Tag: equibase analysis

Equibase Analysis: Masqueparade Poised To Upset Travers

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Runhappy Travers Stakes brings together a seven horse group of 3-year-olds vying for top honors in one of the most prestigious races of the summer. Oddly enough, three of the seven didn't run in the Kentucky Derby three months ago and the other four managed finish positions of fourth, sixth, seventh and 18th. Still, the combined earnings of the seven runners is over $6 million, led by Essential Quality, winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in his last two races.

Jim Dandy runner-up Keepmeinmind is winless in six races since taking the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Masqueparade finished third in the Jim Dandy after winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby and may be the lone front runner in the field. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January to get on the radar among top 3-year-olds but is winless in five races since then although it must be noted he was in position to win the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes last month before clipping another horse's heels and losing his jockey.

The recent one-two finishers of the non-graded Curlin Stakes – Dynamic One and Miles D, respectively, hope to improve and be competitive at this level, while King Fury hopes to rebound to the form shown when rallying from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby before a non-threating 10th place effort on turf in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes earlier this month.

Masqueparade could have an edge in this seven horse field as a lone front runner due to the fact none of the others have truly shown a desire to lead early in a race. Starting with his runner-up effort at a mile and one-sixteenth in March, a race he might have won if not bumped by the original winner before being place first when that one was disqualified, Masqueparade has been in front or very close the lead from shortly after the start in four straight races. When winning one of those races on May 1, Masqueparade earned a stellar 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which just one point shy of the 109 figures Essential Quality has earned in three of his last four races.

Considering Essential Quality will go to post as the prohibitive betting favorite, Masqueparade offers much better value for any bets we make involving this race because he has as much of a chance to win as Essential Quality if both repeat their best recent efforts. Although Masqueparade was no match for Essential Quality last month in the Jim Dandy Stakes when third, there was a different early pace scenario that day as another horse led and Masqueparade stalked that pacesetter before making the lead with a quarter mile to go before being passed by Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind. In this situation it could be Masqueparade who dictates the early tempo and as such he has a shot to relax on the lead and get very brave to post the upset win.

Essential Quality has now won seven of eight career starts for a bankroll of $3.5 million. His only poor effort came at the distance of the Travers when he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but jockey Luis Saez hasn't made the same mistake of getting Essential Quality hung wide throughout the race, resulting in two strong wins in a row. The first of the two came in the Belmont Stakes with a 109 ™ figure, followed by a similarly strong effort in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga one month ago in which the colt earned a 107 figure. As such, if Masqueparade can't lead from start to finish the horse most likely to pass late to win the Travers is Essential Quality.

King Fury and Keepmeinmind both have slight chances to win and big chances to finish second or third to complete any exacta or trifecta tickets played. King Fury came up slightly ill right before the Derby and had to skip the race, then closed very well from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby, earning a career-best 105 figure in the process. Not finding a race to run in after that in order to prep for the Travers, King Fury was entered in the Saratoga Derby Invitational three weeks ago on turf, a surface he had never run over previously. Finishing 10th of 11 in that race, the only thing that proved was he is much more well suited to dirt and so on the return to dirt and based on his effort in the Ohio Derby, King Fury could be a factor in the Travers.

Similarly, Keepmeinmind missed by a half-length to Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby in June then by a similar margin to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy, earning 105 then 106 figure not far enough afield from the likely favorite to discount Keepmeinmind's chances completely. Particularly the Travers being his second start of the Saratoga meeting, Keepmeinmind running as well or better as he did one month ago shouldn't surprise anyone.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Dynamic One (103), Midnight Bourbon (99) and Miles D (100).

Win Contenders:
Masqueparade
Essential Quality

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 28 – Post Time 6:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1.25 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Dr Post Poised To Upset Pacific Classic

Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar, a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, drew a field of nine this year. It's a strong group consisting of three recent graded stakes winners and another four who were in-the-money in their most recent races.

Leading the field in career earnings, with $700K banked, is the lightly raced 4-year-old Dr Post, who ships in from Todd Pletcher's summer base at Saratoga off a strong win in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup Stakes last month. Next in career success and earnings is Express Train, who has earned $659K, much of it when victorious last month in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap.

Tripoli was a half-length back in that race in his first ever stakes try and must be respected as a contender. Royal Ship was another three-quarters of a length back in the San Diego and two races prior to that won the Grade 2 Californian Stakes to prove he belongs at this level.

Tizamagician and Cupid's Claws finished first and second, respectively, in the mile and one-half Grade 2 Cougar II Stakes last month and both will attempt to run as well or better shortening up by a quarter mile. Independence Hall was a top three year old early last year when winning the Jerome Stakes on New Year's Day but has only won once in seven races since and was soundly defeated in the Californian when last seen four months ago.

Sheriff Brown, a former claiming level horse, has won six of 21 races lifetime and three of his last five but finished a far back in fifth and seventh in his two recent graded stakes races. Magic On Tap rounds out the field. Winner of the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes at seven furlongs in May, Magic On Tap enters the Pacific Classic off a non-threatening fifth-place effort in the San Diego Handicap last month.

Most of the nine entrants in this year's Pacific Classic have been taking turns beating each other:

Express Train beat Tripoli and Royal Ship in the San Diego Handicap last month but Royal Ship finished in front of Express Train seven weeks earlier when second in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Express Train beat Tizamagician in the San Pasqual Stakes this past January, then one day after the San Diego Handicap, Tizamagician beat Cupid's Claws in the Cougar II Stakes. However, Cupid's Claws had beaten Tizamagician when winning the Tokyo City Stakes last summer. When winning the Californian Stakes in April, Royal Ship beat Independence Hall ,and Express Train finished in front of Independence Hall when second in the Malibu Stakes last December. Sheriff Brown was far back in the San Diego, as was Magic On Tap, who also we well beaten by Royal Ship in the Californian.

With all that turn-taking to consider, the race is ready to be won by a new face. That new face is Dr Post, with a career-best and field high last race 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. That figure is likely to be improved upon as this will be Dr Post's second start since adding blinkers as well as his second with Joel Rosario in the saddle. Dr Post made his third start following an eight month layoff in the Monmouth Cup Stakes last month, run on the same day as the San Diego and won more easily than the one and one-quarter length margin of victory makes it appear as he was “ridden out” in the final stages. Given that his first two races this year were at the distance of a mile around one turn, the stretch out to a mile and one-eighth around two turns in the Monmouth Cup sets the stage for an even better effort in the Pacific Classic.

Express Train is the next most probable winner of this year's Pacific Classic, but unlike Dr Post (who has never run this mile and one-quarter trip), Express Train is winless in two tries at the distance. His best effort of the two tries came when beaten a half-length in the Santa Anita Handicap in March, in which he led by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and was caught near the wire. It's just unclear whether he can run his best at this distance, but coming off a big win in the San Diego Handicap last month with a 107 ™ figure, and having run so well in the Santa Anita Handicap, Express Train has every right to win this race, particularly as he may have the early lead all to himself from the start.

There's no doubt Royal Ship, Tripoli, Tizamagician and Cupid's Claws have some chance to win, but each as one negative factor in my opinion which makes that must more improbable than the top two win contenders. Royal Ship earned a 113 ™ figure winning the Californian in April and finished in front of Express Train by a head in the Gold Cup (111 figure) but disappointed badly in the San Diego when a non-threatening third as the betting favorite with no excuse. Tripoli earned a 109 ™ figure one before last in an allowance race and nearly duplicated the effort when second to Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but his six pound difference is not in effect here as they are at even weight and there's no indication he wants to run this far, having never run farther than one mile and one-sixteenth on dirt. Tizamagician (career-best 106 winning figure) and Cupid's Claws (career-best 100 figure) both sport graded stakes wins at a mile and one-half, but that doesn't mean they can run this well at the classic distance of one mile and one-quarter.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Independence Hall (110), Magic On Tap (106) and Sheriff Brown (104).

Win Contenders:
Dr Post
Express Train

TVG Pacific Classic Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, August 21 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Armory Poised To Upset Domestic Spending In Mr. D.

This Saturday's Grade 1, $600,000 Mr. D. Stakes, formerly the Arlington Million, features a strong field of 10 including Domestic Spending (GB), who has reeled off three straight Grade 1 stakes wins, the most recent of which came in the Manhattan Stakes in June at the distance of the Mr. D. Stakes.

Zulu Alpha, who leads the field in career earnings at $2.2 million, makes his second start following 10 months off and hopes to run back to his form of 2020 when winning three of five graded stakes including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes. Bizzee Channel just won the local prep for this race, the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes and goes for his third win in a row. Then there's Armory (IRE) – from the barn of Aiden O'Brien (who will bring along world class jockey Ryan Moore from across the pond as well) – who finished fourth in the Group 2 York Stakes in his most recent race and who won the Group 2 Hurley Stakes earlier this year.

Two Emmys missed by a head to Bizzee Channel in the Arlington Stakes and could be up to the task, as could Arlington Stakes third-place finisher Another Mystery. Strong Tide finished sixth in the non-graded Johnathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes in his most recent start and similarly Glynn County was fifth in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes around the same time and both appear overmatched in this field. Big Dreaming finished second in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer and enters the race off an allowance win but is taking a very big step up on class to this grade 1 stakes level. Space Traveler (GB) is another European import. He has never run farther than one mile in his 19-race career and his most recent win came in the non-graded Ganton Stakes in June at a mile.

Armory (IRE) can add to the success European imports have had in Grade 1 races in the U.S. this summer, similar to Bolshoi Ballet winning the Belmont Derby and State of Rest winning the Saratoga Invitational Derby last weekend. Armory (IRE) has won five of 15 career starts, including one at this 10-furlong turf trip and one at the slightly longer distance of one and five-sixteenths miles. After a runner-up effort in the Group 1 Cox Plate in Australia last October, Armory (IRE) took time off to mature and returned as a 4-year-old to win the Hurley Stakes in May, earning a then career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. Next, even when third in the Prince of Wales's Stakes in June at Royal Ascot, Armory (IRE) ran fantastically well when checking in third behind sensational turf star Love, improving his career-best figure to 122. Most recently, Armory finished third in the York Stakes last month, behind another superstar in Bangkok, with a 115 figure effort. Jockey Ryan Moore, who rode the trainer's Bolshoi Ballet to victory in the Belmont Derby earlier this year, comes in from Europe to ride and the only time he rode Armory (IRE) this year was to victory in the Hurley Stakes, which suggests Armory (IRE) is ready to win for the sixth time in his 16th career start and emerge victorious in the Mr. D. Stakes.

Domestic Spending (GB) is the strongest challenger to Armory (IRE) in this race, having earned a 119™ figure when winning the Manhattan Stakes on Belmont Stakes day in June in his most recent start. Now having won four stakes in a row starting with the 2020 Saratoga Derby, Domestic Spending (GB) has proven he loves firing big off short rests, such as when winning the Hollywood Derby last fall and when winning the Turf Classic Stakes in May. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for his last two wins and knows exactly when to tell Domestic Spending (GB) to change gears, just as he did in the Manhattan when going from 11 lengths behind the leader in seventh after a mile, to second with an eighth of a mile to go, before drawing off to win by nearly three lengths. Now possessing a six for seven in his career, if Domestic Spending (GB) runs as expected the likely stretch battle between him and Armory (IRE) may be one for the ages.

Zulu Alpha leads the field with 12 career wins and $2.2 million in earnings. Although more known as a horse who loves to run a mile and one-half, the distance he won the Elkhorn Stakes (116™ figure) last year, Zulu Alpha has won at this 10 furlong trip as well and he has won on the Arlington Park turf course as well, something neither Armory (IRE) or Domestic Spending (GB) can claim. Having been away from the races since last September, Zulu Alpha's fifth-place finish in the Arlington Stakes last month can be viewed as a prep for this race. Having earned a career-best 123 figure in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes last year and a 116 figure in the Elkhorn, there can be little doubt Zulu Alpha can run well enough to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Another Mystery (113), Big Dreaming (106), Bizzee Channel (111), Glynn County (105), Space Traveller (GB) (112), Strong Tide (115) and Two Emmys (108).

Win contenders:
Armory (IRE)
Domestic Spending (GB)
Zulu Alpha

Mr. D. Stakes – Grade 1
Race 9 at Arlington Park
Saturday August 14 – Post Time 7:13 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $600,000

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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Poised To Upset Bing Crosby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall and as such drew a field full of very good sprinters, nine to be exact. Last year's Bing Crosby Stakes winner Collusion Illusion is back to defend his title but whereas he was sent to post at nine to five odds one year ago on the strength of three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, this year Collusion Illusion returns from seven months off and lost his last three starts of 2020.

Instead, favoritism is likely to go to C Z Rocket with career earnings of nearly $1.4 million, much of that earned when second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and when winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Law Abidin Citizen was third in last year's Bing Crosby behind Collusion Illusion then four weeks later finished third in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket. He enters the race off a win in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes four weeks ago at Pleasanton.

Vertical Threat is another with strong stakes credentials, last seen winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in November and having also won the Smiling Tiger Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Quick Tempo returned from nearly seven months off four weeks ago for a strong second place effort in the Iowa Sprint Stakes, while Brickyard Ride easily won the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes in March and enters the race off a win in the Thor's Echo Stakes.

Shooters Shoot is yet another with good credentials in similar sprint stakes as he was second in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes when last seen at the end of May. Eight Rings finished fourth in that race as the eight to five favorite and hasn't run since. Dr. Schivel rounds out the field, but has to be considered a contender as he won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and returned from nine months off to win just last month.

Vertical Threat is a perfect three-for-three in sprints. Each of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Bing Crosby. One of those wins came at Del Mar last summer when, in only the second start of his career, Vertical Threat won the Smiling Tiger Stakes. That effort earned him a career-best 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure off a 102 figure one month earlier. After a failed attempt at a longer distance in the Pat Day Mile last September, Vertical Threat rested two months and shipped to Ohio for a dominant performance with a field high 118 figure winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in a field of 12. In this year's Bing Crosby there is likely to be a contested early pace battle between Quick Tempo and Brickyard Ride, who have only won when leading from the start. Considering Vertical Threat closed from off the pace to win last June then again in July in the Smiling Tiger, the colt could get first run on the tiring leaders and hold off any horses farther back in the early stages. Additionally, he's very likely to be stronger as a four year old so having put in some superb workouts for his comeback, Vertical Threat has a fine chance to keep his perfect record at the distance intact to win.

C Z Rocket has won 11 of 26 career races including four of eight at this distance. He also won the only time he ever raced at Del Mar. That win came last year when taking the Pat O'Brien Stakes at seven furlongs in August with a 110 ™ figure. C Z Rocket is even faster at this six furlong trip, as he earned a 117 figure last September when victorious in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit when second behind Whitmore in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall, C Z Rocket won his first two starts of 2021, first with a 111 figure in the Hot Springs Stakes then a 114 in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Stretching out to a mile and running over a sloppy track, C Z Rocket was second in the Steve Sexton Mile in May and on the cut back to his best distance has every right to rebound to a winning effort.

Dr. Schivel, like Vertical Threat, has only run five times. He improved markedly last summer at Del Mar when easily winning to break his maiden in his third career start (with a 108 figure) before victory in the Del Mar Futurity as the betting favorite. Taking his time to get back to the races, Dr. Schivel returned in June as if he had never been away as he relaxed in fourth in the early stages before getting up by a neck right on the wire. That effort earned him a new career best 109 figure from which he should improve in his second start off the layoff, and as a previous grade 1 stakes winner, Dr. Schivel could certainly run well enough to win.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Brickyard Ride (115), Collusion Illusion (111), Eight Rings (104), Law Abidin Citizen (108), Quick Tempo (107) and Shooters Shoot (101).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Dr. Schivel

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, July 31 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $300,000

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