm delighted because he's a lovely man.”

Domestically, O'Callaghan has high hopes for Gozen (Ire) (Kuroshio {Aus}). A winner on debut at Punchestown last September, Gozen was possibly a shade unlucky not to win the G3 Staffordstown S. at the Curragh when forced to race wide. O'Callaghan has Classic aspirations for the filly who failed to sell at the breeze-ups. 

He said, “Gozen's first intended target will be the Irish 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown over a mile, which we won with Now Or Never (Ire) (Bushranger {Ire}). She's done very well over the winter and, I know it's a cliche but, everything she did last year, she'll improve on it because she's a big, raw filly. She's filled out very well over the winter so I'm really looking forward to her.”

Recalling how Gozen fell through the cracks at the Tattersalls Ireland Goresbridge Breeze-up Sale last year, O'Callaghan added, “To be fair to Eddie Ahern, who consigned her, he always felt she'd need time but he really liked her. He just let her do a nice canter in the breeze and, for people watching on, it probably left more questions than answers. I remember seeing her and I wrote in my catalogue, 'lovely action but she only cantered; is there an issue?' 

“Funnily enough, Michael Shefflin, who is involved with Eddie, rang me a few weeks later to ask if I would have any interest in taking her for a month to try her out. He told me that, if I liked her, I could buy her privately. That's how it all happened.”

Asked if he was tempted to sell Gozen at any stage last season, O'Callaghan said, “There was plenty of interest after she finished second in the Group 3. Her form stacks up very well and you could even say that she was a little unlucky at the Curragh not to win. She will improve for strengthening up and I'd imagine the mile will be her minimum this season. She has a lot of natural speed.”

Seven of O'Callaghan's 15 winners in Ireland last year were recorded with two-year-olds. The figure was 13 from 17 in 2021. Few operators concentrate as heavily on juveniles as O'Callaghan and he has high hopes for the next crop coming through at his new base in Brannoxstown near the Curragh.

He said, “We have a lovely Inns Of Court (Ire) filly-a lovely shape of a filly. She's actually a homebred. I also have a nice Mehmas (Ire) colt and a nice Sioux Nation filly. They look to be nice two-year-old types and I like them. They've done plenty and were all broken in August. “They cantered away and have built their way up as much as they were able for. They'd have quickened up a couple of furlongs just before Christmas before getting a little break and starting back on Monday morning.”

He added, “We'll be fully moved into the new yard by the end of January. It's been a slow process between buying the site, getting planning permission and then the building. The gallops are fully finished over two months now so they will be nicely settled by the time they have horses on them, which is good. We've built the place from scratch and are looking forward to getting going there fully this season.”

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