Equibase Analysis: Masqueparade Poised To Upset Travers

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Runhappy Travers Stakes brings together a seven horse group of 3-year-olds vying for top honors in one of the most prestigious races of the summer. Oddly enough, three of the seven didn't run in the Kentucky Derby three months ago and the other four managed finish positions of fourth, sixth, seventh and 18th. Still, the combined earnings of the seven runners is over $6 million, led by Essential Quality, winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in his last two races.

Jim Dandy runner-up Keepmeinmind is winless in six races since taking the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Masqueparade finished third in the Jim Dandy after winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby and may be the lone front runner in the field. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January to get on the radar among top 3-year-olds but is winless in five races since then although it must be noted he was in position to win the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes last month before clipping another horse's heels and losing his jockey.

The recent one-two finishers of the non-graded Curlin Stakes – Dynamic One and Miles D, respectively, hope to improve and be competitive at this level, while King Fury hopes to rebound to the form shown when rallying from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby before a non-threating 10th place effort on turf in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes earlier this month.

Masqueparade could have an edge in this seven horse field as a lone front runner due to the fact none of the others have truly shown a desire to lead early in a race. Starting with his runner-up effort at a mile and one-sixteenth in March, a race he might have won if not bumped by the original winner before being place first when that one was disqualified, Masqueparade has been in front or very close the lead from shortly after the start in four straight races. When winning one of those races on May 1, Masqueparade earned a stellar 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which just one point shy of the 109 figures Essential Quality has earned in three of his last four races.

Considering Essential Quality will go to post as the prohibitive betting favorite, Masqueparade offers much better value for any bets we make involving this race because he has as much of a chance to win as Essential Quality if both repeat their best recent efforts. Although Masqueparade was no match for Essential Quality last month in the Jim Dandy Stakes when third, there was a different early pace scenario that day as another horse led and Masqueparade stalked that pacesetter before making the lead with a quarter mile to go before being passed by Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind. In this situation it could be Masqueparade who dictates the early tempo and as such he has a shot to relax on the lead and get very brave to post the upset win.

Essential Quality has now won seven of eight career starts for a bankroll of $3.5 million. His only poor effort came at the distance of the Travers when he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but jockey Luis Saez hasn't made the same mistake of getting Essential Quality hung wide throughout the race, resulting in two strong wins in a row. The first of the two came in the Belmont Stakes with a 109 ™ figure, followed by a similarly strong effort in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga one month ago in which the colt earned a 107 figure. As such, if Masqueparade can't lead from start to finish the horse most likely to pass late to win the Travers is Essential Quality.

King Fury and Keepmeinmind both have slight chances to win and big chances to finish second or third to complete any exacta or trifecta tickets played. King Fury came up slightly ill right before the Derby and had to skip the race, then closed very well from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby, earning a career-best 105 figure in the process. Not finding a race to run in after that in order to prep for the Travers, King Fury was entered in the Saratoga Derby Invitational three weeks ago on turf, a surface he had never run over previously. Finishing 10th of 11 in that race, the only thing that proved was he is much more well suited to dirt and so on the return to dirt and based on his effort in the Ohio Derby, King Fury could be a factor in the Travers.

Similarly, Keepmeinmind missed by a half-length to Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby in June then by a similar margin to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy, earning 105 then 106 figure not far enough afield from the likely favorite to discount Keepmeinmind's chances completely. Particularly the Travers being his second start of the Saratoga meeting, Keepmeinmind running as well or better as he did one month ago shouldn't surprise anyone.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Dynamic One (103), Midnight Bourbon (99) and Miles D (100).

Win Contenders:
Masqueparade
Essential Quality

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 28 – Post Time 6:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1.25 Million

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Jockey Club Round Table: HISA ‘Best Ever Opportunity To Right Our Badly Listing Ship’

The 69th Annual Round Table Conference on Matters Pertaining to Racing concluded Sunday with emphatic support for the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) by The Jockey Club Chairman Stuart S. Janney III, who presided over the conference and referenced in his closing remarks the arguments made by groups in the racing industry that have stated their opposition to HISA.

“When the history of this is written, it will be clear who the obstructionists were and who opposed this industry's best ever opportunity to right our badly listing ship,” Janney said. “I am proud to stand with those who support HISA, and I look forward to the needed reform it will bring to our industry and to seeing our ship finally sailing a straight course.”

Sunday's event was held virtually and streamed on jockeyclub.com and made available on NYRA's YouTube channel, Racetrack Television Network's respective platforms, and bloodhorse.com.

Janney was preceded by presentations from Charles Scheeler, chair of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority board of directors, and Dr. Tessa Muir, director of Equine Science for the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA).

Scheeler described the components of the authority's work ahead, which include the establishment of an anti-doping and medication testing program and a safety program; constituency outreach; and utilizing the industry's plethora of data, much of which will be sourced from The Jockey Club's databases. In advance of the implementation of HISA next year, plans call for the authority's board and standing committees to publish proposed rules for public comment before they are submitted to the Federal Trade Commission.

“What I saw when [I looked at HISA] was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make the sport safer for horses and jockeys, to serve the overwhelming majority of horse people who want to win fairly and who want to play by the rules…” Scheeler said.

Muir spoke of USADA's plans to work with the Thoroughbred industry, including leveraging expertise for both human and equine athletes to create best practices.

“Our aspiration is to establish and maintain a uniform and harmonized program that is centered on promoting and safeguarding the health and welfare of horses and protects the rights of all participants to race clean and win fairly,” she said.

Emily Lyman, founder and chief executive officer of Branch & Bramble, a digital marketing agency used by America's Best Racing (ABR), discussed how “social listening” online can be used to gauge public sentiment of horse racing and how highly publicized events can have a positive or negative impact on how the sport is viewed. She talked about how ABR's marketing strategy is influenced by this data and that influencers can be effectively used as brand ambassadors to introduce new audiences to horse racing.

“Maintaining the status quo doesn't protect a brand's long-term health,” Lyman said. “Without growth in impressions and public sentiment, your key audience will eventually die out.”

Will Duff Gordon, the chief executive officer of Total Performance Data (TPD), spoke in a presentation with Will Bradley, director and founder of Gmax Technology Ltd., on how TPD and Gmax have collaborated to create timing systems for horse races and how they are working with Equibase to determine how the tracking data can supplement and enhance the information that Equibase provides. They noted that this information will become more valuable with the expansion of sports betting in the United States.

“We do know from our European experience that sports that have the richest set of data, as well as pictures, as well as odds, capture the most betting turnover and handle,” Gordon said.

Dr. Yuval Neria, professor of Medical Psychology at Columbia University and director of the PTSD Research Center, was joined by Dr. Prudence Fisher, associate professor of Clinical Psychiatric Social Work at Columbia University, to talk about the Man O' War Project, which was founded by Ambassador Earle I. Mack. It is the first university-led research study to examine the effectiveness of equine-assisted therapy (EAT) in treating veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder.

Neria described the findings as “extremely encouraging,” noting measurable changes in the parts of the brain involved in the capacity to seek and experience pleasure among trial participants. There were also decreases in symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression.

Moving forward, plans call for the creation of the Man O' War Center, with goals to train others in EAT protocol for veterans, adopt the protocol for other groups, pursue a larger research study, and expand the use of former racehorses for equine-assisted therapy work.

“We are proud to partner with the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance to connect groups trained in the Man O' War protocol with accredited aftercare facilities,” said Fisher. “It's a great way to incorporate more retired Thoroughbreds in EAT programs throughout the country.”

Kristin Werner, senior counsel for The Jockey Club and administrator of The Jockey Club's Thoroughbred Incentive Program, moderated an aftercare panel with panelists Erin Crady, executive director, Thoroughbred Charities of America (TCA); Brian Sanfratello, executive secretary, Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association (PHBA); Beverly Strauss, executive director, MidAtlantic Horse Rescue; and Dr. Emily Weiss, vice president, Equine Welfare, American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA).

Each panelist shared their perspectives on challenges in the aftercare landscape, from securing a safe first exit from the racetrack to placing retired breeding stock. Crady talked about the TCA's Horses First Fund, which helps Thoroughbreds in case of an emergency.

“Plan, plan, and plan some more,” Crady said. If you've prepared a business plan for your racing operation, include a section on aftercare.

“Please remember one thing that I feel is paramount to your horse's future. Make every effort to retire your horse while he or she is still sound. A sound Thoroughbred can have an unlimited future.”

Strauss talked about the kill buyer market and the frequent social media frenzies when Thoroughbreds are offered for inflated prices to save them from being sold to slaughter. She warned that individuals and organizations that participate in these practices are often scams.

“If you're contacted because one of your former horses is in a kill pen, do some research, don't just throw money at it, don't just send money blindly, do research and see that the horse truly is in a bad place and then ensure its safety,” Strauss said.

Sanfratello detailed the PHBA's stance on aftercare and its creation of a code of ethics that will sanction those who knowingly send horses registered with the PHBA to slaughter.

“Our board understands that aftercare is just as important as making sure that we increase the numbers of mares bred,” Sanfratello said.

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Weiss focused on the work of the ASPCA's Right Horse Initiative, which assists with placing horses in transition. She noted that a problem seen with placing horses is that Thoroughbreds are often not located where the demand for them exists.

“There's some disconnect between the interest in the general public and getting these horses into their hands, and part of that is just getting those horses where those people are,” she said.

David O'Rourke, the president and chief executive officer of the New York Racing Association (NYRA), provided an update on that organization's efforts to promote safety, integrity, and the sport of racing. According to O'Rourke, NYRA has allotted 50% of its capital budget since 2013 to infrastructure improvements such as new track surfaces, barns, and dormitories. He also addressed the legalization of sports betting and NYRA's belief that this represents a critical opportunity for horse racing to expand its wagering options and boost handle

James L. Gagliano, president and chief operating officer of The Jockey Club, delivered a report on the activities of The Jockey Club.

Also in his closing remarks, Janney announced that Len Coleman and Dr. Nancy Cox, co-chairs of the nominating committee of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, have been awarded The Jockey Club Medal for exceptional contributions to the Thoroughbred industry.

A video replay of the conference will be available on jockeyclub.com this afternoon, and full transcripts will be available on the same site this week.

The Jockey Club Round Table Conference was first held on July 1, 1953, in The Jockey Club office in New York City. The following year, it was moved to Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The Jockey Club, founded in 1894 and dedicated to the improvement of Thoroughbred breeding and racing, is the breed registry for North American Thoroughbreds. In fulfillment of its mission, The Jockey Club, directly or through subsidiaries, provides support and leadership on a wide range of important industry initiatives, and it serves the information and technology needs of owners, breeders, media, fans, and farms. It founded America's Best Racing (americasbestracing.net), the broad-based fan development initiative for Thoroughbred racing, and in partnership with the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, operates OwnerView (ownerview.com), the ownership resource. Additional information is available at jockeyclub.com.

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Equibase Analysis: Armory Poised To Upset Domestic Spending In Mr. D.

This Saturday's Grade 1, $600,000 Mr. D. Stakes, formerly the Arlington Million, features a strong field of 10 including Domestic Spending (GB), who has reeled off three straight Grade 1 stakes wins, the most recent of which came in the Manhattan Stakes in June at the distance of the Mr. D. Stakes.

Zulu Alpha, who leads the field in career earnings at $2.2 million, makes his second start following 10 months off and hopes to run back to his form of 2020 when winning three of five graded stakes including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Bizzee Channel just won the local prep for this race, the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes and goes for his third win in a row. Then there's Armory (IRE) – from the barn of Aiden O'Brien (who will bring along world class jockey Ryan Moore from across the pond as well) – who finished fourth in the Group 2 York Stakes in his most recent race and who won the Group 2 Hurley Stakes earlier this year.

Two Emmys missed by a head to Bizzee Channel in the Arlington Stakes and could be up to the task, as could Arlington Stakes third-place finisher Another Mystery. Strong Tide finished sixth in the non-graded Johnathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes in his most recent start and similarly Glynn County was fifth in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes around the same time and both appear overmatched in this field. Big Dreaming finished second in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer and enters the race off an allowance win but is taking a very big step up on class to this grade 1 stakes level. Space Traveler (GB) is another European import. He has never run farther than one mile in his 19-race career and his most recent win came in the non-graded Ganton Stakes in June at a mile.

Armory (IRE) can add to the success European imports have had in Grade 1 races in the U.S. this summer, similar to Bolshoi Ballet winning the Belmont Derby and State of Rest winning the Saratoga Invitational Derby last weekend. Armory (IRE) has won five of 15 career starts, including one at this 10-furlong turf trip and one at the slightly longer distance of one and five-sixteenths miles. After a runner-up effort in the Group 1 Cox Plate in Australia last October, Armory (IRE) took time off to mature and returned as a 4-year-old to win the Hurley Stakes in May, earning a then career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. Next, even when third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes in June at Royal Ascot, Armory (IRE) ran fantastically well when checking in third behind sensational turf star Love, improving his career-best figure to 122. Most recently, Armory finished third in the York Stakes last month, behind another superstar in Bangkok, with a 115 figure effort. Jockey Ryan Moore, who rode the trainer's Bolshoi Ballet to victory in the Belmont Derby earlier this year, comes in from Europe to ride and the only time he rode Armory (IRE) this year was to victory in the Hurley Stakes, which suggests Armory (IRE) is ready to win for the sixth time in his 16th career start and emerge victorious in the Mr. D. Stakes.

Domestic Spending (GB) is the strongest challenger to Armory (IRE) in this race, having earned a 119™ figure when winning the Manhattan Stakes on Belmont Stakes day in June in his most recent start. Now having won four stakes in a row starting with the 2020 Saratoga Derby, Domestic Spending (GB) has proven he loves firing big off short rests, such as when winning the Hollywood Derby last fall and when winning the Turf Classic Stakes in May. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for his last two wins and knows exactly when to tell Domestic Spending (GB) to change gears, just as he did in the Manhattan when going from 11 lengths behind the leader in seventh after a mile, to second with an eighth of a mile to go, before drawing off to win by nearly three lengths. Now possessing a six for seven in his career, if Domestic Spending (GB) runs as expected the likely stretch battle between him and Armory (IRE) may be one for the ages.

Zulu Alpha leads the field with 12 career wins and $2.2 million in earnings. Although more known as a horse who loves to run a mile and one-half, the distance he won the Elkhorn Stakes (116™ figure) last year, Zulu Alpha has won at this 10 furlong trip as well and he has won on the Arlington Park turf course as well, something neither Armory (IRE) or Domestic Spending (GB) can claim. Having been away from the races since last September, Zulu Alpha's fifth-place finish in the Arlington Stakes last month can be viewed as a prep for this race. Having earned a career-best 123 figure in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes last year and a 116 figure in the Elkhorn, there can be little doubt Zulu Alpha can run well enough to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Another Mystery (113), Big Dreaming (106), Bizzee Channel (111), Glynn County (105), Space Traveller (GB) (112), Strong Tide (115) and Two Emmys (108).

Win contenders:
Armory (IRE)
Domestic Spending (GB)
Zulu Alpha

Mr. D. Stakes – Grade 1
Race 9 at Arlington Park
Saturday August 14 – Post Time 7:13 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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Equibase Economic Indicators For July: Decline In Field Size Affecting Wagering

Equibase, North American horse racing's official database, has released wagering statistics for the month of July and year to date, with comparisons to the COVID-19 influenced numbers from 2020 and pre-COVID stats from 2019. Equibase continues to supply monthly statistics during the pandemic after typically disseminating the information on a quarterly basis.

The economic indicators show a mixed bag of results, with July wagering up by 0.33 percent compared to July 2020 despite the addition of nearly 12 percent more racing days and 7.65 percent more races.

Wagering numbers undoubtedly were tempered by the nearly nine percent decline in average field size in July 2021, 6.95 horses per race compared with 7.62 in 2020. That contributed to a 10 percent decline in average wagering per race day. With fewer race days in July 2020 and for the first seven months of the year due to COVID shutdowns of some tracks, field size was greater in 2020.

Despite the stagnant July wagering, total purses jumped by more than 22 percent, with average purses per race day up by almost 10 percent.

Comparisons to July 2019 appear more favorable, with wagering up by almost 17 percent despite an eight percent drop in race days and starts. Average field size declined by 2.33 percent from July 2019 to July 2021.

Year-to-date figure comparisons to both 2020 and 2019 tell a similar story: wagering  is up double digits, but average field size has declined (though by less than one percent compared to 2019 year-to-date when there were 10 percent more race days). Total purses are up year-to-date by 51 percent compared to 2020 where there were 36 percent fewer races but they are down by 3.35 percent compared with 2019.

July 2021 vs. July 2020
Indicator July 2021 July 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,101,617,446 $1,098,021,143 +0.33%
U.S. Purses $110,489,273 $90,220,894 +22.47%
U.S. Race Days 445 398 +11.81%
U.S. Races 3,531 3,280 +7.65%
U.S. Starts 24,527 24,984 -1.83%
Average Field Size 6.95 7.62 -8.81%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,475,545 $2,758,847 -10.27%
Average Purses Per Race Day $248,291 $226,686 +9.53%

 

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $7,379,543,305 $6,152,548,050 +19.94%
U.S. Purses $625,643,005 $414,389,542 +50.98%
U.S. Race Days 2,326 1,699 +36.90%
U.S. Races 19,323 14,186 +36.21%
U.S. Starts 141,830 113,058 +25.45%
Average Field Size 7.34 7.97 -7.90%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,172,633 $3,621,276 -12.39%
Average Purses Per Race Day $268,978 $243,902 +10.28%

 

2019 Comparisons:

July 2021 vs. July 2019
Indicator July 2021 July 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,101,617,446 $942,243,633 +16.91%
U.S. Purses $110,489,273 $103,342,574 +6.92%
U.S. Race Days 445 484 -8.06%
U.S. Races 3,531 3,742 -5.64%
U.S. Starts 24,527 26,612 -7.83%
Average Field Size 6.95 7.11 -2.33%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,475,545 $1,946,784 +27.16%
Average Purses Per Race Day $248,291 $213,518 +16.29%

 

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $7,379,543,305 $6,615,017,905 +11.56%
U.S. Purses $625,643,005 $647,344,706 -3.35%
U.S. Race Days 2,326 2,588 -10.12%
U.S. Races 19,323 21,199 -8.85%
U.S. Starts 141,830 156,851 -9.58%
Average Field Size 7.34 7.40 -0.80%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,172,633 $2,556,035 +24.12%
Average Purses Per Race Day $268,978 $250,133 +7.53%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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