Tag: Forte

This Side Up: Tapping At The Door Of History

So, what's next? The plague of locusts? The only surprise is that the smoke filling the air at Belmont Park has drifted across the continent from Canadian forests, and didn't actually emerge from a widening fissure in the crust, crumbling daily, that appears to divide horsemen and their horses from the inferno.

Hopefully a reprieve of the GI Belmont S. might yet be extended to some other elements in what has become too relentlessly apocalyptic a narrative. In terms of what has been definitively established, our sport's macabre run of misfortune in recent weeks may owe as much to sulphurs exhaled from hell as to the difference between dirt and synthetic surfaces.

As a community, we obviously have a major challenge on our hands. But that's precisely why we need to avoid panicked, impulsive solutions in favor of calmly diligent, far-sighted leadership. Just because social media has empowered some pretty deranged minorities, we can't allow their disproportionate reach to pervert whole societal agendas.

It would seem pretty unarguable that American racing can benefit from a greater role for synthetics but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Horsemen and handicappers alike have a legitimate stake in dirt racing–and, to be clear, that stake is not just financial but a matter of cultural identity–and there its long history can surely be extended by discovering and addressing any practices that undermine its sustainability. I suspect there's probably quite a crossover between those who are resisting HISA and those who can't abide synthetics–and these are the guys who really need to smell the coffee. If you want to keep dirt racing, then call your dogs off HISA.

Tapit | Sarah Andrew

You couldn't ask for a better context to ponder these issues than the 155th running of a race designed to showcase precisely those genetic assets that equip the Thoroughbred to deal safely with tasks set before an increasingly (and, for the most part, properly) vigilant audience. And that's not just because it asks for the robustness to carry speed for a distance that is nearly freakish, in the American theatre, but also because historically many runners would already have contested two demanding races in the preceding five weeks.

Though it is the trainers who are driving corrosion of the Triple Crown, they implicitly transfer the culpability to the breeders. Hopefully our collective endeavors to identify and resolve vulnerabilities in the Thoroughbred will include analysis of the relative incidence of breakdowns (and not just catastrophic ones) in the stock of different stallions. If so, we might learn whether there's any scientific substance to our nervousness about horses today being “too fast to last.”  For now, however, we can only follow our instincts and conscience. But it's certainly striking that Germany should have achieved such a sensational impact with its bloodlines–far outrunning its troubles as a racing economy–by paternalist strictures in favor of soundness and competitive longevity. And even the most stubborn commercial breeders in Europe and America must acknowledge that Japan isn't doing too badly, either, in prizing the same assets.

Happily, the 50th anniversary of Secretariat's Belmont has drawn a perfectly presentable field in both quality and intrigue. With four other Kentucky Derby graduates meanwhile siphoned to the GIII Matt Winn S., it's clear that the Classic taking all the punishment from trainers right now is the Preakness. But how edifying that the Belmont–such an outlier, in the numbly repeating wheelhouse of most American trainers–should retain sufficient prestige to tempt a juvenile champion who'd be well within his rights to find a more obviously congenial way of regrouping from his recent vexations.

Quite a leap of imagination is required to picture a speed brand like Violence siring a Belmont winner, but his grandsire El Prado (Ire) sits comfortingly opposite Arch (behind damsire Blame) in the pedigree of Forte. So you never know, and clearly the runner-up has meanwhile upgraded his white-knuckle GI Florida Derby.

But his second dam was fast (stakes winner at 6f) and will need to have smuggled through some stamina from her own mother. That's by no means impossible, as she was by Seattle Slew and her half-sister by a speedier agency (Storm Cat) unites the pedigrees of 12-furlong Classic winners Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Essential Quality (Tapit), as third and second dam respectively.

Essential Quality, of course, was his sire's fourth Belmont winner, a unique distinction in the modern era. The only precedent, Lexington, had emerged from a forgotten era of four-mile heats and matches to prove an ideal influence for what was then a newfangled type of sprinting in a single, congested dash. The dial has since turned so far that the Belmont stands out as a curio, a positive marathon. Breeders of the 21st Century must count themselves blessed, then, to retain access to such a wholesome influence in the evening of his career.

Forte | Coady Photography

Astoundingly, this time Tapit himself accounts for two of the nine runners, while no fewer than FOUR others are out of his daughters.

The Gainesway patriarch's Belmont record, including in a couple of desperate finishes, is all about the ability to carry speed under duress. That is supposed to be a dirt hallmark, though it was exported to revolutionary effect by Northern Dancer's sons in Europe, where the dynasty's principal heir Frankel (GB)-having himself always run just like a dirt horse-is now siring stock that similarly just keep going.

Actually, there's a case for saying that Tapit is a far more effective turf sire than his stats might imply, given that only his most disappointing foals would even try the weeds. He's certainly been disgracefully untested in Europe. Of just nine Tapits started by British trainers over the last decade, seven are winners and three stakes performers. But whatever the future may hold, in terms of racing surfaces, it looks as though he will just have to settle for being the richest sire in the history of the American sport.

Into Mischief is almost certainly going to run him down, in time, but Tapit started Belmont weekend on a statistical brink–$198 million in progeny earnings, from 999 winners and 99 graded stakes winners–that surely beckons him towards another date with Belmont destiny. And if he's going to make history, then he's also the type of horse that can give us a future.

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Belmont Preview: Final Three Furlongs Will Yield The Drama

The GI Belmont S. entrants are listed in “likeliest winner” order.

1) NATIONAL TREASURE (c, Quality Road–Treasure, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $500,000 ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-2-1-2, $1,335,000. Last Start: 1st GI Preakness S. at Pimlico May 20.

National Treasure drew post one, added blinkers, and looked on paper to be the controlling speed in the GI Preakness S. After asserting command with little resistance through leisurely opening quarters of :23.95, :24.9 and :24.57, his wiring of the field was almost a foregone conclusion.

He did have to claw back the lead when Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) edged in front between calls in deep stretch, but this $500,000 FTSAUG son of Quality Road always had the upper hand. If anything, National Treasure was emboldened by the bumping and brushing with Blazing Sevens before finishing with purpose.

Most post-race analysis focused on those lethargic early splits that lulled the competition and kept National Treasure fresh. But how about that final three-sixteenths blitzed in :18.05?

National Treasure's clocking through that last furlong and a half of the race is almost too quick to believe. It ranks as the fastest since Summer Squall's 1990 Preakness, which was 18 seconds flat. Back then, timing was done in fifths and not hundredths of a second, so it's conceivable National Treasure's fraction ranks marginally faster. At the time, Summer Squall's closing three-sixteenths fraction was widely reported to be a Preakness record (Equibase charts that break out the final three-sixteenths date only to 1991). If National Treasure's clocking is for real, it has to be respected.

Back in March, National Treasure missed some training and an expected start in the GII San Felipe S. because of a quarter crack. His so-so fourth in the GI Santa Anita Derby must be viewed in the light that that nine-furlong try was his first race in three months. So now the question becomes was the Preakness his peak effort, or a bridge to better things in the Belmont?

The Preakness didn't seem to sap National Treasure. You'd have to think he won't get away with such a tepid tempo again in the Belmont. But he doesn't resonate as a needs-the-lead type to win. National Treasure will likely be placed somewhere near the front, and jockey John Velazquez should have the luxury of picking his preferred position over his home-court track.

Knowing that the three favorites ahead of him on the morning line all do their best running from midpack or farther back gives National Treasure a speed-centric advantage that is too intriguing to overlook at 5-1 odds. The Belmont will be his to win or lose on the far turn.

2) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-0-1, $883,650. Last start: 7th GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs May 6.

The 1 1/2 miles distance and vast, expansive configuration of Belmont Park both play to the style of 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice. Yet there is an element of “now or never” baked into the equation when it comes to assessing his chances of not only winning the third leg of the Triple Crown, but using the victory as a springboard to dominance for the second half of the season.

His slow-to-go tactics have been well documented throughout the winter and spring. But even though this $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit habitually leaves the gate sluggishly and has to be scrubbed on for run so as not to lag too far behind the field, he very reliably unwinds with a prolonged, mid-race surge.

In both the GI Blue Grass S. (which he won narrowly despite looking beaten on the far turn) and the GI Kentucky Derby (where he was seventh after having his momentum stalled twice), Tapit Trice got rolling six furlongs from the finish. There are quite a few late-race runners at the top of this year's sophomore crop, but none of them have demonstrated they can launch a bid from that far out while finishing with authority.

By way of example, in the Blue Grass, Tapit Trice led the way home in a prolonged stretch fight through a final furlong timed in :12.40, which was the fastest final eighth for the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014.

Tapit Trice came nine wide into the lane for the Derby after responding to far-turn rousing by Luis Saez. But when it was evident this burly gray was not going to hit the board, Saez decided to save Tapit Trice for another day. June 10 has been circled on the calendar ever since.

Forte Wednesday | Sarah Andrew

3) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1.

Twelve furlongs off a 10-week break for a “headline horse” who has posted declining Beyer Speed Figures (100-98-95) since capping a championship 2-year-old season with a victory in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That sentence sums up all of the reasons to think twice about betting this 'TDN Rising Star' as the Belmont favorite.

Trouble is, this 6-for-7 son of Violence ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) is such a gifted athlete who carries himself with just the right mix of poise and panache that he could defy conventional value-handicapping wisdom and finally bust out in the Belmont, meeting or exceeding the lofty prognostications that have shadowed his career.

A bruised right front foot derailed Forte's Kentucky Derby chances, necessitating a scratch on the morning of the race. The 15-1 upsetter in Louisville ended up being Mage (Good Magic), who had given Forte a brief scare in the GI Florida Derby before Forte blew by him with his ears pricked in the final few jumps to the wire.

Although the race spacing for Forte is not ideal, and it's still an open question as to how much he's progressed since his juvenile campaign, the foot bruise has reportedly healed, and Forte should, in theory, have an easier time negotiating a field of just eight rivals on Saturday instead of the 18 he would have faced in the Derby. That's because one of Forte's strengths has always been his ability to carve out ideal mid-pack positioning under the guidance of Irad Ortiz, Jr., using that prime stalking spot as a launch pad for a far-turn blast-off that has only failed him once from seven starts.

A crowded, chaotic race like the Derby might have been a challenge for Forte, whose one tactical weakness is a lack of early acceleration to put himself clear of trouble at the front of the pack.

He's not as likely to encounter traffic woes in the Belmont, nor is he likely to be taken out of his game by being asked to go too fast too soon. Forte should be in it to win it three furlongs out. Then the test of this particular champion will begin.

4) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-1, $1,369,375. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs May 6.

Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will try blinkers on in the Belmont. Don't expect the equipment change to transform him into a frontrunner. The intent seems to be to get him a touch more focused in the initial stages of the race. In the Derby, this Pennsylvania-bred son of Classic Empire settled willingly for Flavien Prat before building steam and picking off most of the field with a grinding rail run. Off the final turn, he was eight wide and right behind eventual winner Mage, but when Mage ratcheted into a higher gear, Angel of Empire didn't produce a similar upper-stretch burst. He did torque it up a notch inside the eighth pole, but couldn't reel in Two Phil's (Hard Spun) for second.

His third-place finish as the 4-1 beaten Derby fave was commendable, but I'm not sure I fully buy into the projection that the effort equated to a 10-point jump in his best lifetime Beyer, from 94 to 104. By comparison, we've already seen that Mage couldn't reproduce his winning 105 Beyer as the only Derby entrant to run back in the Preakness, regressing from 105 to his previous plateau of 94.

That's not to say the Belmont's 1 1/2-miles distance isn't within Angel of Empire's scope. This colt has shown no problems sticking around to have a say in the finish as his race distances have increased. His dialed-in run through the lane in the GI Arkansas Derby came through a final eighth timed in :12.12, the fastest final furlong out of the nine 2022-23 Derby qualifying stakes at nine furlongs.

5) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 10-2-2-1, $732,525. Last Start: 4th in the GI Preakness S. at Pimlico May 20.

To give you an idea of how slow the Preakness pace was, Red Route One-a stone-cold closer whose connections were intentionally trying to set him up for one run from far back-ranged up to be jointly second at the rail five-eighths out, just a length off eventual winner National Treasure.

“This race fell apart for a lot of reasons that nobody will be able to put their finger on,” trainer Steve Asmussen said post-Preakness, adding that he knows the same thing could happen in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

“You're not guaranteed to get pace in the Belmont. [But] he's kept very good company his whole career and was probably beaten [4 3/4] lengths in the Preakness in a race I don't think set up ideally for him,” Asmussen said. “Does he beat them under different circumstances? Who knows? But I do like the opportunity to run him a mile and a half.”

Red Route One didn't look comfortable while carrying his head high entering the Preakness backstraight. After briefly nipping at National Treasure's heels, Joel Rosario backed him down a bit, and it looked on the far turn as if a second, more substantial move was percolating. It never materialized despite Rosario's urging. The three horses he outfinished were the longest shots in the field of seven.

By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare, I don't think anyone dismisses Asmussen's longer-the-better belief in this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred. The question comes down to how fast can he cover that distance-which, of course, hinges on how fast the frontrunners cover the initial nine furlongs.

Hit Show Wednesday | Sarah Andrew

6) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-0, $494,375. Last Start: 5th in the GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs May 6.

When most horses draw the dreaded one post for the Derby, you can almost automatically expect put a line through that race when you next see it in their past-performance block. Not so with Hit Show. This Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West enjoyed one of the most trouble-free trips from the innermost gate in recent Derby memory.

Hit Show broke alertly, and Manny Franco positioned him as he liked, gearing back to seventh through the turn, then easing off the fence to the four path right behind the speedsters with no one covering them up. Hit Show started to pick it up with a four-wide run 3 1/2 furlongs out, but the bid required brisk urging from Franco.

Hit Show was very much in it to win it turning for home. But after advancing to third, he had no response to further rousing via left-handed stick work. After being accosted by Mage, Hit Show  stayed on doggedly, with Franco keeping him to task to get fifth.

His Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial second was notable for Hit Show running second, beaten a nose, as the middle horse who got pinballed in a three-way stretch scrum while never backing down. As a May 9 foal, he's among the youngest of this year's Triple Crown crop, so the extra five weeks since his last start will presumably be to his benefit.

7) ARCANGELO (r, Arrogate–Modeling, by Tapit) O-Blue Rose Farm. B-Don Alberto Corporation(KY); T-Jena Antonucci. Sales history: $35,000 ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $167,400. Last Start: 1st in the GIII Peter Pan S. at Belmont Park May 13.

This $35,000 KEESEP son of Arrogate burst into Belmont S. relevancy with a 97-Beyer score in the GIII Peter Pan S. May 13.

Rated back to sixth for the early part of that nine-furlong race, Arcangelo came rolling into a two-horse speed setup. He snatched the lead a sixteenth from the wire, then got quite a tussle from favored runner-up Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), who not only survived the duel but re-seized the lead between calls before Arcangelo won a tight bob at the wire. They were 8 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field.

Despite twice racing at a mile (Gulfstream) and once at 1 1/8 miles (Belmont), those were one-turn configurations, which will make Saturday's race Arcangelo's first two-turn attempt.

His 84-Beyer Mar. 18 MSW win at Gulfstream has not evolved into a productive race. Five of the six horses Arcangelo beat that afternoon have since come back to run, and all five have lost, including two as favorites.

8) TAPIT SHOES (c, Tapit–Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley) O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing, LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, Rick Kanter and Michael J. Caruso. B-Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey & Tapit Syndicate(KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $300,000 ylg '21 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SP, 5-1-1-1, $82,878. Last Start: 2nd in the Bath House Row S. at Oaklawn Apr. 22.

Tapit Shoes, a half-bother to last year's GI Haskell S. and Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife, exits a second-place try in the Bath House Row S. at Oaklawn.

Four, then three wide on the turns, this $300,000 FTKOCT colt by Tapit mounted a rally at the top of the lane, initially with his head cocked out to the grandstand in upper stretch before straightening out and digging in.

He at first had difficulty putting away the favored pacemaker when he drew alongside. Once he dispatched that rival, Tapit Shoes was nipped on the wire by out-of-the-clouds winner Red Route One. What his effort lacked in polish shouldn't diminish the underlying potential here.

Considering that was the first stakes try for this colt (who has a nice base of five races, all at 1 1/16 miles or longer), and keeping in mind that Tapit Shoes (May 17) is another late foal, like stablemate Hit Show, another progression forward isn't out of the question. The morning line says 20-1 is your price point to find out if that advancement is good enough to win.

9) IL MIRACOLO (c, Gun Runner–Tapit's World, by Tapit) O-Eduardo Soto; B-Willow Oaks Stable LLC (KY); T-Antonio Sano. Sales history: $75,000 ylg '21 KEEJAN; $190,000 RNA ylg '21 FTKOCT; $70,000 2yo '22 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 10-2-3-0, $103,125. Last start: 1st in allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park May 11.

For the longest shot in the Belmont S., how about a colt whose name translates from Italian to “The Miracle”?

Il Miracolo ($75,000 KEEJAN; $190,000 RNA FTKOCT; $70,000 OBSOPN) enters the third leg of the Triple Crown coming off a 77-Beyer wiring of a five-horse allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream.

His previous five tries were stakes on the Derby trail in which Il Miracolo was beaten an aggregate 79 1/2 lengths.

This colt shares the same Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare cross as Red Route One.

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NYRA Cancels Thursday Training

As live racing cancellations continued to mount Wednesday in light of unhealthy air quality due to residual smoke from Canadian wildfires, training will be prohibited Thursday morning at both Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course, the New York Racing Association (NYRA) announced Wednesday evening. This is particularly impactful as Belmont's three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is scheduled to kick off Thursday afternoon.

A decision regarding Thursday's live racing program at Belmont, which has a first post of 3:05 p.m. and will feature the GII Wonder Again S. for 3-year-old fillies on grass, will be made Thursday morning following a review of the air quality conditions and forecast, NYRA said.

A total of 15 graded races are scheduled to be run over the three-day Festival, highlighted by Saturday's running of the GI Belmont S., the third leg of the Triple Crown.

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Wednesday’s Belmont Stakes Report: Rush Hour

ELMONT, NY – With the rising sun attempting to make its way through hazy skies as air quality health advisories remain in effect throughout the New York City area due to the Canadian wildfires, eight of the nine GI Belmont Stakes runners were in action during the first hour of training on a cool Wednesday morning.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) and Tapit Shoes (Tapit), both equipped with white bridles and NYRA's commemorative 50th Anniversary Secretariat Belmont S. saddle towels, made a favorable impression in their first day of training for Brad Cox over Big Sandy at 6:12 a.m. Cox, represented by 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality (Tapit), will also tighten the girth on the handsome gray Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), who galloped with good energy nearly three hours later following the break.

Arabian Lion (Justify), cutting back to seven furlongs for the GI Woody Stephens S. on Saturday's loaded undercard, was among the first to stretch his legs over the freshly manicured surface. His Bob Baffert-trained stablemate and GI Preakness S. winner National Treasure (Quality Road) had a light day of training, jogging the wrong way along the outer rail at 6:23 a.m. The expected Belmont S. pacesetter posted a five-furlong bullet in Elmont two days earlier.

Il Miracolo (Gun Runner), the longest shot on the Belmont morning line at 30-1, made his presence felt a few minutes later for trainer Antonio Sano while sporting a blue pair of 'AS' blinkers along with a matching shadow roll and wraps.

The imposing duo of champion Forte (Violence) and Tapit Trice (Tapit), meanwhile, were both on their toes after a 1 1/4-mile gallop and gate schooling session for Todd Pletcher on the nearby training track at 6:48 a.m. Pletcher needs one more win in the 1 1/2-mile Classic to reach even terms with the late, great Hall of Famer Woody Stephens, who won an unthinkable five straight renewals of the Belmont from 1982-86.

Red Route One (Gun Runner) also took to the training track earlier, galloping 1 1/2 miles at 6:00 a.m.

The 'morning rush' concluded with Arcangelo (Arrogate)–who was back at it galloping on the main track a day after being credited with an unplanned four-furlong bullet workout in :48.94 (1/11)–while a small group of media assembled outside of Pletcher's barn to get a closer look at the two aforementioned likely favorites in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

With the Air Quality Index (AQI) hovering around an 'Unhealthy' 160 a day before the three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is slated to get underway, NYRA's Vice President of Communications Pat McKenna said in a statement, “NYRA utilizes external weather services and advanced on-site equipment to monitor weather conditions and air quality in and around Belmont Park. Training was conducted normally (Wednesday), and NYRA will continue to assess the overall environment to ensure the safety of training and racing throughout the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.”

When the AQI is at 175 or higher, live racing could be canceled, according to HISA's air quality guidelines.

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