Kentucky Downs Turf Pick of the Day for Sept. 5

Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato give their best bet for each day of racing during the FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs. $100 Win/Place format; highest bankroll at the end wins.

Steve Sherack: Race 2 – Don't think we'll see anything near the 20-1 morning-line quote, but Gamble's Orb can certainly run this field off their heels at a price in her grass debut. She flashed big speed in her first two goes in the Gulfstream slop, dueling and finishing a close second June 25, then dueling and tiring to a well-beaten third July 23. Her dam Forest Gamble (Forest Wildcat) was a razor sharp winner in her lone career start over the Woodbine synthetic, and she has produced a pair of stakes winners over that surface as well. Orb, sire of P. G. Johnson S. winner Orbolution, is certainly capable of siring a turf runner and Gamble's Orb blew out three furlongs over the Palm Meadows turf in :34 3/5 (1/4) Aug. 24. Trainer Joe Orseno shipped in from his South Florida base to capture last year's GIII Runhappy Turf Sprint S. with Imprimis. Selection: #2 Gamble's Orb (20-1).

Brian DiDonato: Race 6 – The 2-year-old maiden races are some of the most interesting and typically wide-open events at Kentucky Downs, and there were several babies who caught my eye on this opening day card. I'll make Go Bali Go my play. He ran a sneaky good race first out after getting squeezed out at the start and making a middle move behind a very slow pace. The fifth-place run when switching to the dirt can be excused–he dueled through a pace rated fast that day on a surface he probably doesn't prefer. His dam was dramatically better on grass and her other progeny have leaned that way too. Freshman sire Bal a Bali was also a turf horse, and his early runners have seemed turfy for the most part as well. I'm hoping for a bit better than the 8-1 morning line, and think Go Bali Go has a solid shot to put it all together this time around. Selection: #4 Go Bali Go (8-1).

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NYRA Partners With Three Tracks For Saturday’s Cross Country Pick 5

The New York Racing Association Inc. (NYRA) will host a Cross Country Pick 5 featuring action from historic Saratoga Race Course, Monmouth Park, Ellis Park and Woodbine on Saturday.

Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/cross-country-wagers.

The four-track wager will kick off at Monmouth with a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden contest for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up in Race 8 at 3:33 p.m. Eastern. Trainer Chad Brown will send out a pair of entrants, including the British-bred Capital Allocation, who will be making her career debut. The $384,392 purchase at the 2019 Tattersalls October Yearling Sale will face a field that includes stablemate Autostrada, who finished on the board in her third career start last out when third on August 8 at Monmouth. Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will send out Endless Front and Candy Lua for the race at the Oceanport, New Jersey-based track.

Woodbine will get in on the action with a 6 1/2-furlong allowance contest for fillies and mares 3-and-up competing over the Tapeta track in Race 7 at 4:13 p.m. Imagery has posted back-to-back runner-up finishes for trainer Michael Trombetta with both efforts coming at the Rexdale, Ontario track, while the Kevin Attard-trained Hard Street will look for class relief after finishing sixth in the Alywow on July 31 at Woodbine.

Alternating back to Monmouth, a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-olds and up in a claiming contest in Race 10 at 4:33 p.m. will comprise the third leg. Trainer Wayne Potts will send out Duncastle, a last-out winner on July 23 at Monmouth.

Ellis Park, located in Henderson, Kentucky, will join the sequence with a one-mile turf maiden turf contest for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up in Race 8 at 5:10 p.m. Closet Shopper, trained by Gregory Foley, finished third at the track last out on July 18 and will be looking to break through in her ninth career start while listed at 3-1 on the morning line. The Dale Romans-trained Temper Time, 9-2, also ran second in her previous start at Ellis Park, finishing as the runner-up on July 30.

Saratoga will conclude the wager with a 6 1/2-furlong main track sprint for 3-year-olds and up in Race 10 at 5:37 p.m. Brown, who is looking to secure his fourth Saratoga training title for the meet that concludes on Monday, will look to bolster his win total by sending out Crowded Trade and Hometown. Crowded Trade, the runner-up in the Grade 3 Gotham in March at Aqueduct Racetrack, competed on the Triple Crown trail this, running third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino in April at the Big A before running fifth in the Grade 1 Preakness in May at Pimlico. He finished third last out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam on August 1 at the Spa. Hometown, a chestnut son of Constitution, finished second to eventual graded-stakes winner First Captain last out in a May 29 allowance tilt at Belmont traveling a one-turn mile.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, September 4:
Leg A: Monmouth – Race 8 (3:33 p.m.)
Leg B: Woodbine – Race 7 (4:13 p.m.)
Leg C: Monmouth – Race 10 (4:33 p.m.)
Leg D: Ellis Park – Race 8 (5:10 p.m.)
Leg E: Saratoga– Race 10 (5:37 p.m.)

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‘A Fascinating Exercise For The Handicapper’: Kentucky Downs’ Average Win Payoff $16.73 In 2020

When it comes to Kentucky Downs making its case as the best betting product in America, the proof is in the payoffs.

Last year's average return for a $1 exacta at Kentucky Downs was $65.32, $75.99 for the $1 double, $269.20 for the 50-cent trifecta, $374.06 for the 50-cent Pick 3 and $23,076 for the 50-cent Pick 5. Even the $2 win payoff average was a healthy $16.73.

The all-grass FanDuel Meet at Kentucky Downs runs this Sunday, Labor Day Monday and Sept. 6, 8, 9, 11 and 12. First post is 12:20 p.m. Central.

“One of the highlights for handicappers and for fans is that you get this amalgamation of horses from different racing circuits around the country that you normally only get at a meet like the Breeders' Cup,” said Ken Kirchner, Kentucky Downs' Director of Wagering Development: “When you have more than $2 million a day in purses, not only are your stakes races this mix of New York, Kentucky, Florida, California and other horses, you have that in the maiden and allowance races across the board. It's just a fascinating exercise for the handicapper to say, 'Gosh, I can find great value every single race of this meet.'”

Kentucky Downs offers full fields and large betting pools — the formula for big payouts. Last year Kentucky Downs averaged a $3,295 payoff for its 50-cent Pick Four, with the betting pool averaging $357,778, according to an Equibase analysis. With the Pick 4 one of racing's most popular bets, Kentucky Downs has added a third daily Pick 4 to its betting menu for 2021.

Kirchner said there “is not another meet in the country that matches up with Kentucky Downs” as far as betting value. Kirchner is an internationally recognized expert on simulcasting and wagering who, as a senior vice president for both industry organizations, was instrumental in creation of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) for the Breeders' Cup and the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association.

“I would almost equate this one-week meet at Kentucky Downs to Royal Ascot, where it is so unique in terms of the racing surface, the mix of horses and horsemen, the top jockeys all coming in from around the country,” Kirchner said. “This has that Royal Ascot meets county fair-type feel at Kentucky Downs.”

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Kirchner also was involved in expanding Kentucky Downs' 2021 King of the Turf Handicapping Challenge presented by Daily Racing Form into a trio of two-day handicapping contests spanning the entire meet.

Seats at the 2022 NHC will be awarded to the top finishers in all three individual competitions, with seats for the 2021 BCBC also up for grabs in the final two contests. The overall winner who participates in all three contests over the six dates will be crowned National Turf Handicapping Champion and earn additional prize money, along with the National Turf Handicapping Champion Trophy presented by BetMakers.

The separate online tournaments are live-money events, meaning that entrants use a real bankroll and get to keep whatever they might earn. All contest bets must be placed through the TVG, 4NJBets or Xpressbet advance-deposit wagering platforms.

“We're excited about the new tournament format,” Kirchner said. “It's a very unique format. With the betting value and being a live-money contest, players have a chance to turn a small bankroll into a big reward.”

For more information or to sign up, contact tournament director Brian Skirka at bskirka@monmouthpark.com.

Click here for complete rules

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TIF: Fixed Odds Betting For Racing Is A ‘Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity’

Launched in the summer of 2018, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF) has sought improved outcomes for American Thoroughbred racing's “voluntary” participants – horse owners and horseplayers. As the sport's primary investment sources, horse owners and horseplayers drive much of racing's value chain – buying/breeding horses to race and betting on those races. Every stakeholder in the sport depends on these two groups participating financially, paying bills and placing bets.

TIF believes that by improving outcomes for those groups, the entire ecosystem of the sport will be improved. TIF published a series of foundational white papers in its first year, outlining a series of ideas that could yield such outcomes. Among them: reduced bet pricing, modernized rules, increased transparency, improved access (and reduced cost) to data used to inform bettors and an introduction of fixed odds betting for racing to complement existing pari-mutuel offerings.

While some industry organizations have spent years focusing on other important issues – notably safety and welfare – the ball has otherwise been dropped as it relates to the sustainability of the sport through wagering.

Many racetrack operators have pivoted into multi-platform technology businesses as wagering has shifted largely from in-person, brick-and-mortar betting to online, mobile and computer-robotic wagering. Relative to racing-related purse generation, this has not benefitted horse owners. In 2020, TIF estimated mainstream horseplayers, those betting less than $1 million annually, reduced their share of total racing wagering by approximately 63 percent from 2003.

The future might be different.

NEW JERSEY AND THE WORLD

In February 2020, Monmouth Park operators Darby Development signed a 10-year deal with Australian firm The BetMakers to manage the fixed odds betting business. In early August, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy signed a bill which enables such betting on the sport – for live and simulcast races – for the state's customers.

“We feel the support for fixed odds as a solution to facilitate growth in the horse racing industry in the U.S. gaining momentum throughout the industry,” said BetMakers CEO Todd Buckingham after the vote. “We are excited about what this opportunity means for the racing industry in New Jersey and more broadly in the U.S.”

One notable concern often raised about introducing fixed odds to racing is the loss of business from higher revenue-sharing bets in pari-mutuel pools, typically win betting, which shift to the new option where odds are locked-in, but revenue back to purses is often lower.

TIF supported the concept, publishing a white paper on the topic in February 2019, and is excited by the possibilities it brings for the industry.

“The American pari-mutuel monopoly has not been kind to the sport or horsemen in the internet era,” said TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings.

“Pari-mutuel wagering has been allowed to stagnate – there has been little innovation in the space. Adjusted for inflation since 2000, overall pari-mutuel wagering on racing is down 50% in the U.S., and most of that occurred while racing had a veritable monopoly in online betting. Our customer base has changed, the market has changed, but racing's betting business stagnated. Fixed odds competition should be good for racing, introduce racing to legal sports betting customers across America and offer an additional option for existing customers.”

But BetMakers is not banking on fixed odds for racing in America alone.

The Australian company recently completed the acquisition of the racing, tote and digital assets from Sportech, one of three companies which had provided pari-mutuel betting services to North American racing.

In an interview with SBC Americas, BetMakers chief operating officer Jake Henson outlined the long-term vision for the firm.

“Our mission is to create the world's largest global racing network that rewards all industry stakeholders and provides a sustainable ongoing funding model for the sport,” said Henson.

The first fixed-odds service provider in U.S. racing is also a big pari-mutuel betting player too. The complement of fixed odds betting to existing pari-mutuel offerings is attractive to one of America's biggest operators.

OPTIMISM FROM NYRA, HORSEMEN

David O'Rourke, the New York Racing Association's chief executive officer, glowed about the possibilities of fixed odds bets for racing in his address at the Jockey Club's Round Table in mid-August.

“A marketplace where most sports books offer racing should be our goal. Fixed odds on simpler wagers alongside pari-mutuel exotics is a potential winning combination, offering the new player a familiar entry point while maintaining deep exotic pools for our more experienced players.

“There are a lot of risks, challenges, hesitations, and hurdles to realize a market where fixed odds and ADW offerings come together. But we here at NYRA believe the rollout of sports betting is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.”

Joe Applebaum, president of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, embraced fixed odds as “inevitable” a day after O'Rourke at the Racing & Gaming Conference in Saratoga Springs in mid-August.

“Typically, horsemen sit on a panel like this and throw up all sorts of reasons why we shouldn't change and we should stick with pari-mutuel,” Appelbaum said. “But I would say that it's inevitable, maybe in six months or maybe in six years, there will be a mix of bookmaking and pari-mutuel wagering in this country, and in just about any jurisdiction. We should keep our eyes open, and we shouldn't be scared.”

FIXED ODDS ONLY NEW FOR U.S. CUSTOMERS

Cummings notes that American track operators, and a subsidiary of 1/ST (formerly The Stronach Group), have enjoyed revenue from fixed odds betting for years through contracts between tracks, the subsidiary (XB Net) and foreign bookmakers.

“Several European bookmakers have shared with TIF, separately, that total betting on U.S. racing at fixed odds from European customers exceeds 1 billion British pounds annually, the equivalent of nearly 13% of total U.S. pari-mutuel handle. It is beyond time for the American market to expand and offer such bets to American customers on American races.”

Upon the publishing of fixed odds regulations by New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement, followed by the completion of agreements between New Jersey bookmakers, American tracks and their representative horsemen's groups, fixed odds bets can be offered by registered New Jersey betting operators to their customers. Pari-mutuel betting remains unchanged.

The New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NJTHA) has been at the forefront of sports betting legalization in America. Their suit against the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) and professional sports leagues, later combined with one from then New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (and assumed by Governor Murphy) paved the way for legal sports betting to be adopted by states.

Through the end of July 2021, more than $17.3 billion has been bet, with over $1.2 billion in revenue to the state, through legal New Jersey bookmakers since June 2018.

When fixed odds bets for racing are first offered for New Jersey customers, the numbers will undoubtedly be small to start. More states are believed to be considering expanding offerings to include racing, but there is no doubt New Jersey is going first…again.

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