Epicenter Back to Work, Targeting Summer Campaign at Saratoga

Epicenter (Not This Time), a too-good-to-be-second as the favorite in both the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S., has begun gearing up for a summer campaign at Saratoga.

The Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC colorbearer worked four furlongs in an easy :50.60 (31/37) at Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen's Churchill Downs base June 20, just his second move since rallying for runner-up honors in the middle leg of the Triple Crown.

“He's like a machine,” said David Fiske, longtime advisor to the Winchell family. “He took a few weeks off after the Preakness and now he's gotten a couple of slow half-miles in. We're trying to get him cranked up for the [GII] Jim Dandy S. [July 30] and then the [GI Runhappy] Travers [S. Aug. 27].”

Fiske continued, “Nobody's lost any confidence in him. He's still the same horse he ever was. Still acts the same, travels the same, trains the same… He is a professional racehorse.”

The 'Mid-Summer Derby' could also be a potential landing spot for Kentucky Derby upsetter Rich Strike (Keen Ice), Preakness winner Early Voting (Gun Runner) and GI Belmont S. hero Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo).

After getting first run into a supersonic early pace and enjoying a clear lead in the stretch, Epicenter came up a valiant 3/4 of a length short behind the second-longest shot in Kentucky Derby history.

Steadied and squeezed in the early stages two weeks later in Baltimore, the $260,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase was left way too much to do, rallying smartly from eighth to finish 1 1/4 lengths shy of the forwardly placed Early Voting.

Epicenter's resume also includes wins in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, GII Risen Star S. and Gun Runner S.

“It's just the way it shook out–he was an unfortunate victim of circumstance in both the Derby and Preakness,” Fiske said. “Everybody is still pretty fired up about him. It will be exciting to get him back going again.”

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Taking Stock: It’s High Time for This Stallion

The Classic season is over. A surface reading shows that Arrogate (Unbridled's Song), Keen Ice (Curlin), and Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) got the GI Kentucky Oaks, GI Kentucky Derby, and GI Preakness S. winners, respectively, from their first crops, and proven star sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), who had a Derby winner from his first crop in 2016, sired the GI Belmont S. winner. Sometimes, however, what's between the lines is as important as what's on the page, and Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway), whose second-crop sons Epicenter and Simplification were major players in the run-up to the Classics and in the Derby and Preakness themselves, occupied that white space this season.

Epicenter, who won two Grade II Derby preps at Fair Grounds–the Risen Star S. and the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby–was sent off as the Derby favorite and finished an admirable second. He returned in the Preakness as the race favorite and again finished second, this time with trouble and a ride that gave him way too much to do.

Simplification won the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream and was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby. He was also in the Derby, finishing fourth, a neck ahead of subsequent Belmont S. winner Mo Donegal.

These two, both from Candy Ride mares, were joined by two other Not This Time 3-year-olds vying for spots in the Classics. In Due Time was second to Simplification in the Fountain of Youth, over Howling Time in ninth, who bounced back to finish second by a scant nose to Cyberknife (Gun Runner), the GI Arkansas Derby winner, in the GIII Matt Winn S. at Churchill a day after the Belmont S.

All told, Not This Time, with his oldest foals just four, is represented by 18 black-type winners, including two Grade I winners–the filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S. at Keeneland a month before the Derby, and Princess Noor was a top-level winner at two in 2020. Seven of the 18 are graded stakes winners.

This is an impressive haul for the half-brother to Lane's End's Liam's Map, more so because they were all conceived on a $15,000 stud fee. It's only the last two seasons that his stud fee has risen, to $40,000 (2021), $45,000 (the early part of this year), and $75,000 (later part of this year). The mares bred to him at higher fees will no doubt include some significantly better producers and racetrack performers than those covered his first four years, and they will include some mares Taylor Made has specifically handpicked for him by pedigree analysis. All of this is certain to elevate the stallion's stakes production in the coming years.

The broodmare sires of his seven graded winners are respectable enough, with dams by Candy Ride (two), Tapit, Speightstown, Smart Strike, Cape Town, and Wilko. However, the modest last sales prices of these mares tell the real story: stakes-placed Simply Confection (Candy Ride) sold for $80,000, in foal to Not This Time; Silent Candy (Candy Ride), a Grade III-placed stakes winner, made $130,000, in foal to Scat Daddy; non-winner Delightful Melody (Tapit) was a $65,000 RNA, in foal to Flameaway; Ida Clark (Speightstown), a winner of $25,580, sold for $60,000, in foal to Outwork; unraced Smart Jilly (Smart Strike) was a $70,000 2-year-old; unraced Running Creek (Cape Town) sold for $35,000, in foal to Latent Heat; and Grade III winner Sheza Smoke Show (Wilko) sold for $185,000, in foal to Not This Time.
The first graded winner for each of these mares was by Not This Time. In some cases, they were bred to high-class stallions before producing their graded winners.

Silent Candy, the dam of Epicenter, had an unraced colt by More Than Ready and a winner of $34,404 by Scat Daddy; Running Creek, the dam of Grade III winner Easy Time, had a Twirling Candy winner of $57,410 and a Pioneerof the Nile winner of $48,896; and Sheza Smoke Show, the dam of Princess Noor, had a Malibu Moon winner of $28,056, and an unraced Liam's Map.

Not This Time only raced at two, and he made just four starts, winning twice. However, he won the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill by 8 3/4 lengths and next out was a neck second to Classic Empire in the GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, 7 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Practical Joke. Classic Empire would go on to win the Arkansas Derby and Practical Joke the GI H. Allen Jerkens S. at Saratoga, so his form was obviously of the highest order and there's no telling what he might have accomplished had injury not ended his career. His half-brother Liam's Map was a multiple Grade I winner.

Not This Time entered stud at three and is an outstanding physical specimen, big and tall, and he made an impression with breeders right away by getting good-looking foals. Buyers responded in the sales ring, paying an average price of $76,833 for the 18 weanlings from his first crop that sold in 2018, with seven making $100,000 or more. From then on, he's been something of a sales sensation across the board vis a vis stud fee. Princess Noor, for example, made $1.35 million as a 2-year-old at OBS April in 2020.
In his case, looks translated to performance.

Black-type percentages

That Not This Time has already sired 18 black-type winners is impressive as it is on face value alone, but it's even more so as a percentage of named foals. These days, with popular stallions routinely covering more than 100 mares each year, a good stallion can be expected to get 5% black-type winners to foals, and for young horses with fewer crops racing, the percentages are even lower.

War Front leads all established Kentucky stallions with a ratio of 11.23%, followed by Tapit at 9.86%, Speightstown 9.77%, Into Mischief 8.56%, Medaglia d'Oro 8.36%, Curlin 8.29%, and Ghostzapper 7.89%.

Not This Time is next on the list behind Ghostzapper at 7.47%, ahead of Munnings at 7.15%, Quality Road 7.13%, Uncle Mo 6.95%, Constitution 6.80%, More Than Ready 6.73%, and Street Sense 6.67%.

You get the picture. Not This Time is right up there in the production of black-type winners with the best in the country, and he's the youngest of this group.

Among his own cohort, he's the leading third-crop sire, ahead of Laoban at 5.71%, Upstart at 4.07%, Hit It a Bomb 3.95%, Nyquist 3.18%, and Runhappy 3.04%.

Not This Time's first crop came to the races in the COVID year of 2020 when racing, as life, was disrupted, but there were clues then–at least by August, when I wrote here “Not This Time Leads Freshman Sires“–that he was going to be more than a flash in the pan. He was getting quality maiden special winners then and performing far above his stud-fee level, and that impression has turned into reality.

A stallion that can move up his mares to graded and listed levels–not to mention Classics contenders–at a $15,000 fee is one that can better withstand the drops in book quality from years two to four, and we're seeing this year that his second crop headed by Epicenter and the others noted is highly effective.

He is the real deal.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Got It Made Tops Fasig’s June Digital Selected Sale

Got It Made (Uncle Mo) (Hip 6), offered in foal to Not This Time, topped Fasig-Tipton's June Digital Selected Sale, which closed Thursday afternoon. Consigned by Rosilyn Polan of Sunday Morning Farm, the 5-year-old mare brought $145,000 from David Anderson's Anderson Farms. She hails from the family of MGISW Cavorting (Bernardini), dam of GISW Clairiere (Curlin).

Buyers may still make offers on horses that failed to meet their reserve by visiting the sale page and then clicking “Make Offer” next to the horse they are interested in purchasing. Offers are currently being accepted on the 2-year-old half-sister to undefeated Grade I winner Jack Christopher (Munnings), among others.

Dates for the next digital sale, which will take place in August, will be announced in the coming weeks. Selected horses of racing age and breeding stock will be offered on-site in Lexington, Kentucky, on July 11 at the July Selected Horses of All Ages sale.

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Preakness Full Circle Moments

BALTIMORE, MD–Every year, a new batch of sophomores converges upon Pimlico Race Course. And while the names of the contenders is ever changing, the people behind them are remain fairly consistent. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas casts a very long shadow in the second jewel in the Triple Crown, having won it on six prior occasions. From his first Preakness victory with Codex in 1980, Lukas has gone on to add wins with Tank's Prospect (1985), Tabasco Cat (1994), Timber Country (1995), Charismatic (1999) and Oxbow (2013).

One more win would put him on even terms with R. Wydham Walden and Bob Baffert, who each hold the record with seven Preakness titles. Coincidentally, Lukas's chance to tie Baffert with a record seventh win comes in the form of Secret Oath, a daughter of the late Arrogate, who was trained by Baffert. A homebred for Briland Farm, the chestnut is out of MSW and MGISP Absinthe Minded (Quiet American), who was also conditioned by Lukas. A winner of two of four starts at two, Secret Oath aired at Oaklawn in her first two starts at three, including the Feb. 26 GIII Honeybee S. before finishing a troubled-trip third in the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 2.

“We didn't get a smooth trip, which we needed in a race of that caliber,” he said. “We also had some questionable decisions being made as the race unfolded. Those two things in combination probably cost her the race. I thought she was clearly the best horse in the race.”

Sent off at 4-1 in a salty renewal of the May 6 GI Kentucky Oaks that included champion juvenile filly Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) and GISW Nest (Curlin), Secret Oath drew off to win by a definitive two-length margin over Nest, with the champion back in fourth.

Lukas continued, “[The Arkansas Derby] didn't work out very well for us, but we had a five-week window [to the Oaks] and that just came together. Now, we're looking at a two-week window.”

“The Oaks was a tell-tale race for us,” said Lukas. “We never considered the Kentucky Derby when we ran against the colts in Arkansas, but we kind of had the Preakness on the radar.”

Following a similar approach to previous Preakness incursions, Lukas's three-horse contingent of Secret Oath and Ethereal Road (Quality Road) (and the barn pony Riff) arrived from the Churchill Downs base of operations following a 12-hour ride on a luxury equine transport.

However, despite the travel and activity since her arrival in Baltimore, the filly appears to have taken everything in stride.

“She's very professional,” affirmed Lukas. “She's gotten into a rhythm here with all the excitement and the media and it can be very disruptive to a horse, but she has handled that very well.”

“I think she's probably as good or maybe even a bit better than she was going into the Kentucky Oaks. I'd like to see her run the same race as she ran in the Oaks. Pick them off down the back side, be in contention at the top of the stretch and run right by them.”

Looking to stand in Lukas's way Saturday is Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter (Not This Time), trained by Steve Asmussen. Adding an unexpected twist to the Triple Crown plot, the 4-1 Derby favorite was stymied by longshot winner Rick Strike (Keen Ice), who drew in off the also-eligible list following the scratch of Lukas's Ethereal Road on the eve of the race. And while the 11th-hour change up made for added drama and good press, it didn't really work out that well for Asmussen.

However, Asmussen proved philosophical about the Lukas scratch that ultimately dashed his Derby aspirations.

“Wayne is a very special person in racing,” said Asmussen, who is a two-time Preakness winner with Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. “He's beyond iconic. Everything he has accomplished and continues to. It's a lot to go up against. He's inspirational.”

Victorious in last season's Gun Runner S., Epicenter finished runner-up in the Jan. 22 Lecomte S. at the Fair Grounds before bouncing back to score in the Feb. 19 GII Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby Mar. 26.

Despite the last-out defeat, the colt's owner Ron Winchell remains upbeat about the colt's chances in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

“I don't think the confidence level [in him has] changed, he ran a great race [in the Derby],” he said. “If he shows up and runs, we should be in great shape.”

Asked how he'd like to see things unfold Saturday, Winchell explained, “He's a very versatile horse. I anticipate we'll sit off the pace. I didn't think there is a different strategy. That's the nice thing about bringing a type of horse that has options. And he's got options.”

In contrast, when asked where he wants to see his charge in the race, Asmussen quipped, “In front at the wire. We handled everything else last time, how about we just worry about the wire.”

Representing the X-factor in this season's Preakness is Fern Circle Stables, Black Racing and Magdalena Racing's Creative Minister (Creative Cause). The grey, who was supplemented to the race for $150,000, is trained by Kenny McPeek,  who earned his sole Preakness victory with a filly, Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil), in the pandemic-postponed 2020 renewal.

The lightly raced colt was runner-up in his Gulfstream debut going seven panels in March and appeared to appreciate the step up to 1 1/16-miles for his Keeneland graduation Apr. 9. He handled the latest question with aplomb, taking a Churchill optional claimer May 7.

“What is it Wayne Gretzky said? 'You never make a shot you don't take,'” he said. “I've taken a couple of them and hit it, between [2002 Belmont winner] Sarava and Swiss.”

He continued, “Look, that's the fun of the sport. It's great being involved in these kinds of things. If you feel like you've got a legitimate chance to just hit the board, you can't be scared, because a lot happens.”

Also trying to repeat past exploits, trainer Chad Brown tries to add another Preakness title with Klaravich Stables' Early Voting (Gun Runner). The winner of his first two starts at Aqueduct, including an emphatic win in the GIII Withers S., the dark bay was caught late by Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), finishing a neck back in second in the Apr. 9 GII Wood Memorial S.

In addition to Epicenter, Taylor Made Stallions' Not This Time is also represented by GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification. Third in the Apr. 2 GI Florida Derby, the Antonio Sano trainee finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

“In the Florida Derby, he was too close to the pace,” explained Sano. “In the [Kentucky] Derby, I wanted him to relax, but he was too far back.”

John Velazquez takes over riding duties from Jose Ortiz, who sticks with Early Voting.

Calumet Farm's Happy Jack (Oxbow) will try to give his sire the Preakness double. In another connection between competitors, the Calumet stallion won the 2013 edition of the Preakness under the guidance of Lukas. A debut winner at Santa Anita in January, the bay later finished third in GII San Felipe S. and GI Santa Anita Derby before coming home in 14th in the Derby.

“He is fit and he is ready,” said Doug O'Neill, who previously won with I'll Have Another in 2012. “He is an ideal candidate to run back in two weeks. If you have a strong individual, it can be a real easy jump going from the Derby to the Preakness. I think he looks phenomenal. He was bucking and playing and walking the shed row Thursday afternoon and showed good energy on the track [Friday]. He seems like he is the best version of Happy Jack right now.”

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