The Week in Review: Numbers Don’t Lie, But They Can Be Perplexing

If you like to sift through numbers, a few stand out from Saturday's GI Runhappy Travers S. card at Saratoga Race Course.

How about six Grade I stakes, whose winners all earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures? They weren't big-figure blowouts either. Five of those ultra-competitive races were decided by a half-length or less at the wire.

Nine winning favorites from 13 races also catches the eye. As does the four-win performance by jockey Joel Rosario.

But the most mind-boggling numeric notation from the summer's biggest day of racing appeared in superscript type for the chart for the Travers itself: The final quarter-mile of the length-of-stretch slugfest between 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality (Tapit) and runner-up Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) was clocked in an astoundingly fast :23.15.

Midnight Bourbon broke fluidly from the rail and immediately claimed the top spot. Yet it was Essential Quality, even after a slight stumble and bump at the break, who really seemed to be in control of the pace while stalking in second. Midnight Bourbon got away with relatively soft back-to-back opening quarters in :24.18 and :24.78–but only because the juvenile champ and GI Belmont S. winner allowed him to.

With Essential Quality on the prowl in ever-dangerous stalk mode under Luis Saez, Midnight Bourbon and Ricardo Santana, Jr. were permitted to milk the third quarter mile of the Travers even slower, to :25.53.

This equated to a six-furlong split of 1:14.49, which theoretically should have afforded tactical advantage to the pacemaking Midnight Bourbon. Yet Essential Quality began to reliably uncoil a half-mile from home, and Saez never appeared rushed or panicked, engaging on the gray favorite's own terms by incrementally eroding Midnight Bourbon's open-length margin through a far-turn fourth quarter clocked in :24.32.

After a 1:38.31 mile, Essential Quality pulled even outside of Midnight Bourbon upon cresting the quarter pole, and they brushed and battled in determined lockstep. Midnight Bourbon drifted slightly–the first sign that Essential Quality's overdriven torque was getting to him–yet Midnight Bourbon admirably remained engaged and briefly re-seized the lead a furlong from the wire.

This is the type of deep-stretch fight that Essential Quality relishes and excels at though, and he purposely powered past Midnight Bourbon within the final 100 yards to prevail by a tenacious neck in 2:01.96 for 10 furlongs.

Of Essential Quality's eight wins, five have now come by margins of a length or less. His 107 Beyer seems about right (two points off his career-best 109 earned in the Belmont S.).

But to throttle up the tempo to :23.15 for the final two furlongs of the Travers borders on outer-worldly. Was the first mile of that race really so relatively untaxing that Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon could both uncork such a swift stretch kick? (The five Travers also-rans were non-factors throughout the race.)

For perspective, know that no final furlong of the Travers has been run faster in the last three decades (Equibase maintains Travers charts dating only to 1991; TDN would welcome a deeper dive by anyone who has access to a more complete set of data).

Between 1991 and 2015, only two editions of the Travers featured sub-:25 final quarters: In 1993, Sea Hero's off-the-pace score (aided by a too-fast-to-last speed duel) finished up in :24.90. In 2000, Unshaded's length-of-stretch reeling-in of Albert the Great went in :24.93.

Quite a few elite horses won the Travers during that same time frame–Holy Bull, Point Given, Medaglia d'Oro and Bernardini among them. Yet the final quarters of all of their Travers victories ranged between :25.09 and :27.20.

Something shifted in 2016, though. That's when Arrogate burst onto the scene with a 13 1/2-length Travers annihilation. He established a Saratoga track record for 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.36, and even though he had zero competition while drawing clear late in the lane, his final quarter mile was a blistering :23.84.

In 2017, West Coast won the Travers while on the lead throughout, and he too joined the under-:25 club with a :24.37 final-quarter clocking. In 2020, Tiz the Law followed suit with a :24.53 Travers stretch run.

Does Essential Quality's winning run, with its gaudy :23.15 final quarter, suggest the outer limits of a Travers trend that has been in the making? And what does it mean when only two horses in a quarter-century manage sub-:25 final quarters in the Travers, then all of a sudden, within a six year span, four horses accomplish that feat?

Prior to Arrogate, General Assembly owned the Spa track record for 10 furlongs. When he established that mark in the 1979 Travers, the New York Times made it a point to report that “His last quarter, when he increased his lead from four lengths to the final 15, was particularly impressing. He ran it in :24 1/5 seconds.”

Although it can be dicey to broaden the scope of comparison away from Saratoga and the Travers, it has to be stated that the ultimate benchmark for final quarter-mile proficiency in a 10-furlong dirt race is Secretariat's 1973 GI Kentucky Derby. He established a 1:59 2/5 track record that still stands, punctuating a tour-de-force stretch bid with a :23 1/5 final quarter (back when fifth-of-a-second timing was the standard).

So did Essential Quality (and Midnight Bourbon, for that matter) unleash performances in the Travers that truly deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat's lofty standard?

“Time will tell,” could be a possible answer to that question. But raw clockings aren't always as straightforward as they seem when trying to understand the overall intricacies of any given race.

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Essential Quality Earns 107 Beyer Speed Figure In Travers Win, BC Classic Ultimate Goal

Godolphin homebred Essential Quality continued to display his excellence with a superb performance in Saturday's $1.25 million Grade 1 Runhappy Travers at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., picking up a fourth Grade 1 triumph.

Essential Quality, traveling in second position under meet-leading rider Luis Saez, was 3 ½ lengths off pacesetter Midnight Bourbon down the backstretch before inching his way closer to the front nearing the far turn. The pair engaged in a dramatic stretch battle, with the 2020 Champion 2-Year-Old coming out on the winning end by a neck and recording a 107 Beyer Speed Figure.

Winning dramatic stretch duels in prestigious races are nothing new for Essential Quality, who won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets on June 5 after battling with Hot Rod Charlie in the stretch. He arrived at the Runhappy Travers off a half-length win in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy on July 30 at the Spa, fending off an inside rally from Keepmeinmind, who was fourth in the Travers.

Essential Quality became the first Champion 2-Year-Old to notch a Travers win since Street Sense in 2007 and joined Tiz the Law [2020], Summer Bird [2009], Birdstone [2004], Point Given [2001], Lemon Drop Kid [1999], and Thunder Gulch [1995] as horses to sweep the Belmont Stakes-Travers double. Additionally, he became the first horse since Arts and Letters in 1969 to win the Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Travers.

Trainer Brad Cox said the $6 million Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic is the ultimate goal but has not yet decided whether Essential Quality will race once beforehand.

“He looked great this morning. He's in good shape,” Cox said. “[Godolphin USA President] Jimmy Bell and I spoke about that this morning, there's no pressure to make a decision right now. We'll just let the dust settle and enjoy this victory for a little bit. I think that's the right thing to do. We'll make a decision in a week or two weeks. The most important thing is watching him and how he trains.”

Through eight victories in nine lifetime starts, Essential Quality has displayed various tactics, having won from just off the pace in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity and the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland, as well as from far back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he made up nine lengths to secure a victory.

“He's a versatile horse,” Cox said. “He seems to show up regardless of the pace. He's shown that he knows how to negotiate a trip and accept what's thrown his way. He knows how to overcome things.”

Cox spoke volumes of this year's 3-year-old crop and said it's a testament to Essential Quality's accomplishments.

“It's very, very good, and that's not just because we have two very good ones in Essential Quality and [Grade 1 Haskell Invitational winner] Mandaloun,” Cox said. “Horses like Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, Jackie's Warrior, and Keepmeinmind were all good horses that played a role as 2-year-olds last year and have been able to continue on at 3. Jackie's Warrior and Essential Quality were both dual Grade 1 winners at two and three. It means a lot. Hopefully, we can keep marching forward and on to the Breeders' Cup.”

Cox has been more involved in the Spa meet this season than he has in years past, which has paid dividends to the Louisville-born conditioner. Three weeks ago, Cox saddled Knicks Go to a victory in the Grade 1 Whitney.

“I've kind of been in and out of Saratoga in years past, but this year I've been here a good bit and it's really grown on me,” Cox said. “Moving forward, I'd like to spend all of my summers here. Being here and doing well in big races, that makes you enjoy it. It's a special place. Between the Travers and the Whitney, these are great accomplishments. It's a lot of teamwork and we have a great team.

“I can see myself spending more time here in years to come,” Cox added. “It's a great place, the whole town is all about racing. It's a special place for sure.”

Essential Quality is out of the multiple-stakes placed Elusive Quality mare Delightful Quality. He is a direct descendant of the influential broodmare La Troienne.

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Cox potentially holds a strong hand for the Breeders' Cup Classic with Essential Quality and Knicks Go, who breezed for the first time since his Whitney triumph on Friday morning. The four-time Grade 1-winning son of Paynter went an easy half-mile in :49.15 over the Oklahoma training track.

Knicks Go will target the $400,000 Grade 3 Lukas Classic on October 2 at Churchill Downs as his final prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

“It was an incredible move and I was proud of him,” Cox said. “I didn't ask him to do much, but he did it the right way. We'll keep him here until the first of September and go from there.”

Cox saddled Ten Strike Racing's Whittington Park, a New York homebred, to a maiden special weight victory on Saturday at second asking. Third in his debut on August 1 at Saratoga, the son of Midnight Lute led the 6 ½-furlong race at every point of call, winning by 7 ½ lengths under Manny Franco. He registered a 69 Beyer for the win.

“We've always liked him. I had the opportunity to see him in Florida in March and he had a good physical,” Cox said. “We didn't feel that we had him quite ready to win first time, but he really got something out of it. We added the blinkers and had a couple of good moves since.”

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Essential Quality Duels Midnight Bourbon Down Stretch To Win Travers

After a half-length victory in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, Essential Quality came into the Grade 1 Travers Stakes as the overwhelming favorite and demonstrated once again why as he dueled with a game Midnight Bourbon down the Saratoga stretch to win the Midsummer Derby by a neck. The Godolphin gray tracked Midnight Bourbon, who stumbled and unseated Paco Lopez in the Grade 1 Haskell in his last start, throughout the 1 1/4-mile Travers, hooked up with him at the top of the stretch, and refused to quit, adding another G1 stakes to his rich resume.

At the break, Ricardo Santana, Jr. hustled Midnight Bourbon to the front, with Luis Saez and Essential Quality on his heels into the first turn. After a first quarter in :24.18, Midnight Bourbon had a comfortable lead, which gave Santana a chance to give his colt a breather on the backstretch, running the half-mile in :48.96 and the three-quarters in 1:14.49. By the time the field of seven entered the far turn, horses were closing on Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality catching him as they approached the last part of the race. From the top of the stretch on, it was a duel between the two front runners, the rest of the field unable to catch them.

Down the Saratoga stretch, Midnight Bourbon and Essential Quality ran head to head, neither able to gain an advantage on the other until the last sixteenth of a mile, Essential Quality gaining inch by inch as they closed in on the wire. At the finish, it was the Belmont Stakes winner by a neck over Midnight Bourbon, with Miles D third.

The final time for the 1 1/4-mile G1 Travers Stakes was 2:01.96.

Bred and owned by Godolphin, Essential Quality is a 3-year-old colt by Tapit out of the Elusive Quality mare Delightful Quality. The Brad Cox trainee and 2-year-old champion colt has five wins in six starts in 2021, his only loss coming in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, where he finished fourth, for a lifetime record of eight wins in nine starts.

 

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Essential Quality Fights Past Midnight Bourbon in Runhappy Travers

Champion Essential Quality (Tapit) came into Saturday's GI Runhappy Travers S. as the heavy favorite with three other Grade I victories to his credit, in addition to his Eclipse Award. Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), on the other hand, entered with a point to prove as he never had a chance to show his stuff last time in Monmouth's GI Haskell Invitational S. July 17, after clipping heels and almost going down in the stretch. Essential Quality got the better of his rival at Saratoga Saturday, but not before Midnight Bourbon gave him a run for his money in a nail-biting stretch drive.

Hammered down to 2-5 favoritism, Essential Quality bobbled a step exiting the two-hole while Midnight Bourbon got away cleanly from the inside stall. The 5-1 shot dictated terms through a :24.18 first quarter with the chalk leading the rest of the field a few lengths back in second. Midnight Bourbon still had things his own way on the front end through a half in :48.96, but Essential Quality and the others closed the gap as three-quarters went in 1:14.49. Curlin S. runner-up Miles D (Curlin) ranged up alongside Essential Quality approaching the far turn, but the Eclipse winner quickly dismissed him and moved up to challenge the pacesetter. Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon exited the bend in unison and battled stride-for-stride down the lane, pulling well clear of the rest of their rivals. Midnight Bourbon battled on gamely at the fence, forcing Essential Quality to summon all of his class to forge clear in the final strides for a neck success. It was five lengths back to Miles D in third.

“We were hoping that he wouldn't lose as much ground and have more of a ground-saving trip as opposed to the Jim Dandy,” said winning trainer Brad Cox. “Luis [Saez] did a good job of recognizing that there wouldn't be a whole lot of pace. He asked him to run out of there and established good position and didn't let Midnight Bourbon get too far away up the backside. I was a little worried up the backside once he cleared up with softer fractions. He's a tremendous horse. He's a champion and he ran like one today.”

The conditioner added, “He's danced a lot of dances and shown up. His lone defeat was the Kentucky Derby, where we felt he was right there in the mix. He's done nothing wrong. We're proud of what he's accomplished this year and he's a very good horse with a fantastic resume.”

“This is a great accomplishment for the whole Godolphin team to be a part of this magical ride,” said Godolphin's Jimmy Bell. “When you go to the Belmont at the mile and a half, to a mile and an eighth [in the Jim Dandy] to a mile and a quarter, hats off to the way they brought him into this race in good form. Luis Saez might be the hottest jockey in the country. We're just very fortunate and blessed to be a part of this team.”

“Right from [the gate] I was on him [Midnight Bourbon] because I knew he was the speed horse, and that horse, when he takes the lead, he keeps going,” said Saez, who piloted champion Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) to victory in the 2013 Travers. “So, I got on him right from there and put him right there in the beginning. He seemed so perfect. That was the plan, but I always feel like I have so much horse that I can make my move and get going. He gets past the horse and he can stay there, he don't waste energy. It's amazing, that's my second Travers and I'm so thankful to be here and be a part of it in this amazing race.”

As for Midnight Bourbon, jockey Ricardo Santana said, “I got a perfect trip. I couldn't ask for a better trip. The winner is way too good. I was walking on the lead and he was going pretty well, too. We slowed it down a little more and went [six furlongs] in 1:14 and I was very happy with him, but the winner was way too good.”

Tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' after his debut win at Churchill last September, Essential Quality followed suit with a win in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland a month later and capped an Eclipse-winning season with a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at that oval in November. Opening his sophomore account with a dominant score in a sloppy edition of Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. Feb. 27, the homebred captured the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. back in Lexington Apr. 3. Suffering his first defeat when fourth as the favorite in the GI Kentucky Derby May 1, he skipped the GI Preakness S. in favor of the June 5 GI Belmont S. and took that contest by 1 1/4 lengths. Essential Quality prepped for the Midsummer Derby with a half-length defeat of Keepmeinmind (Laoban) in the local GII Jim Dandy S. July 31.

Pedigree Notes:
Essential Quality is one of 27 Grade I scorers for record-setting sire Tapit and one of 91 graded stakes winners by the Gainesway stalwart. The champion colt is one of 10 Grade I winners and 61 graded victors out of a daughter of the late Darley stallion Elusive Quality. Godolphin went to $3-million to acquire Essential Quality's second dam, the unraced Contrive (Storm Cat), just after her daughter Folklore (Tiznow) completed her championship juvenile season with a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont at the 2005 Fasig-Tipton November Sale. She was in foal to Pleasantly Perfect at the time of that purchase. Delightful Quality went on to be Grade III-placed for Sheikh Mohammed's operation and Essential Quality is her only winner from two foals to race. Her second foal, the now-5-year-old mare Indelible (Tiznow), summoned $1.6 million from Nobutaka Tada at last term's Fasig-Tipton November sale. Delightful Quality's most recent produce is an unraced juvenile filly named Famed (Uncle Mo). She was barren when bred to Uncle Mo for 2020 and barren yet again when bred to his son Nyquist for 2021. The 12-year-old mare visited Tapit this spring. Essential Quality hails from the family of two-time Japanese champion Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}).

Travers Day Handle & Attendance…

The 13-race Runhappy Travers Day card generated all-sources handle totaling $51,381,515. A paid crowd of 44,507 witnessed Essential Quality's (Tapit) victory in the feature event. On-track handle was $9,406,526. NYRA was honored to welcome New York Governor Kathy Hochul to Saratoga Saturday, where she presented the Man o' War Cup to the connections of Essential Quality.

Saturday, Saratoga
RUNHAPPY TRAVERS S.-GI, $1,225,000, Saratoga, 8-28, 3yo, 1 1/4m, 2:01.96, ft.
1–ESSENTIAL QUALITY, 126, c, 3, by Tapit
 1st Dam: Delightful Quality (GSP, $253,900), by Elusive Quality
 2nd Dam: Contrive, by Storm Cat
 3rd Dam: Jeano, by Fappiano
'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox;
J-Luis Saez. $670,000. Lifetime Record: 9-8-0-0, $4,215,144.
Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross
pedigree.
2–Midnight Bourbon, 126, c, 3, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by
Malibu Moon. ($525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Winchell
Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $230,000.
3–Miles D, 126, c, 3, Curlin–Sound the Trumpets, by
Bernardini. ($470,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP). O-Peter M. Brant &
Robert V. LaPenta; B-River Bend Farm (KY); T-Chad C.
Brown. $125,000.
Margins: NK, 5, NK. Odds: 0.45, 5.80, 18.70.
Also Ran: Keepmeinmind, King Fury, Masqueparade, Dynamic One.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs, or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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