Juan Suarez | Horse Racing Free Tips

Asmussen Bearing Down on Number 10,000

Already the winningest trainer in the history of North American racing, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen is close to another milestone, his 10,000th career win.

Asmussen entered Thursday with 9,997 wins and had only one starter on the day, Flute Master (Gun Runner) in a maiden special weight race at Turfway Park.

After a quiet day for the barn, Asmussen's stable will go into overdrive on Friday. He has 13 horses entered in 11 races. His day will begin at Oaklawn Park, where he has entries in seven races. He has three horses entered at the Fair Grounds, two at Sam Houston and one at Turfway Park.

If he doesn't reach 10,000 on Friday he'll be back at it on Saturday. Asmussen has entered 26 horses in 19 races carded for Saturday. He has eight entrants at Oaklawn, eight at Sam Houston, nine at the Fair Grounds and one at Turfway Park. Asmussen's Saturday entries include three horses entered in the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds, Harlocap (Justify), Silver Heist (Tapit) and Private Creed (Jimmy Creed).

After he reaches the 10,000 mark, the next target for Asmussen could be Peruvian trainer Juan Suarez, the winningest trainer worldwide. Through Feb. 15, Suarez had 10,333 wins.

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The Week in Review: At Tampa Bay Downs, An Unlikely Win for the ‘Little Guy’

As the field turned for home in Saturday's Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs, Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream), trained by Gerald Bennett, had the lead, but it sure looked like she'd never hold on. It wasn't just that she was 38-1 and had been pressed most of the way, it was who was chasing her, monsters from the stables of super trainers Mark Casse and Todd Pletcher in Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) and Julia Shining (Curlin). Could a horse from the barn of a 78-year-old claiming trainer who had won all of two graded stakes in his career and none in 33 years, possibly pull this off?

She could and she did.

In what was arguably the biggest upset of the year in a major race, Dreaming of Snow, who was a tiring fourth in the seven-furlong Gasparilla S. in her previous start, defeated champion Eclipse Award winner Wonder Wheel by a neck in the Suncoast. It was another 1 1/4 lengths back to Julia Shining in third. In what has become more and more rare in this sport, a David beat not one, but two Goliaths.

“To win a race like this, that's what you dream of,” Bennett said.

Though Bennett, entering Sunday, had 4,090 winners, 14th best among all North American trainers, he has always operated well outside the spotlight. Born in Nova Scotia, he began training in his native Canada in 1976 and in 2021 became the winningest Canadian-born trainer of all time. He moved on to the now-defunct Michigan circuit, where he became a force at places like Detroit Race Course and Hazel Park and, later on, Great Lakes Downs. In the late eighties and in 1990, Bennett got a brief taste of what it was like to win at the highest level when he campaigned Beau Genius (Bold Ruckus), whose 13 career stakes wins included victories in the GI Philip H. Iselin H. and the GII Michigan Mile and One-Eighth H. He has not won a graded stakes since Beau Genius's win in the 1990 Iselin at Monmouth Park.

At an age when a lot of trainers would be slowing down, Bennett has been enjoying some of his best years. He is leading the current standings at Tampa Bay Downs, where he will be seeking his eighth straight training title. He has won 830 career races at Tampa, where, when it comes to the higher-class races, it's not unusual to see shippers from the top stables based at Gulfstream.

“Those guys ship in here all the time,” Bennett said. “You have to have a nice horse who can compete with them. It was a great thrill to do that, to beat those guys. The last time it happened for me was quite a few years ago, in 2002, in the Super S. Mark Casse had a horse named Exciting Story, who had just won the Met Mile. We beat him and set a track record. That was another great thrill.”

On paper, Dreaming of Snow didn't appear to have much of a chance. She had never run beyond seven furlongs or around two turns and she was coming off what looked like a lackluster effort in the Gasparilla. In Wonder Wheel and Julie Shining, she would be facing two of the best 3-year-old fillies in training. But Bennett was convinced she could win this race.

“When we ran her in seven-eighths race [the Gasparilla], she sat back and we tried to make a run with her,” he said. “The track here, they had a lot of rain and they hadn't bladed it for a while. The track got biased favoring the outside. The inside was extremely deep for a while and that's where she was in that race. Anybody who was down on the inside couldn't finish. She ran an even race last time. But we have been high on this filly from the start and always thought she'd be a nice horse. I thought she had a shot [in the Suncoast].”

Dreaming of Snow was purchased for $60,000 at the 2022 OBS March sale. It was more than Bennett usually pays.

“I go to the sale and buy these horses for $17,500, for $25,000,” he said. “We paid $60,000 for this one. I like going to the June sale in Ocala. It seems like you get more value there and don't have to overpay for them. If they run well and get a big number, usually I'll sell them.”

Some, no doubt, will consider the Suncoast result to be a fluke. Bennett doesn't see it that way. He believes that Dreaming of Snow is a legitimate contender for the GI Kentucky Oaks and is looking to run her next in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn Apr. 1.

“When she turned for home, she drew off a bit,” he said. “She's a fighter and she wouldn't let them pass her. Wonder Wheel was the class of the race and had all the hype. [Casse] had been preparing for this race for a while. He said she got tired, but the jockey was whipping on her well before the wire. You can't take anything away from our horse. She ran a monster race and she wasn't tired. In the winner's circle, she wouldn't have blown out a match.”

Asmussen Vs. Suarez

Steve Asmussen was bearing down on the 10,000-win milestone last week. Entering Sunday's races, he had 9,996 career wins, a remarkable total and one that will surely keep growing for many years to come as Asmussen is just 57. But he still has a way to go before he can be crowned as the winningest trainer in the history of the sport.

That title still belongs to Peruvian trainer Juan Suarez. As of Saturday, Suarez had 10,328 wins. However, Asmussen is gaining on him. Since Aug. 8, 2021, when Asmussen moved past Dale Baird to become the winningest trainer in the history of North American racing, Asmussen has had 440 winners while Suarez has had 332. While Asmussen is always active at several tracks in the U.S., Suarez's opportunities are limited since there is only one track in Peru, Hipodromo de Monterrico.

A Slow Race Or Not, Hit Show Impressed

The loaded Brad Cox-barn won another stakes race with a 3-year-old colt when Hit Show (Candy Rude {Arg}) captured Saturday's GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct. But what should we make of the time? He covered the mile-and-an-eighth in 1:54.71 and the final three furlongs were run in a leisurely :41.36.

That's not a reflection on Hit Show, but how slow the Aqueduct main track has been over the last few weeks. On the same card as the Withers, 3-year-old sprinters needed 1:13.09 to complete the Jimmy Winkfield S. On the day before the Withers, a mile-and-an-eighth race went in 1:59.04. Granted it was an $8,000 claiming race, but that very well could be the slowest time for the distance ever at a NYRA track.

Hit Show was given a 91 Beyer figure for his effort.

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Do 2021 Handle Figures Tell the Whole Story?

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

The announcement from Equibase that handle on U.S. racing in 2021 set a nine-year high with over $12 billion bet was understandably well received. During a year where an awful lot went wrong for the sport, at least the wagering numbers were healthy.

But, and sorry to rain on the parade, we need more information before we can celebrate.

How much was bet is only part of the story. We need to know where the bets were made and by whom. If the increase was the result of such things as added TV exposure for the NYRA races on Fox Sports or sports bettors gravitating to racing or an overall increase in the sport's popularity, then this is a very positive story. But if the added handle was the result of high-volume players who use computer programs to make their bets increasing their level of wagering in 2021, then the picture is an entirely different one. We just don't know.

“It's better that the numbers go up rather than down, but what is the context on this realistically?” said Pat Cummings, the executive director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, who estimates that computer-assisted wagering (CAW) players account for 35% of the total handle in the U.S. “These numbers get put out there in this broad context and that's all it is. So anyone that wants to take a victory lap on them can take a victory lap on them. But they are totally lacking an understanding of the greater detail of the business. It would be like saying you lost 20 pounds during the year, but ignoring the fact that your cholesterol went up 100 points. It's impossible to quantify how good or, potentially, how bad this is.”

This is pari-mutuel wagering, where the successful bettors feast off of the unsuccessful ones. It's their money that they are winning, not the house's money. With the CAW phenomenon, betting on the horses has turned into a matter of the whales vs. minnows or the CAW bettors vs. everyone else. The whales have been gobbling up the minnows, and after a while all the minnows will be gone. This is a serious threat to the long-term viability of the sport. If the CAW players bet more than ever in 2021, well, that's a big problem.

In a perfect world, there would be transparency and we would know exactly where the handle is coming from. How much was bet on-track or at brick-and-mortar OTBs or simulcasting outlets, with ADWs like NYRA Bets and TwinSpires, and how much was bet by the CAW players?

We're never going to find out. Based on the estimate that 35% of all bets made in the U.S. were made by CAW players, that means the computer players wager at least $4 billion a year. With a few exceptions, tracks and other wagering outlets will never turn away their business and neither will they divulge any pertinent information. That's understandable. The CAW customers want to maintain their privacy and the tracks and betting outlets don't want competitors to know their business.

Perhaps the gains made in betting in 2021 had nothing to do with CAW players. We just don't know. It would be nice if we did.

Field Size Shrinks Again

The Equibase year-end release of racing's economic indicators also included the nugget that average field size in 2021 was 7.3 starters per race. That was a 7.2% decline from 2020 and a 2.08% drop from 2019. While those drops alone aren't alarming, it was the smallest average field size since the Jockey Club started keeping records in 1950. As recently as 2011, the average field size was 8.04. This isn't good and there is nothing to suggest it will get better any time soon.

Peruvian Trainers Hits 10,000 Milestone

Trainer Juan Suarez won five races on Saturday at Hipodromo de Monterrico in Lima, Peru to become the first trainer worldwide to have 10,000 career winners. Entering Sunday, Steve Asmussen had 9,592 winners.

Over the last five years, Suarez is averaging 315 wins a year, while Asmussen is averaging 390. That means Asmussen will likely chip away at Suarez's lead but could spend years trying to catch him. The main advantage Asmussen has is his age. He is 16 years younger than Suarez and will surely outlast him.

The Flightline Watch

Trainer John Sadler has yet to decide where budding superstar Flightline (Tapit) will run next after his ultra-impressive win in the GI Runhappy Malibu at Santa Anita. But he has ruled out a start in either the G1 Saudi Cup or G1 Dubai World Cup. Sadler has mentioned the GI Metropolitan H. and the GI Pacific Classic as possible starts for Flightline.

Kristian Rhein and the “Assloads” of SGF-1000

Kristian Rhein, a suspended veterinarian formerly based at Belmont Park, was sentenced last week to three years in prison for his role in the conspiracy to dope horses that also involves Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro. Rhein was caught on a wiretap bragging that he sold “assloads” of the prohibited medication SGF-1000 not just to Servis but to other trainers.

Rhein isn't the first drug distributor or manufacturer to plead guilty and, surely, every one of them were peddling their drugs to a lot more than just Servis and Navarro and the other trainers who have been indicted. A check of Rhein's records alone could yield dozens of names of trainers who were using SGF-1000 and, therefore, cheating.

Will there be more indictments, maybe many more, to come? I'm beginning to think that it's not going to happen, that the FBI and the Department of Justice are ready to move on to matters more important to them than horse racing. But that shouldn't mean the story ends there. Will any state racing commissions investigate, ask the FBI to share their information, interview Rhein and the others? It's horse racing. Probably not.

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Asmussen’s Next Target: Juan Suarez

The Week in Review by Bill Finley

Steve Asmussen moved past Dale Baird Saturday to become North America's all-time leading trainer in wins with 9,446. But for such a goal-oriented individual, it's no time to rest. To be number one in the world, Asmussen still has to catch Peruvian trainer Juan Suarez. And it won't be easy.

Suarez, as of Saturday, had 9,886 wins–or 440 more than Asmussen. On the same day that Asmussen won one race from 13 starters spread across four racetracks, Suarez had three wins on the Saturday card at Peru's only racetrack, the Hipodromo de Monterrico, which is in Lima.

Over the last five years, Suarez, 71, is averaging 315 wins a year, while Asmussen is averaging 390. That means he will likely chip away at Suarez's lead but could spend years trying to catch him. The main advantage Asmussen has is his age. He is 16 years younger than Suarez and will surely outlast him.

Suarez was born in Santiago, Chile and moved to Peru in 1963 at the age of 13. The family moved because Suarez's father, Juan Suarez, Sr., was hired as the trainer for Haras Barlovento, then among the leading stables in the country. The elder Suarez won the most prestigious race in Peru, the G1 Derby Nacional, eight times. Suarez worked as an assistant to his father before going out on his own in 1980 and won 116 races that year.

Much like Asmussen, he built up a huge stable that delivered year after year. From 2001 on, he has not had fewer than 200 winners in a year. He had a personal best 368 in 2013. He currently trains 210 horses and has had as many as 300 at times.

Asmussen enjoys advantages Suarez will never have. Not only does he have more horses than Suarez, but he has the ability to race at four or five tracks at a time. Suarez is restricted to running at Hipodromo de Monterrico.

Through an interpreter, Suarez said that his numbers are down because the stable is still dealing with COVID-19 issues. Though in his seventies, he shows no signs of slowing down and he is not contemplating retirement.

“I live for this activity and I do not have any plans for retirement,” he said. “I am still active in the field here in Peru and many horse owners still look to me because of my experience and our friendship.”

It seems that Asmussen and Suarez share many of the same attributes and both believe the key to success is hard work, putting together a good team and paying attention to every last detail.

“The most important thing is having a dedicated work team,” Suarez said. “You must also have support from your family because the job takes up so much of your time.”

“I was reading about Steve Asmussen and his having such a great memory,” said Suarez's nephew, Lexington-based bloodstock agent Dante Zanelli, Jr. “My uncle is just like that. He has a photographic memory. He has had as many as 300 horses at a time and he knows everything about every horse. He knows his horses and he remembers everything about them. That has a lot to do with his success. He is also an extremely good trainer and has great people working for him. It's very similar to what Steve Asmussen has.”

While Suarez wants to win, he is not consumed with winning.

“I don't focus too much on the wins,” he said. “I pay more attention to the work. I want everything to be OK, and then to see the result of the hard work done by my team and I.”

Suarez has had just one starter in the U.S. For the 2012 GII Breeders' Cup Marathon at Santa Anita, he brought over the Peruvian-bred mare Almudena (Per) (Silver Planet {Arg}). A Group 1 winner in her native country, she finished 10th with Jose Valdivia, Jr. aboard. Valdivia is Suarez's nephew. He is also related to retired jockey Fernando Toro, who is his brother-in-law.

“That was a great experience,” Suarez said. “We did not have much luck in that race but the experience and being able to celebrate the experience was amazing. I love how in the USA they make the experience even greater with the Breeders' Cup organization and all the attention to detail.”

He has also exported horses to the U.S., including a stakes winner at Hialeah. He trained Tomcito (Street Cry {Ire}) before sending him to Zanelli, then a trainer, for the 2008 GI Florida Derby, where he was third.

Zanelli said that his uncle has considered opening up a small stable at Del Mar.

“We have talked about that and the logistics involved and how to make it work,” Zanelli said “He's been talking to his owners about this and has been trying to get permission from the Jockey Club of Peru to open a stable at Del Mar. He'll explore that again for next year. He has a couple of pretty good horses that could win there. He'd like to have a stable with six to nine horses.”

With 12 horses entered Saturday at the Hipodromo de Monterrico, Suarez didn't have time to watch Asmussen move past Dale Baird, but he is well aware of Asmussen's accomplishments and he is an admirer.

“I know that Mr. Steve Asmussen is one of the top-tier horse trainers in the USA,” he said. “I also know that he has a lot of horses and a great work team and family. That shows why he is so successful. His breaking the record in the USA shows the great work ethic that he has. I know the sacrifices you must make to train horses, for the trainer, the family and the team that works with him. It is particularly difficult in such a competitive horse racing country as it is in the USA. I wish the best to Mr. Asmussen and congratulate him for the enormous achievement he has accomplished.”

Panza Left His Mark on Saratoga and NYRA

The paid attendance Saturday at Saratoga for the card topped by the GI Whitney S. was 38,525 and the all-sources handle was $36,820,234. Yes, Saratoga sells itself, but those numbers may not have been possible without NYRA Senior Vice President of Racing Operations Martin Panza. Panza announced his resignation last week. He will work through the end of the Belmont fall meet.

Panza “got it.” He loves racing and is always happy to roll his sleeves up and get to work to make it better. Two of his primary innovations were on display Saturday and contributed to the card's success. He put together the successful turf series for 3-year-old males and fillies that includes the $1-million GI Saratoga Derby Invitational run Saturday. He's also an advocate of creating “Super Saturdays” at the NYRA tracks. Saturday's card didn't include just the Whitney, it had five stakes races and three Grade I's. He turned the card for the GI Belmont S. into a day that goes well beyond the Belmont itself. Next to the two Breeders' Cup Days, it is the best card on the year.

His successor will have big shoes to fill.

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