Whitney Day Generates Record All-Sources Handle

Saturday’s 12-race GI Whitney S. Day card generated an all-sources handle record of $35,796,435, eclipsing the previous Whitney Day record of $31,835,863 set in 2019.
2019 Whitney Day, which was held Aug. 3, saw paid attendance of 40,791 with fans on the grounds of Saratoga wagering $4,658,622.

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Improbable Takes Whitney After Stumbling Start By Favored Tom’s D’Etat

Improbable notched his second consecutive Grade 1 on Saturday, taking advantage of a bad stumble at the start by favorite Tom's d'Etat to win the $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the 4-year-old City Zip colt sat off pacesetter Mr. Buff, took took command into the stretch and won easily by about two lengths over By My Standards. After his bad start, Tom's d'Etat rallied to be third, with Code of Honor and Mr. Buff rounding out the field of five.

Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, covered 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.65 and paid $8.50 for the win — his sixth in 13 career starts. A G1 winner at two of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2019, concluding his year with a fifth-place finish behind Spun to Run in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

He came back in 2020 with a close second behind Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile and then returned to Southern California to win the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

Plagued by gate problems throughout his career, Improbable was fractious while waiting for the gates to open but broke smoothly. Tom's d'Etat, however, went to his knees at the start under Joel Rosario and was several lengths behind the field by the time he recovered.

Mr. Buff led the way through slow fractions of :25.12, :49.74 and 1:13.36, with Improbable his closest pursuer in the run down the backstretch. Tom's d'Etat trailed.

Approaching the far turn, Ortiz asked Improbable for run, and the colt responded. He led into the stretch, the mile in 1:36.53 and was geared down in the final yards.

Produced from the A.P. Indy mare, Rare Event, Improbable was bred in Kentucky by St George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr.

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Improbable Provides Baffert With Back-to-Back Whitneys

‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) scored back-to-back Grade I victories and provided his conditioner Bob Baffert with his second straight renewal of Saratoga’s prestigious GI Whitney S. Saturday with a dominant score in this ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Heavily Favored Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) missed the break and was relegated to last early as native New Yorker Mr Buff (Friend or Foe) took command, loping through early splits of :25.12 and :49.74 with 3-1 shot Improbable keeping close tabs from second. Improbable seized command from Mr Buff as three-quarters went in 1:13.36 with MGSW By My Standards (Goldencents) charging up behind him. Improbable charged clear at the top of the lane and it was all over from there as the flashy chestnut rolled home to a two-length victory. By My Standards held on for second over Tom’s d’Etat. Last term’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) could only manage fourth over a tiring Mr Buff.

“He got up really quick and he put me in the race,” said winning pilot Irad Ortiz. “I just took a little hold because Mr Buff looked like the speed of the race. I put him in second in the clear, like we wanted and went from there. He was comfortable. By the backside, we felt pressure but by his own he started picking it up. I let him do his thing because they were going really slow so I let him go early. When I asked him turning for home, he responded really well.

“Big race. Big race,” said co-owner WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden. “Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob [Baffert] had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good. Then they throw up kind of easy fractions. But, he’s just a different horse this year. That’s his second Grade I in a row. He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

As for the beaten favorite, Tom d’Etat, jockey Joel Rosario said, “He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on. He was standing fine, he just missed the break. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn’t take my time. I thought the pace was fine. Even after that, I was not too far from the lead. It looked like I was in a good spot. But stumbling coming out of the gate, I lost ground right away.”

A perfect three-for-three as a juvenile, including his first top level success in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable faced his first defeat when second in last term’s GII Rebel S. and filled the same spot behind Omaha Beach (War Front) in the GI Arkansas Derby last term. Fifth, but promoted to fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, the $200,000 KEESEP buy finished sixth in last year’s GI Preakness S., after which he was given a brief freshening. Making a successful comeback in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar, he was fourth in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and could only manage fifth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 2. Coming up just 3/4 of a length short of Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Improbable flashed signs of his impressive juvenile form when running off to a 3 1/4-length success in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. going 10 panels in Arcadia June 6.

Pedigree Notes:

Improbable is one of 10 Grade I winners, 30 graded winners and 87 stakes winners for his late sire City Zip. He is also one of 26 top-level scorers, 103 graded victors and 221 stakes winners produced by a daughter of A.P. Indy. Improbable is the first foal to race out of Rare Event, whose -year-old filly Redemption Day (Quality Road), a $180,000 KEESEP purchase by WinStar, broke her maiden July 9 and finished second last time July 30. The 11-year-old mare is also the dam of juvenile colt Snake Doctor

Saturday, Saratoga Racecourse
WHITNEY S.-GI, $695,000, Saratoga, 8-1, 4yo/up, 1 1/8m, 1:48.65, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 124, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
‘TDN Rising Star’ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC; B-St.
George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $400,000. Lifetime Record: 13-6-3-0,
$1,529,520. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk
   Nick Rating: A.
2–By My Standards, 122, c, 4, Goldencents–A Jealous Woman,
by Muqtarib. ($150,000 2yo ’18 OBSAPR). O-Allied Racing
Stable, LLC; B-Don Ladd (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $140,000.
3–Tom’s d’Etat, 124, h, 7, Smart Strike–Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s
Causeway. ($330,000 Ylg ’14 KEESEP). O-G M B Racing; B-SF
Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Albert M. Stall, Jr. $75,000.
Margins: 2, HF, 2HF. Odds: 3.25, 5.60, 1.00.
Also Ran: Code of Honor, Mr. Buff. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Code of Honor Attempts Travers-Whitney Double

Last year’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) looks to become the first horse since Medaglia d’Oro in 2002/2003 to complete the Travers-GI Whitney S. double Saturday at Saratoga and secure a spot in the starting gate for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Capturing the GIII Dwyer S. last term prior to his Travers score, the W.S. Farish homebred came up a nose short of champion Vino Rosso (Curlin) in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup S. in September, but was promoted to first via DQ. Seventh to that rival next out in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, the chestnut captured his seasonal bow in Belmont’s GIII Westchester S. June 6 and was third last out in the GI Met Mile July 4.

“It won’t be easy, but I just hope Code of Honor runs a monster race,” Shug McGaughey told the NYRA notes team. “It will be kind of interesting to see what the tactics are with only five [horses]. I know where I’m going to be, but I’m not sure what the others are going to do or how much they’re going to press.”

Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) is leading the handicap division at the moment and enters this test on a four-win streak. Winner of Keeneland’s GII Hagyard Fayette S. in October, the bay followed suit with his first top-level success in the GI Clark S. in November. Denying Improbable (City Zip) by 3/4 of a length in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Tom’s d’Etat romped by 4 1/4 lengths in the GII Stephen Foster S. at Churchill June 27.

“You can see from his PPs that when the pace is fast, he comes from off the pace and if it’s slow, he’s right on top of it,” said Stall. “That’s a good thing for us. That’s [a compact field] not my problem. That’s for [jockey] Joel Rosario and it’s 100% in his hands. Joel is undefeated on him.”

The runner-up that day was By My Standards (Goldencents), who kicked off 2020 with a trio of victories, starting with a Feb. 9 optional claimer at Fair Grounds. The bay went on take both the GII New Orleans Classic S. Mar. 21 and GII Oaklawn H. May 2.

Improbable, on the other hand, rounded back into his best form last time out. Off the board in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November, the chestnut was second in the aforementioned Oaklawn Mile and returned to winning ways in the 10-furlong GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. at Santa Anita June 6.

Rounding out the quintet is hometown hero Mr. Buff (Friend or Foe). The native New Yorker is an eight-time stakes winner, including the Jazil S. in January and Haynesfield S. in February. Runner-up in the Commentator S. at Belmont Jun 12, the chestnut was fifth last time in the GII Suburban S. July 4.

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