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Taking Stock: Gun Runner Flexes Candy Ride/Storm Cat Nick

Two sons of Candy Ride (Arg)–Gun Runner and Twirling Candy–were represented by three 2-year-old Grade l winners over the weekend, and do you know one thing they had in common? Each was produced by a Storm Cat-line mare. This affinity for the Storm Cat line was also an important feature of Candy Ride's own success, and breeders appear to be copying that formula with his sons. It's not surprising; it's something that usually happens when a stallion is successful with the females of another sire line, and this type of repetition of a successful pattern is what's known as a nick–something that's been around as long as people have been breeding racehorses.

Three Chimneys's Gun Runner, whose first crop is two, was represented by two of the top-level winners: Gl Hopeful winner Gunite, from black-type winner Simple Surprise, a daughter of Cowboy Cal (by Giant's Causeway, a son of Storm Cat); and Gl Spinaway winner Echo Zulu, out of Gll winner Letgomyecho, by Menifee (by Harlan, a son of Storm Cat).

Lane's End's Twirling Candy, the best and most proven son of Candy Ride to date, is the sire of Gl Del Mar Futurity winner Pinehurst, who's from unplaced Giant Win, by Giant's Causeway. Note that Twirling Candy's current Gl Preakness winner Rombauer is bred similarly. Rombauer's dam is by Cowboy Cal, who as noted above is by Giant's Causeway.

Giant's Causeway is also the broodmare sire of Gun Runner, making Gun Runner a product of the same Candy Ride/Storm Cat nick as his Grade l winners. However, when Gun Runner is bred to mares with either Giant's Causeway or Storm Cat in their pedigrees, a duplication to one or the other takes place. Essentially, breeders who send Storm Cat-line mares to Gun Runner are copying the pattern that produced him and are consciously inbreeding as well to Storm Cat, one of the great modern stallions, or to his best racing and sire son Giant's Causeway, if a mare by the latter or one of his sons is used.

Gunite is inbred 3×3 to Giant's Causeway, and Echo Zulu is 4×4 to Storm Cat.

Gun Runner's wins included the Breeders' Cup Classic during his 2017 Horse of the Year campaign | Breeders' Cup/Eclipse Sportswire

For Gun Runner, getting two Grade l-winning 2-year-olds in the first crop is a big deal, and this achievement marks the Horse of the Year, who was best at four and five, as something special. It's natural to expect that his offspring should continue to get better with age, giving him a high ceiling to anticipate.

But there's more to Gun Runner already. He also has two Grade ll winners, and their dam's pedigrees also contain Storm Cat. Pappacap, winner of the Gll Best Pal, is from a Glll-placed daughter of Scat Daddy (Johannesburg/Hennessy/Storm Cat), making him 4×5 to Storm Cat; and Wicked Halo, who won the Gll Adirondack, is out of the Tapit mare Just Wicked, who also won the Adirondack. Just Wicked's dam, black-type winner Wicked Deed, is by Harlan's Holiday (Harlan), and Wicked Halo, therefore, is 4×5 to Storm Cat.

Three of these four–Gunite, Echo Zulu, and Wicked Halo–are raced by Winchell Thoroughbreds, which raced Gun Runner in partnership with Three Chimneys. Winchell also raced Tapit, and it's no surprise that Wicked Halo is a homebred from a mare by their standout Gainesway sire. Winchell bred Gunite and bought Echo Zulu, a half-sister to Gl winner Echo Town (Speightstown) and Glll winner J Boys Echo (Mineshaft), for $300,000 as a Keeneland September yearling.

Steve Asmussen trained Gun Runner, and he trains the Winchell trio.

Sire Clusters

First off, let me say that by speaking of the stallions in a pedigree, I'm not diminishing the importance of physical attributes nor the contributions of the female family, which is as important. The dam of Echo Zulu, for example, was already an accomplished black-type producer before her Gun Runner filly won at the highest level.

And Gun Runner, an attractive and refined 16.2-hand specimen, himself is a product of a great female line that stretches back for generations full of high-class runners. Closer up, Gun Runner is from Grade ll winner Quiet Giant–a half-sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam and fellow Three Chimneys stallion and Grade l winner Funtastic.

However, stallions have exponentially more foals than mares, and sire patterns–not just nicks, or sire-line crosses, as they are also known, but also clusters of favorable sires–are more easily discernible in pedigrees.

Lane's End stalwart Candy Ride | Lane's End

Candy Ride is a Fappiano-line stallion from an unusual path (Ride the Rails/ Cryptoclearance/ Fappiano), and he's had success with other lines aside from Storm Cat, such as with A.P. Indy and Fappiano himself through other, more familiar branches.

Gun Runner, for example, is bred on the Candy Ride/Storm Cat sire-line cross, but his dam also has Fappiano in her pedigree, making Gun Runner 4×4 to Fappiano. Therefore, in his case, the cluster of Storm Cat and Fappiano form a favorable basis.

Current 3-year-old Candy Ride Grade l winner Rock Your World is from an Empire Maker (Unbridled/Fappiano) mare whose dam is by Giant's Causeway; therefore, he's also 4×4 to Fappiano with Storm Cat present in the pedigree though Giant's Causeway.

Grade l winner Mastery, a son of Candy Ride at Claiborne with first-crop 2-year-olds, is from a mare by Old Trieste (A.P. Indy) whose dam is by Storm Cat.

The aforementioned Gun Runner 2-year-old Grade l winner Gunite is from a Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) mare and the next dam is by Pulpit (A.P. Indy).

And the Gun Runner filly Wicked Halo, noted earlier from the Tapit (Pulpit/A.P. Indy) mare, not only has Storm Cat in the pedigree but also Fappiano through Tapit's broodmare sire Unbridled, making her 5x5x5 to Fappiano in addition to 4×5 Storm Cat. She's got a three-strong sire cluster of Storm Cat, Fappiano, and A.P. Indy girding her pedigree.

Candy Ride Stallions

Earlier this summer, I wrote about the investment in Candy Ride stallions that stud farms in Kentucky and in regional areas have made. One of the stallions mentioned is Unified, who has his first 2-year-olds racing this year. The Lane's End-based sire is represented so far by two black-type winners, Roger McQueen and Behave Virginia. The former is out of a Storm Cat-line mare and has Fappiano in the dam's pedigree (5×4 Fappiano); the latter is from a Mineshaft (A.P. Indy) mare and also has Fappiano in the dam's pedigree (5×4 Fappiano).

I also wrote about the once-raced Candy Ride stallion Valiant Minister at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala. Valiant Minister is the sire of Outfoxed, a filly who won the restricted $200,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Susan's Girl S. at the end of last month and looks like a future open company stakes winner. Though her sire stands for $3,000, she was a $360,000 OBS April 2-year-old. Her broodmare sire? It's former Florida stallion Kantharos (Lion Heart/Tale of the Cat/Storm Cat), who is a Storm Cat-line horse.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Hot Trainer Steve Asmussen Joins TDN Writer’s Room

On his drive from Saratoga to Kentucky Downs Tuesday, Steve Asmussen stopped in every state he drove through and bought lottery tickets. Shocking that he didn't win.

Coming off one of the greatest week-and-a-half stretches in racing history, during which he won five Grade I races in Saratoga over nine days, Asmussen was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week on the TDN Writer's Room, presented by Keeneland. If that wasn't enough, two of his wins, Gunite in the GI Hopeful S. and Echo Zulu in the GI Spinaway S., came from the first crop of Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}). Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year who was trained by Asmussen, is off to a sensational start at stud.

“Five Grade Is in nine calendar days, unbelievable,” said a jubilant Asmussen “We're blessed with the best horses in the world, but they just showed up when it mattered most. I was driving out of Saratoga yesterday, headed to Kentucky Downs for the races, and I could have got out and run around the car a couple of times. I was so excited. ”

While the horses have made Asmussen, sometimes Asmussen makes the horses. There's no better example of that than Max Player (Honor Code). An also-ran in May in the GIII Pimlico Special, he has since come back to win the GII Suburban S. and Saturday's GI Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is an example of a case when Asmussen went back to the drawing board, and it worked. He said there were two keys to the process, not letting Max Player fall behind early in his races and not shipping him to a track on top of a race.

“We felt he eliminated himself by not giving himself a chance getting away from the gate,” he said. “We took him back to the gate and pretty much started over.”

On the success of the Gun Runners, Asmussen said his offspring have the same mental attributes that the sire has, which goes a long way toward accounting for their success.

“It's the state of their minds, the acceptance of what their job is,” Asmussen said. “Gunite is the greatest example of what we want in a racehorse. Good level of talent, learns from his lessons and improves. [Assistant trainer] Scott [Blasi] and I were talking about him Tuesday morning. He ate up, and just stood there like he was saying 'when are we putting on the tack? When do we go to the track?' Unbelievable.”

When asked who he believed were his best prospects for next year's GI Kentucky Derby, Asmussen mentioned two horses, Saratoga maiden winner Stellar Tap (Tapit) and Gun Town (Gun Runner). Both are being pointed for the GIII Iroquois S. Sept. 18 at Churchill Downs. Stellar Tap is the horse who gave Asmussen his 9,446h career win, which pushed him past Dale Baird for No. 1 of all-time.

“Long term, we're very excited about both,” he said.

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Thoroughbreds, Spendthrift Farm and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers reviewed the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup day card at Saratoga and the sensational performances from a pair of allowance horses who both earned 114 Beyer numbers over the weekend, Flightline (Tapit) and this year's greatest rags-to-riches story, Baby Yoda (Prospective).

The latest on the Jorge Navarro-Jason Servis case was a hot topic among the writers. The government released more wiretaps this week that caught the two miscreants discussing performance-enhancing drugs, oftentimes drugs they didn't know the name of and didn't know what they were for, yet still gave them indiscriminately to their horses.

Click here for the audio and here for the video link.

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Bloodlines: Gun Runner Sets A Blistering Pace In Freshman Sire Race

After his offspring won both of the Grade 1 stakes for 2-year-olds on the Labor Day weekend at Saratoga, freshman sire Gun Runner (by Candy Ride) has rebroken on his competition, and the Three Chimneys Farm stallion has a margin of more than $400,000 in progeny earnings over second-place Practical Joke (Into Mischief), who stands at Coolmore's Ashford Stud in Kentucky.

The third- and fourth-place positions on the freshman sire rankings are taken by fellow Ashford stallions Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) and Caravaggio (Scat Daddy). Then, well-separated from the leading quartet, are a six-pack of young sires who have progeny earnings within $100,000 of each other. These are Connect (Curlin) at Lane's End, Klimt (Quality Road) at Darby Dan, Unified (Candy Ride) at Lane's End, Mohaymen (Tapit) at Shadwell, Gormley (Malibu Moon) at Spendthrift, and Stanford (Malibu Moon) at Tommy Town Thoroughbreds in California.

The weekend results added emphasis to the unexpectedly precocious showing of the first-crop racers by Gun Runner, who was a good racer at two but improved greatly at three and thereafter. Now the sire of four stakes winners from his first crop, all graded winners, Gun Runner has had three of those stakes winners at Saratoga, the fourth at Del Mar.

A tidy four-length victory in the Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga made Echo Zulu the first Grade 1 winner for her sire, and then Gunite powered through the stretch to win the Hopeful by 5 3/4 lengths on Labor Day to become a second Grade 1 winner for Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year and champion older horse for Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Three Chimneys Farm.

Having Gunite as a homebred, Winchell Thoroughbreds bought Echo Zulu for $300,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September yearling sale. Echo Zulu was one of two Gun Runner yearlings that Winchell Thoroughbreds bought last year. After racing Gun Runner with partner Three Chimneys, Winchell Thoroughbreds already had several young prospects coming along last year.

David Fiske, the racing manager for Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, said that “we had taken the position that you don't go out on a limb with a young stallion” prior to Gun Runner. But he thought “if we were ever going to breed a bunch of mares to a single stallion, this was the one. I managed to convince Ron of this, and to his credit, Ron loves to gamble, and we ended up with 17 foals from the first crop.

“The good news was they all looked alike. None of them were bad; all looked like they'd be trainable, and of the 15 that survived to go into training, I told a fellow last year that I thought we could win with every one of them. They grew up well, kept good proportions, stayed sound, and appeared to have good minds.

“Off the results of that group, we bred another 17 mares to him the second year, didn't sell any mares in foal, have hung onto the ones we've had, and we're getting rewarded for doing that.

“Because Gun Runner is having a fairytale beginning to his stud career,” Fiske concluded.

The fairytale has only begun, but it is getting seriously exciting for all involved.

Although he improved markedly at three and four, Gun Runner was unbeaten at two in his first two starts, winning a maiden special at Churchill Downs on Sept. 11, then an allowance at Keeneland on Oct. 17. The effect of those two performances was enough for bettors to make the chestnut colt the third favorite at 4.9-to-1 in the G3 Iroquois for his third start. After laying up with the pace, Gun Runner had a narrow lead at the stretch call, then was ambushed by winner Airoforce (Colonel John), Mor Spirit (Eskendereya), and Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) to finish fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the winner.

None of those made progress comparable to Gun Runner over the coming months, who won both the G2 Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, and the son of Candy Ride finished third in the Kentucky Derby behind juvenile champion Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and subsequent Preakness winner Exaggerator (Curlin).

Subsequently third in the G1 Travers and second in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile, Gun Runner won the G1 Clark at the end of his second season, and of the final eight races in his career, Gun Runner lost only one, when second in the G1 Dubai World Cup to Arrogate, who performed miracles after a dodgy start to get up and win the race by 2 1/4 lengths.

After winning the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Horse of the Year award, Gun Runner signed off on his racing career at five with a victory in the second running of the Pegasus Stakes at Gulfstream, retiring to stud at Three Chimneys. For his fourth season at stud in 2021, Gun Runner stood for $50,000 live foal. That is virtually certain to increase for 2022.

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This Week in Review: Can Gunite Break the Curse of the Hopeful

There's no doubt that Gunite (Gun Runner) is a quality horse and he secured an important win Monday at Saratoga in the GI Hopeful S when upsetting the highly regarded colts Wit (Practical Joke) and High Oak (Gormley). But is he a GI Kentucky Derby winner? If the last 43 runnings of the Hopeful mean anything, the answer is no.

The Hopeful is the first Grade I race for 2-year-old males run each year on the NYRA calendar and always brings together groups of horses who were impressive winners in Saratoga or someplace else. Every year, the field represents what seems to be unlimited potential.

That would suggest that a win in the race is a ticket to stardom as a 3-year-old, but that has not been the case for a long time. The last time a Hopeful winner won the Kentucky Derby was way back in 1978 when Affirmed swept the Triple Crown. Since then, only 11 Hopeful winners have made it to the Derby and only three have done so since 2005. None of those three finished in the money.

The 2004 Hopeful winner was Afleet Alex, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby in 2005 before winning the GI Preakness S. and the GI Belmont S. Sixteen years since he last raced, he is the last Hopeful winner to have had any sort of impact in any of the Triple Crown races.

That wasn't always the case. First run in 1901, the Hopeful has produced seven Kentucky Derby winners and three Triple Crown winners (Affirmed, Secretariat, Whirlaway). Foolish Pleasure, Secretariat and Affirmed combined to give the Hopeful three Derby winners over a six-year period. Hall of Famers like Man o'War, Nashua and Native Dancer also used the Hopeful as a springboard to stardom during the 3-year-old seasons and beyond.

There's no secret when it comes to what is happening here. Two-year-olds are trained and campaigned much differently than they were during the days of Affirmed. The Hopeful was the sixth start of Affirmed's career, which began May 24, and it was his fourth stakes win. His pre-Hopeful campaign even included a ship to California, where he won the GII Hollywood Juvenile Championship. By the time he got to the Hopeful, he was already a seasoned horse.

Fast forward 44 years and the horses who compete in the Hopeful usually have had no more than two prior starts. While they have talent, they also win the Hopeful because they are precocious and fast. Eight months later in the Kentucky Derby, the rest of the class has usually caught up to them if not passed them.

None of this is to say that the Hopeful is a ticket to nowhere. The 2020 winner Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music), who typifies the type of horse that now excels in the Hopeful, is a Grade I winner at three, in the thick of the race for champion sprinter, and has emerged as a valuable sire prospect. That probably wouldn't have happened if he had not been managed beautifully by Steve Asmussen. Asmussen didn't pretend to have something he didn't. He gave Jackie's Warrior only one shot to prove that he was a Derby horse and the result was a distant third in the GIII Southwest S. That was the last time he ever raced around two turns and he has been on a tear ever since. Had Asmussen pressed on and tried to make the Derby there's no telling what might have happened with Jackie's Warrior.

Gunite, who was Asmussen's third straight winner in the Hopeful, will no doubt be given the opportunity to show if he's a viable Triple Crown horse. Being by Gun Runner, maybe he can do it. It's just more likely than come Derby week 2022, he'll be eyeing something like the GII Pat Day Mile S.

Mattress Mack Scores at Monmouth

It's impossible not to root for Jim McIngvale.

When Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana last week, there he was again, traveling from Houston to Louisiana with badly needed supplies for those hard hit by the hurricane. He also opened his Houston furniture store as a safe haven to dozens of families who needed shelter. A humanitarian, he never fails to come to the recsue when his part of the globe is hit by a violent storm.

Eight days after Ida struck and with the situation getting more back to normal, McIngvale could turn his attention back to racing.

While the offspring of Runhappy (Super Saver) are having a much better year than they did in 2020, McIngvale had yet to come up with a top son or daughter of his stallion of his own. That all changed Saturday at Monmouth when Runup (Runhappy) won the $200,000 Sorority S., the first stakes win for a McIngvale-owned offspring of Runhappy. She didn't beat the best field and managed to get an uncontested lead, but she improved and showed enough in her first start around two turns to suggest that even better days are ahead.

“She runs a lot like her dad,” McIngvale said via text.

Let's hope so. It would be a ton of fun to have McIngvale connected to another good horse.

Thoughts on Handle Numbers at Saratoga and Del Mar

For both Saratoga and Del Mar, the 2021 meets were ones to remember, highlighted by record wagering.

The final all-sources handle for Saratoga was $815,508,063, a 15.6% increase over last year and the first time Saratoga had eclipsed the $800 million mark. At Del Mar, the average daily handle was a record $18.38 million for the meet. The total handle was $569.98 million.

That's great news for Saratoga and Del Mar, which have never been more popular. It would stand to reason that both meets should peak at sometime, but it just doesn't happen.

The hope for racing is that Del Mar and Saratoga are creating new fans, ones that will keep betting once racing shifts to Santa Anita and Belmont. But that doesn't appear to be the case as racing's overall handle has been more or less stagnant for years. That means that what is happening is that Saratoga and Del Mar are simply grabbing a bigger share of the pari-mutuel wagering market every year.

Racing has found out that it's not hard to get people to turn out for and bet on high-quality short meets, like Saratoga, Del Mar and Keeneland. But the Thursday afternoon at Belmont, Santa Anita, or just about anywhere else, remain a tough sell and something the sport continues to need to work on.

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