TIF’s Cummings Takes on Issue of Timing Problems

One day after Bill Finley wrote about inconsistencies in timing at a handful of racetracks in the U.S.–both big and small–in Wednesday’s TDN, Pat Cummings, the Executive Director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation, has penned a piece of his own, explaining why accuracy in timing is paramount to the game and offering a framework for how to move forward.

“The state of race timing in America is not improving as the years pass. It is getting worse,” writes Cummings, who served as the director of racing information for Trakus for the better part of four years from November 2011 through June 2015.

As the result of a deal between Equibase and the British-based Total Performance Data (TPD), races at a total of 11 American racetracks now rely on a GPS-based system known as Gmax. The system debuted in the U.S. in 2017 and is being used for this first time this summer at Del Mar. But as Finley and Cummings each point out, Gmax has been so unreliable as to force figure makers in this country to rely not on reported times, but on their own hand-timing of races.

“We have discovered that the final times, which is really all you are concerned with when making speed figures, from these tracks are not accurate enough at Gmax tracks to enable us to publish accurate speed figures,” noted Randy Moss, recognizable to most from his role as a racing commentator, but who has also been involved with making Beyer Speed Figures for Daily Racing Form for many years, in Finley’s story. “For the last month plus, we have been using our own times generated by video timing instead of the final times posted by the Gmax timer.”

Indeed, after finding that a handful of races from the Aug. 1 card at Del Mar–a program that also included the GI Bing Crosby S., a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race–TIF undertook an investigation of races at other tracks on the same day. Fully eight of the 11 live races at Woodbine Aug. 1 (as of the charts that existed Aug. 4) and two-thirds of Laurel Park’s nine races had different times on their live feeds compared to what the chart was reporting.

“An accurate time is a fundamental element of regulated horse races,” Cummings writes. “It has become clear that our sport has not evolved with more modern technology, but rather taken a technology, ignored whether it is at least as accurate as the technology it is replacing, and shoved a square peg into a round hole.

“Questioning Equibase’s GPS play is not being critical of all innovation and hoping to quash it, it is being critical of technological backpedaling which is being positioned as exactly the opposite.”

Click here to read the entire piece from Pat Cummings.

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Equibase Analysis: Tiz The Law Has ‘Triple Advantage’ In Travers

The Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers Stakes is undoubtedly the biggest race on a star-studded card at Saratoga on Saturday, August 8. With four weeks to go until the first Saturday in September, it's one of the last three opportunities for horses to gain points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will allow them to enter the starting gate next month. The last two races in the series are the Ellis Park Derby (Sunday, Aug. 9) and the Pegasus Stakes (Saturday, Aug. 15).

The eight horse field for the Travers is led by division leader Tiz the Law, who is undefeated in three races this year. As the points leader, Tiz the Law doesn't need to win the race to run in the Kentucky Derby but as he has dominated the division this winter, spring and summer it is likely he will win. Country Grammer and Caracaro arguably are horses that can improve and provide the favorite with a challenge, having just finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes last month.

Uncle Chuck ships out from California for trainer Bob Baffert, having scratched out of the Shared Belief Stakes last week for this race. He enters the race off a win in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby and is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice to date in his career. South Bend proved competitive in the 3-year-old division when last seen at the end of June, rallying from 10th in the early stages to come up just three-quarters of a length shy of winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

Max Player also rallied late in a race in the division when third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June but still was five and one-quarter lengths in arrears of Tiz the Law. Shivaree made his mark earlier this year when second behind Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but most recently finished 11th in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. First Line rounds out the field, taking a huge step up in class following a maiden victory at Saratoga 10 days ago.

In terms of how fast he's run, Tiz the Law stands out in this year's Runhappy Travers Field. In his first start as a 3-year-old in February, Tiz the Law earned a spectacular 117 Equibase Speed Figure, which is unheard of for that time of year. Nearly two months later when dominating in the Florida Derby by four and one-quarter lengths, Tiz the Law earned a 112 figure, then following nearly three more months off he earned a 113 figure winning the Belmont Stakes. Not only did Tiz the Law dominate and beat a total of 23 other horses in those three races by an average of 3 1/2 lengths, he never gave any other horse a chance to win in the last eighth of a mile. Putting those figures in perspective, they amount to a “triple advantage,” as the lowest of the three figures is higher than the best figure of any of the other seven horses in this race. With the ability to relax in second or third in the early stages of his races then find another gear to drive by the field and coast home, Tiz the Law is likely to win the Travers Stakes as easily as he has won his other three races this year and enter the gate for the Kentucky Derby as the first prohibitive favorite in many years.

That being said, it is not totally out of the realm of possibility either Caracaro or Country Grammer could post the upset to win the Travers. Three weeks ago in the Peter Pan Stakes run at the slightly shorter distance of one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga, Country Grammer and Caracaro engaged in a stirring stretch battle, with Caracaro securing the advantage by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and Country Grammer asserting himself on the finish line by that same margin. They both earned 95 figures for the race, which isn't even in the same area code as the 113 figure Tiz the Law earned a few weeks earlier winning the Belmont Stakes. Still, both colts had run better prior to that and have the breeding to run even better at this mile and one-quarter distance. Caracaro improved to a 103 figure in January in only the second start of his career, an 11 point improvement off his debut. As such, having been off from January until the Peter Pan six months later, improving another 11 points off the 95 figure effort puts him in line with the 117 figure effort Tiz the Law put forth in his best this year. Country Grammer had been off for three months before his June 4 prep for the Peter Pan in which he finished third with a 98 figure and he too could leap frog past that previous best to have a big say in the outcome of the Travers.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is First Line (96), Max Player (105), Shivaree (106), South Bend (98) and Uncle Chuck (98).

Win Contenders:
Tiz the Law
Caracaro
Country Grammer

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 8 – Post Time 6:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: Fox Sports 5 – 6:30 PM E.T.

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Handle Soars in July, Tops $1 Billion

The total amount wagered on U.S. races in July saw a 16.63% increase over 2019 figures, the best month the sport has had this year and a sign that the effects of the coronavirus are no longer negatively impacting handle. The July handle of $1,098,728 was the first $1 billion-plus monthly handle on the year.

Prior to the release of the figures, there had already been signs that July was going to be a good month. The handle for GI Haskell S. day at Monmouth was over $20 million, the most that track has handled outside of the Breeders’ Cup. NYRA reported that handle at Saratoga for the opening weekend was up 9.4%.

The July numbers were a welcome sign after handle was battered by coronavirus shutdowns in March, April and May. Handle was down at least 22% all three months and fell by 30.16% in May, which, in a normal year, would have included the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness S. Those races have been postponed until later this year.

Thanks in large part to the July numbers, total handle is down only 6.96% on the year.

The number of races run during the month and the number of race days remained on the decline. There were 3,290 races, a 12.35% drop off from last year, and 484 race days, a 17.77% decrease. But wagering on the races that were run was robust. The average amount wagered per race day was $2,761,165, a 41.83% increase.

Average field size also inched up. It was 7.97 starters per race versus 7.4 in July, 2019.

Perhaps the only negative news in the figures released Wednesday by Equibase came in the category of total purses. They were $90,224,084 in July, down 12.69% from last year. But average purses per race day was up, by 6.17%. For the year, purses are down $233 million or 35.99%.

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Economic Indicators: Total 2020 Handle Continues To Show Signs Of Recovery

Equibase, LLC released its monthly report on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing this Wednesday, Aug. 5. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Equibase is currently providing monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

While the pandemic means most tracks are currently racing without fans, average daily wagering in 2020 continues to show strong increases over 2019 numbers as racing remains one of the few sports able to operate in concert with pandemic protocols. In the month of July, average daily wagering was up 41.83 percent in 2020, while the year-to-date figures show an increase of 41.72 percent.

Overall wagering figures are still showing the effects of the rescheduled Kentucky Derby, though year-to-date total handle is down just 6.96 percent thus far in 2020. Considering that the total number of race days and races held in 2020 are down 34.25 percent and 33.08 percent, respectively, the total handle is actually doing quite well.

Additionally, numbers from the first six months of 2020 showed year-to-date wagering down 10.88 percent, so the differential is decreasing as 2020 goes on and racing adjusts to a “new normal.”

Whether the Kentucky Derby will be able to be held with fans present remains to be seen, and that could affect how handle continues to recover through the remaining months of one of the most unique years in recent history.

July 2020 vs. July 2019
Indicator July 2020 July 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,098,943,728 $942,243,633 +16.63%
U.S. Purses $90,224,084 $103,342,574 -12.69%
U.S. Race Days 398 484 -17.77%
U.S. Races 3,280 3,742 -12.35%
U.S. Starts 24,984 26,612 -6.12%
Average Field Size 7.62 7.11 +7.11%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,761,165 $1,946,784 +41.83%
Average Purses Per Race Day $226,694 $213,518 +6.17%

 

 

YTD 2020 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2020 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $6,154,466,247 $6,615,017,905 -6.96%
U.S. Purses $414,380,742 $647,344,706 -35.99%
U.S. Race Days 1,699 2,588 -34.35%
U.S. Races 14,186 21,199 -33.08%
U.S. Starts 113,058 156,851 -27.92%
Average Field Size 7.97 7.40 +7.71%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,622,405 $2,556,035 +41.72%
Average Purses Per Race Day $243,897 $250,133 -2.49%

 

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