Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats
The going is currently Good to Soft. This race is on the New Course, which places an extreme premium on stamina and the ability to jump fluently while under pressure on the final climb.
The 12-Year Trends: Stayers’ Hurdle
Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. Younger legs have historically outstayed the veterans.
Recent Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start.
Class: 11 of the last 12 winners had an Official Rating of 156 or higher.
Festival Pedigree: 10 of the last 12 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, with 8 having won or placed.
Betting: 8 of the last 10 winners were 12/1 or shorter in the betting.
Stayers’ Prep: The Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle and the Cleeve Hurdle remain the primary feeder races.
Runner Analysis & Order of Preference
1. Teahupoo (Age: 9 | NR: 168.4)
The Verdict: The 2024 winner and 2025 runner-up is the ultimate professional in this division. Despite being 9, he defies the age trend through sheer consistency. He comfortably beat Bob Olinger at Leopardstown in December and arrives fresh. He ticks the class (OR 163+), ground, and recent form boxes perfectly.
Trend Score: 9/10 (Age is the only minor negative).
2. Honesty Policy (Age: 6 | NR: 156.0)
The Verdict: The “trend pick” of the race. At age 6, he represents the profile of the classic improving stayer. He was a close third to Impose Toi at Ascot but has significant room for improvement over 3 miles. Being trained by Gordon Elliott adds further weight, given his recent record in the race.
Trend Score: 10/10
3. Kabral Du Mathan (Age: 6 | NR: 154.2)
The Verdict: An incredibly progressive type for Dan Skelton. He won the Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day with ease. While his rating (154) is just below the typical 156+ threshold, his “unexposed” nature makes him a dangerous contender. He meets the age and recent win trends.
Trend Score: 9/10
4. Bob Olinger (Age: 11 | NR: 163.0)
The Verdict: The defending champion. He is a Cheltenham legend with four wins at the track. However, at 11, he is trying to defy a massive historical trend; only two horses aged 10+ have won since 1986 (Sire Du Berlais and himself last year). His form is still top-tier, but the younger Elliott-trained pair may have more “toe” at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10
5. Ma Shantou (Age: 7 | NR: 154.0)
The Verdict: The winner of the Cleeve Hurdle over this course and distance. Winning the Cleeve is a massive trend positive (8 of the last 19 winners ran in it). He thrives on the New Course and is exactly the right age (7) to peak in this race.
Trend Score: 8/10
6. Impose Toi (Age: 8 | NR: 159.0)
The Verdict: Winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. He has the class (OR 159) and the stamina, but he was soundly beaten by Ma Shantou in the Cleeve Hurdle on softer ground. If the ground continues to dry toward “Good,” his chances increase significantly.
Trend Score: 7/10
7. Ballyburn (Age: 8 | NR: 160.0)
The Verdict: A fascinating addition for Willie Mullins. A former Baring Bingham winner who returns to hurdles after a mixed chasing campaign. While he has the class, he lacks a recent win (3rd last time out) and hasn’t yet proven he is a “grinding” 3-mile stayer at the highest level.
Trend Score: 6/10
8. Home By The Lee (Age: 11 | NR: 159.0)
The Verdict: A stalwart of the division who won at Gowran Park recently. However, he is aged 11 and has failed to win this in four previous attempts. He is a solid each-way player but unlikely to improve enough to beat the principles.
Trend Score: 5/10
Final Selection Summary
1. Teahupoo (The Class Master)
2. Honesty Policy (The Improving Youngster)
3. Kabral Du Mathan (The Progressive Threat)
4. Ma Shantou (The Course Specialist)
