Deterministic, by Liam’s Map, a Rising Star to Watch

The word was out on several 2-year-olds going into a salty Saratoga maiden race on Aug. 12, but in the end it was Deterministic, a son of Lane's End Farm's Liam's Map, who overcame a troubled start to get the win. Trained by Christophe Clement and owned by the partnership of Vinnie Viola's St. Elias Stables, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable, the striking dark bay earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his promising debut.

The colt may have done it the hard way, breaking last in the field of eight with Joel Rosario aboard, but it was the raw talent he showed to overcome the poor start that impressed his conditioner.

“Rosario was very aggressive to get him back in the race, which he did straightaway,” recalled Clement. “He was a touch rank because obviously we asked him to get back into the race and the signal we gave him was to go on and quicken, but Joel got him to settle. Then he made a big, sweeping move and he was able to get there in the end. He was very professional and he got all of us excited.”

Deterministic was a $625,000 Keeneland September purchase for St. Elias. The operation's Executive Director of Racehorse Development Monique Delk remembers scouring the sales grounds for Book 2 yearlings and coming across the youngster, later describing him as a beautiful-bodied, well-balanced and athletic-looking yearling.

Delk said the Hinkle Farms-bred colt had a strong resemblance to his sire, who the St. Elias team picked out for $800,000 at the same auction 10 years earlier.

“I worked for Jimmy Crupi when we purchased Liam's Map for Mr. and Mrs. Viola,” Delk recalled. “He was the same–beautiful, athletic, the whole package. He was special from the get go. I always look forward to seeing all the Liam's Map babies, having that sentimental attachment to him.”

Along with Deterministic sharing a physical resemblance to his sire, Delk quickly noticed similarities in their demeanor.

“They just exude class and they have that smart look about them,” she said. “He took all of his early training with great ease. Everything just came very naturally to him.”

Deterministic made an immediate impression when he arrived at the Clement barn in Saratoga early this summer.

“He has always been a very good mover from day one,” said Clement. “He does not look like a 2-year-old. He looks like an older horse when he is running. He trains like an older horse. And then when he moves, he's just the most beautiful mover. He barely touches the ground. He's like a dancer.”

Timing and surface were two considerations Clement gave some thought to before the colt's debut.

While Deterministic's dam Giulio's Jewel (Speightstown) earned her three career wins on turf, the Clement team believed the colt's forward training and sire power would lead to a strong performance going longer on dirt. They had planned to start the colt a few weeks earlier in the meet, but pushed back his debut out of an abundance of caution when they noticed a mild cough one morning just ahead of the race. In the end, the experience Deterministic collected in the morning while awaiting his first start paid off on the afternoon of his debut.

“We worked him in behind horses and he got a bit of kickback in the morning,” Clement explained. “Because we delayed his first race by three weeks, he probably got a little more experience than the normal 2-year-old that we run.”

The Clement team is not ruling out the Sept. 4 GI Hopeful S., but they said they are leaning toward pointing the colt to the Oct. 7 GI Champagne S.

Also at the Clement barn this summer in Saratoga, the shedrow is home to two more promising Liam's Map progeny. Roses for Debra is five-for-six since breaking her maiden, most recently stepping up to graded stakes company to win the GIII Caress S. She is entered for Friday's Smart N Fancy S. Silver Skillet, who was stakes placed on dirt last year, just earned her first stakes victory last week in the Suzie O'Cain S. stretching out on turf.

Deterministic is Liam's Map's third Rising Star, along with MGSW Crazy Beautiful and GSP Beau Liam. The winner of the 2015 GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Liam's Map is a top five leading fifth-crop sire this year.

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Liam’s Map’s Deterministic Is Sire’s Newest ‘Rising Star’ at Saratoga

Displaying some single-minded ways in the post parade, where he proved himself quite the handful, St Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable's Deterministic (Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) was off slowly on top of his pre-race antics, but he overcame it all to relentlessly grind his way to 'TDN Rising Star' honors in Saturday's fifth race from Saratoga.

Clearly last from the stalls, the dark bay colt lingered at the back of the field for a time, then was content to tuck into sixth as Informed Patriot (Hard Spun) set the pace in advance of 24-1 outside Hurricane Nelson (Khozan). Appearing to be climbing into the dirt, Deterministic was taken out three wide, was more settled on the turn and began to zero in on the leaders nearing the stretch. As many as six paths off the inside as the field hit the top of the stretch, the colt bumped soundly with 6-5 favorite Eliminate (Curlin), but athletically regained his stride and steamed down the center of the track to nail Hurricane Nelson in the shadow of the wire to score at odds just north of 7-2. Eliminate stayed on for third.

Deterministic is the three winner from three of racing age for the three-time winning Giulio's Jewel and his hammer price of $625,000 was the most expensive of the 58 (75 through the ring) of his sire's progeny reported as sold in 2022. Most of the action in Deterministic's pedigree is in the third dam, the stakes-winning Amelia. A half-sister to the talented European sprinter Bertolini (Danzig) and SW Alchemilla (Deputy Minister), she is the dam of seven winners, among them five full black-type scorers, including GSW & GISP Kindergarden Kid (Dynaformer); MGSW & GISP Rainha da Bateria (Broken Vow); Japanese group winners Rabbit Run (Tapit) and Asakusa Genki (Stormy Atlantic); GSW Assateague (Stormy Atlantic); and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up He's Had Enough (Tapit). Amelia's dam Aquilegia (Alydar) was a full-sister to champion Althea. Giulio's Jewel, a half-sister to the GII Lake Placid S. runner-up Duff One (Harlan's Holiday), passed away after foaling a Frosted filly in 2022.

Deterministic is the third 'Rising Star' for Liam's Map.

5th-Saratoga, $105,000, Msw, 8-12, 2yo, 7f, 1:24.18, ft, 1/2 length.
DETERMINISTIC, c, 2, by Liam's Map
1st Dam: Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown
2nd Dam: Acadiana, by Tiznow
3rd Dam: Amelia, by Dixieland Band
Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $57,750. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree, or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.
O-St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker, and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement.

 

 

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Not This Time Share Kicks Off Tuesday Night at Fasig Saratoga

A share in leading sire Not This Time figures to provide some fireworks when it kicks off the action Tuesday night at Saratoga. The sale of the share is scheduled for 6:30 p.m.

Not This Time is the sire of five Grade I winners from three crops to race, and is the leading fourth-crop sire of 2023.

The share includes all projected income from the 2023 breeding season. Shareholders receive one nomination annually, plus their proportional share of the excess book. (See complete details here.)

Not This Time is governed by a 50-share syndicate. “It's a very tightly held syndicate,” said Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales. “The Albaugh family has retained almost half of the shares in Not This Time. Taylor Made owns a chunk of shares, Coolmore owns a chunk of shares, and there are a few other single-share owners. The opportunity to buy these doesn't come along very often because none of those people who own blocks of shares are sellers. This is a unique opportunity.”

Though a fourth-crop sire, Not This Time is just nine years old, having started his breeding career at three.

“For a horse to have already accomplished what he's accomplished at nine is really rare,” said Taylor. “I mean, a lot of these good stallions didn't retire until they were five, start breeding at six or whatever, and by the time they have a chance to establish themselves, they're 13 or 14, whatever. That makes him unique.”

Not This Time's Grade I winners include Up To The Mark, winner of the GI Manhattan S. and the GI Turf Classic S. on turf. Epicenter won the GI Travers S. on dirt, and was second in the Derby and Preakness. Sibelius won the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, a dirt sprint; Just One Time won the seven-furlong Madison S.; and Princess Noor won the GI Del Mar Debutante on the dirt at two.

That versatility in his offspring is, said Taylor, “the hallmark of a lot of the really, really great stallions. Some of them are pigeonholed more dirt, turf or sprint or distance. But if you look at his top horses, you've got Princess Noor who was a Grade I winner at two. She was a seven-figure 2-year-old-in-training. You've got Up To The Mark, who was a $450,000 Book 1 yearling bred off a $15,000 stud fee, and he's turned into a two-turn grass horse. But he was good on the dirt early on in his career. You've got Epicenter, who was champion 3-year-old on the dirt and with a little better circumstance, probably could have won the Kentucky Derby. And then you've got horses that are like Simplification, who was a top 3-year-old on the dirt last year.”

As if to underscore his point, Not That Time's Cogburn won the GIII Troy S., a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint, at Saratoga Saturday.

“Cogburn was good on the dirt last year, they brought him back, and now he looks like he's a real player for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint this year,” said Taylor. “He is a turf sprinter, so I think his versatility is unique. The fact that he gets 2-year olds, he gets route horses on the dirt, he can get turf horses going short or long, and the X-factor is he gets beautiful yearlings. I think anybody that's looking around the grounds this week at Saratoga is going to come away just saying, 'Wow. The product he puts on the end of the shank is very impressive.'”

Recent sales of his progeny have been strong; his 2022 Saratoga sale average was $425,000, with seven sold from seven offered. “His sales averages are now just really taking off, and the best mares by far are coming up in the subsequent crops,” said Taylor. “All his success has come off of mares that were bred on $15,000-and-under stud fees. Now he's got a yearling crop that was on a $35,000 stud fee. He's got foals that were on a $45,000 stud fee, and then he's got in-utero mares that were covered on $135,000. The pipeline is really loaded and I think the sky's the limit. He's a very fertile horse, which makes life easier when you're a shareholder and when you're breeding. It's a big deal in this day and age when people are trying to cover large books of mares.”

Taylor said that there were obvious advantages to putting the stallion share up for sale in a public format and at a marquee event. “It's a unique offering and I think the thought was that the vast majority of these stallions that retire to the bigger stallion farms are not syndicated. Finding a horse that's moving into the upper echelon of stallions that is syndicated makes it unique. If we put it in front of the public and let people bid on it, as opposed to just doing a private solicitation of people we think might be interested, we just thought we could get the word out, get more eyeballs on the opportunity. The seller came up with the idea and they asked our permission and we said, Yes.'” The seller, said Taylor is a private individual who wishes to remain undisclosed.

People often comment on Not This Time's good looks, and his name ties into that, Taylor said.

“His mother, Miss Macy Sue, was campaigned by the Albaughs. She produced Liam's Map, and in his year, he was arguably the best-looking yearling on our farm. They didn't plan on selling him, but we lobbied and said, 'Hey, there's a beautiful horse. You could really take a lot of chips off the table, and then there's a lot of years still to breed Miss Macy Sue. Why don't you put it in the sale?'

“They decided to do it, said Taylor. “He brings $800,000. And so when Not This Time came along, he was clearly the best-looking yearling on our farm. He was absolutely just stunning, this big dark bay Adonis of a horse. And so we said, 'Hey, this is another opportunity to take some chips off the table. Why don't we put him in the sale?” And they said, 'Uh-uh. Not this time.'”

Taylor said he believed that as promising as his first few seasons have been, the best is yet to come for Not This Time.

“The support he got this year from the best breeders around the world was really amazing. I mean, you can't name a really top breeder that didn't send mares to him this year. I think that the support he's getting now is hopefully just going to take him to the next level in his career.”

Bidding on the share is available in person at the sales pavilion at Saratoga, online, or via telephone.

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Liam’s Map Filly Shows Class in Saratoga’s Caress

Despite never having won against open stakes company, Roses for Debra nonetheless installed the 8-5 choice to best four others in Saturday's GIII Caress S. at Saratoga. Undefeated in a pair of starts since joining Christophe Clement's string earlier this season, the Pennsylvania-bred filly made short work of her rivals, coming from off the pace to win by an authoritative victory over Wakanaka (Ire).

MGSW Our Flash Drive (Ghostzapper) got off to an awkward start, spotting the field a couple of lengths as 2-1 chance Bubble Rock took control while Roses for Debra settled two lengths behind through a snappy quarter in :20.95. With Bubble Rock still in front turning for home, Wakanaka loomed up on the outside of the favorite and it appeared to be anybody's race. Unrelenting down the center of the course, Roses for Debra collared Bubble Rock midstretch and powered home a three-length winner over Wakanaka who outlasted the early front runner.

“She broke well. I thought there was going to be a little more speed in the race, but she broke so well so I just sat on her,” ridere Irad Ortiz Jr., winning his fourth race on the day's card. “When the other horse [No. 2, Bubble Rock] went, I just followed the leader. After that, I just let her do her thing from the quarter pole.”

Under the care of Presque Isle trainer Michelle Brafford, the grey reeled off a quartet of synthetic wins at that venue, including the Malvern Rose S. against state-bred company one year ago. Fourth while stepping into better company in a six furlong main track test at Keeneland in October, she came home fourth before resurfacing in 2023 with Clement.

“She came [to me] in the spring,” explained Clement. “One of our owners, Mr. [Dean] Reeves, tried to buy her last year, so we knew about the filly. The deal fell through, but we liked her. I knew the owner because we trained for the owner years ago and he's also the breeder of Big Invasion [Clement-trained graded-stakes winner]–the good sprinter–so, I got the phone call to train her which is great. I'm absolutely delighted to have her in the barn.”

Trying the turf for the first time at Pimlico this season, the 4-year-old came from off the pace to score sprinting five panels against optional claiming company May 19 before posting yet another win while progressing into 3X company and adding an extra furlong at Belmont July 3.

“She's very good. She was impressive at Pimlico. She was very impressive at Belmont,” said Clement. “She came out of the race at Belmont in great shape. When you run at Belmont you don't have to ship, you take them straight from the stalls to the paddock and back. I know it was ambitious, but why not have a look. It worked out. It's nice when you're aggressive and it works out.”

Pedigree Notes:
Rose for Debra represents the ninth group/graded stakes winner for MGISW Liam's Map (Unbridled's Song). Out of the unraced Bernardini mare Essential Rose, the filly is a half-sister to SW Rose's Vision (Artie Schiller). A daughter of the GSW Essential Edge (Storm Cat), the 12-year-old mare is from the prolific family of Flame Of Tara (Ire), responsible for a bevy of accomplished runners, including Irish Highweight route horse Salsabil (Ire) and G1SW Marju (Ire).

Saturday, Saratoga
CARESS S.-GIII, $194,000, Saratoga, 7-22, 4yo/up, f/m,
5 1/2fT, 1:02.39, gd.
1–ROSES FOR DEBRA, 120, f, 4, by Liam's Map
              1st Dam: Essential Rose, by Bernardini
              2nd Dam: Essential Edge, by Storm Cat
              3rd Dam: Rose of Tara (Ire), by Generous (Ire)
   1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($120,000 Ylg '20 KEEJAN; $25,000
Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-John O'Meara; B-Blackstone Farm LLC (PA);
T-Christophe Clement; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $110,000. Lifetime
Record: 8-6-1-0, $323,930. *1/2 to Rose's Vision (Artie
Schiller), SW-USA, MSP-Can, $264,358. Werk Nick Rating:
A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross
pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style
pedigree.
2–Wakanaka (Ire), 124, m, 5, Power (GB)–Storyline (Ire), by
Kodiac (GB). (£3,500 Ylg '19 GOFFPR; $975,000 RNA 4yo '22
KEENOV). O-Team Valor International and Gary Barber; B-Mrs
Jean Brennan (IRE); T-William I. Mott. $40,000.
3–Bubble Rock, 124, f, 4, More Than Ready–Reef Point, by
Giant's Causeway. O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY); T-Brad H. Cox.
$24,000.
Margins: 2 1/4, NK, HD. Odds: 1.75, 4.80, 2.30.
Also Ran: Poppy Flower, Our Flash Drive. Scratched: Bank On Anna.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs.
VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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