Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. 

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all. 

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. 

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan. 

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces. 

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third. 

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded. 

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition. 

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures. 

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops. 

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate. 

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn. 

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time. 

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S. 

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne. 

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown. 

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.  

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup. 

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September 

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October 

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November. 

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way. 

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results. 

November 

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success. 

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season. 

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12 Questions With Bertrand Le Metayer

First job in the Thoroughbred industry?
Cheap labour on my parents' stud farm; breaking in horses with my brother Louis.

Biggest influence on your career?
Serving in the commando paratroopers for building my determination. On the horse front it was inspecting Derby sale horses with George Mernagh in Ireland and yearlings with Rogers Beasley in Kentucky.

Favourite racehorse of all time, and why?
Has to be Frankel, not only for his performances but for the great story that it brings to the sport. For Juddmonte's skills of breeding the best and their belief in Sir Henry Cecil's capacity to bounce back in a world where it's easier to swap trainer than find a decent meal in Newmarket!

Who will be champion first-season sire in 2023?
Ask me again in early September.

Greatest race in the world?
Has to be the Arc being the multi-generation contest over testing trip and often ground. Urban Sea's legacy seems to prove it.

If you could be someone else in the industry for a day who would it be, and why?
Ryan Moore on Estimate when reporting to the late Queen after winning the Ascot Gold Cup, the joy that everybody felt that day was beyond explanation.

Emerging talent in the industry (human)?
David Menuisier.

Name a horse TDN should have made a Rising Star, and didn't?
Vadeni (Churchill).

Under-the-radar stallion?
Starspangledbanner.

Friday night treat?
A magnum of Burgundy with Dominic Mahony's finest Pata Negra.

Guilty pleasure outside racing?
That wouldn't be politically correct to reveal…

Race I wish I'd been there for…
The Derby in general.

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Rising Stars: The Ones That Got Away

For all that the annual parade of TDN Rising Stars is generally a formidable one, there are always those that just miss the cut and who forge on to bring that familiar sense of regret and longing from our team here. Of the Europeans who were closely considered but ultimately left out of the picture, none stings more than Ballydoyle's rugged Blackbeard (Ire) (No Nay Never), who first appeared in the five-furlong Dundalk maiden in early April won in the past by Scat Daddy's high-achieving Caravaggio and Skitter Scatter. Mostly workmanlike on this debut, the future star of two of the six-furlong peaks of his generation was judged more in the mould of two of his stable's more recent winners of this race in Cadamosto (Ire), another son of No Nay Never who failed to hit the heights, and King Neptune (War Front). How wrong we were! Like fellow luminaries Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), he was only hinting at the depth of his ability on his Polytrack bow and is truly the one that got away. Below are a few others who, like Blackbeard, were denied Rising Star status but unlike him will be racing in 2023 with the chance to prove us wrong.

COMMISSIONING (GB) (f, Kingman {GB}–Sovereign Parade {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire})

While Kingman enjoys a swathe of TDN Rising Stars, due to his progeny's tendency to instantly wow as he did when handed the tag himself on the July Course at Newmarket 10 years ago, Isa Salman and Abdulla Al Khalifa's homebred was left out of the reckoning after her imposing win there in the summer. John and Thady Gosden's G1 Fillies' Mile and G2 Rockfel S. heroine is a class act and a glaring omission from the ranks. We hold our hands up.

MEDITATE (IRE) (f, No Nay Never–Pembina {Ire}, by Dalakhani {Ire})

Oh, Meditate! How could we? Or how could we not is our question after her emphatic Curragh debut win, also in April. Our only alibi is that the Ballydoyle juveniles at this time of year come thick and fast and it is hard to select the real deals among them. Although she was brushed aside by TDN Rising Star Tahiyra  (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) in the G1 Moyglare Stud S., her GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf romp suggests she is going to be reminding us of our misdemeanour for some time to come.

TRILLIUM (GB) (f, No Nay Never–Marsh Hawk {GB}, by Invincible Spirit {Ire})

Another filly who looks destined for the top, Rockcliffe Stud's homebred looked highly promising at Newbury in July and was as close as it gets to getting on our TDN Rising Star radar without making it. We were left flinching after her G3 Molecomb S. win and defeat of the Abbaye winner The Platinum Queen (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}) in the G2 Flying Childers S., and she is readily forgiven her G1 Cheveley Park S. flop which was probably one run too many. Whether the Richard Hannon stable would forgive us for not bestowing on her the TDN's chief monicker is another question. Expect big things in 2023 from this talent.

MIDNIGHT MILE (IRE) (f, No Nay Never–Ruby Tuesday {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire})

Another daughter of No Nay Never who deserved more of the spotlight when impressing with her finishing surge on her Doncaster debut in July and who made that clear with another strong closing effort to win the G3 Oh So Sharp S. It has been a while since Roisin Henry's colours have been prominent and the way that Richard Fahey's intriguing stable figurehead went through the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf behind Meditate suggests they can be so again.

DRAGON ICON (IRE) (c, Lope De Vega {Ire}–Matauri Pearl {Ire}, by Hurricane Run {Ire})

Maidens and novices at Kempton in November aren't always the strongest, but there was a lot to like about the way Yoshiro Kubota's full-brother to Aunt Pearl (Ire) went through his seven-furlong introduction and jockey David Egan was notably impressed. While the make-up of the race made it a touch difficult to grant a TDN Rising Star tag, it would be no surprise if the Roger Varian trainee, whose dam is a full-sister to another smart Stateside performer in Wekeela (Fr), comes to the fore in 2023.

CIRCLE OF FIRE (GB) (c, Almanzor {Fr}–Fiery Sunset {GB}, by Galileo {Ire})

What would a list of promising Classic prospects be without a member of Sir Michael Stoute's Freemason Lodge? One of the last of The Queen's winners, the half-brother to the GIII San Francisco Mile scorer Evening Sun (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}) looks all over a Derby type and while his novice win over a mile at Salisbury in September was not quite enough to clinch TDN Rising Star status he has all the materials to be a leading light for The King.

RAJAPOUR (IRE) (c, Almanzor {Fr}–Raydara {Ire}, by Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire})

Vadeni (Fr) (Churchill {Ire}) proved last year what Jean-Claude Rouget can do with an Aga Khan homebred and Rajapour went slightly under the Rising Star radar on his debut at Deauville August. Two wins later, the son of the G2 Debutante S. scorer Raydara (Ire) (Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire}) was back there taking the Listed Prix Isonomy which Montjeu (Ire) captured in 1998, and he is one of the most exciting among France's Classic crop.

SOUL SISTER (IRE) (f, Frankel {GB}–Dream Peace {Ire}, by Dansili {GB})

It would be remiss not to include a Frankel here, albeit one that prevailed only narrowly on her sole start when getting the better of the experienced Doom (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) over a mile on testing ground at Doncaster on her sole start in October. Bred to be a smart middle-distance performer, Lady Bamford's daughter of the G2 Prix de la Nonette winner and multiple Grade I-placed Dream Peace is a half-sister to past TDN Rising Star Guru (GB) (Kingman {GB}), who ultimately proved to be disappointing. From the family of Moonstone (GB) (Dalakhani {Ire}) and Cerulean Sky (Ire) (Darshaan {GB}) et al, the John and Thady Gosden-trained homebred performed to a high standard on her debut and has every chance of being a top-class performer at three.

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Jockey Feedback Leads to Further Whip Rule Amendments

The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has made further adjustments to the revised whip rules to be implemented in Britain in the coming months, including scrapping the need for jockeys to use the whip solely backhand position. Instead, the threshold for the number of times the whip may be used per race has been reduced to six times on the Flat and seven times over jumps. Previously the limits had been set at seven and eight respectively.

Penalties for breaching this limit, and for other misuse offences such as using the whip above shoulder height or not giving a horse time to respond, will be further increased beyond the planned increases which were published in November.

Since that time jockeys have raised concerns over information which was not aired during the consultation or technical discussion phase of the latest whip review, prompting a meeting between representatives of the Professional Jockeys Association (PJA) and the BHA board, with the latter insisting that the most recent amendments do not “reflect a dilution of the package of rule changes, but instead a method of achieving the same outcomes through a different approach”.

Another 19 recommendations and rule changes remain unchanged from the previous announcement. They include:

  • The introduction of disqualification as a penalty for use of the whip four times or more above the permitted level.
  • The introduction of a Whip Referral Committee which is responsible for evaluation of all rides and any necessary sanction or action, to increase consistency and drive ongoing improvement in riding standards.
  • The removal of “discretion” being applied by the stewards around interpretation of whip offences. Therefore every use of the whip will count towards the thresholds for use, unless it has been used clearly and unequivocally for safety purposes. This will have the effect of further reducing whip use.
  • Increased penalties for offences, including doubled suspensions in major races.

In National Hunt racing, the new rules are set to come into force next Monday (January 9) but with a “bedding-in” period, during which jockeys will be asked to ride under the new rules but will not be subject to the adjusted penalties until February 6. In Flat racing, a “soft launch” commences on February 27, with full implementation of the new penalties from March 27.

“An extremely thorough consultation was carried out over the course of 2021 and 2022, followed by an extensive technical discussion phase after the publication of the recommendations in July,” said David Jones, chair of the BHA's Whip Consultation Steering Group.

 “Efforts were taken to listen to the views of jockeys from both codes, over many hours. This consultation has arguably been the most thorough undertaken by the BHA in relation to any specific regulatory reform in the past.

 “In order to ensure that this process was suitably rigorous we pushed back the planned autumn implementation date for new rules.

 “However, we are committed to listening to our participants, and when further views and information come to light very late in the day, and following the conclusion of that process, we were duty bound to consider it, and make representations to the BHA Board accordingly.”

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