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Improbable Takes Whitney After Stumbling Start By Favored Tom’s D’Etat

Improbable notched his second consecutive Grade 1 on Saturday, taking advantage of a bad stumble at the start by favorite Tom's d'Etat to win the $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the 4-year-old City Zip colt sat off pacesetter Mr. Buff, took took command into the stretch and won easily by about two lengths over By My Standards. After his bad start, Tom's d'Etat rallied to be third, with Code of Honor and Mr. Buff rounding out the field of five.

Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, covered 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.65 and paid $8.50 for the win — his sixth in 13 career starts. A G1 winner at two of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2019, concluding his year with a fifth-place finish behind Spun to Run in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

He came back in 2020 with a close second behind Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile and then returned to Southern California to win the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

Plagued by gate problems throughout his career, Improbable was fractious while waiting for the gates to open but broke smoothly. Tom's d'Etat, however, went to his knees at the start under Joel Rosario and was several lengths behind the field by the time he recovered.

Mr. Buff led the way through slow fractions of :25.12, :49.74 and 1:13.36, with Improbable his closest pursuer in the run down the backstretch. Tom's d'Etat trailed.

Approaching the far turn, Ortiz asked Improbable for run, and the colt responded. He led into the stretch, the mile in 1:36.53 and was geared down in the final yards.

Produced from the A.P. Indy mare, Rare Event, Improbable was bred in Kentucky by St George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr.

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Baffert Breezes Derby Candidates Uncle Chuck, Authentic

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was a keen observer of workouts by Uncle Chuck and Authentic, two of his many Kentucky Derby prospects, putting in timed breezes at Del Mar near San Diego, Calif.

Uncle Chuck, who'll depart Tuesday for Saratoga and the $1 million Runhappy Travers Stakes next Saturday, covered five furlongs in 1:00.20, co-best of 71 officially timed at the distance.

Clocker Toby Turrell had the son of Uncle Mo going the first half-mile in :49.20 with gallop-outs of 1:12.80 for six furlongs and 1:39.60 for a mile that carried around to the backstretch of the track.

“I'm very happy with the work,” Baffert said. “He's all set now for next week and the big challenge there.”

Authentic went 4 furlongs in :50.20. The Kentucky Derby-bound son of Into Mischief's only loss in five starts came to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby and he most recently was a wire-to-wire narrow winner of the $1 million TVG.com Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

Juan Ochoa, in the irons for both Uncle Chuck and Authentic, had a hold on Authentic throughout.

“Just a little maintenance work,” said Baffert.

Another promising 3-year-old to work was Anneau d'Or, who went five furlongs from the gate in 1:01.60. Anneau d'Or was scratched from today's Shared Belief. Trainer Blaine Wright has expressed intentions to ship east for the Ellis Park Derby.

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Joy’s Rocket, Forester’s Turn Prove Best In Woodbine Stakes

Team Hanley's undefeated two-year-old filly Joy's Rocket was impressive in her stakes debut at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario, on Saturday, taking off in the $100,000 My Dear Stakes to win by 2 3/4 lengths under Luis Contreras.

Joy's Rocket launched to the lead in the 5 1/2-furlong Tapeta test and clocked fractions of :21.94 and :45.44 while prompted by Rocket Reload. The Steve Asmussen trainee shook off her main rival in the stretch and won her first stakes outing by nearly three lengths in 1:05.10.

Favored Road to Romance pressed three-wide early but settled into stalking position behind the front-runners and then made a bid moving into the stretch to get up for second-place, with Rotary rallying to her outside for third.

Emmeline rounded out the superfecta with Rocket Reload, supplement Queen Rhonda and Silent Mamba completing the run down.

Joy's Rocket was the 8-5 second choice after winning at first asking over Churchill Downs's dirt track in sloppy conditions on June 28. Today, she returned $5.50 to win.

“She was very professional pretty much the whole way. From the beginning of the race to the end, she was so professional and I was very confident with her,” praised Contreras after taking his second My Dear title (his first was with Dream It Is in 2017). “I saw the race at Churchill when she won. It was a muddy track and she just went to the lead. I wasn't too worried because horses with this kind of talent, I think it's easy to adjust to whichever track they go.”

Bred in Florida by Weston Thoroughbreds Training & Sales, the Anthony's Cross-Queenie's Pride filly is now two-for-two to start her career.

Forester's Turn Triumphs in Greenwood
A late decision to enter Forester's Turn in Saturday's $150,000 Greenwood Stakes Presented by Stella Artois at Woodbine proved to be profitable for Hall of Fame trainer Robert Tiller and owner Rolph Davis.

Supplemented to the six-furlong turf event for Ontario-bred 3-year-olds after training well following a recent victory at Woodbine, Forester's Turn put forth a courageous effort to win the afternoon's co-feature.

Forester's Turn and Celebratory waged war on the front-end racing noses apart through a :22.61 first quarter and half-mile in :44.83. They continued to duel into the stretch with the stalkers, Forester's Fortune, 3-5 favorite Artemus Citylimits and Barilko, fanning out wide.

Digging in down the lane, Forester's Turn pulled ahead of Celebratory mid-stretch and then held off Forester's Fortune in the final furlong to prevail by a half-length in 1:07.91.

Artemus Citylimits edged by Celebratory 2 1/2 lengths behind for the show dough while Last American Exit and Barilko completed the order of finish.

Sent postward as the 7-2 second choice, Forester's Turn paid $9.90 to win and combined with Forester's Fortune for an Old Forester exacta worth $48.50.

“He's very game, this horse, and that young fella that rode him, he's very game too,” said Tiller of rising star Kazushi Kimura, who reined home his second stakes winner of the meet. “And he's young. It's a great thing to be young. I wish I was young again, but I'm not.

“This is a nice horse,” added Tiller, who co-owned dam Eff Bee Eye with longtime partner Davis when the mare won the 2014 Nandi Stakes. “At the end of the day, he's got heart. All is well, everything went well.”

The homebred gelding has now won five of his seven career starts and more than $200,000 in earnings.

Live Thoroughbred racing continues on Sunday afternoon with the $100,000 Victoria Stakes headlining an 11-race program that gets underway at 1 p.m.

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Improbable Provides Baffert With Back-to-Back Whitneys

‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) scored back-to-back Grade I victories and provided his conditioner Bob Baffert with his second straight renewal of Saratoga’s prestigious GI Whitney S. Saturday with a dominant score in this ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Heavily Favored Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) missed the break and was relegated to last early as native New Yorker Mr Buff (Friend or Foe) took command, loping through early splits of :25.12 and :49.74 with 3-1 shot Improbable keeping close tabs from second. Improbable seized command from Mr Buff as three-quarters went in 1:13.36 with MGSW By My Standards (Goldencents) charging up behind him. Improbable charged clear at the top of the lane and it was all over from there as the flashy chestnut rolled home to a two-length victory. By My Standards held on for second over Tom’s d’Etat. Last term’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) could only manage fourth over a tiring Mr Buff.

“He got up really quick and he put me in the race,” said winning pilot Irad Ortiz. “I just took a little hold because Mr Buff looked like the speed of the race. I put him in second in the clear, like we wanted and went from there. He was comfortable. By the backside, we felt pressure but by his own he started picking it up. I let him do his thing because they were going really slow so I let him go early. When I asked him turning for home, he responded really well.

“Big race. Big race,” said co-owner WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden. “Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob [Baffert] had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good. Then they throw up kind of easy fractions. But, he’s just a different horse this year. That’s his second Grade I in a row. He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

As for the beaten favorite, Tom d’Etat, jockey Joel Rosario said, “He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on. He was standing fine, he just missed the break. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn’t take my time. I thought the pace was fine. Even after that, I was not too far from the lead. It looked like I was in a good spot. But stumbling coming out of the gate, I lost ground right away.”

A perfect three-for-three as a juvenile, including his first top level success in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable faced his first defeat when second in last term’s GII Rebel S. and filled the same spot behind Omaha Beach (War Front) in the GI Arkansas Derby last term. Fifth, but promoted to fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, the $200,000 KEESEP buy finished sixth in last year’s GI Preakness S., after which he was given a brief freshening. Making a successful comeback in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar, he was fourth in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and could only manage fifth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 2. Coming up just 3/4 of a length short of Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Improbable flashed signs of his impressive juvenile form when running off to a 3 1/4-length success in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. going 10 panels in Arcadia June 6.

Pedigree Notes:

Improbable is one of 10 Grade I winners, 30 graded winners and 87 stakes winners for his late sire City Zip. He is also one of 26 top-level scorers, 103 graded victors and 221 stakes winners produced by a daughter of A.P. Indy. Improbable is the first foal to race out of Rare Event, whose -year-old filly Redemption Day (Quality Road), a $180,000 KEESEP purchase by WinStar, broke her maiden July 9 and finished second last time July 30. The 11-year-old mare is also the dam of juvenile colt Snake Doctor

Saturday, Saratoga Racecourse
WHITNEY S.-GI, $695,000, Saratoga, 8-1, 4yo/up, 1 1/8m, 1:48.65, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 124, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
‘TDN Rising Star’ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC; B-St.
George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $400,000. Lifetime Record: 13-6-3-0,
$1,529,520. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk
   Nick Rating: A.
2–By My Standards, 122, c, 4, Goldencents–A Jealous Woman,
by Muqtarib. ($150,000 2yo ’18 OBSAPR). O-Allied Racing
Stable, LLC; B-Don Ladd (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $140,000.
3–Tom’s d’Etat, 124, h, 7, Smart Strike–Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s
Causeway. ($330,000 Ylg ’14 KEESEP). O-G M B Racing; B-SF
Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Albert M. Stall, Jr. $75,000.
Margins: 2, HF, 2HF. Odds: 3.25, 5.60, 1.00.
Also Ran: Code of Honor, Mr. Buff. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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