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Equibase Analysis: Reagan’s Edge Leads Strong Field In Raven Run

The Grade 2, $200,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland is usually a showcase of some of the top filly sprinters in North America, and this year's edition is no exception. Four of the 10 entered are graded stakes winners, with another four having finished in-the-money in graded stakes so far in their careers.

In terms of career earnings, Finite leads the group with over $650,000 in the bank, most of it earned winning the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February. Venetian Harbor won the Grade 2 Las Virgenes Stakes in February and enters this race off a fine second behind Gamine in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. Tonalist's Shape brings a six-for-nine record with her including a win in the Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes in February and she had significant traffic trouble in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks in her most recent race.

Four Graces won the Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes at this distance at Keeneland in July and was most recently second in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes. Never Forget finished third in the Eight Belles and hopes to improve, as does Grade 2 Prioress Stakes fourth place finisher Secondary Market. Fair Maiden just missed in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes 13 months ago and won following 10 months off in September so could get back to stakes quality form.

Grand Cru Classe won the Weber City Miss Stakes last month and is racing in a graded stakes for the first time. Reagan's Edge hasn't won a stakes race yet but finished second in the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes in her most recent start. Secret Keeper also finished second last time out, in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes, and these two appear to be strong contenders in a very deep field.

Reagan's Edge has finished second in two straight stakes races to Frank's Rockette, arguably the top 3-year-old filly sprinter in North America. Frank's Rockette would be the prohibitive favorite here and since she's not running in this race, Reagan's Edge is going to be tough to beat. She's earned 105 and 103 Equibase Speed Figures in her last two races, the lowest of which is higher than any other horse's last two figures. We call this a “Double Advantage” and that's another reason Reagan's Edge gets top billing as a win contender, because it means other horses in the field have to improve significantly to run faster to beat this filly.

Secret Keeper won the first two starts of her career with 90 then 96 figures. In her third start she improved to a 98 figure when second in the Torrey Pines Stakes to Harvest Moon, who then improved seven points to win the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes. If Secret Keeper continues her pattern and moves up like Harvest Moon did, she's going to run as fast as a 105 figure, which is as good as Reagan's Edge earned in the best of her last two starts. As such, Secret Keeper must be considered as logical to win this year's Lexus Raven Run Stakes as Reagan's Edge.

Four Graces won the similar Grade 3 Beaumont Stakes at this seven furlong trip at the July Keeneland meeting, earning a 99 figure, then improved again to career-best 102 figure effort when second in the Eight Belles Stakes last month. Excluding the one race in which she tried to run farther than this seven furlong distance, Four Graces has won four races and finished second in the other so deserves a lot of respect in this year's Raven Run Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Fair Maiden (100), Finite (101), Grand Cru Classe (92), Never Forget (98), Secondary Market (99), Tonalist's Shape (95) and Venetian Harbor (106).

Win Contenders:

Reagan's Edge
Secret Keeper
Four Graces

Lexus Raven Run Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, October 17 – Post Time 5:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $200,000

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: Run-Up Made Final Time Misleading In Jessamine

While Aunt Pearl's performance in the J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 7, 2020 was an impressive gate-to-wire score in a sizzling time, smashing the stakes record by more than two seconds, the pesky un-timed portion of nearly every American race played a role in the eye-popping clocking.

“Run-up” is the distance from where the gate is placed and the timing of the race begins – that is, the point at which the horses reach the published distance of the race. The Jessamine, and nearly every other race in North America, is not run over the distance listed in the program or past performances. So, when reporting the race was “1 1/16 miles” – that is really only the portion of the race which is timed, not the full distance run.

The actual distance the race covers, naturally, is the point from where the gate is placed to the finish, but depending on how far the gate is from the published distance of the race will dictate how much of ground at the start is covered before the horses reach the point which is 1 1/16 miles from the finish.

In the case of the Jessamine, the initial Equibase chart of the race reported 216 feet. Keeneland later informed Equibase that distance is closer to 100 feet, and the chart was amended.

The Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee covered the issue in the days after the race:

“Elliston said additional gaps for entry to the turf course have been added this fall 'in an attempt to try to preserve the surface by not placing the starting gate at the same position on the turf course at [often-run] distances. The gate can rough up the course through that kind of repetition.'

“For the Jessamine, the gate was 'placed the farthest back of all the gap options,' Elliston said. 'Obviously, this is the kind of thing handicappers have a right to know about beforehand, so we're making that information available on a regular basis.”

At the suggestion of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), Elliston confirmed that Keeneland would begin updating the daily run-up information on the track's website, which can be found here on the “track conditions” page.

“We thank Keeneland for their attentiveness to the situation and getting the updated information to the public,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of TIF.

“There needs to be an industry-wide discussion about accuracy in our sport. Every time entries are drawn for a new race, and they are published, our industry is misled into believing a race is being run over the distance that is listed. That is false – our sport reports about 30,000 falsehoods a year just in terms of the accurate distance of races run. We report the distance timed, not the distance run, and in so doing, disrespect everyone in the sport, but most especially the horseplayers and the horsemen.”

From the break of the gate to the finish in the 2020 Jessamine, Aunt Pearl ran for about 1:46. Last year in the same race, Sweet Melania ran for about 1:45.

Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS confirmed from video timing software that the 2020 Jessamine field ran for about 5.31 seconds before timing began. He added that, based on this method of timing one mile dirt races at Santa Anita, which have a reported 160 feet of run-up, routine run-up times are around 4.95 seconds. At Del Mar over the same distance, run-up is reported at 200 feet and the time is about 5.75 seconds of untimed racing before the clock begins and horses reach the point one mile from the finish.

TIF published a report several weeks ago which highlighted gross inaccuracies in distances run at Saratoga, Gulfstream Park and Kentucky Downs. There have been few changes.

On the last day of racing at Gulfstream prior to their seasonal shift to Gulfstream West, Mo of the West won Race 9 carded at one mile on turf. The published final time was 1:36.44, but the horses actually ran for about 1:44.

“Aunt Pearl looks a very nice filly,” Cummings said, “but the raw information our sport presents to customers suggests she was potentially 12-14 lengths faster than any previous winner of the Jessamine.

“Even if Aunt Pearl is to be a future superstar, the next Zenyatta, it is almost impossible to believe she is that much faster than all previous winners of the race. What is not doubted is that she covered a longer course in the 2020 Jessamine, which seems to have had the longest run-up of any previous edition, and thus made the times faster given she got up to a higher speed once the clock started.

“This is just another reason that the sport's speed and pace figuremakers are valuable for racing, they serve as an incredibly valuable check-and-balance to the raw data the sport presents. Take nothing away from the horse, but the times can be very misleading to the public given that tracks are not putting the gate in the same place and races are not effectively run over the same distance, particularly on turf, from year-to-year. In a sport where the difference between a big win and total loss can be incredibly small, accuracy matters so much.”

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C.R. Trout Could Make History In Friday’s Oklahoma Classics Cup

Oklahoma-bred millionaire Shotgun Kowboy won the Oklahoma Classics Cup four times for breeder-owner-trainer C.R. Trout, including the last three years in a row.

The 8-year-old gelded son of Kodiak Kowboy, out of the Siphon (BRZ) mare Shotgun Jane, still comes to the track just about every morning at Remington Park and is the best looking horse in Trout's barn. However, Shotgun Kowboy will not be running in Friday's $175,000 Oklahoma Classics Cup, a race he won in 2015 and then 2017-19. Shotgun Kowboy is now retired, after incurring an injury during training earlier this year at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.

“We let him (Shotgun Kowboy), with my assistant Dan Ortiz up on him, accompany the horses I'm working in the mornings and he looks fantastic,” said Trout, who earned $1,548,684 by racing this horse from 2014-19. “I don't think I've ever seen him look better. It is tempting to bring him back to training and racing, but that injury was pretty bad.”

Trout of Edmond, Okla., is one win away from being the all-time winningest owner and trainer of the Classics Cup. He has taken the trophy home six times as an owner, tying him with John and Barbara Smicklas, and six times as a trainer, placing him in a tie with Donnie Von Hemel.

It would mean a great deal to Trout to be the top owner and trainer in Cup history by winning this race on Friday: “It certainly would be exciting. Anyone would like to reach that goal.”

This year, Trout's Cup hopes lie with Fast Breakin Cash, one of eight horses entered for the 2020 edition. A 4-year-old gelded son of Yes It's True, out of the Forestry mare Fast N Fine Lookin, Fast Breakin Cash will pick up the baton for the Trout barn. Trout also won the Classics Cup with Imahit in 2013-14.

“Imahit's first win in the Cup was probably the most exciting for me,” Trout said. “We were stretching him out from sprints to a route and he responded in kind. It's great when you do that and it works. As far as this year's race goes, I like my chances. We're not scared of anybody in there.”

Trout is trying to do a similar thing that he did with Imahit. Fast Breakin Cash has run 13 times and 12 of those races were sprints. He could have gone into the Oklahoma Classics Sprint except for one thing.

“Oh, we've tried him against Welder already,” Trout said.

That is good enough reason to stretch him out around two turns to the 1-1/16th miles for the Cup. He was a respectable third to Welder in last year's Oklahoma Classics Sprint, beaten only 4-1/4 lengths by the two-time Oklahoma Horse of the Year. The one race where he did negotiate a route of ground was the $70,000 Jim Thorpe Stakes here last year at one mile, and he ran second, beaten only 1-3/4 lengths by Cowboy Mischief.

“Oh, he's bred to go as far as you want him to go,” said Trout.

To win another Classics Cup and establish a record for most wins in the race would be satisfying but also bittersweet for Trout, who is competing on this night for the first time without his wife Arletta, who passed away Nov. 24, 2019.

“When you live with someone more than 50 years, it's just not going to be the same,” he said. “She was not only my wife, but she was also my best friend. I will have my whole family here, but it still won't be like having your best buddy that's always been here.”

Here's a look at the field with post position, jockey, trainer and odds:

1) Dont Tell Noobody: Sophie Doyle, Federico Villafranco, 15-1

2) Georgia Deputy: Ezequiel Lara, Joe Petalino, 20-1

3) United Patriot: Lori Biehler, Michael Biehler, 10-1

4) Rowdy Yates: Stewart Elliott, Steve Asmussen, 2-1 (morning-line favorite)

5) Fast Breakin Cash: Luis Quinonez, C.R. Trout, 5-1

6) Dak Da Man: Lane Luzzi, Kari Craddock, 6-1

7) Kwik: David Cabrera, Karl Broberg, 10-1

8) Deal Driven: Ramon Vazquez, Robert Mosco, 5-2

Remington Park racing continues Thursday-Saturday, Oct. 15-17, this week with Friday being Oklahoma Classics Night featuring the top Oklahoma-breds in divisional stakes competition worth $1 million. The first race nightly is at 7:07pm-Central.

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ARCI: Financial Impact, Implementation Details Should Be Known Before Passage Of HISA Bill

Expressing concerns about undefined cost mandates and implementation issues associated with S.4547, the proposed Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act of 2020, the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI) believes Legislators should require more information about how the legislation will impact individual States before moving forward with the proposal.

“The RCI Board believes there are some very good things in this bill,” said Ed Martin, President of the ARCI. “But there is a huge financial unknown concerning the cost, especially how it will impact smaller and mid-sized racing entities and exactly how this is to be implemented.”

Martin said the ARCI is committed to a smooth transition once the proposal is enacted into law, noting that the legislation addresses issues long advocated by the association, specifically uniform rules and testing. “This legislation accomplishes that and also solves the funding issue that has been an annual headache for every racing commission,” he said.

The ARCI Board met this week and discussed the proposal at length. “There are many questions about how this will work and a general concern about how smaller and midsized racing venues will survive if required to pay additional regulatory expenses,” he said. A staff analysis of the legislation noted at least 35 racing venues in 19 US States that should be monitored to assess the extent to which they will be able to withstand additional financial mandates imposed by the legislation.

The RCI Board felt that there were too many unanswered questions to embrace the legislation at this time although directors from Kentucky spoke in favor, West Virginia against, and some other jurisdictions withheld comment pending direction from their full Commission.

Other than shifting medication rule making authority and in some jurisdictions the responsibility for operating and paying for the enforcement program, the State Racing Commissions are perhaps the entities least impacted by this legislation.

There is a concern that in an attempt to strengthen racing, this bill may reduce racing opportunities in some communities with a ripple effect on local economies, particularly in the agricultural sector.

“The RCI Board believes the sponsors and proponents of this bill should allay those fears by providing details about the anticipated costs associated with the new Authority and the Enforcement Agency as well as state specific operational costs should they assume the entire enforcement program now operated by the State,” Martin said.

Martin said that the statute, when implemented, will be similar in some ways to the system in place for RCI Members in Canada, except that investigations there and adjudications are handled by Provincial Racing Commissions with testing and screening limits handled by a federal agency uniformly.

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