The Derby 20 Presented By NYRA Bets: Shared Belief Loss Doesn’t Hurt Honor A. P.

Tiz the Law has done nothing wrong approaching the Travers, and though this Saturday's race is certainly not a “must-win” scenario for the Belmont Stakes winner, it will be an intriguing match-up at the Kentucky Derby distance. Unless the Barclay Tagg trainee is beaten double-digit lengths, Tiz the Law should remain the favorite on most Derby lists, including the Paulick Report's first 2020 edition of The Derby 20.

Honor A. P. holds the second spot this week, despite his loss in last Saturday's Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. The race was a bit short and it wasn't the end goal, so it shouldn't be a setback for the John Shirreffs-trained colt on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Where did your favorite end up on the list? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in the first edition of The Derby 20!

Tiz the Law
Connections
Pedigree
272
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
1st
Paulick Report Ranking
Honor A. P.
Connections
Pedigree
140
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
2nd
Paulick Report Ranking
Art Collector
Connections
Pedigree
100
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
3rd
Paulick Report Ranking
King Guillermo
Connections
Pedigree
90
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
4th
Paulick Report Ranking
Uncle Chuck
Connections
Pedigree
20
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
5th
Paulick Report Ranking
Ny Traffic
Connections
Pedigree
110
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
6th
Paulick Report Ranking
Thousand Words
Connections
Pedigree
83
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
7th
Paulick Report Ranking
Authentic
Connections
Pedigree
200
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
8th
Paulick Report Ranking
Sole Volante
Connections
Pedigree
30
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
9th
Paulick Report Ranking
Country Grammer
Connections
Pedigree
50
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
10th
Paulick Report Ranking
Max Player
Connections
Pedigree
40
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
11th
Paulick Report Ranking
Shared Sense
Connections
Pedigree
20
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
12th
Paulick Report Ranking
Dean Martini
Connections
Pedigree
20
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
13th
Paulick Report Ranking
Dr Post
Connections
Pedigree
83
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
14th
Paulick Report Ranking
Enforceable
Connections
Pedigree
43
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
15th
Paulick Report Ranking
Modernist
Connections
Pedigree
70
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
16th
Paulick Report Ranking
Major Fed
Connections
Pedigree
38
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
17th
Paulick Report Ranking
Caracaro
Connections
Pedigree
20
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
18th
Paulick Report Ranking
Ete Indien
Connections
Pedigree
74
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
19th
Paulick Report Ranking
Anneau d'Or
Connections
Pedigree
32
Derby Points
Next Expected Start
20th
Paulick Report Ranking

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Reversal Of Fortune For Top Two Finishers In Shared Belief

Approaching the track to greet his returning Shared Belief Stakes winner Thousand Words, Bob Baffert couldn't help but smile and say, “We don't need Uncle Chuck.”

Then, with his next breath: “That was weird. That was a weird run race.”

Statements that fairly well summed up the Shared Belief at Del Mar, a Kentucky Derby prep race for the first, and let us pray last, time ever. The COVID-19-necessitated move of the Run for the Roses to September 5 put the Shared Belief in line as a prelim for West Coast-based Derby hopes and made it a spot for Baffert to choose from his array of 3-year-old standouts and John Shirreffs to run Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A.P.

Baffert entered three – undefeated (2-for-2) Uncle Chuck and Cezanne plus Thousand Words, whose Derby stock had dipped with three straight defeats. He worked Uncle Chuck on Saturday morning in preparation for the $1 million Travers Stakes next Saturday at Saratoga and scratched him from the Shared Belief.

The race then unfolded strangely with 1-5 favorite Honor A.P. getting bumped at the start by Cezanne, moving up to press the pace set by Thousand Words on the backstretch before dropping a length behind, going three paths wide turning into the stretch and surging too late to catch the wire-to-wire leader and losing by three-quarters of a length.

“You wouldn't think a Baffert horse is gonna pay $20 (actually $20.40) in a four-horse field,” Baffert said with a wry grin. His assessment: something about Del Mar had brought out the best in Thousand Words.

“I thought he had a chance to win today,” Baffert said. “I could tell he was a different horse down here. His whole mind changed. His color changed. He had soured out on me, but we got him going the right way. I think he earned his way to the Derby.”

The 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points from the Shared Belief increased Thousand Words' total to 83 and vaulted him to No. 7 on the list. The opportunity is there should the owners – Albaugh Family Stables of Dennis Albaugh and Jason Loustch, and B. Wayne Hughes' Spendthirft Farm – choose. It appears to be a logical path toward recouping more of the $1-million spent on the colt at the Keeneland September sale in 2018.

Thousand Words was accorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 104, which was 13 points higher than the son of Pioneerof the Nile's previous best in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December. Honor A.P. received a Beyer of 102, identical to his number in the Santa Anita Derby victory.

Honor A.P.'s 140 Derby points is third behind Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law (272) and Baffert's recent Haskell Invitational champ Authentic (200).

“If you liked Honor A.P. as your Derby horse before, it (Shared Belief) didn't change anything,” Daily Racing Form correspondent Brad Free said Sunday morning.

Mike Smith, aboard for all five of Honor A.P.'s starts, was quick to point out one change in the routine leading up to the race. Due to COVID-19 protocols, jockeys are prohibited from access to the stable area in the mornings and cannot ride workouts. Trainer John Shirreffs tried unsuccessfully to get an exemption so Smith could be aboard for the colt's final work a week before the race.

“I haven't been able to get on him in the mornings and I think that's made a difference,” Smith said. “He's just been going along there not doing much in the mornings.  I need to be on him.  But that's the way it is now; just the way it is.”

Shirreffs' comment, provided by text: “Horses know the difference between an exercise rider and a jockey so they respond differently in their work. Jockeys also have the acute awareness of the horses' effort. Trainers prepare horses by increasing workloads. The riders have to communicate to the horses in subtle situations of asking for a little more or saying that's enough for today.

“Why take the best we have and not allow them to help horses?”

Thousand Words and Honor A.P. both came out of the race well, their trainers said. Cezanne was “a little tired” after losing stamina in the 1 1/16-mile race.

 

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Week in Review: Faves Fail to Show on Saturday, but Excuses Abound

This past Saturday wasn’t a great day to be a favorite in an open stakes race at the nation’s premier race meets. Chalk horses went a collective one-for-seven at Saratoga and Del Mar, and the list of excuses included stutter-step starts, bumps leaving the gate, stretch-run roughhousing, getting disqualified, and being dueled into defeat in internal pace battles.

Tight finishes in several stakes elevated the interest level, although the results in general did not lend clarity to the nationwide divisional races with the GI Kentucky Derby inside the five-week mark and the Breeders’ Cup Championships now three months out.

At the Spa, faves went zero-for-five, with the GI Personal Ensign S. setting the tone early in the day. The 9-1 Vexatious (Giant’s Causeway), who hadn’t won since scoring in a 1 3/8 miles turf stakes at Del Mar two summers ago, ran the race of her life at age six while attending the pace over nine furlongs on dirt. She got first run on a tiring speedster, then braced for the onslaught of heavy favorite Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute). Last year’s distaff champ looked like she’d inhale the determined bay, but Vexatious dug in for a spirited fight, shifting outward and exchanging bumps in deep stretch before prevailing by a neck and surviving a foul claim and inquiry.

The win was a first Grade I triumph for both Vexatious and trainer Jack Sisterson, who also picked up his first career win at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign. Vexatious earned an automatic entry to the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 7 at Keeneland, where Sisterson is primarily based.

In the nine-furlong GI Whitney S., the 3-1 Improbable (City Zip), who has a history of getting hot and bothered in the starting gate, held up the start. The Bob Baffert trainee eventually settled down, but the delay might have contributed to the unraveling of even-money favorite Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), who missed the break and came out four lengths behind the field. This altered the pace complexion of the Whitney, leaving 29-1 long shot Mr. Buff (Friend or Foe) sailing solo on the lead through soft splits with Improbable tracking in second and Tom’s d’Etat relegated to the back of the pack.

Improbable, on his way to a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, swatted away Mr. Buff at will on the far turn, opening up by two lengths in the stretch under steady urging. By My Standards (Goldencents) picked up the pieces in second. Tom’s d’Etat checked in third, ending his four-race winning streak, but with an asterisk attached because of his trip woes.

The 7-1 upset by Echo Town (Speightstown) in the seven-furlong GI H. Allen Jerkens S. Presented by Runhappy didn’t at all seem fluky despite another favorite–the 2-1 No Parole (Violence)–faltering. The Jerkens was a deep 11-horse affair, and Echo Town broke with alacrity and was initially within three lengths of a hotly contested lead. But he settled nicely at the tail of the main flight on the inside, then edged outward for clear passage, commencing a rally a half-mile out that quickly picked off most of the pack.

The leaders lined up four across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Echo Town’s widest bid included a deep-stretch resurgence that none of his peers could match, and the Steve Asmussen trainee ended up drilling a pretty good bunch of 3-year-old sprinters by 3 1/2 lengths.

Shifting, drifting, bumping, and grinding through the final furlong of the GII Bowling Green S. at 11 furlongs on the turf affected five of the six starters, and the stewards placed the blame on Sadler’s Joy (Kitten’s Joy), who was DQ’d from his neck win and placed fourth. New York-bred Cross Border (English Channel) was elevated to victory after crossing the wire second. The result could portend a nice August start at the Spa for New York-breds, as fellow state-bred Tiz the Law (Constitution) figures to start heavily favored in this Saturday’s GI Runhappy Travers S.

In the nightcap, 4-1 Cariba (Cairo Prince), completed the stakes blanking of Spa faves with a half-length tally in the Caress S. over 5 1/2 furlongs on the lawn.

 

Meanwhile, on the Left Coast…

Honor A. P. (Honor Code) looked flat and unmotivated when checking in second at 1-5 odds in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. But even before he encountered trip trouble on the track, the pre-race vibe signaled that this could be a “trap” race for the top West Coast candidate for the Kentucky Derby.

Honor A. P., who previously performed like a more-distance-the-better type of 3-year-old, was cutting back half a furlong to 1 1/16 miles from his GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, and the dynamics of the four-horse Shared Belief meant that the ridgling would have be closer to the pace than was ideal for his running style. It didn’t help that Cezanne (Curlin) swerved directly into him at the gate break, and jockey Mike Smith (as he often does aboard odds-on favorites in route races) guided Honor A. P. to the back and outside of trouble, even though this meant giving up three paths of real estate into the clubhouse bend.

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), meanwhile, broke fluidly and settled in at the fence to be the 9-1 pacemaker. Entering the backstretch, Honor A. P. advanced under his own power to shadow the speed a half-length back, but Cezanne again became a pesky presence about a half mile out when he pushed up from between rivals to claim second, causing Honor A. P. to lose a position while edging outward again for another three-deep journey through the far turn.

Cezanne narrowly led off the bend, but Thousand Words punched back under urging at the rail while Honor A. P. couldn’t gain any traction on the outside. Honor A. P. re-engaged late to finish second, three-quarters of a length behind Thousand Words. But his resurgence had more to do with Cezanne backpedaling out of the picture than it did with Honor A. P. finding that unmatchable late gear he displayed in his Santa Anita Derby win.

In the aftermath of the Shared Belief, Thousand Words (104 Beyer) has regained some of his early-season luster after the Bob Baffert trainee fell off the Derby radar for a stretch between March and June. But Honor A. P. is likely to emerge as the more dangerous threat heading to Louisville, because trainer John Shirreffs didn’t have him fully cranked for his final Derby prep, and nothing about his taxing trip worked in his favor.

Later on the card, the 19-10 Collusion Illusion (Twirling Candy) emerged as the lone unscathed favorite on Saturday’s slate of national stakes, rallying from out of the clouds (or out of the Del Mar fog, to be more precise) to nail a GI Bing Crosby S. photo-finish win by a nose after patiently watching a six-way scramble for the lead disintegrate. The Mark Glatt trainee was the lone 3-year-old in the six-furlong field of nine.

 

Turfway Park Update

During the same earnings conference call last Thursday in which Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI) chief executive officer Bill Carstanjen detailed long-term plans for the gaming corporation’s desire to rid itself of Arlington International Racecourse, Carstanjen also provided an update to the redevelopment of Turfway Park and its “extension” betting facility a dozen miles to the northeast in Newport, Kentucky, that will be generating purse money for the track’s Dec. 2-31 holiday meet.

“We finished demolishing the existing grandstand at Turfway Park in the second quarter, and the racetrack itself with a new state-of-the-art artificial racing surface called Tapeta will be completed by the end of August,” Carstanjen said. “During the second quarter, we completed the architectural design and site development plans. We will begin construction of the new horse racing machine (HRM) and grandstand facility as soon as we obtain the required permits and complete the necessary site improvements. The updated design reflects a floor plan of approximately 155,000 square feet and includes a simulcast facility, a racing grandstand and event space for groups and banquets, racehorse owner and VIP player accommodations; 44,500 square feet of gaming floor that can accommodate up to 1,200 HRMs, and three food and beverage venues, including a sports bar designed to accommodate sports wagering in the event it is approved in Kentucky.

“Based on the finalization of the design for the facility, total project capital for Turfway Park is projected to be approximately $200 million, which includes the Turfway Park acquisition costs and other previously approved capital. This capital investment will be completed over the next 15 to 18 months. The increase of approximately $45 million over previously provided estimates is primarily driven by increased site work requirements and a larger racing and gaming facility. Our team completed an additional analysis of the Northern Kentucky market and believes that the market demographics and competitive landscape can clearly support this level of investment and will generate a strong return on capital for our shareholders.

“With respect to our Turfway Park extension in Newport, Kentucky, we’ve made excellent progress on this project. Our team has completed all of the site work and the structural improvements needed to the building. We anticipate that the additional interior construction will be completed by the end of September in preparation for a grand opening [with up to 500 HRMs] by early October. This timing will provide two months of operations to generate much needed purse money for Turfway Park’s December live Thoroughbred race meet.”

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Thousand Words Re-Enters Kentucky Derby Picture, Beating Honor A.P. In Shared Belief

Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm's Thousand Words made every pole a winner Saturday in upsetting the $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes by three-quarters of a length at Del Mar near San Diego, Calif. In the process, he may have bought himself a ticket to the 2020 Kentucky Derby, to be run on Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs.

The Pioneerof the Nile colt, ridden by Abel Cedillo and trained by Bob Baffert, took the lead right out of the gate and held off all challenges, including one from the 1-5 favorite Honor A.P. under Mike Smith. The latter was bumped from the outside coming out of the starting gate by Cezanne, a Baffert-trained stablemate of the winner who veered inwardly at the break under Flavien Prat.

The 1 1/16-mile feature went with only four runners when two of its 3-year-olds — Uncle Chuck and Anneau d'Or — were scratched Saturday morning.

“He (trainer Bob Baffert) just told me to warm him up real well, then get him out of there,” said Cedillo. “Then see what happens. He broke well and I saw I could take the lead, so I did. He was going along there steady, steady, steady. Then we got it done.”

“I told Abel (Cedillo) to jump him out of there and I thought he and Cezanne would be 1-2,” said Baffert. “Turning for home I could tell that Honor A.P. wasn't running like he usually does. Cezanne got really tired, but Thousand Words … I could tell when we got down here that he was a different horse from Los Alamitos and the real Thousand Words showed up today. His whole mind changed. His color has changed. He had soured out on me, but we got him going the right way. I think he earned his way to the Derby.”

With the victory, Thousand Words earned 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, and now ranks seventh on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard among potential runners, with 83 points.

Updated Kentucky Derby points leaderboard

Thousand Words covered the distance in 1:43.85 after setting fractions of :23.89, :47.93, 1:12.33 and 1:37.44. He returned $20.40 and $3.40. Honor A.P. returned $2.10 to place. There was no show betting.

John Sondereker's Kiss Today Goodbye finished third and Coolmore partners' Cezanne was fourth and last.

Thousand Words earned $60,000 for his tally and pushed his bankroll to $327,000, after winning his fourth race in his seventh start. Produced from the Pomeroy mare, Pomeroys Pistol, he was bred in Florida by Hardacre Farm and sold for $1 million by Brookdale Sales at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

The stakes win is the third of the meet for rider Cedillo, but his first in the Shared Belief. He now has five stakes wins at Del Mar.

As for Honor A.P., Mike Smith said: “He ran well, but we're disappointed he didn't win. I haven't been able to get on him in the mornings and I think that's made a difference. He's just been going along there not doing much in the mornings. I need to be on him and get more out of him. But that's the way it is now; that's just the way it is. This distance (mile and one-sixteenth) is too short for him, too. Just not his day.”

 

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