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Equibase Analysis: Tiz The Law Has ‘Triple Advantage’ In Travers

The Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers Stakes is undoubtedly the biggest race on a star-studded card at Saratoga on Saturday, August 8. With four weeks to go until the first Saturday in September, it's one of the last three opportunities for horses to gain points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will allow them to enter the starting gate next month. The last two races in the series are the Ellis Park Derby (Sunday, Aug. 9) and the Pegasus Stakes (Saturday, Aug. 15).

The eight horse field for the Travers is led by division leader Tiz the Law, who is undefeated in three races this year. As the points leader, Tiz the Law doesn't need to win the race to run in the Kentucky Derby but as he has dominated the division this winter, spring and summer it is likely he will win. Country Grammer and Caracaro arguably are horses that can improve and provide the favorite with a challenge, having just finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes last month.

Uncle Chuck ships out from California for trainer Bob Baffert, having scratched out of the Shared Belief Stakes last week for this race. He enters the race off a win in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby and is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice to date in his career. South Bend proved competitive in the 3-year-old division when last seen at the end of June, rallying from 10th in the early stages to come up just three-quarters of a length shy of winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

Max Player also rallied late in a race in the division when third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June but still was five and one-quarter lengths in arrears of Tiz the Law. Shivaree made his mark earlier this year when second behind Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but most recently finished 11th in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. First Line rounds out the field, taking a huge step up in class following a maiden victory at Saratoga 10 days ago.

In terms of how fast he's run, Tiz the Law stands out in this year's Runhappy Travers Field. In his first start as a 3-year-old in February, Tiz the Law earned a spectacular 117 Equibase Speed Figure, which is unheard of for that time of year. Nearly two months later when dominating in the Florida Derby by four and one-quarter lengths, Tiz the Law earned a 112 figure, then following nearly three more months off he earned a 113 figure winning the Belmont Stakes. Not only did Tiz the Law dominate and beat a total of 23 other horses in those three races by an average of 3 1/2 lengths, he never gave any other horse a chance to win in the last eighth of a mile. Putting those figures in perspective, they amount to a “triple advantage,” as the lowest of the three figures is higher than the best figure of any of the other seven horses in this race. With the ability to relax in second or third in the early stages of his races then find another gear to drive by the field and coast home, Tiz the Law is likely to win the Travers Stakes as easily as he has won his other three races this year and enter the gate for the Kentucky Derby as the first prohibitive favorite in many years.

That being said, it is not totally out of the realm of possibility either Caracaro or Country Grammer could post the upset to win the Travers. Three weeks ago in the Peter Pan Stakes run at the slightly shorter distance of one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga, Country Grammer and Caracaro engaged in a stirring stretch battle, with Caracaro securing the advantage by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and Country Grammer asserting himself on the finish line by that same margin. They both earned 95 figures for the race, which isn't even in the same area code as the 113 figure Tiz the Law earned a few weeks earlier winning the Belmont Stakes. Still, both colts had run better prior to that and have the breeding to run even better at this mile and one-quarter distance. Caracaro improved to a 103 figure in January in only the second start of his career, an 11 point improvement off his debut. As such, having been off from January until the Peter Pan six months later, improving another 11 points off the 95 figure effort puts him in line with the 117 figure effort Tiz the Law put forth in his best this year. Country Grammer had been off for three months before his June 4 prep for the Peter Pan in which he finished third with a 98 figure and he too could leap frog past that previous best to have a big say in the outcome of the Travers.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is First Line (96), Max Player (105), Shivaree (106), South Bend (98) and Uncle Chuck (98).

Win Contenders:
Tiz the Law
Caracaro
Country Grammer

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 8 – Post Time 6:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: Fox Sports 5 – 6:30 PM E.T.

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Drury ‘Hit The Lottery’ With Ellis Park Derby Favorite Art Collector

When Tommy Drury runs Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass winner Art Collector in Sunday's $200,000 RUNHAPPY Ellis Park Derby, the trainer might be in unchartered water but he's very familiar with the route to get there.

During a training career that began almost 30 years ago, Drury has made the 284-mile round trip from his Oldham County base to Ellis Park countless times. Ditto the 176 miles to and from Cincinnati's Belterra Park, 250 loop up and back from Indiana Grand, 700 miles for West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, 735 round trip from Ohio's Mahoning Valley.

But never has Drury made the trek with a horse who is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, whose four-month COVID-created delay to Sept. 5 made it possible for Ellis Park to stage a prep race for the Derby for the first time in the track's 98-year history.

“Gosh, I think the second horse I ever raced ran at Ellis Park,” the second-generation trainer said. “I've been going there my entire life. Winning the Blue Grass at Keeneland, normally when I go into Keeneland our goal is just to win a race. And for Ellis to have a Derby prep and to be a part of that, it's kind of my people, if you will. These are the tracks that I normally race at. To be able to go to these places and run in their big races, it's a lot of fun.”

Owned by breeder and Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford, Art Collector already is in the Kentucky Derby, thanks to the 100 qualifying points he earned in winning last month's Grade 2, $600,000 Toyota Blue Grass by 3 1/2 lengths over the impressive filly Swiss Skydiver. The 1 1/8-mile Ellis Park Derby offers 50 points to the winner, but for Art Collector is simply a tool in his preparation to get to the Kentucky Derby in the best condition possible to run 1 1/4 miles. Art Collector's regular rider is Brian Hernandez Jr., the 2012 Ellis Park meet leader.

Drury has been around a lot of top-caliber horses, but mostly he was getting 2-year-olds ready or bringing horses back off layoffs for other trainers. The Blue Grass was Drury's first victory in a graded stakes, those designated as America's best races. In fact, he's only even run in 12 other graded stakes. Drury, shipping around from his base at the Skylight training center in Goshen, has run in a slew of non-graded stakes, with 13 wins. While the Ellis Park Derby is not graded, it would be his second-most lucrative race to win.

The lifelong Louisvillian is determined to not only enjoy the ride but to make sure his crew at Skylight and Churchill Downs enjoy it as well.

“We've always been the guys behind the scenes,” Drury said Wednesday after Art Collector trained at Skylight. “A lot of the Grade 1 winners we've had here, a lot of people don't know we were ever associated with them. And that's our job, that's what we do. We're certainly happy to do that. Now all of a sudden it's our name, and we get to be the ones to lead one over there and we get to kind of be involved at this level. Yeah, it's been a lot of fun for all of us. These guys work really hard, and they deserve a lot of credit for our success.”

Among the horses Drury had before they went to more high-profile trainers are Lunsford's Grade 1-winning millionaire Madcap Escapade (trained by Frank Brothers), current leading older horse Tom's d'Etat (Al Stall Jr.), Grade 1 winner Lea (Bill Mott) and 2-year-old champion Hansen (Mike Maker).

“It's nice to be able to play the game at that level, even if it's for a short period of time,” Drury said. “Just the education of having horses like that, all of a sudden Art Collector comes into my life and I felt that I've got a pretty good handle of what I need to be doing on a day-to-day basis to have him compete at this level.”

Art Collector started his career last year racing on grass (getting his first win at Kentucky Downs) before sprinting on dirt, going to Drury in January to get back in shape after some time off. The plan was for Art Collector to go another trainer for his 3-year-old season. However because of the havoc the pandemic was having on racetracks, Lunsford asked Drury — insulated at Skylight with uninterrupted training — to go on and prepare Art Collector for his return to racing in May. After he won an allowance race for keeps at seven-eighths of a mile, Lunsford simply kept the horse with Drury. He's now 3-for-3 with Art Collector, including a 6 1/2-length second-level allowance victory at 1 1/16 miles over Indiana Derby winner Shared Sense, whom he'll meet again Sunday.

“Bruce was kind enough to leave him with us and give us an opportunity of a lifetime,” Drury said. “It's certainly not something that's taken for granted. We know how we got the horse, and we just want to make the most of it and try to remember to enjoy it while we're here.”

If not for COVID, Drury wouldn't have the horse, and even if he did, Art Collector wouldn't have been in the Kentucky Derby on its original May 2 date.

“I was joking with someone the other day; this horse was a 'half-mile fit' the first Saturday in May,” Drury said. “There was zero chance. You couldn't even consider the Derby if it had been on its normal schedule. Even with the Derby being pushed back, we were still in a situation where we absolutely needed everything to go just our way. In horse racing, more often than not, that doesn't happen. It's kind of been, 'Gosh, this horse could maybe get us there' but in the back of your mind, you're always thinking 'how often does everything go perfect?'

“I think that's taken a little bit of the pressure off. I knew the water was going to get deep in the Blue Grass. He passed that test and then you immediately work backward from the Derby. You need that next race; you need that next start. You look up, and here's the Ellis race. Hopefully we can just ride this out a little longer and keep things falling into place the way they have. It's almost like the stars aligned for us.”

Now he just has to hope the stars stay that way for another four weeks. Especially for a lifelong Louisvillian, this happy turn of events is a bit mind-boggling, with Drury acknowledging a lot of nights lying awake “staring at the ceiling.”

He says at age 28, “you're thinking about winning Kentucky Derbys and Breeders' Cups every day.” By the time he reached 48, Drury knew the hard reality probably was that something would “have to fall between the cracks” to even get a shot.

“I compare it to hitting the lottery,” he said. “You think about what it would be like to hit the lottery, and you think about how you would react and what you would do. For me, growing up in Louisville, you look at the Kentucky Derby the same way. You watch it from afar every year and you're a fan of horse racing. The horses and the people who are involved, to all of a sudden see your horse in your name and that race being mentioned, gosh, you just can't find the words to describe it. It's a dream come true.”

Entries will be taken and post positions drawn for the Ellis Park Derby on Thursday.

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‘I’ve Never Seen Him Take A Deep Breath’: Tagg Unconcerned About Travers Distance With Tiz The Law

Trainer Barclay Tagg is looking forward to Saturday's Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga with even money morning-line favorite Tiz The Law, and he doesn't believe the 1 1/4-mile distance will be a problem for the 3-year-old son of Constitution.

“He's done everything we've asked him to do,” Tagg told NYRA publicity after Wednesday's post position draw. “We've been very fortunate. I don't think any distance makes a difference for this horse. From what I've seen, I just don't have any feeling that he can't handle it. It would be nice to win it if we could.

“I've never seen him take a deep breath. I've never had him out of breath after a workout. I've never had him way out of breath after a race and he [cools] off very quickly. His lungs settle right down and nothing seems to be a hazard. I could be all wrong in that. It might change in another eighth of a mile, I don't know, but I've got no reason to worry about it.”

Tiz the Law will break from post position six in a field of eight, and the Sackatoga Stable colt will be ridden by regular jockey Manny Franco.

“I think he's matured enough now that outside or inside is not going to bother him too much,” said Tagg of the post. “I'd prefer that he's on the outside just because you have less chance of getting in trouble. Not that you can't, but you have less chance. I think post 6 is fine. Five would have been fine. Four would have been fine. Any of those three would have been fine with me.”

The Belmont Stakes and Florida Derby winner has a total of 272 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and tops the current leaderboard approaching the rescheduled classic on Sept. 5. The $1 million Travers will offer 100-40-20-10 points to the top-four finishers.

With four weeks between the Travers and the Run for the Roses, Tiz the Law will face a field that includes lightly-raced Bob Baffert trainee Uncle Chuck, last-out winner of the Los Alamitos Derby.

“Bob Baffert does very, very well,” Tagg said. “He's got fresh stock all the time and good horses, so you've always got to be concerned. But if you let the concern bother you too much, you wouldn't be racing horses. You can't worry about that. All I worry about his having my horse get there the best we can get him there. He's done everything we've asked him to do.”

The full field for the Travers is as follows:

First Line – Orlando Noda – David Cohen (30-1)
Country Grammer – Chad Brown – Irad Ortiz, Jr. (6-1)
Uncle Chuck – Bob Baffert – Luis Saez (5-2)
Max Player – Linda Rice – Joel Rosario (6-1)
Shivaree – Ralph Nicks – Junior Alvarado (30-1)
Tiz the Law – Barclay Tagg – Manny Franco (1-1)
Caracaro – Gustavo Delgado – Javier Castellano (10-1)
South Bend – Bill Mott – Jose Ortiz (15-1)

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Major Fed Team Decides To Skip Ellis Park Derby, Train Up To Kentucky Derby

Major Fed, runner-up in the Indiana Derby on July 8, had been under consideration for Sunday's Ellis Park Derby at the Henderson, Ky. track. Instead, Travis Foley, assistant and son to trainer Greg Foley, told the Daily Racing Form that the 3-year-old son of Ghostzapper will head straight to the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5.

Based at Churchill Downs, Major Fed worked a half-mile beneath the Twin Spires in :50.20 on Aug. 1.

“We're happy with where we are with him and comfortable with the points situation,” the younger Foley told drf.com. “Everything's good and we didn't feel like we needed the race in between.”

Major Fed also owns a second-place finish in the G2 Risen Star Stakes, and a fourth from the G2 Louisiana Derby, leaving him with a total of 38 points toward the Kentucky Derby. He currently sits 16th on the points leaderboard.