not this time | Horse Racing Free Tips

Antonio Sano Readying Pair Of Promising 2-Year-Olds For Saratoga Meet

Trainer Antonio Sano started making plans for the upcoming Saratoga Race Course meet after saddling his fourth 2-year-old winner of the Spring Meet at Gulfstream Park Saturday.

The popular Venezuela native has been particularly impressed with Papetu, a five-length winner in his Saturday debut, and Hara, a filly who also graduated with a five-length victory Friday.

“The two horses are the best horses in my barn,” said Sano, who has saddled 21 winners, five fewer than leading trainer Todd Pletcher, during the Spring Meet. “I'm going to send Papetu and Hara to Saratoga.”

Papetu was always in control over his nine rivals under Leonel Reyes. Purchased by Magic Stables LLC for $80,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September sale, Papetu is by Dialed In, the sire of Sano-trained multiple graded-stakes winner Gunnevera. The first-out win hardly surprised his trainer, but the manner in which he dismissed his rivals was a bit of a revelation.

“I expected him to come from behind and close. The race came up different. It was a surprise to me,” Sano said. “He is a good horse. I told the owner that this was a very good horse.”

A day earlier, Sano sent out Hara, who scored a dominating front-running triumph in a 5 ½-furlong dash for fillies. The daughter of Hard Spun, who is owned by Briannjenn Racing LLC, was purchased for $30,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September sale.

Sano has enjoyed success in the past while sending promising 2-year-olds from South Florida to Saratoga, most notably with Gunnevera, who scored his first graded-stakes victory in the 2016 Saratoga Special (G2) on his way to earning $5.5 million.

Earlier in the meet, Sano saddled Swaggy George, a son of Not This Time, for a four-length triumph in a five-furlong maiden special weight race taken off the turf. The Sano-trained Espia, a son of Creative Cause who finished third behind Swaggy George, came right back to capture a 5-furlong maiden special weight event on turf.

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Taking Stock: Race Records and Stallion Prospects

Sackatoga Stable’s Tiz the Law (Constitution) was a Grade l winner at two, won the Grade l Florida Derby this year, and goes for the first Classic of the season as the favorite in the Gl Belmont S. on Saturday. His breeding rights have been tied up for months, and if he does nothing from here on in–highly unlikely as that is–he’ll still have a place at stud at a prominent farm.

Tiz the Law’s racetrack future is bright. After the Belmont, he’ll likely contest the Gl Travers at Saratoga in August ahead of the Gl Kentucky Derby in September and the Gl Preakness in October, and a win in one or more of those races will only burnish his resume and take him to another level as a stallion prospect.

Classic winners who were also highest-level winners at two are the most sought-after types in the breeding shed among both owner-breeders and commercial breeders, and at this moment Tiz the Law is perhaps the only colt of his generation with a legitimate chance to attain that status.

Godolphin’s Maxfield (Street Sense) was another Grade l-winning juvenile like Tiz the Law who had a chance to become a Classic winner this year, but following a comeback win in the Glll Matt Winn S. at Churchill Downs last month, he suffered a fracture in his first breeze back and it appears likely his career is over. If he’s done racing, his record will stand at three wins from three starts, including a top-level win in the GI Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his second start, and he’ll probably go to stud at Darley, Godolphin’s breeding arm, where his sire stands.

Nadal didn’t win a Grade l race at two, but he was undefeated in his four career starts, including the GI Arkansas Derby, and was a leading contender for the Classics before he suffered a career-ending fracture in a workout, too. One of his owners, George Bolton, has said he’ll go to stud next year, though where that may be hasn’t been announced yet.

Fragile Horses
Victoria Keith, who’s affiliated with Fox Hill Farm, tweeted on June 10: “At some point, racing may want to address the fragility of the breed. Several top 3yos out with injury, Maxfield the latest, who’s had 2 bone injuries in 3 starts.”

She followed that tweet with this one: “Where are the soundness stats? In an industry full of handicapping, nick, and other data, shouldn’t owners and breeders be equipped with soundness data when they make their breeding and buying decisions?”

Keith certainly raises some legitimate questions, something Fox Hill dealt with after the death of the stable’s Eight Belles (Unbridled’s Song) in the Kentucky Derby gallop-out. In fact, it’s an issue that’s been addressed since the beginnings of the sport, and you can throw a dart into any time frame since and find commentary on the issue from various angles. In the Nov. 13, 1961, issue of Sports Illustrated, for example, Whitney Tower, writing about some racetrack injuries, referenced this quote from the Chronicle of the Horse: “Far more important has been the long established practice of breeders to put to stud any animal which will transmit speed, no matter what its shortcomings in other respects. Thus, there have crept into the Thoroughbred breed various types of inherited unsoundness–crooked legs, round ankles, bad knees, shelly feet, curby hocks, soft and brittle bones.”

In 1961, there were far more owner-breeders in the sport who raced the horses they bred, but nowadays, especially in Kentucky, commercial breeders dominate the landscape, and because they frequently use first-crop sires as an investment strategy, there isn’t any “soundness data” on the offspring of these horses on which to base mating or buying decisions, except for their own race records.

And race records are sometimes unreliable guides to future sire performance. Raise a Native (Native Dancer) and Northern Dancer (Nearctic) were both foaled in 1961. The latter won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and went on to a fabulous stud career that is still profound to this day. But the former, a brilliantly fast and undefeated black-type winner who made only four starts at two before bowing a tendon, has been just as influential, particularly as the sire of Mr. Prospector.

Northern Dancer sired his version of Raise a Native in Danzig, a foal of 1977 who won each of his three starts–none in stakes company–before a bum knee stopped him. Contrast him to Temperence Hill (Stop the Music), the champion 3-year-old colt of their crop in 1980 and the winner of the Belmont S. who made 31 starts. As a stallion, Temperence Hill sired sound stock, getting 83% starters to foals, but he got only 4% black-type winners to foals. Danzig, on the other hand, gave up some soundness, at 77% starters to foals, but sired better horses, with 18% black-type winners.

Nureyev (Northern Dancer), like Danzig, also made only three starts, finishing first in all of them, but he was disqualified from the G1 2000 Guineas and officially had only Group 3 credit next to his name, though he was also named a champion French miler. He, too, became a world-class sire, getting 81% starters to foals and 17% black-type winners. His name has already been peppered throughout the pedigrees of several European Classic and Group 1 winners so far this season. Claiborne stood Danzig but bred Nureyev, whose homebred dam, Special, raced only once, finishing unplaced, because she was a bleeder.

Claiborne also bred and stood Drone (Sir Gaylord), who broke down after four wins from four starts–none in stakes company. A foal of 1966, Drone sired 80% starters from foals and 9% black type winners. He’s been an influential broodmare sire. More recently, Claiborne stands Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}), a Grade I winner at two and undefeated in four starts. His career, like those of Nadal and Maxfield, was cut short by a condylar fracture. His stud services have been highly sought despite a limited career.

Not This Time
On the same day–June 10–that Maxfield’s injury was announced and Keith tweeted her concerns for the “fragility of the breed,” Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), a first-crop sire who made four lifetime starts and won one Grade lll race, was represented by the session and eventual sales topper at the OBS Spring sale. Hip 1254, a filly out of Sheza Smoke Show who’d worked the fastest quarter-mile at the sale in :20 1/5, brought $1,350,000 from Gary Young. The next-highest price that day was the $800,000 that D.J. Stable paid for a Candy Ride (Arg) colt (Hip 561) who’d worked a furlong in :10 1/5.

Not This Time sustained a soft tissue injury and he never raced after two. Candy Ride, likewise, had a career-ending soft tissue injury when he was four and was plagued by foot problems throughout his career, which lasted for all of six starts–the same as Pulpit and his son Tapit. He was undefeated in three starts in Argentina and three in the U.S., and he was a Grade l winner on two continents. He’s since become a premier stallion and has sired such as Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who came into his own as an older horse, and Mastery, an outstanding 2-year-old.

Not This Time, who stands at Taylor Made and entered stud for a $15,000 fee, has not put off buyers with his abbreviated race record. Aside from the sale topper, the horse was represented at OBS with lots that made $700,000 and $575,000 as well. It’s also notable that WinStar’s Speightster (Speightstown), a homebred who entered stud for a $10,000 fee and also has first-crop runners, had the third-highest price at OBS, a colt who sold for $1.1 million. Speightster won three of four starts, his only stakes win a Grade lll race.

Both Speightster and Not This Time are just beginning their careers and are represented by winners from limited opportunities available this year. They have a long way to go to become recognized as successful sires, but their early results have already earned them the support of horsemen in the sales ring. And they are exactly the types of horses, along with the Masterys, Nadals, and Maxfields, that Keith questions as stud prospects and that Whitney Tower’s article from almost 60 years ago addressed, but it’s from this pool of types with abbreviated race records that have also sprung breed-shaping horses like Raise a Native, Danzig, and Nureyev.

In short, it’s difficult to predict sire success from a race record alone. And if it turns out, years from now, that Maxfield becomes a better sire than Tiz the Law or any of his other contemporaries who carve out longer careers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone with a knowledge of history.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Mark Taylor Joins TDN Writers’ Room to Talk Sale Market, Not This Time

As the sale season finally restarts, Taylor Made vice president Mark Taylor joined the TDN Writers’ Room presented by Keeneland this week to discuss where he sees the market going from here, the early success of Taylor Made stallion Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) and a host of other hot-button industry issues.

Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week on the heels of OBS Spring, Taylor said, “I don’t see any scenario where the market’s not going to be off from 2019. I think just [with] everything that we’ve been through, it’s just too much to overcome not to expect some decline. I was actually relieved a little bit from the OBS results. I thought that it could have been worse … With the high volume of horses they have there, you really rely on a lot of those foreign buyers that come in to pick up a lot of those horses. And with some travel restrictions, logistical problems, and just fear factor, I think the participation from those groups was noticeably down. And that’s really a struggle. We need those buyers.”

Taylor Made Stallions has been the early winner of the freshman sire race with 2016 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Not This Time being represented by several impressive maiden breakers and the topper at OBS Spring when a filly from his first crop sold for $1.35 million.

“It was fantastic,” Taylor said. “When you’re in the stallion game, that’s what really breathes hope into your whole organization. When you can get a horse that’s starting to gain momentum and you think there’s a lot of blue sky there … He had really elite level talent. And now his babies are showing that they can run. But still, we’re in the first four miles of a marathon. So we’re just hoping that it keeps going.”

Elsewhere in the show, the crew previewed Saturday’s GI Belmont S. card and the action at Royal Ascot and, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, had a spirited debate about the new whip restrictions introduced in California and Kentucky. Click here to watch the podcast on Vimeo and click here for the audio-only version.

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Not This Time, Speightster Join Exclusive Club With Seven-Figure Juveniles

The reconfigured racing and auction calendar has allowed freshman sires to emerge simultaneously as leaders on the racetrack and in the auction ring, and the two stallions who have best grasped the opportunity in the early stages of 2020 are Not This Time and Speightster.

Both sires are already off the mark with their first winners, and they each stepped out on the commercial stage to have seven-figure juveniles from their respective first crops at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

Not This Time, a Grade 3-winning son of Giant's Causeway, had the sale-topper when Gary Young signed on a filly for $1.35 million. Speightster, a Grade 3 winner by Speightstown, jumped in during the auction's final offerings when Christina Jelm, bidding on behalf of Larry Best's OXO Equine, bought a colt for $1.1 million.

Not This Time and Speightster became the 19th and 20th North American stallions to knock down a seven-figure offering in their first crops of 2-year-olds since 2000, joining a group that also includes Hennessy, Stormy Atlantic, Sea of Secrets, Stephen Got Even, Fusaichi Pegasus, Dixie Union, Tiznow, Songandaprayer, Exchange Rate, Red Bullet, Johannesburg, Vindication, Mineshaft, Speightstown, Big Brown, Orb, Liam's Map, and American Pharoah.

However, getting over the million-dollar mark in that initial crop is no guarantee of short-term or long-term success at stud, with each member of the club's lot in life varying wildly from their common flashpoint.

For this analysis, we'll take a look at how the first 18 sires in the club – the “Group of 18,” for simplicity's sake – progressed at three different key points in their careers.

First, we'll see how their seven-figure auction horse fared to gauge immediate success. Then, we'll see how each stallion ranked among their respective freshman sire classes. Finally, we'll take a look at the big picture, and see how the group has performed throughout the course of their stallion careers.

In The Short Term – The Seven-Figure Sale Grads

The pressure on a seven-figure juvenile to perform on the racetrack is intense enough without adding the magnifying glass of having to help prove his or her freshman sire's credentials, to boot. No single runner can define a stallion's resume, but a seven-figure auction grad naturally becomes a billboard for what the market deems as the best that stallion has to offer.

None of the first-crop seven-figure juveniles by the “Group of 18” successfully paid for themselves on the racetrack, and their average earnings are just over $200,000. However, several of them carved out solid resumes in competition, which led to successful careers in the breeding shed.

The two gold standards in this regard are Munnings, the first seven-figure juvenile for Speightstown; and Harmony Lodge, who carried the banner for Hennessy.

After breezing an eighth in :10 flat at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder Selected 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale, Munnings sold to the Coolmore partnership for $1.7 million, the second-highest price of the sale. He'd go on to make $742,640 at the races, highlighted by victories in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes, Tom Fool Handicap, and Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes. He now resides at Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky., where he nears a decade of service as one of the farm's most reliable stallions.

Harmony Lodge sold to Eugene Melnyk for $1.65 million at the 2000 Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale, and she'd go on to earn more than any other horse in the seven-figure freshman juveniles club, at $851,120. Her five graded stakes wins over five seasons of racing include the Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap, making her the group's only Grade 1 winner. She then went on to become a highly productive broodmare, with her progeny to date including Grade 3 winner Stratford Hill and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Armistice Day.

The most active horse of the group was Maltese Tiger, from the first crop of WinStar Farm's Tiznow, who raced 34 times, primarily in the claiming ranks at Turf Paradise and Emerald Downs. He won 10 times and finished second in another 13 races to earn $95,017.

His is one of the more curious paths among the group. After bringing $1 million at the 2005 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, Maltese Tiger debuted as a 5-year-old at Turf Paradise for a $30,000 claiming tag, and finished an unclaimed second. He'd run to age nine, and after finishing his career at Les Bois Park, he became a sport horse.

In total, seven of the millionaires by the incumbent “Group of 18” were graded stakes winners. Two are unraced, though Manilenyo, an American Pharoah colt secured by Coolmore for $1.65 million at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, is still in the midst of his 3-year-old season and has time to build his resume.

In The Mid-Term: The Freshman Sire Race

The performance of a sire's first crop in their 2-year-old season can define the trajectory of an entire stud career. A quick start can set a horse up for life, while a slow starter can lose the attention of mare owners, and potentially be moved to a secondary market by impatient farms.

With that in mind, the “Group of 18” finished all over the board in the freshman sire standings during their respective seasons, and where they finished in their rookie years was no guarantee of their long-term prospects.

For Not This Time and Speightster, the ideal roadmap for the remainder of the year probably looks like the one Johannesburg took in 2006.

Johannesburg saw La Traviata go to the Coolmore partnership for $1.1 million at that year's Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, and the filly was on the frontlines for her sire's near-sweep of the freshman standings. The stallion ended the year first among rookie sires by runners, winners, stakes winners, and graded stakes winners, and second by earnings, helped greatly by Scat Daddy's wins in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Sanford Stakes. La Traviata contributed to the equation with a score in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes.

Johannesburg had seven total stakes winners in his freshman season, which was the most among the “Group of 18,” and one better than Fusaichi Pegasus. His three graded winners tied with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah for the most in the group, as well.

Among the “Group of 18,” if Johannesburg did not claim the top spot in a significant freshman category, he finished second to Ashford Stud's American Pharoah.

The son of Pioneerof the Nile became the second sire in the group to have a Breeders' Cup winner among his freshman-sired runners, when Four Wheel Drive took last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He joined Tiznow, who had Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies.

American Pharoah was part of a deep and diverse freshman class last year, but the fervor surrounding his historic Triple Crown win brought in a high volume of mares to his first book, and in turn put a high volume of runners on the track. He led the freshman class of 2019 by runners, winners, and earnings, and he was second by stakes winners (four) and graded winners (three).

Among the “Group of 18,” his 72 runners and 27 winners were the most in the club during their respective freshman seasons, and his progeny earnings of $2,703,916 was nearly $1 million ahead of second-place Johannesburg.

Also of note, Tiznow was the only group member with an Eclipse Award winner in his freshman season, with Breeders' Cup winner Folklore also taking home champion 2-year-old filly honors.

What's especially interesting about this snapshot of the group is who performed poorly.

Mineshaft entered stud at Lane's End in 2004 off a Horse of the Year campaign a season earlier, and the commercial interest made itself clear when B. Wayne Hughes went to $1.75 million for Patricia's Gem at 2007 Keeneland April 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

However, Mineshaft mustered just nine winners from his freshman crop, ranking him 25th in his class. His runners made $311,830, good for 17th. He had one overall stakes winner, and no graded winners. Patricia's Gem went on to become a Grade 1-placed runner in later seasons, but she was winless at two.

Stephen Got Even, who also stood at Lane's End, also failed to get off the mark early after Dubai Dreamer sold to Godolphin for $3.1 million at the 2004 Calder sale. He finished his first year with seven winners (32nd in his freshman class), no stakes winners, and $317,857 in progeny earnings (26th among freshmen and second-least among the “Group of 18”).

As will be seen in the next section, Lane's End was rewarded for its patience with both stallions after their first youngsters didn't keep pace with the lofty juvenile sale prices. Stephen Got Even stood 15 seasons at Lane's End until his pensioning at the end of 2015, and he is buried on the farm. Mineshaft is wrapping up his 17th season at stud, and has become a prolific source for classic runners.

In The Long-Term: The Full Career

The most important question for any sire that starts fast in the commercial arena is whether they can sustain that early momentum over the course of their stud career. Like the first two touchstones, there is no clear-cut trail among the “Group of 18,” but the outcomes are generally more positive than negative.

The stallion with arguably the most complete resume after getting a seven-figure juvenile at auction from his first crop is Tiznow.

Not only is the son of Cee's Tizzy the only member of the “Group of 18” to chalk up both an Eclipse Award winner (Folklore) and a classic winner (Da'Tara in the 2008 Belmont Stakes), he leads all sires in the group by progeny starts in Triple Crown races (14) and his two Breeders' Cup victories (Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies and Tourist in the 2016 Mile) ties him for first with Speightstown and Stormy Atlantic.

Speightstown, a fellow WinStar Farm resident, has also fared well in his stud career, leading this group by Breeders' Cup starts by a wide margin, with 32, including 2016 Dirt Mile winner Tamarkuz and 2019 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing. He also leads the group by earnings with $111,713,652, which is especially impressive considering the stallion has never had a starter in a Triple Crown race.

After a quiet start in his freshman season, Mineshaft has compiled one of the more impressive resumes in the group, especially in regards to classic starts. The 12 appearances by Mineshaft offspring ranks him a close second behind Tiznow, and he is one of just seven in the group with a Breeders' Cup winner.

Vindication, Dixie Union, and Hennessy saw their careers cut short by early deaths. Dixie Union in particular made the most of his abbreviated time at stud, with 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags making his sire one of just two in the group with a U.S. classic winner.

Four sires have gotten Eclipse Award winners, and fittingly, three of them were for 2-year-olds. In addition to Folklore bringing home the hardware for Tiznow, Johannesburg snagged champion juvenile male honors for Hennessy in 2001, and Stevie Wonderboy earned the same title for Stephen Got Even in 2005. Stormy Atlantic is the outlier in the group, with Stormy Liberal winning the champion turf male title in 2018.

Two sires in the “Group of 18” sired future group members themselves. Hennessy is the sire of champion juvenile Johannesburg, while Speightstown brought in the 20th member, Speightster.

The Kentucky stallion market can be quick to relocate a stallion if they underperform, but this group has done an admirable job sticking around. As the 2020 breeding season draws to a close, 11 of the 18 veteran members have spent their entire Northern Hemisphere stallion careers in Kentucky. Meanwhile, Stormy Atlantic and Exchange Rate moved to Kentucky early in their stud careers, after their first crops started fast when they were Florida residents.

On the other side of the coin, the title for the least successful member of the “Group of 18” by lifetime achievement likely falls to Sea of Secrets.

The stallion gained plenty of buzz when his colt Diamond Fury sold for a then-world record $2.7 million at the 2003 Barretts March Sale, but Sea of Secrets never found his footing at the highest level of competition. After standing his first five seasons at Walmac Farm in Lexington, Ky., he was moved to California, where he remained for the rest of his career.

Though he became a respectable sire in his new home state, Sea of Secrets' three graded stakes winners was the least among the group members with 10 or more crops of racing age, and American Pharoah matched the feat in his freshman season alone.

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