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Bloodlines: Whitney Winner Improbable Hit The Mark For City Zip, Bloodstock Investments

When Improbable won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 1, the striking chestnut colt was further confirming that his sire, the Carson City stallion City Zip, was one of the steadiest contributors of quality in the breed.

City Zip, a Grade 1 winner at two and major winner at three, moved to Lane's End for his third season at stud and was never the top horse on the farm. The most obvious reason for that was a big bay beast named A.P. Indy, who was the top horse on the farm. City Zip didn't even start out as second fiddle to the Horse of the Year, but the quality and consistency of the stock that City Zip sired made him a serious force to be reckoned with.

And breeders came to realize that City Zip was also a good sire for a young mare. A medium-sized stallion, City Zip wouldn't burden a first-time foaling mare with an overly large foal. Furthermore, the stallion consistently contributed speed to his progeny and got startlingly high percentages of starters (84) and winners (66), placing him among the best in breed. As a result, City Zip was a great way to get a nice young mare going as a producer. For instance, a nice young mare by A.P. Indy like Rare Event, who became the dam of Improbable.

Bred in Kentucky by Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership, Rare Event is out of the stakes-winning mare Our Rite of Spring (by Stravinsky) and is a half-sister to G1 winner Hard Spun (Danzig), who was also second in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic.

As a yearling, Rare Event was so attractive that G. Watts Humphrey bought the filly for $400,000 at the 2010 Keeneland September yearling auction. On the racetrack, Rare Event won four of 14 starts, earning $114,159.

As the mare's first live foal, Improbable was a medium-sized, attractive chestnut with three white stockings and a blaze. Humphrey bred the Whitney Stakes winner in partnership with Ian Banwell's St. George Farm Racing LLC, and the breeders sold the flashy chestnut colt at the 2016 Keeneland November sale for $110,000 to Taylor Made Sales, agent, when the partners also sold Rare Event to Calumet Farm for $150,000 while carrying her second foal on a cover to Lane's End stallion Quality Road (Elusive Quality).

At the November sale in 2016, Katie Taylor-Marshall, Frank Taylor, and long-time manager John Hall picked out the spritely weanling who grew into Improbable. Katie Taylor-Marshall said, “We bought him as part of the fourth installment of our pinhooking package, Bloodstock Investments. That was the first installment that we did weanlings only; we had a list of sires that we wanted to get for the package that year, and City Zip was one of them. We missed out on one weanling at Fasig-Tipton, and this colt was really nice, so nice that we decided to hold back a little on the other and go stronger” on Improbable, whom the investors bought for $110,000.

“We were able to buy him,” Katie said, “because he wasn't the biggest; he was just big enough. City Zip was such a solid sire, and this colt is indicative of what City Zips were: he has a strong hind-end, good body, nice neck. Lots of balance and quality.”

Katie recalled that “from the time we bought him, Improbable did well. He had no behavioral problems, no vetting problems. He was consistent and steady [in his development and maturation]. We were going to take him to Saratoga but had another City Zip for Saratoga, and we sent him to September instead,” where the colt brought $200,000 from WinStar and China Horse Club.

Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales said that “the first I saw of Improbable was when he came back to Taylor Made and began to integrate in the herd. He was a really nice, stretchy, and really well-balanced horse, and I thought he looked more like a two-turn horse than a lot of runners by his sire. He had some white feet on him, but they were good and sound. He was a really cool horse but a little different from what you normally saw from the sire.”

City Zip was known primarily as a sire of fast horses, not horses who found their best form at longer distances. The stallion could and did get those, however, and he threw uncommon soundness and athleticism into his stock, even those with white feet, which are frequently seen as a sign of a soft or potentially weak foot in a racer.

Instead, Mark Taylor noted that the colt's sale to the people at WinStar “validated our feeling that this was a really good horse. At the end of his 3-year-old season, I thought that this colt was one of those horses who hadn't reached his full potential, but he has certainly done the job this season, and when he goes to stud, I know that we will be lining up to breed mares to him because he is a beautiful horse.”

In the immediate future, the plans indicate that Improbable will continue to challenge for a leading role in the older horse division with a goal of the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in October.

And the Taylor Made crew will be back with more yearlings to sell next month at Fasig-Tipton and at Keeneland.

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Pointing To Forego, Vekoma Takes Over NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

With Midnight Bisou and Tom's d'Etat both suffering defeats in their respective Grade 1 races at Saratoga Race Course this past weekend, multiple top-level winner Vekoma gained the majority of support among voters to move into the No. 1 position on the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll.

Vekoma has been flawless in his 4-year-old campaign to date, winning all three of his outings including victories in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap and Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. The son of Candy Ride (ARG) surged to the top of this week's poll with 13 first-place votes and 321 total points and is expected to make his next start in the Grade 1, $300,000 Forego on August 29 at Saratoga.

“We're trying to make it to the Breeders' Cup and the Forego is the most logical next spot,” trainer George Weaver told the NYRA publicity team regarding Vekoma. “So far, everything's looking good and we're looking forward to getting him back to the races. The sky's the limit for him.”

Tom's d'Etat could have made a case to move into the No. 1 slot with a victory in last Saturday's Grade Whitney Stakes but the 7-year-old stumbled out of the gate en route to a third-place finish. The son of Smart Strike still earned 6 first-place votes and 299 points to hold onto the No. 2 spot while his Whitney conqueror Improbable moved into the third position with 6 first-place votes and 278 points.

Champion Maximum Security (9 first-place votes, 256 points) maintains the fourth spot while fellow Eclipse Award-winner Midnight Bisou – who had held the top spot in the poll since March 10 – dropped to fifth with 1 first-place vote and 248 points after she finished second as the favorite behind Vexatious in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes.

Zulu Alpha (140 points) ranks sixth followed by Monomoy Girl, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2018, in seventh with 2 first-place votes and 120 points. Top-ranked sophomore Tiz the Law ranks eighth with 3 first-place votes and 118 points while By My Standards (112 points) and Volatile (56) round out the top 10.

Ahead of his expected run in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga this Saturday, Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law remains the clear choice in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll with 40 first-place votes and 400 total points. Honor A. P., who finished second in the Shared Belief Stakes on August 1, holds onto the No. 2 spot with 300 points.

Grade 1 Haskell Stakes victor Authentic (280 points) sits third followed by Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector (276), who is expected to be the heavy favorite in the Ellis Park Derby on August 9.

Los Alamitos Derby victor Uncle Chuck (180 points) ranks fifth ahead of his planned start in the Travers Stakes while stablemate Thousand Words (138) rejoins the top 10 in sixth following his victory in the Shared Belief Stakes.

Haskell runner-up Ny Traffic (112 points) ranks seventh followed by King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, in eighth with 106 points. Sophomore fillies Swiss Skydiver (89 points) and Gamine (84) complete the top 10.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in both the Top Three-Year-Old Poll and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup in November.

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Baffert: Saratoga Gate Crew Gets An Assist In Improbable’s Whitney

Winning a prestigious race takes the work of a team. After Improbable's victory in Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said the assistant starter and the entire NYRA gate crew were his Most Valuable Players for settling his horse in the gate, allowing him to run his race and post a two-length score in the 1 1/8 mile contest for some of the top older horses in the country.

After rearing up once in the gate and acting fractious a second time, Improbable still managed to break sharp from post 2 in the five-horse field, which put him in a better position than even-money favorite Tom's d'Etat, who stumbled leaving the outermost post.

Improbable stayed off Mr. Buff's early fractions before taking command out of the final turn and repelling By My Standards' late bid to win his second consecutive Grade 1.

“You have to thank the gate crew, the guys they had in there with him. It's like being in the gate with a bull sometimes,” Baffert said with a laugh. “He could have easily turned over, but they did a tremendous job, so I give them a big assist there because they did a great job.”

Once away, Improbable showed top-class form under jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who captured his second Whitney in three years after also winning aboard Diversify in 2018.

“As much as he acts up in the gate, he always breaks really well,” Baffert added. “He breaks like a shot. After that, Irad got him in a nice rhythm. He followed Mr. Buff on the lead and tightened him along there and turned for home. Improbable had been working so well down here at Del Mar. It was a big effort there.”

Improbable won his third career Grade 1, joining the Los Alamitos Futurity in December 2018 as a juvenile. The son of City Zip competed in the Triple Crown trail last year but finished out of the money in four Grade 1s, placing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, running sixth in the Preakness and finishing fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

In his 4-year-old campaign, he ran second in the Oaklawn Mile in his seasonal bow in April before capturing the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on June 6 going 1 1/4-miles at Santa Anita before earning a personal-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure for his Whitney win.

Owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, Improbable improved to 6-3-0 in 13 career starts. Baffert said Elliott Walden, WinStar's CEO, said he had the Hollywood Gold Cup and then the Whitney route picked out for him.

“Elliott Walden does all my scouting and said this is where we need to run,” Baffert said. “We were going to run at Oaklawn but decided to scratch him there and wait for the Gold Cup. It's a team effort.”

The Whitney was just the second time Improbable won outside of California, with his second-start victory in the 2018 Street Sense at Churchill Downs marking the other.

“This is one of the few times he's won on the road, so that was a big effort,” Baffert said. “It was nice that the WinStar group was there. I didn't know they had never won the Whitney before; they had won everything else, so it was exciting for them.”

Baffert, who has won two Triple Crowns [American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018], has conditioned winners in almost every major race in the country. But until 2019, he had never trained a Whitney winner. After McKinzie won it last year and Improbable followed suit, Baffert became the first trainer to repeat in the Whitney since fellow Hall of Famer Scotty Schulhofer in 1994-95.

While Baffert has famously trained 3-year-olds, his stock of older horses this year continues to be strong, with Improbable part of a roster that also includes a still-racing McKinzie as well as Maximum Security.

“It's such a prestigious race, and to win it, it means a lot,” Baffert said. “I'm lucky enough to train for some big outfits, and when you train for them, you get a lot more chances at it. I'm excited to train older horses, because they usually go to stallion duty because they've done so well so they aren't around for the extra year. Unfortunately, the COVID situation has taken away some opportunities to run them, but I just feel blessed and fortunate that I do have these horses.”

But Baffert still has talented sophomores, including Uncle Chuck, who registered his final breeze yesterday before the Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers on August 8.

The lightly raced Uncle Chuck is 2-for-2, with a seven-length score in his debut on June 12 going one mile and a four-length victory last out in his first stakes appearance in the Los Alamitos Derby at 1 1/8 miles on July 4.

Owned by Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman, Uncle Chuck breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.20 over Del Mar's main track, the fastest of 71 clocked at the distance.

“He worked really nice and I was really happy with the way he did it,” Baffert said. “He came out of his last race really well. We still have to ship and hopefully he doesn't get too stirred up. Hopefully, we get a good post and a good break.”

Unraced as a juvenile, Uncle Chuck has benefitted from starting his career later. A $250,000 purchase at the 2018 Keeneland September Sale, he was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings.

“He wasn't ready and I remember buying him as a yearling, and Barry Eisaman, who broke him, said 'take your time with him. Don't break him right away,'” Baffert said. “We took our time with him. I didn't want to run him as a 2-year-old. [Eisaman] just took his time with him and sent him to me when he's ready. He then showed up and said he's ready. I can see he's just starting to mature now and figure it out. His work yesterday was probably one of his better works. He was focused the whole way around there. We've been tempted to put blinkers on him but I was afraid it might get him a little too rank, but we'll see how he does in the Travers.”

Baffert is a three-time Travers winner with Point Given in 2001, Arrogate,who set the 1 1/4-mile track record of 1:59.36 in 2016 and West Coast in 2017.

Another talented Baffert 3-year-old looking to make a mark on Travers Day is Michael Petersen's Gamine, who enters the Grade 1, $300,000 Longines Test for sophomore fillies off a dominating 18 ¾-length win in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes Day June 20.

Gamine earned a 110 Beyer for her win in the one-mile Acorn and will now cut back to seven furlongs. The $1.8 million purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds-In-Training Sale breezed six furlongs in 1:12.80 at Del Mar on Sunday.

“She just breezed today and looked great,” Baffert said. “It looked nice. She's coming into the race really well.”

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Week in Review: Faves Fail to Show on Saturday, but Excuses Abound

This past Saturday wasn’t a great day to be a favorite in an open stakes race at the nation’s premier race meets. Chalk horses went a collective one-for-seven at Saratoga and Del Mar, and the list of excuses included stutter-step starts, bumps leaving the gate, stretch-run roughhousing, getting disqualified, and being dueled into defeat in internal pace battles.

Tight finishes in several stakes elevated the interest level, although the results in general did not lend clarity to the nationwide divisional races with the GI Kentucky Derby inside the five-week mark and the Breeders’ Cup Championships now three months out.

At the Spa, faves went zero-for-five, with the GI Personal Ensign S. setting the tone early in the day. The 9-1 Vexatious (Giant’s Causeway), who hadn’t won since scoring in a 1 3/8 miles turf stakes at Del Mar two summers ago, ran the race of her life at age six while attending the pace over nine furlongs on dirt. She got first run on a tiring speedster, then braced for the onslaught of heavy favorite Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). Last year’s distaff champ looked like she’d inhale the determined bay, but Vexatious dug in for a spirited fight, shifting outward and exchanging bumps in deep stretch before prevailing by a neck and surviving a foul claim and inquiry.

The win was a first Grade I triumph for both Vexatious and trainer Jack Sisterson, who also picked up his first career win at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign. Vexatious earned an automatic entry to the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 7 at Keeneland, where Sisterson is primarily based.

In the nine-furlong GI Whitney S., the 3-1 Improbable (City Zip), who has a history of getting hot and bothered in the starting gate, held up the start. The Bob Baffert trainee eventually settled down, but the delay might have contributed to the unraveling of even-money favorite Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), who missed the break and came out four lengths behind the field. This altered the pace complexion of the Whitney, leaving 29-1 long shot Mr. Buff (Friend or Foe) sailing solo on the lead through soft splits with Improbable tracking in second and Tom’s d’Etat relegated to the back of the pack.

Improbable, on his way to a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, swatted away Mr. Buff at will on the far turn, opening up by two lengths in the stretch under steady urging. By My Standards (Goldencents) picked up the pieces in second. Tom’s d’Etat checked in third, ending his four-race winning streak, but with an asterisk attached because of his trip woes.

The 7-1 upset by Echo Town (Speightstown) in the seven-furlong GI H. Allen Jerkens S. Presented by Runhappy didn’t at all seem fluky despite another favorite–the 2-1 No Parole (Violence)–faltering. The Jerkens was a deep 11-horse affair, and Echo Town broke with alacrity and was initially within three lengths of a hotly contested lead. But he settled nicely at the tail of the main flight on the inside, then edged outward for clear passage, commencing a rally a half-mile out that quickly picked off most of the pack.

The leaders lined up four across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Echo Town’s widest bid included a deep-stretch resurgence that none of his peers could match, and the Steve Asmussen trainee ended up drilling a pretty good bunch of 3-year-old sprinters by 3 1/2 lengths.

Shifting, drifting, bumping, and grinding through the final furlong of the GII Bowling Green S. at 11 furlongs on the turf affected five of the six starters, and the stewards placed the blame on Sadler’s Joy (Kitten’s Joy), who was DQ’d from his neck win and placed fourth. New York-bred Cross Border (English Channel) was elevated to victory after crossing the wire second. The result could portend a nice August start at the Spa for New York-breds, as fellow state-bred Tiz the Law (Constitution) figures to start heavily favored in this Saturday’s GI Runhappy Travers S.

In the nightcap, 4-1 Cariba (Cairo Prince), completed the stakes blanking of Spa faves with a half-length tally in the Caress S. over 5 1/2 furlongs on the lawn.

Meanwhile, on the Left Coast…

Honor A. P. (Honor Code) looked flat and unmotivated when checking in second at 1-5 odds in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. But even before he encountered trip trouble on the track, the pre-race vibe signaled that this could be a “trap” race for the top West Coast candidate for the Kentucky Derby.

Honor A. P., who previously performed like a more-distance-the-better type of 3-year-old, was cutting back half a furlong to 1 1/16 miles from his GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, and the dynamics of the four-horse Shared Belief meant that the ridgling would have be closer to the pace than was ideal for his running style. It didn’t help that Cezanne (Curlin) swerved directly into him at the gate break, and jockey Mike Smith (as he often does aboard odds-on favorites in route races) guided Honor A. P. to the back and outside of trouble, even though this meant giving up three paths of real estate into the clubhouse bend.

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), meanwhile, broke fluidly and settled in at the fence to be the 9-1 pacemaker. Entering the backstretch, Honor A. P. advanced under his own power to shadow the speed a half-length back, but Cezanne again became a pesky presence about a half mile out when he pushed up from between rivals to claim second, causing Honor A. P. to lose a position while edging outward again for another three-deep journey through the far turn.

Cezanne narrowly led off the bend, but Thousand Words punched back under urging at the rail while Honor A. P. couldn’t gain any traction on the outside. Honor A. P. re-engaged late to finish second, three-quarters of a length behind Thousand Words. But his resurgence had more to do with Cezanne backpedaling out of the picture than it did with Honor A. P. finding that unmatchable late gear he displayed in his Santa Anita Derby win.

In the aftermath of the Shared Belief, Thousand Words (104 Beyer) has regained some of his early-season luster after the Bob Baffert trainee fell off the Derby radar for a stretch between March and June. But Honor A. P. is likely to emerge as the more dangerous threat heading to Louisville, because trainer John Shirreffs didn’t have him fully cranked for his final Derby prep, and nothing about his taxing trip worked in his favor.

Later on the card, the 19-10 Collusion Illusion (Twirling Candy) emerged as the lone unscathed favorite on Saturday’s slate of national stakes, rallying from out of the clouds (or out of the Del Mar fog, to be more precise) to nail a GI Bing Crosby S. photo-finish win by a nose after patiently watching a six-way scramble for the lead disintegrate. The Mark Glatt trainee was the lone 3-year-old in the six-furlong field of nine.

Turfway Park Update

During the same earnings conference call last Thursday in which Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI) chief executive officer Bill Carstanjen detailed long-term plans for the gaming corporation’s desire to rid itself of Arlington International Racecourse, Carstanjen also provided an update to the redevelopment of Turfway Park and its “extension” betting facility a dozen miles to the northeast in Newport, Kentucky, that will be generating purse money for the track’s Dec. 2-31 holiday meet.

“We finished demolishing the existing grandstand at Turfway Park in the second quarter, and the racetrack itself with a new state-of-the-art artificial racing surface called Tapeta will be completed by the end of August,” Carstanjen said. “During the second quarter, we completed the architectural design and site development plans. We will begin construction of the new horse racing machine (HRM) and grandstand facility as soon as we obtain the required permits and complete the necessary site improvements. The updated design reflects a floor plan of approximately 155,000 square feet and includes a simulcast facility, a racing grandstand and event space for groups and banquets, racehorse owner and VIP player accommodations; 44,500 square feet of gaming floor that can accommodate up to 1,200 HRMs, and three food and beverage venues, including a sports bar designed to accommodate sports wagering in the event it is approved in Kentucky.

“Based on the finalization of the design for the facility, total project capital for Turfway Park is projected to be approximately $200 million, which includes the Turfway Park acquisition costs and other previously approved capital. This capital investment will be completed over the next 15 to 18 months. The increase of approximately $45 million over previously provided estimates is primarily driven by increased site work requirements and a larger racing and gaming facility. Our team completed an additional analysis of the Northern Kentucky market and believes that the market demographics and competitive landscape can clearly support this level of investment and will generate a strong return on capital for our shareholders.

“With respect to our Turfway Park extension in Newport, Kentucky, we’ve made excellent progress on this project. Our team has completed all of the site work and the structural improvements needed to the building. We anticipate that the additional interior construction will be completed by the end of September in preparation for a grand opening [with up to 500 HRMs] by early October. This timing will provide two months of operations to generate much needed purse money for Turfway Park’s December live Thoroughbred race meet.”

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