The Grade 1, $250,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap is a showcase for some of the best horses in the Breeders' Cup Sprint division each summer and this year's edition is no exception. Three millionaires are among the quintet who entered the race – Whitmore ($3.1 million), Firenze Fire ($1.9 million) and Mind Control ($1 million).
In spite of this, young upstart Volatile is the one to beat. Lexitonian rounds out the field and can't be totally counted out either based on his best prior efforts.
In somewhat similar fashion to the COVID-19 delayed 3-year-old division in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, some horses' 2020 campaigns were delayed this winter and spring as tracks around the country were closed. The same thing has happened in other divisions, such as the sprint division, in which Volatile, who was off from November to near the end of April, returned to put in two powerhouse performances worthy of top billing in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap. Volatile debuted as a 3-year-old last July and won at first asking before finishing second then winning again, all at six furlongs.
Whitmore finished second in February in his 2020 debut and has won both starts since, in March and April. His trainer was planning to run him in an allowance race at Keeneland on July 12 as a prep for this race but decided to just train him up to it, and that's fine as Whitmore has won off short layoffs before. In his only previous foray to Saratoga, Whitmore won the Forego Stakes in 2018 and this six furlong trip is his forte, evidenced by a record of 12 wins in 21 starts. However, this year his three efforts yielded 111, 113 and 114 figures, which arguably are shy of what Volatile has earned in his last two races.
Firenze Fire won a stakes race as a two year old at Saratoga back in 2017, and he's won a lot of races in between in amassing a record of 11 victories from 26 starts. Last month at Belmont, Firenze Fire won the True North Stakes rather easily with a 111 figure which may seem low but being as it was only his second start after four months off, there is potential to improve back to the level when he won the Fabulous Strike Stakes last fall with a 119 figure, or when second in the 2019 Vanderbilt with a 117 figure.
Mind Control is another classy horse, with a seven for 13 career record including two wins at Saratoga in two tries. One of those came in the Hopeful Stakes in only the third start of his career in 2018. The other came last August in the H. Allen Jerkins Stakes. After five months off, Mind Control returned to win his first two races of 2020, with a career- best 113 figure effort in the Tom Fool Handicap at this distance in March. Returning on a sloppy track in June, Mind Control was no factor in the Carter Handicap and I have no issue drawing a line through that race. Like Volatile, Mind Control is a 4-year-old who can improve and contend in this race.
Lexitonian won the Concern Stakes last July and the Chick Lang Stakes on Preakness weekend last May but has only won one time in five races since. That win came at the end of May and although he beat Hog Creek Hustle, who had finished second to Mind Control in last year's Jerkins Stakes at Saratoga, the figure was just 101. As such, I think it's asking a bit too much of Lexitonian to beat any of the other four top sprinters in this race.
Win Contender:
Volatile
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Grade 1
Race 10 at Saratoga
Saturday, July 25 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000
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