Frank Mitchell | Horse Racing Free Tips

Bloodlines Presented By Gary Contessa’s Integrity Bloodstock: Authentic, Flawless Reward Blum’s Faith With Kentucky Derby Roses

In the normal scheme of Peter Blum's breeding program, he's quite as likely to be planning progeny of a female line he's had for four or five generations, perhaps more. To produce Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, however, Blum sent the broodmare Flawless, only a first-generation “Blum-bred,” to the high-class stallion Into Mischief (by Harlan's Holiday) back in the spring of 2016.

The breeder did note, however, that he “had some experience with this family that made me want to buy [second dam] Oyster Baby, who was a lovely mare” and one who produced a beautiful foal in Flawless, the dam of the Kentucky Derby winner.

Nor was this the only unusual factor in Flawless being a part of the Blum broodmare band. The decades-long experience that Blum has with racing and breeding has encouraged him to balance the books whenever possible, and he sells his better stock, especially colts, at premium sales around the country.

Since he typically keeps some of the fillies, Blum bought back Flawless for $285,000 at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale. It looked like a damned good idea after that good-looking daughter of leading sire Mr. Greeley had won her maiden impressively by 13 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park. Flawless, however, bowed a tendon in her second start, gaining no black type, and after Blum and trainer Bill Mott had rehabbed the filly and returned her to training, the tendon flared up again and made it necessary to retire her permanently. The mare's dam, the Wild Again mare Oyster Baby, was unraced and produced only three foals before her death at age seven.

As a result, Authentic went to the sales with two blank dams. This is the bugaboo of commercial breeders because nearly all buyers want to purchase performance, black-type performance, not its absence. Blum said, “People were questioning why I'd keep her: she didn't win a stakes, would catalog with two blank dams, and I told Bill Mott that I'd have a lot of trouble selling foals out of this mare, but he said, 'Sell all the other mares and keep this one.'”

Blum kept Flawless, in particular, he said, because “I've had some really good fillies over the years, but I've never had a filly who was as brilliant; as far as speed goes, nothing compared to Flawless.”

The 2017 colt out of Flawless, when he came to the sales, was a striking yearling. Even as a May foal, Authentic possessed the body mass and length to suggest that he was on the way to becoming a serious athlete. He had enough scope and presence to appeal to horsemen looking for athletic prospects, either to race or to resell, and once the bidding started for the handsome bay, it reached $350,000 before all others gave up and allowed a partnership of SF Bloodstock and Starlight West to sign the ticket for the colt.

Sent into training with Bob Baffert, Authentic won his debut on Nov. 9 last year at Del Mar and made his stakes debut on Jan. 4 of the new year in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, which he won like a very good thing, indeed. To date, the bay colt has won five of his six starts and notably filled out his dam's lack of black type on the pedigree page.

Authentic is the fourth foal and third winner out of Flawless. The others sold profitably, but he was the mare's first foal to make a seriously impressive price at $350,000. That's a really good figure for a yearling with two blank dams, no matter what he looks like, and that sum also was the second-highest among all the yearlings sold on the second day of the September sale's Book 3 (session 8 overall) in 2018.

The Kentucky Derby winner has a 2-year-old half-brother named Mint (Bodemeister) who is yet unraced, as well as a yearling half-brother, also by Bodemeister, who has been named Push Button. Blum said that he was retaining the two half-brothers to race. Flawless was bred back to Into Mischief for 2021 and is in foal on a February cover.

That cover date guarantees that the full brother to Authentic will not be a May foal like the Derby winner. In an interesting aside to the biases of the commercial market, last year's Kentucky Derby winner Country House, first-place finisher Maximum Security, last year's English Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, and this year's Kentucky Derby winner are all May foals.

When the foal from Flawless arrives in late January, Blum noted, he will go into exactly the same program as his big brother. He said, “Bridie, her family and staff, we've been together a lot of years. They deserve all the credit for raising Authentic and a lot of other fine horses,” Blum said. “She doesn't tell me what I want to hear, but we think a lot alike.”

And then Blum summed up what it means to breed a winner of the Kentucky Derby: “When he was in the winner's circle, it was a special moment. Winning the Derby isn't something you really think you're going to do. It's a once in a lifetime thing, but I don't know if I'd be any happier if I'd kept him. We breed and sell horses. To be able to breed and sell a Derby winner; you can't get a better endorsement than that. I don't believe I could be any happier.”

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Bloodlines Presented By California Thoroughbred Breeders Association: Texas Red, Hit It A Bomb Land Early Blows In Freshman Sire Race

With races for 2-year-olds that prohibit Lasix, it was no surprise that the juvenile graded stakes winners at Del Mar on Aug. 8 both raced without the controversial medication. It was, however, a surprise that the winners of the Grade 2 Best Pal and the G2 Sorrento were both by freshmen sires.

The Sorrento's public betting choice at 0.90-to-1 was My Girl Red (by Texas Red), and after leading all the way, the handsome bay filly duly delivered by 4 3/4 lengths from second-choice Get On the Bus (Uncle Mo), who had five lengths on Exchange Vows (Tapiture), the longest price on the odds board.

Bred in Kentucky and racing for breeder Erich Brehm, My Girl Red is out of the stakes-placed Morakami (Fusaichi Pegasus), and the Sorrento winner is one of four stakes horses out of that mare. Brehm, who was a co-owner of Texas Red, purchased Morakami in foal to Street Boss (Street Cry) for $21,000 at the 2017 Keeneland January sale.

A $225,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, Morakami would have been counted a disappointing broodmare at the time of sale, as none of the mare's racers had earned black type at the time. Two of the mare's foals already in training subsequently became stakes-placed, and the foal she was carrying at the sale is now known as Gold Street, the winner of the 2019 Sugar Bowl Stakes at the Fair Grounds and the 2020 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park.

Now unbeaten in two starts, My Girl Red is the first graded winner for either of her parents. Morakami has a yearling filly by Texas Red and a weanling filly of 2020 by leading sire Kitten's Joy (El Prado). The mare was bred to Into Mischief for 2021.

Much like his precocious daughter, Texas Red (Afleet Alex) was a talented 2-year-old, winning the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in the absence of champion American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) and becoming one of the early favorites for the next season's classics. The tall bay was sidelined in February 2015 with a hoof abscess, came back to win the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, then was sidelined once again with bone bruising.

In 2017, Texas Red went to stud in Kentucky at Pope McLean's Crestwood Farm. Pope McLean Jr. said that former Crestwood associate “Phil Hager had a relationship with Brehm, and we partnered with him and his group. Erich leads that ownership group, and most of them stayed in on the horse” as a stallion prospect.

“Erich Brehm has put so much into the horse that this [victory at Del Mar] meant a lot to them,” said Marc McLean. “Morakami was a nice mare already, but Erich bought some other mares for the horse. That makes a difference in the opportunities that a young stallion has.”

With a first crop of “only” 49 foals, Texas Red had a very respectable number of foals for an earlier time, but in today's stallion environment with popular stallions having superbooks of 200 mares or more, the son of Afleet Alex is overachieving to have a graded stakes winner already.

In addition, another daughter of Texas Red, Somuchsugar, finished second in the restricted Miss Ohio Stakes on Aug. 8 to the Constitution filly Alexandria.

Like Texas Red, Hit It a Bomb (War Front) was a Breeders' Cup winner as an unbeaten juvenile, winning the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by a neck from Airoforce (Colonel John). Laid off until August of his 3-year-old season, Hit It a Bomb returned with thirds in the G2 Solonaway Stakes and G3 Desmond Stakes and ended his career unplaced in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile.

Sold to stand at Spendthrift Farm, Hit It a Bomb got a tepid reception from dirt-oriented breeders and has only 38 foals from his first crop. Some of them looked the part of quality racers at last year's sales of yearlings, as Makai brought $140,000 at the Keeneland September sale from Jordan Blair Racing, and Miss Costa Rica brought $95,000 at the same auction. Too many of the yearlings by Hit It a Bomb, however, did not receive the seal of approval from American trainers and pinhookers, with a sales median price of $12,000 from 23 sold.

One of those below the median price was Weston, who sold to Chris Drakos for $7,000 at the Keeneland September sale. Now the winner of the Best Pal Stakes, the bay has improved a lot, and he may not be the only one. Miss Costa Rica returned as a 2-year-old in training at the OBS March sale and sold for $200,000 in this year's strongly depressed market. She and a couple other well-regarded members of the first crop by Hit It a Bomb are reported to be training well and should make starts soon.

A winner on debut, Weston won the Best Pal after laying up with the pace the whole trip and was ahead by a neck at the wire, defeating Girther (Brody's Cause).

Weston is out of the stakes-placed Elke (Dixie Union), and the Hit It a Bomb gelding is the mare's first stakes winner. Elke has also produced the stakes-placed Miss Segovia (Paddy O'Prado) and two other winners of more than $100,000.

As the progeny of a high-class racer who showed his form on turf, gamblers will want to pay special attention to the stock by Hit It a Bomb when they get a chance to race on turf.

Both My Girl Red and Weston were the first winners by their sires, and now they have become the first stakes winners and graded stakes winners for those young stallions trying to secure a future in the breeding world of Kentucky. To secure a position in the stallion hierarchy for 2021, Hit It a Bomb and Texas Red needed to show success early, and they have done well to sire graded winners from relatively small crops very early in their first inning at stud.

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Bloodlines: Whitney Winner Improbable Hit The Mark For City Zip, Bloodstock Investments

When Improbable won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 1, the striking chestnut colt was further confirming that his sire, the Carson City stallion City Zip, was one of the steadiest contributors of quality in the breed.

City Zip, a Grade 1 winner at two and major winner at three, moved to Lane's End for his third season at stud and was never the top horse on the farm. The most obvious reason for that was a big bay beast named A.P. Indy, who was the top horse on the farm. City Zip didn't even start out as second fiddle to the Horse of the Year, but the quality and consistency of the stock that City Zip sired made him a serious force to be reckoned with.

And breeders came to realize that City Zip was also a good sire for a young mare. A medium-sized stallion, City Zip wouldn't burden a first-time foaling mare with an overly large foal. Furthermore, the stallion consistently contributed speed to his progeny and got startlingly high percentages of starters (84) and winners (66), placing him among the best in breed. As a result, City Zip was a great way to get a nice young mare going as a producer. For instance, a nice young mare by A.P. Indy like Rare Event, who became the dam of Improbable.

Bred in Kentucky by Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership, Rare Event is out of the stakes-winning mare Our Rite of Spring (by Stravinsky) and is a half-sister to G1 winner Hard Spun (Danzig), who was also second in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic.

As a yearling, Rare Event was so attractive that G. Watts Humphrey bought the filly for $400,000 at the 2010 Keeneland September yearling auction. On the racetrack, Rare Event won four of 14 starts, earning $114,159.

As the mare's first live foal, Improbable was a medium-sized, attractive chestnut with three white stockings and a blaze. Humphrey bred the Whitney Stakes winner in partnership with Ian Banwell's St. George Farm Racing LLC, and the breeders sold the flashy chestnut colt at the 2016 Keeneland November sale for $110,000 to Taylor Made Sales, agent, when the partners also sold Rare Event to Calumet Farm for $150,000 while carrying her second foal on a cover to Lane's End stallion Quality Road (Elusive Quality).

At the November sale in 2016, Katie Taylor-Marshall, Frank Taylor, and long-time manager John Hall picked out the spritely weanling who grew into Improbable. Katie Taylor-Marshall said, “We bought him as part of the fourth installment of our pinhooking package, Bloodstock Investments. That was the first installment that we did weanlings only; we had a list of sires that we wanted to get for the package that year, and City Zip was one of them. We missed out on one weanling at Fasig-Tipton, and this colt was really nice, so nice that we decided to hold back a little on the other and go stronger” on Improbable, whom the investors bought for $110,000.

“We were able to buy him,” Katie said, “because he wasn't the biggest; he was just big enough. City Zip was such a solid sire, and this colt is indicative of what City Zips were: he has a strong hind-end, good body, nice neck. Lots of balance and quality.”

Katie recalled that “from the time we bought him, Improbable did well. He had no behavioral problems, no vetting problems. He was consistent and steady [in his development and maturation]. We were going to take him to Saratoga but had another City Zip for Saratoga, and we sent him to September instead,” where the colt brought $200,000 from WinStar and China Horse Club.

Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales said that “the first I saw of Improbable was when he came back to Taylor Made and began to integrate in the herd. He was a really nice, stretchy, and really well-balanced horse, and I thought he looked more like a two-turn horse than a lot of runners by his sire. He had some white feet on him, but they were good and sound. He was a really cool horse but a little different from what you normally saw from the sire.”

City Zip was known primarily as a sire of fast horses, not horses who found their best form at longer distances. The stallion could and did get those, however, and he threw uncommon soundness and athleticism into his stock, even those with white feet, which are frequently seen as a sign of a soft or potentially weak foot in a racer.

Instead, Mark Taylor noted that the colt's sale to the people at WinStar “validated our feeling that this was a really good horse. At the end of his 3-year-old season, I thought that this colt was one of those horses who hadn't reached his full potential, but he has certainly done the job this season, and when he goes to stud, I know that we will be lining up to breed mares to him because he is a beautiful horse.”

In the immediate future, the plans indicate that Improbable will continue to challenge for a leading role in the older horse division with a goal of the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in October.

And the Taylor Made crew will be back with more yearlings to sell next month at Fasig-Tipton and at Keeneland.

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Bloodlines: Somelikeithotbrown And The Burden Of Expectations

From the evidence of the sums paid for stallion syndications and for price of nomination fees to these unproven sires, a reasonable observer would assume that there is a strong correlation between elite racing performance and its resulting stratospheric stallion valuations and then the progeny results of such horses on the racetrack.

That reasonable observer, however, would be incorrect.

There is a modest correlation between racing excellence and stallion performance; essentially every important stallion is a stakes winner, for instance. But you don't have to look very hard to find Danzig, who was unbeaten in three starts, none a stakes. Clearly, that very talented son of Northern Dancer was an aberration; had he enjoyed a fairly normal racing career, Danzig would have been a stakes winner and probably a stakes winner of very high merit.

Aside from stakes success as a general parameter of racing performance, however, the variability of the genetic material that a stallion provides to his offspring and the equal variability of how that contribution pairs up with a contribution from the dam make breeding effectively an exercise in randomness.

All this makes the prices of major syndications what we might generously call “optimistic.”

This was pointed out by the result of the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap at Saratoga. The Baruch was won by the New York-bred 4-year-old Somelikeithotbrown (by Big Brown), and the winner is from the first New York-conceived crop by the 2008 Eclipse Award winner as champion 3-year-old colt.

A winner in his only start at two, Big Brown improved massively to remain undefeated through victories in the G1 Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness. Heavily favored to complete the Triple Crown, Big Brown was eased in the Test of the Champion at Belmont Park.

The son of Boundary (Danzig) won his final two starts, a prep for the Haskell and the main event, then was retired to stud at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky to stand for a fee of $60,000 live foal. The other top horse retiring to Kentucky for the 2009 season was two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (Smart Strike), and both were scheduled to have stud fees of $100,000 or thereabouts before the Great Recession came crumbling down on everyone's head.

That debacle had the effect of lowering those two horses' stud fees by nearly half, to $60,000 for their first seasons. External factors did not make the economics of standing the two champions any easier, but the long-term challenge for each was to get horses of very high racing class.

Curlin answered in the affirmative, most strongly as his stock gained experience and maturity on the racetrack, and the champion chestnut has established himself as one of the premier stallions in the country with a stud fee of $175,000.

In contrast, however, Big Brown sired winners from large books of accomplished mares, and the regression to the norm seen in the quality of his racers produced a corresponding regression in the horse's stud fee.

To date, Big Brown has had nine crops of racing age, and from 584 foals of racing age (including 27 2-year-olds), he has 27 stakes winners, including seven group or graded stakes winners. The best of these was Dortmund, a smashing chestnut of giant proportions who won the G1 Santa Anita Derby and Los Alamitos Futurity, as well as running third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby behind American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile).

This is not an exercise in bashing Big Brown, who followed a good racing career with stud performance that is slightly above average: he sired a Grade 1 winner and a half-dozen other group or graded winners from 27 stakes winners. Few stallions do that much.

Average performance, even a bit better than average success, however, is not nearly enough to keep a stallion in Kentucky at a commercial fee under the present market circumstances. The pressures on stallions include the escalating book sizes that have some of the most in-demand stallions covering more than 200 mares in the Northern Hemisphere breeding season from February through early July; the dual-hemisphere shuttle system which sends some stallions to the Southern Hemisphere, where they will be working with another large book of mares; the demands of the sales market for large, correctly conformed, attractive, and well-matured yearlings or 2-year-olds; and then the racetrack demands to get racing stock that can win early and often, then show high form in graded company.

If a stallion prospect could know what lay in store for him, he'd just have a nervous breakdown and be done with it.

The horses who have the libido and physical health to handle the breeding demands, then to compound that by outperforming expectations with lots of good individuals who regularly perform at the highest levels, are rare creations indeed. That's what a top-class contemporary stallion has to provide, and it's a prescription to understand why there's only one Galileo, one Tapit, or one War Front every few years.

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