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Equibase Analysis: Tiz The Law Has ‘Triple Advantage’ In Travers

The Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers Stakes is undoubtedly the biggest race on a star-studded card at Saratoga on Saturday, August 8. With four weeks to go until the first Saturday in September, it's one of the last three opportunities for horses to gain points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will allow them to enter the starting gate next month. The last two races in the series are the Ellis Park Derby (Sunday, Aug. 9) and the Pegasus Stakes (Saturday, Aug. 15).

The eight horse field for the Travers is led by division leader Tiz the Law, who is undefeated in three races this year. As the points leader, Tiz the Law doesn't need to win the race to run in the Kentucky Derby but as he has dominated the division this winter, spring and summer it is likely he will win. Country Grammer and Caracaro arguably are horses that can improve and provide the favorite with a challenge, having just finished first and second, respectively, in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes last month.

Uncle Chuck ships out from California for trainer Bob Baffert, having scratched out of the Shared Belief Stakes last week for this race. He enters the race off a win in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby and is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice to date in his career. South Bend proved competitive in the 3-year-old division when last seen at the end of June, rallying from 10th in the early stages to come up just three-quarters of a length shy of winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby.

Max Player also rallied late in a race in the division when third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June but still was five and one-quarter lengths in arrears of Tiz the Law. Shivaree made his mark earlier this year when second behind Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Florida Derby but most recently finished 11th in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes. First Line rounds out the field, taking a huge step up in class following a maiden victory at Saratoga 10 days ago.

In terms of how fast he's run, Tiz the Law stands out in this year's Runhappy Travers Field. In his first start as a 3-year-old in February, Tiz the Law earned a spectacular 117 Equibase Speed Figure, which is unheard of for that time of year. Nearly two months later when dominating in the Florida Derby by four and one-quarter lengths, Tiz the Law earned a 112 figure, then following nearly three more months off he earned a 113 figure winning the Belmont Stakes. Not only did Tiz the Law dominate and beat a total of 23 other horses in those three races by an average of 3 1/2 lengths, he never gave any other horse a chance to win in the last eighth of a mile. Putting those figures in perspective, they amount to a “triple advantage,” as the lowest of the three figures is higher than the best figure of any of the other seven horses in this race. With the ability to relax in second or third in the early stages of his races then find another gear to drive by the field and coast home, Tiz the Law is likely to win the Travers Stakes as easily as he has won his other three races this year and enter the gate for the Kentucky Derby as the first prohibitive favorite in many years.

That being said, it is not totally out of the realm of possibility either Caracaro or Country Grammer could post the upset to win the Travers. Three weeks ago in the Peter Pan Stakes run at the slightly shorter distance of one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga, Country Grammer and Caracaro engaged in a stirring stretch battle, with Caracaro securing the advantage by a head with an eighth of a mile to go and Country Grammer asserting himself on the finish line by that same margin. They both earned 95 figures for the race, which isn't even in the same area code as the 113 figure Tiz the Law earned a few weeks earlier winning the Belmont Stakes. Still, both colts had run better prior to that and have the breeding to run even better at this mile and one-quarter distance. Caracaro improved to a 103 figure in January in only the second start of his career, an 11 point improvement off his debut. As such, having been off from January until the Peter Pan six months later, improving another 11 points off the 95 figure effort puts him in line with the 117 figure effort Tiz the Law put forth in his best this year. Country Grammer had been off for three months before his June 4 prep for the Peter Pan in which he finished third with a 98 figure and he too could leap frog past that previous best to have a big say in the outcome of the Travers.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is First Line (96), Max Player (105), Shivaree (106), South Bend (98) and Uncle Chuck (98).

Win Contenders:
Tiz the Law
Caracaro
Country Grammer

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 8 – Post Time 6:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: Fox Sports 5 – 6:30 PM E.T.

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Equibase Analysis: Authentic Out For Redemption In Grade 1 Haskell

This year's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes is both a “Road to the Derby” points race and a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, so extra attention is warranted. Seven 3-year-old colts are expected to line up, led by multiple stakes winner Authentic, who suffered the first defeat of his career last month when second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby after victories in both the Grade 3 Sham Stakes in January and Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes in March.

His biggest opponent appears to be Dr Post, an improving colt who won the Unbridled Stakes in April before a runner-up finish behind division leader Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes last month. Lebda is another with credentials in the division having won the Miracle Wood Stakes and Private Terms Stakes in February and March, respectively, before a sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month.

Ny Traffic enters the race off back-to-back runner-up efforts in similar races in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March and then in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes in May. Ancient Warrior and Jesus' Team are two horses that are trying stakes competition for the first time, while Fame to Famous has finished no better than third in three stakes tries to date and only one on dirt, in which he finished last of 11.

Dr Post appears capable of posting the very mild upset over betting favorite Authentic in this year's TVG.com Haskell Stakes. Two races back in his third career start, Dr Post tried two-turns for the first time in the Unbridled Stakes and won very professionally, earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Stretching out to the distance of the Haskell last month in the Belmont Stakes, Dr Post closed from sixth in the early stages to second but was no match for Tiz the Law. Considering no horse has been a match for Tiz the Law in months, I think that effort is akin to running a winning race. The new career-best 107 figure was significant as well, as it was higher than the 105 and 101 figures Authentic earned in his two most recent starts. While the figures Authentic has earned are on a declining pattern, Dr Post is on an improving pattern and that is why he should win the Haskell.

Ancient Warrior is my longshot play to possibly split the two betting favorites, Authentic and Dr Post, by finishing second, although a huge upset win isn't totally out of the question. Ancient Warrior stretches out to a route for the first time while making his second start after a three month rest. He earned a 92 figure in his prep race and a career-best 100 figure last fall in his first start. Although he has never raced in a stakes, Ancient Warrior has the class in his pedigree to contend here as he is by the sire Constitution, whose first 3-year-olds are on the track this year. Constitution is the sire of three horses which have made their mark in the division at some point since last fall – Independence Hall, Gouverneur Morris and, most importantly, “Road to the Derby” points leader Tiz the Law. Stretching out from six and one-half furlongs to this mile and one-eighth trip while stepping into stakes company for the first time may be a tall order, but considering Jerry Hollendorfer trains Ancient Warrior I have some confidence in the move. Hollendorfer has saddled 13 grade 1 stakes winners to victory in route races over the past five years and he believes the colt has what it takes to run well, I won't argue.

Authentic is trainer Bob Baffert's #1 Kentucky Derby prospect as he is tied for third on the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard with 100 points. Authentic won the first three starts of his career, earning a career-best 113 figure in the Sham Stakes in January before a 105 figure effort in the San Felipe Stakes. Stretching out to the distance of the Haskell for the Santa Anita Derby last month, Authentic was no match for winner Honor A.P. and regressed again in terms of how fast he ran, to a 101 figure. It does appear as the distances are getting longer, Authentic is not running as fast, and that may be due to his breeding. According to STATS Race Lens, although sire Into Mischief has produced many stakes winners, the record of his sons and daughters at distances of nine to 10 furlongs in stakes on dirt is just four-for-58 in the last five years. It must be noted, however, that record includes two very good three year old colts – Audible (who won the Florida Derby) and Owendale (who won the Ohio Derby).

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Fame to Famous (96), Jesus' Team (106), Lebda (91) and Ny Traffic (99).

Win Contenders:
Dr Post
Ancient Warrior
Authentic

TVG.com Haskell Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Monmouth Park
Saturday, July 18 – Post Time 5:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 6 PM E.T.

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Equibase Analysis: Mr. Freeze Poised For Fireworks In Met Mile

The Fourth of July feature on a fantastic day of racing at Belmont Park is the Grade 1, $500,000 Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, otherwise known as the Met Mile. Historically one of the biggest races in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile division, this year's race lives up to that billing with eight horses running the one-turn mile trip.

Leading the field in terms of earnings is Code of Honor, who has earned more than $2.4 million to date, some of that when winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last summer two races after a second place finish (via disqualification of the winner) in the Kentucky Derby. Making his first start as a four year old last month, Code of Honor won the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes and appears set for even better.

The horse with the top earnings in the field is McKinzie, who has amassed a $3.4 million bankroll. McKinzie rallied from next-to-last in the 2019 Metropolitan Handicap and comes into the race off a “ridden out” win in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes. Mr Freeze is another talented horse with $1.4 million in career earnings. Mr Freeze won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes at this one-turn mile trip in February to prove he belongs at this level.

Vekoma won the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in April, 2019 and went into the Kentucky Derby well-regarded but finished 13th. A perfect two-for-two in 2020, Vekoma comes off a win in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap at Belmont last month. Westchester runner-up Endorsed and Carter runner-up Network Effect hope to turn the tables on Code of Honor and Vekoma, respectively.

Hog Creek Hustle won the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes last June on Belmont Stakes day but is winless in seven races since then. Warrior's Charge rounds out the field of eight. He won the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap in February in the same manner he's earned all of his other three wins, leading from start to finish. As such, we know who will be trying to lead these on a merry chase from the start.

Mr Freeze and Vekoma are my two top contenders to win this year's Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, but of the pair I will give Mr Freeze preference. The reason is he's a true dirt miler. Last September, Mr Freeze won the Ack Ack Stakes for a then career-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure and he hasn't really run a bad race since then. Stretching out to two-turns and a mile and one-eighth for the Fayette Stakes in October and the Clark Stakes in November, Mr Freeze finished respectably to the top horse in the handicap division in North America, Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Stephen Foster Stakes last weekend. After another big effort when second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January, Mr Freeze cut back to a one turn mile and won the Gulfstream Park Mile in impressive fashion, duplicating the 115 figure earned in the Ack Ack. Once again Mr Freeze stretched out to nine furlongs for the Oaklawn Handicap when last seen in May, finishing third of 13. Incidentally, the winner of that race (By My Standards) came back to run second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. For this race, Mr Freeze is once again cutting back from a mile and one-eighth to a mile and if his last two efforts at a mile are any indication, he's going to be very tough to beat. On another positive note, jockey Manny Franco rode Mr Freeze just once previously, when victorious in the Gulfstream Park Mile.

Vekoma, although running just twice in 2018, was a top two-year-old as he won the Nashua Stakes in November in only the second start of his career. Similarly, he won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in his second start as a three year old, before disappointing badly when 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Given nearly 11 months to mature after that, Vekoma made a very sharp debut as a four year old in March with a stirring victory in the Sir Shackleton Stakes with a career-best 109 figure. Improving sensationally in his second start of the year, Vekoma put to shame a good field in the Carter Handicap last month at Belmont when drawing off to a seven and one-quarter length win. The 116 figure earned in that race is the second best last race figure in the field, just one point shy of the 117 McKinzie earned last month at the same seven furlong trip. However, what Vekoma has going for him which McKinzie does not is being a four year old, Vekoma is still physically maturing and can improve. A perfect four-for-four in one-turn races in his career and with a perfect two-for-two record at Belmont, Vekoma is another strong contender to win this year's Metropolitan Handicap.

Code of Honor, like Vekoma, was a top three-year-old last year, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March. After third place finishes in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, placed second in the latter race after the disqualification of Maximum Security, Code of Honor proved himself once again when winning the Dwyer Stakes at this one-turn mile trip at Belmont last July. Stretching out to a mile and one-quarter, Code of Honor won the Travers Stakes before a career-best effort and 114 figure when coming up a nose short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then was moved up to first after bumped by the original winner. The long campaign apparently took its toll as he finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic. However, after seven months off, Code of Honor came back strongly to win the Westchester Stakes last month over the track with a 113 figure effort that bears improvement in his second start off that long layoff.

Endorsed led into the stretch in the Westchester but had no answer for Code of Honor in the late stages. The 112 figure was a career-best and he certainly could be a factor once more. McKinzie earned a 117 figure winning the Triple Bend Stakes last month in California and earned back-to-back 121 figures in two-turn races, winning the Whitney Stakes last summer at Saratoga then second in the Awesome Again Stakes. He finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic to end his 2019 campaign. McKinzie, along with Hog Creek Hustle has mostly a deep closing style when he runs into a very hot pace as evidenced by his eighth to second place effort in last year's Metropolitan Handicap. Hog Creek Hustle earned a career best 106 figure when coming up a nose short in the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes last summer but has not come close to running that kind of race since. With only one “early” pace type in this race, Warrior's Charge (with a career-best 104 figure), I think the late charges of both McKinzie and Hog Creek Hustle may be a bit muted. Network Effect earned a career-best 111 figure winning the restricted Big Drama Stakes in May but was no match for Vekoma in the Carter and is another who may be held to a minor award.

Win Contenders:
Mr Freeze
Vekoma
Code of Honor

Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap – Grade 1
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 4 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000
T.V.: NBC 5 – 6 PM E.T.

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Equibase Analysis: Pirate’s Punch Could Lead All The Way In Stephen Foster

The Grade 1, $500,000 Stephen Foster Stakes brings together a field of eight quality horses in the Breeders' Cup Classic division, each hoping to earn an automatic spot into the gate for the November 8 running of the race at Keeneland, just 75 miles down the road from Churchill Downs.

Leading the field in terms of accomplishments is Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Grade 1 Clark Stakes, the fall version of the Stephen Foster. Since the Clark, Tom's d'Etat won the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in his only start of 2020 and although third in last year's Foster he is the one to beat on paper. Owendale is among many who have top stakes credentials, having won the Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs last month after finishing second to Tom's d'Etat in the Clark last fall.

Another strong contender is By My Standards, who has a perfect three-for-three record this year including the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap last month in his most recent race. Silver Dust is no slouch either, having led late in the Blame Stakes last month and coming up a neck short in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic Stakes last summer at this nine furlong distance while winning the Grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes and Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes in between.

Pirate's Punch finished third in the Mineshaft, as well as third in the Grade 3 Super Derby last summer and may have an edge in the pace department as the only horse who likes to lead early in the race. Multiplier won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby in 2017 at the distance of the Stephen Foster and proved he belongs with these when coming up a neck short in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March. Fearless makes his stakes debut off an eye-catching rally from last of 11 to win an allowance race last month at Churchill Downs. Alkhaatam rounds out the field, having won his last two dirt starts, noting however he finished 11th of 12 in last year's Foster.

Although there's no doubt Tom's d'Etat leads the field in terms of having earned field high 116 and 118 Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, Pirate's Punch may have a significant edge in terms of early speed that could help him to post the upset. Winner of four races from 14 starts, Pirate's Punch was most impressive in two of his last four efforts when winning by five and by 11 and one-half lengths, respectively. In both cases, Pirate's Punch established the lead and got very brave to be well in front when the field turned for home, giving no horse a chance to make up any ground. It may also be that Pirate's Punch can take back and sit off the pace as well. This is evidenced by his last effort where he rallied from fifth to get within a neck of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go, before being out finished but only beaten a half-length and a neck for the win.

Getting the two post position in the Foster, as well as the services of Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, I believe the tactic will be to go for the lead from the start, especially since the only horse inside of Pirate's Punch in the gate (Fearless) usually drops back and closes from far back. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind Pirate's Punch has the breeding to win this grade 1 race and to run well at one mile and one-eighth. Using STATS Race Lens to look at the history of other foals of the dam, I note both were exceptional, with combined earnings of $2.1 million. One of those was Girvin, winner of the 2017 Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes. As such, I'll take Pirate's Punch to get the lead from the opening of the gate and never look back in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.

Tom's d'Etat doesn't need much talking up, if any, in terms of being a strong contender to win this race. Winner of 10 races from 16 dirt starts, Tom's d'Etat proved himself last summer at the distance when winning the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga with a career-best 118 figure. Two races later, Tom's d'Etat duplicated the feat with a victory in the Grade 3 Fayette Stakes at the same distance, earning a 116 figure. Winning the Clark Stakes in November at Churchill Downs with a 113 figure led to a four and one-half month layoff. Returning as if he had never been away, Tom's d'Etat earned a 113 figure winning the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Having proven capable of winning off a layoff, there's no problem with the two and one-half months off since his last race and as he's won five or eight races at the distance including three of his last four, there is nothing to knock about this talented horse. Although he rallied from sixth and eighth, respectively, in his last two race, Tom's d'Etat raced closer up in second in the early stages of the Fayette Stakes so it is entirely possible Pirate's Punch will not get the easy early lead I envision and in that case it's very likely Tom's d'Etat will earn his 11th career win in this race.

By My Standards has really blossomed as a four year old, winning in his 2020 debut by six lengths then taking two straight grade stakes. Winner of the Louisiana Derby at the distance of the Foster last March as a three year old, By My Standards had already proven to be one of the top of his class but after a poor 12th place effort in the Kentucky Derby, the colt went on the sidelines. Given time to mature, he did just that with a win around two-turns off a nine month layoff with a 102 figure, then two races later he earned a career-best 106 figure in the Oaklawn Handicap at this mile and one-eighth distance. Showing he's fit as a fiddle with a half-mile workout one week ago that was the 11th best of 113 on the day and with it likely he has improving to do, By My Standards could really put his mark on the division with a win in this race and by doing so, stamp his name as one of the horses to strongly consider this fall in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I could make the case for any of the other five entrants in this race as their best efforts could be good enough to win. These horses, and their best Equibase Speed Figures, are Alkhaatam (105), Fearless (99), Multiplier (109), Owendale (108) and Silver Dust (114).

Win Contenders:
Pirate's Punch
Tom's d'Etat
By My Standards

Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 27 – Post Time 5:47 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $500,000

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