Pappacap | Horse Racing Free Tips

“She’s a Special One,” George and Karen Russell on Superstar Broodmare Pappascat

Boppy O (Bolt d'Oro) was greeted by an ecstatic winner's circle as he circled back to the Saratoga grandstand after his 23-1 upset in the GIII With Anticipation S., but he had another cheering squad celebrating from his birthplace in Reddick, Florida. His breeders George and Karen Russell of Rustlewood Farm were out with friends as the juvenile colt made his turf debut, but they didn't hesitate to huddle around their phone at the dinner table so they could watch the race live.

“We were thinking it would sure be good if he hit the board,” George Russell said the day after the big win. “Then when he won we were obviously really excited. He's still young and a little green, but hopefully he'll do good in his next start and go on to the Breeders' Cup. If he does, we'll be there.”

If Boppy O does make an appearance on Future Stars Friday, it would not be the Russells' first representation at the championship meet. Boppy O is the half-brother to last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Pappacap (Gun Runner). While both colts are trained by Mark Casse, Grade II winner and three-time Grade I-placed Pappacap was retained by his breeder and is campaigned by Rustlewood Farm.

The Russells purchased Pappascat (Scat Daddy), the dam of these two impressive performers, in 2015 after she RNA'd for $110,000 at the Keeneland November Sale. Pappascat is one of just over a dozen mares at Rustlewood Farm.

“She's a lovely mare, a big pretty mare,” Karen explained. “She's easy to be around. She doesn't crib, she doesn't have to wear shoes and she's not a drama queen.”

“She seems to be consistent with what she is producing,” George added. “They all have a lot of desire and they're good on themselves.”

While Karen was the one who suggested sending Pappascat to Gun Runner after watching the future red-hot sire capture the 2018 GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S., George enlisted the help of friend and advisor Francis Vanlangendonck of Summerfield Sales to plan the mating to Bolt d'Oro that produced Boppy O.

Boppy O as a youngster at Rustlewood Farm | Shelley Bunning

Shelley Bunning, the farm manager at Rustlewood, offered insight on the Florida-bred colt's early days and explained that Boppy O had a much different personality than his older brother.

“Pappacap was more settled with the concept of working than Boppy O was,” she said with a chuckle. “Everything you asked, Pappacap did with enthusiasm and he wanted to do it right whereas Boppy O was more along the lines of, 'I can do it but I just might not want to do it today.' He was very capable, but sometimes stubborn.”

Bunning noted that as the colt matured, he grew a bit more laid-back.

“Once we started yearling prep with him, he grasped the situation and what we wanted him to do, but whether he was going to do it that day was up to him,” she said. “He did work hard and apply himself, and he grew up and filled out nicely.”

Pappacap was retained by the Russells when he was unable to sell at what they believed was his true worth as a yearling in 2020, but Boppy O followed the farm's usual protocol of going through a sale as a yearling. The colt sold for $190,000 to John Oxley and Breeze Easy LLC. He went on to break his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream in May and then finished a disappointing 10^th in the GIII Sandford S. before bouncing back impressively in his With Anticipation score, where he was the first graded stakes winner for his freshman sire.

Bunning was quick to credit her employers for their positive outlook in the face of selling a future graded winner.

“A lot of times in the industry people gripe about how, 'Oh we shouldn't have sold that horse,'” Bunning said. “But they're not mad about it; they think it's brilliant. They're just happy that everyone's enjoying it.”

“We always wish the best for the people that buy them,” George said. “It's exciting and it makes it worthwhile. We've learned that you generally have the one or the two that pay for the others. To get something like this and have a mare like Pappascat, it makes it so much more enjoyable to have something to look forward to.”

While the Russells have experienced the highs of the game with Pappascat and her offspring, they've also endured the lowest of lows. Just three weeks ago, Pappascat's yearling by Omaha Beach died tragically. It's a loss that could never be replaced for the couple no matter the success of the mare's other offspring.

Grade II winner Pappacap | Sarah Andrew

“He was a special individual,” George said. “We were really devastated and it's still hard to believe. We've never had an experience like that where we lost a horse that was doing fine and then was gone within hours. He had a fever in the morning and he was immediately loaded up and headed to the clinic. We were never worried about what eventually happened.”

“The lows are the lows, but this week we have Boppy O lifting us back up,” Karen said.

While the loss still weighs heavy, the Russells were grateful to find cause for celebration in Boppy O's victory and they have also found solace in two other sons of Pappascat thriving at their farm.

Following a fourth-place finish in the GII Amsterdam S. in July, Pappacap has returned to Rustlewood this month for a bit of 'R and R' and a diet that includes plenty of peppermints.

“He's in one of the paddocks right by our house,” George shared. “Karen goes out there and takes care of him. He's been pretty consistent for us and he's sound as could be, so we figured it was a well-deserved break and he will tell us when he's ready to go back.”

This year, Pappascat produced a colt by War of Will. The Russells reported that the May-foaled youngster could be something special.

“He's just about the nicest thing we've seen,” Karen said. “We think he's the best one so far. Plus, Pappascat is back in foal to Candy Ride.”

Asked if Pappacap–or maybe even Boppy O–would go down as an all-time favorite bred at Rustlewood, the Russells could not give a definitive answer as they listed off additional stars in Grade II victor Mach Ride (Pentelicus), Grade III winner Prudhoe Bay (Songandaprayer) and SW Consider Thesource (Notebook).

“They mean the world to us,” Karen said “I can't talk about them without crying. They're all really special.”

“They're all treated the same and my wife loves them all,” said George. “How Pappascat has produced for us, mares like her are few and far between. It just adds a little something extra to it. She's a special one.”

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Smile Happy, Zandon Square Off in Risen Star

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Zandon (Upstart), one a graded winner in their second trip to the races and the other unlucky not to achieve the same, meet for their respective sophomore debuts in Saturday's GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. The Risen Star is the first of 16 races that comprise the 'Kentucky Derby Championship Series' and offers Kentucky Derby points on a 50-20-10-5 scale.

A $185,000 purchase out of the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy was the recipient of an inside-out ride from Brian Hernandez, Jr. going two turns at Keeneland Oct. 29 and powered away to graduate by 5 1/2 lengths. No better than the third favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. a month later, the bay was once again consigned to a wide run around the bend, but he surged past recent GIII Sam F. Davis S. hero Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) and finished with good energy to take it by 3 1/4 lengths. The form of the Jockey Club has also been further franked by the third-placed White Abarrio (Race Day), who won the GIII Holy Bull S. with a 97 Beyer; and Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute), a wide seventh in the Jockey Club who upset this year's GIII Lecomte S.

“I think this is a good first step for Smile Happy,” said trainer Ken McPeek. “He's doing super. He's done everything right. He's a very low-maintenance horse who makes our job easy. We're trying to keep him and [GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity winner] Rattle N Roll (Connect) separated, with Rattle N Roll pointing for the [Mar. 5 GII Fasig-Tipton] Fountain of Youth[S.]”

Zandon brushed the inside of the stall, but overcame that bit of trouble to break his maiden by 1 1/2 lengths Oct. 9 at Belmont and was the 1.35-1 favorite for the GII Remsen S. Dec. 4. Three wide the trip, he was confronted by Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in upper stretch and had every reason to call it a day, but battled bravely inside and missed by just a nose after arguably being impeded by the eventual winner. He covered 46 more feet (about five lengths) in the process. The $170,000 Keeneland September acquisition ships in from South Florida, where he fired a bullet half-mile in :48 2/5 (1/41) Feb. 12 at Payson Park.

“He's got to get over the shipping, but the horse couldn't be training any better,” trainer Chad Brown said. “He's a very exciting prospect and I don't see any reason why he won't get up to a mile and quarter.”

Epicenter (Not This Time) set reasonable fractions in the Lecomte, but could not resist the center-track rally of Call Me Midnight and dropped a head decision. He was three-parts of a length clear of GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Pappacap (Gun Runner), who was unable to take advantage of another ideal trip and settled for third.

Bodock (Street Boss) was a debut winner at Indiana Grand Nov. 10 and will try two turns off a 1 1/4-length defeat of $825,000 KEENOV purchase Strava (Into Mischief) in a sloppy six-furlong allowance Jan. 15.

The post Smile Happy, Zandon Square Off in Risen Star appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Feb. 8

We're inside the three-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby. The Top 12 portfolio has been re-balanced by culling highly rated contenders who have yet to post published workouts in 2022. So 'TDN Rising Stars' Corniche (Quality Road) and Jack Christopher (Munnings) are out, and new shooters who emerged from this past weekend's trio of stakes have rushed forward to fill the gap. Nature abhors a vacuum–and so do Derby lists.

1) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $284,810. Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy, the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL), remains on target to headline the Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds. This past Saturday, this physically imposing colt tracked and blew by an unraced workmate in a :59.52 five-eighths breeze (2/24) at Gulfstream Park. A few hours later, Smile Happy's form upticked when White Abarrio (Race Day), who had run third behind Smile Happy in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., won the GIII Holy Bull S. by open lengths with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure.

Although light on experience, the 2-for-2 Smile Happy scores highly in terms of maturity. Both this colt's maiden win (big far-turn move) and subsequent stakes romp (menacing mid-pack stalk) earned style points as visually arresting performances. Although Smile Happy's sire was the 2015 champion sprinter, his dam sire, Pleasant Tap, was resilient at distances up to 10 furlongs. He was third in the 1990 Derby, then second in the '91 GI Breeders' Cup Sprint. Pleasant Tap then stretched out and won champion older horse honors in '92, beating both A.P. Indy and Strike the Gold in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup (before running a gallant second to A.P. Indy in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic).

2) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-2-1, $596,000. Last Start: 3rd GIIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Trainer Mark Casse told Daily Racing Form last week that Tyler Gaffalione will replace Joe Bravo as Pappacap's jockey for the Risen Star S. Feb. 19. That's an understandable move: Bravo is 3-for-21 for Casse in limited action over the last five years, and he hasn't won for the barn since Pappacap's last victory Aug. 7 in the GII Best Pal S. at Del Mar. Gaffalione, on the other hand, has ridden more than 400 horses for Casse over that same time frame, garnering a steady 17% win clip.

This hard-trying son of Gun Runner looked primed to pounce, but couldn't seal the deal when third in the Jan. 22 GIII Lecomte S. But the bet here is the stout run he uncorked from upper stretch to the final 50 yards did Pappacap more good than it might appear on paper. With six races under his belt, it's apparent this homebred for Rustlewood Farm is an alert breaker who displays a high level of comfort stalking in covered-up positions, and he has already shown he can launch multiple in-race moves coupled with a determined ability to dig in when rivals close in on him. But we're now past the six-month mark since Pappacap last saw the winner's circle, and he won't be able to rely on the street cred of his 15-1 runner-up try in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile much longer if he doesn't figure out how to translate all those positive attributes into winning efforts.

3) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-1, $181,100. Last Start: 2nd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 12. KY Derby Points: 6.

Classic Causeway's training pattern at Palm Meadows has extended all the way up to six- and seven-furlong breezes so far this winter, noticeably different than the more commonplace workload of four- and five-furlong moves posted by his peers. The heft of his juvenile races–a 90-Beyer, 6 1/2-length winning sprint debut at the Spa; a third when forcing the pace from post 13 in a Grade I Keeneland route; then second behind Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club S.–will likely be enough to earn this Giant's Causeway colt favoritism in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa on Saturday. This homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper will be trying to erase a recent run of bad luck for the chalk in that Tampa prep: The last four faves (and five of the last six) have lost the Davis, including the presumptive 2021 Horse of the Year Knicks Go (Paynter), who was off the board in the 2019 edition.

4) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

When you win by 15 lengths and post a 103 Beyer in your sophomore debut, it's good enough to leapfrog two-thirds of the field to land in the Top 12. 'TDN Rising Star' Messier, a $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker, broke running from the rail in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. and withstood steady pace pressure (:23.24 and :23.70 for the first two opening quarters) from two outside rivals while always dictating the cadence of the three-way go. He put away one rival seven-sixteenths out and let the other linger until the quarter pole before drawing away with assurance at the top of the lane.

Blinkers had been removed from Messier after an odds-on defeat in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity, but jockey John Velazquez didn't think the equipment change is what sparked Messier's rebound.

“It was just the way the race set up. I'm in post one and I don't want to give the lead to them in front of me, then they slow down in front of my face and I can't get out of there,” Velazquez said. “I'm not going to chase them, but I'm going to let him get his legs underneath of him. If they want to go faster, they can go faster and I don't have to be on his mouth….It was a strategy that worked.”

Because Bob Baffert is currently barred by Churchill Downs from participating in the Derby and his trainees can't earn qualifying points, Messier is currently a “ghost contender” in Churchill's official rankings. Here within TDN's own Top 12, Baffert's 3-year-olds will remain listed for the time being based on the merits of the horses themselves while the Derby status decision appears headed for litigation.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel turned in an appealing one-turn-mile win in his Dec. 11 Gulfstream unveiling, and trainer Todd Pletcher strongly believed that this More Than Ready colt needed to make his two-turn debut in an allowance race instead of a stakes. So he shipped Emmanuel to Tampa for that schooling, and the 3-to-10 favorite delivered as expected Jan. 30, winning by a comfortable 4 1/2 lengths while not having to truly extend himself. On the lead throughout (and racing with Lasix for the first time), Emmanuel got away with a pedestrian :25.03 opening quarter in that mile and 40 yards race, then ramped up the tempo under light restraint, posting a second quarter in :24.65 and a third in a more racehorse-like :23.92 with three closers on his heels at the quarter pole. One of them briefly seized the lead between calls in upper stretch, but Emmanuel responded instantly by snatching back the top spot and accelerating fluidly with plenty of power in reserve (89 Beyer). His wins over both of Florida's main-track surfaces put the Mar. 5 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. and the Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby in play as possible next-race options.

6) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Considering he was a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles races, Mo Donegal was an ill-advised favorite in the Holy Bull S. on Saturday. But he ran well enough (in spots) to spark speculation about what this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo might be able to do under less arduous trip circumstances. Irad Ortiz Jr. worked to get him positioned at the fence while a midpack fifth through the first turn, then went on the drift all the way out to the five path as soon as they turned onto the backstretch in search of better running room. They didn't find it, and this colt gradually became boxed in, necessitating Ortiz to thread back inside to the two path entering the far turn. When that decision also failed to yield an express lane, Mo was once again shifted outside, directed widest of all for the drive. Initially, the administration of right-handed stick work didn't inspire Mo at all, and a couple of lefts sent him veering to the eight path in upper stretch. But a sixteenth from the finish, even though the winner was well clear, something clicked for Mo, and he responded, digging in with renewed interest to shoot alongside the runner-up, just barely getting pipped for the place photo. “The last hundred yards he was making up a lot of ground. He just kind of ran out of real estate at the end,” said trainer Todd Pletcher.

7) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Early Voting is emerging as a speed-centric threat whose specialty is sustained intensity. Rather than blitzing his rivals with an all-out frontal assault, this $200,000 KEESEP colt torques them into submission, grinding away with metronomic efficiency. His 2-for-2 start is even more impressive when you factor in his debut score was accomplished over what trainer Chad Brown termed as a “dead” track, and how Saturday's GIII Withers S. wire job came over what jockey Jose Ortiz said was a “tiring” muddy surface.

By Gun Runner out of a Tiznow mare, Early Voting was sent for speed at the break and willingly spearheaded the field. Although he faced only mild pace pressure early, he gave the impression of being able to power away at will, and after opening up incrementally on the backstretch, it was only by the far turn that the laborious nature of the surface begin to show in his stride. Kept to task through the lane, Early Voting stayed on capably despite some late drifting while clear of minor threats to win by 4 1/2 lengths.

The splits for nine furlongs (:23.57, :24.47, :26.25, 27:46 for the first four quarters, then :14.15 for the final eighth) are more telling of the toiling nature of the track than the capability of the winner; his so-so 78 Beyer might also be a bit skewed in relation to his true talent. Considering Early Voting is undefeated at Aqueduct, the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 9 has to be considered a strong next-race option.

8) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker)O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Newgrange displayed a new dimension when scoring via stalk mode in the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn. But given the primo, trouble-free setup he enjoyed behind two long-shot speedsters, this 3-for-3 Violence colt (with zero Derby qualifying points) made the task more difficult than it needed to be. He popped out of the 10-hole alertly and was not hard-used to attain the lead; rather, John Velazquez let Newgrange watch the backstretch action percolate while five or six paths off the rail. A half-mile out, Johnny V. allowed a couple of mid-race movers to pulse through inside, but by the far turn this $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be pushed along with unexpected urgency. Once he got rolling, Newgrange appeared well-positioned to inhale the pacemakers with a four-wide sweep at the head of the lane, but he faltered for a few strides turning for home. Velazquez eventually figured out a workable rhythm in deep stretch, allowing Newgrange to finally grind past his outclassed rivals. Trainer Bob Baffert later said Newgrange might have been having difficulty handling the purportedly cuppy surface early in the race. The 89 Beyer represents a one-point advance over his GIII Sham S. score.

9) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 4.

This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart has been re-aimed for the Risen Star S. after his connections opted to pass on the Holy Bull S. this past Saturday. The obvious positives in favor of shipping Zandon to the Fair Grounds include the extra half-furlong over a longer home straight, plus more Derby qualifying points. Potential negatives include having to travel away from Zandon's home base in Florida and the fact that trainer Chad Brown told the Blood-Horse last week that he's “a little more uncomfortable” about having to wait until Feb. 19 with a colt that is “ready to run now.” The Risen Star will equate to a 78-day layoff since Zandon ran second in the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. Over the last five years, Brown is 4-for-13 with 3-year-old males in nine-furlong or greater races returning off layoffs between 70 and 90 days. He also rarely ships to New Orleans. Brown's record at the Fair Grounds since 2017 is 1-for-4, all of them grass stakes.

10) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-1-0, $170,639. Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Aiming for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Epicenter's loss by a head in the Lecomte S. told us more about him than the two victories that preceded it. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time established control, turned back a wall of horses off the final turn, won a prolonged stretch fight with the favorite, then just got nailed at the wire by an out-of-the-clouds 28-1 shot. He had to juggle multiple tasks and handled himself admirably in a narrow defeat.

In his previous win, the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, Epicenter sparred with the speed, then drew off without facing any serious stretch challenge.

Rivals running back out of that Dec. 26 stakes are now 0-for-3, and the maidens who ran behind Epicenter in his Nov. 13 MSW score at Churchill are a collective next-out 1-for-8, so his company lines aren't exactly brimming with winners. Steve Asmussen has him on track for the Risen Star S., a race the trainer won with Gun Runner (2016) and Pyro (2008).

11) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Rattle N Roll is edging close enough to a comeback (the Tampa Bay Derby is a possibility) to merit a foothold within the Top 12. Trainer Kenny McPeek last year compared this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt favorably to grand-sire Curlin, and a shared trait of poise shone through in Rattle N Roll's comfortable uncoiling from midpack to run off with the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. by 4 1/4 lengths. A left hind foot abscess kept him out of the Breeders' Cup, and he's now three Gulfstream breezes into being race-ready.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

White Abarrio is an efficient-moving, athletic gray who clearly has an affinity for Gulfstream, where he's 3-for-3 with combined win margins of 15 1/4 lengths. He also benefitted immensely from an ideal tactical setup in the GIII Holy Bull S. Although it's not his fault that the four horses who were bet lower than White Abarrio's 6-1 all suffered some sort of trip adversity that kept them from firing their best shots, those circumstances have to be taken into account when assessing whether this Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR; privately purchased after his debut win) is a Derby threat.

Then again, White Abarrio's impressive 97 Beyer might end up speaking for itself. Hustled out of the gate, he applied pressure at the vulnerable flank of a 19-1 pacemaker just out of the maiden ranks, taking over midway through the far turn. By the time White Abarrio was being set down and kept to task in upper stretch, the favorite had already been blocked and boxed, the second fave had blown the break, the third choice reportedly displaced his soft palate, and the fourth was getting pelted with kickback in an unsuccessful turf-to-dirt transition. All that meant White Abarrio faced only belated bids while coasting home on a short-stretch configuration that played to his advantage. A more seasoned cast of contenders and an extra half-furlong await in the GI Curlin Florida Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): This $59 winner rallied to collar a softened pacemaker at the last jump in the GIII Lecomte S. As per Daily Racing Form, trainer Keith Desormeaux is now on the fence between the Risen Star S. and the GII Louisiana Derby for this four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV, $37,0000 RNA KEESEP, $17,000 OBSOCT, $80,000 OBSMAR).

Giant Game (Giant's Causeway): This $500,000 FTKSEL colt had a no-excuse stalking trip for three-quarters of the Holy Bull S., then plummeted through the pack. As per a twitter post by co-owner West Point Thoroughbreds, he reportedly displaced his soft palate.

God of Love (Cupid): Two-time Woodbine stakes victor and three-time auction buy ($77,000 KEENOV; $9,000 KEESEP; $100,000 OBSMAR) could be the wild card of Saturday's Sam Davis at Tampa (entries taken Wednesday) after winter weather necessitated a rerouting from New York's Withers S. last weekend.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Not too many 92-Beyer allowance winners by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream go off at 10-1 odds. Trainer Kelly Breen said “all options are open” for this three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR).

Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. at Churchill ($265.000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) could resurface for his '22 debut in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. for trainer Pletcher.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Did he catch Messier at a vulnerable time in that colt's development in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity or is this Reddam homebred the real deal, Derby-wise? His upcoming trip to New Orleans for the Risen Star should help answer that.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Feb. 8 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 25

We're about to tear the January page off the calendar, a ritual that signals a welcome thaw in the prep schedule for the GI Kentucky Derby. Over the next two weekends there will be four qualifying points stakes from coast to coast. Here's who's hot (and not) heading into February.

Smile Happy has brawn, natural speed, ahead-of-his-peers mental maturity, and “swagger factor” on his side. But they don't drape a blanket of roses across your back on the first Saturday in May just for checking a lot of boxes on the desirability list. This son of Runhappy needs racing experience to flesh out his authoritative two-for-two record as a juvenile, and trainer Ken McPeek has now settled on the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds over 1 1/8 miles for Smile Happy's sophomore debut (after previously considering shorter and earlier preps at both Oaklawn and Gulfstream). McPeek told Daily Racing Form last week the Risen Star would be the first of what would “ideally” be a two-prep path to Louisville. Since 1937, only three horses have won the Derby with four or fewer previous lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four), plus Justify and Big Brown (three each). McPeek trainees returning after 60 to 90 days off in races of nine furlongs or greater have won two of 15 starts over the past five years. On Sunday, Smile Happy closed at 8-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby future wager, the lowest-priced individual betting entrant behind the 9-5 favored field.

2) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-2-1, $596,000. Last Start: 3rd GIIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Next start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Pappacap got dethroned from the No. 1 ranking, but his third-place effort as the beaten favorite in Saturday's GIII Lecomte S. doesn't warrant a full-scale banishment from the upper crust of the crop. These winter stakes are, after all, preparatory efforts, and the wider view of Pappacap's career arc still portends well for getting 10 furlongs three-plus months from now. As usual, this always-engaged Gun Runner homebred broke without issue, then settled fifth at the fence, underscoring this colt has no confidence issues racing in a covered-up position at the rail. Jockey Joe Bravo let Pappacap cruise up under his own power between the six-furlong and half-mile poles to range within two lengths of pacemaking Epicenter (Not This Time). But by the far turn Pappacap was so seriously hemmed in that Bravo's commitment to the rail started to look like a liability rather than a ground-saving advantage. Epicenter drifted out under pressure, and while Pappacap leapt forward through the suddenly larger opening at the quarter pole, he didn't truly seize command. Pappacap gave Epicenter a stout run for his money from the three-sixteenths pole until 50 yards from the finish, where both were blindsided by a fresh 28-1 closer. “He fought all the way down the lane,” Bravo said. “Both [he and Epicenter] are special horses. They got into a fight and guess what happens? It set up for somebody else to run by both of us.”

3) CORNICHE (c, Quality Road–Wasted Tears, by Najran) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Speedway Stables LLC. B-Bart Evans & Stonehaven Steadings (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $385,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP; $1,500,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,262,000. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Corniche was an undefeatable front-running force who cuffed around his peers at age two up to 1 1/16 miles. But he has yet to begin serious training for his sophomore campaign, and the looming confrontation over trainer Bob Baffert's banishment from Churchill Downs coupled with the inability of his entrants to earn Derby qualifying points is casting an unwelcome shadow over this Quality Road colt's highly anticipated return. Corniche's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile wire job is the race that will almost certainly earn him divisional championship honors. But you have to consider the fortuitous circumstances that played in his favor prior to that race–namely, the vet scratch of the morning line favorite, fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher (Munnings), who was the only other pure speed threat in the Juvenile. In addition, it's worth noting that the GI Juvenile Fillies run two races earlier that day produced a same-distance final clocking .26 seconds faster than Corniche's performance. This colt's GI American Pharoah S. score Oct. 1 might have actually been a better, stronger effort–he led under constant pressure, swatted away two legit challengers on the turn, and that race yielded two next-out stakes winners, a MSW winner, plus the runner-up in the Juvenile.

4) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-1, $181,100. Last Start: 2nd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 6.

The Giant's Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare breeding line that anchors this colt's pedigree is only going to play into Classic Causeway's favor the deeper he advances on the Triple Crown path. Being a sharp breaker is also on his side, too, as the previous six Derby winners all either wired their fields or were second at the internal points of call. Yet this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper doesn't need to be in front to run well, and his concession of the lead from the one hole in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. shows that he can comfortably stalk inside. In that race Classic Causeway eventually escaped the rail in search of more room out in the clear, but he was out-kicked by a superior Smile Happy that November early evening under the lights at Churchill. He's three breezes back into his Palm Meadows training for a seasonal debut in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., a potentially “loaded” affair that could also lure several other contenders on this list.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Gulfstream MSW. Next Start: Aiming for a two-turn allowance spot. KY Derby Points: 0.

Emmanuel spiked a temperature that forced trainer Todd Pletcher to scratch him from a Jan. 7 two-turn allowance at Tampa, which was to be his second career start off a visually appealing one-turn-mile debut score at Gulfstream (by 6 3/4 lengths with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure). That's the type of a setback that doesn't mean as much on the Derby trail in early January as it might in, say, late March. This $350,000 KEESEP colt by More Than Ready has since posted two bullet half-mile breezes at Palm Beach Downs on consecutive Saturdays, and Pletcher affirmed to TDN on Saturday that he will “hopefully” find another allowance spot instead of attempting a stakes for this physically imposing colt's first two-turn try. One concern as Emmanuel approaches seven weeks between starts is that seven of the horses he beat back on Dec. 11 have already come back to race; six of them lost and the only winner was a dropdown into the maiden optional-claiming ranks. So the “Who'd he beat?” question might end up being legit moving forward into start number two.

6) GIANT GAME (Giant's Causeway–Game For More, More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-0-2, $242,400. Last Start: 3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Possible for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 4.

Giant Game's above-expectations third at 21-1 odds in the Breeders' Cup has a “deep end of the pool” appeal to it considering he shipped cross-country to square off against the best in his class in his first try outside the maiden ranks, then kicked on smartly while wide off the final turn. The effort was notable not so much for a massive breakthrough, but in terms of suggesting he could be a dangerous racehorse with seasoning at age three. We don't quite have much '22 form available yet to judge the progression of the horses he faced in the Juvenile (only three entrants have run back; all ran third in points-eligible Derby preps). But dig deeper to check out the two MSW races this $500,000 FTKSEL colt by Giant's Causeway competed in, and you'll see the makings of potential key races, as no fewer than a combined seven starters from both races (including Giant Game himself) returned to win next time out. This colt has built a base of five Gulfstream breezes in preparation for a possible start in the Holy Bull S., the last three of them five-eighths bullets.

7) COSTA TERRA (c, Gun Runner–Teardrop, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SP, 3-1-0-1, $57,900. Last Start: 5th GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: 0.

Costa Terra may be a chestnut, but he's my Derby “dark horse” at this early juncture of the season. This Gun Runner homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds has posted seven published breezes at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen after a three-race juvenile campaign that consisted of two Ellis Park performances that were much better than they looked followed by a wide fifth against two-turn Grade I company at Keeneland. Dam Teardrop is a half-sister to Pyro, who won two legs of the Fair Grounds Derby prep stakes in 2008 (he was eighth in the Kentucky Derby). Half-brother Pneumatic was a listed stakes winner who attempted (but was off the board) in 2020's nine-furlong GI Belmont S. and the GI Preakness S. for these same connections.

8) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $102,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Sham S. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The two-for-two, speed-centric Newgrange waited on horses before cresting into an unmatchable far-turn gear in the GIII Sham S., leaving the impression that despite a touch of greenness, this $125,000 KEESEP colt by Violence could be the type who's up for bigger and better challenges. Seven-time Derby winner Baffert has now won eight editions of the Sham, yet Authentic in 2020 was the only one of those Sham winners to also win the Derby (Medina Spirit was second in the '21 Sham and also won the Derby).

9) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $197,800. Last Start: 1st GII Remsen S. Next Start: Aiming for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

In this age of fewer starts for A-list horses, some sophomores–including highly heralded ones every year–get very deep into their Derby prep seasons without having been truly tested in a stretch fight. That won't be the case with Mo Donegal, who athletically tipped out past four frontrunners at the head of the lane before bumping and grinding through a :12.33 final furlong in the GII Remsen S. to prevail by a hard-fought nose. That was a much more impressive effort than it might appear considering this $250,000 KEESEP buy was facing winners for the first time while stretching out to the 1 1/8-mile distance. His MSW win at 1 1/16 miles was no slouch either, as Mo Donegal was roused from midpack to close an open-length gap late in the lane. Even his career debut–seemingly a throwout race on paper–was of the sneaky-good variety. Mo Donegal broke slowly from the rail in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, checked at the half-mile pole, was still double-digit lengths off the leaders turning for home, then rallied determinedly to snag third before galloping out past everyone after the wire.

10) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 4.

Trainer Chad Brown has favorably compared Zandon to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing; both colts won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was really cut out to be a sprinter. Stretching all the way out to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart stalked effectively behind a tepid pace, split horses in upper stretch, then had a visually impressive and roughly run throwdown/showdown with nose winner Mo Donegal. Earlier this month, Brown told TDN he was on the fence between what now appears to be a deep Holy Bull S. and the Risen Star S., which we learned this week will feature No. 1-ranked Smile Happy. Neither figure to be an easy spot, but Zandon could prove to be an overlooked entity at decent odds in either one of those stakes.

11) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-1-0. Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Epicenter won several internal battles within Saturday's Lecomte S., but he got pipped at the wire to just lose the overall war. The effort was strong enough to launch him into the Top 12. And yes, the two horses who ran second and third in the Lecomte are both ranked higher than the out-of-the-clouds winner, because these ratings try not to rely too heavily on who-beat-whom recency at the expense of the bigger picture. Epicenter established control by the time the field hit the first turn, and although he ran slower consecutive quarter miles on the front end at each call, he gets style points for turning back a wall of horses off the turn when he could have just as easily cracked under pressure. Epicenter repulsed the favorite, Pappacap, in a length-of-stretch fight, then galloped out stronger and longer than the unexpected long shot who rolled by him with mid-track momentum. The top two, separated by a head, shared 88 Beyer Speed Figures.

12) JACK CHRISTOPHER (c, Munnings–Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Jim Bakke, Gerald Isbister, Coolmore Stud & Peter M. Brant. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $145,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $135,000 ylg '20 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $330,000. Last Start: 1st GI Champagne S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Jack Christopher gets a little bit of a haircut in this week's rankings, dropping from No. 7 to No. 12, but that's a reflection of his inactivity rather than potential ability. This Munnings colt is recovering from a stress fracture discovered after he was scratched as the morning-line fave for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and although the GI Champagne S. victor rejoined trainer Brown in Florida earlier this month, he's yet to post a published workout. “He's going to be up against it, that's for sure,” Brown told TDN earlier this month when asked about making the Derby. “I don't want to rule anything out…but he's certainly behind. To get him to go a mile and a quarter I'm going to need to have something under his belt. We'll see where he takes us and if he doesn't make [the Derby] we have several other races we'd love to target with him.”

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Blasted home a $59 winner from well off the tailgate in Saturday's Lecomte. Trainer Keith Desormeaux said Risen Star S. is next for this four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA at KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR).

Early Voting (Gun Runner): This $200,000 KEESEP colt for trainer Brown broke his maiden in a one-turn mile and is being pointed for GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 5.

Major General (Constitution): The two-for-two winner of the Sept. 18 GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) is three breezes into his '22 comeback for trainer Pletcher, with early March preps on his radar.

Rattle N Roll (Connect): Saturday was the first breeze back for this 81-Beyer, 4 1/4 -length GI Breeders' Futurity S. victor ($55,000 KEENOV, $210,000 KEESEP). He then missed the Breeders' Cup with a foot abscess; could resurface in Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Reddam homebred a bit erratic through the long Los Al stretch, but prevailed in five-entrant GII Los Alamitos Futurity.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) goes back to dirt in Holy Bull S. on Feb. 5. He wired an off-grass mile MSW at Ellis Park last July.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 25 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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