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Equibase Analysis: Ride A Comet Gets Slight Edge In Woodbine Mile

Saturday's 2021 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile brings together a stellar 10 horse field vying for the winner's share of the $1 million in prize money as well as an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Mile.

In terms of the strongest recent form, Olympic Runner deserves mentioning first as he comes into the race off a win in the G2 King Edward Stakes over the same mile trip last month. Town Cruise led from the start in the King Edward and will likely be the pacesetter from the moment the gate opens once again. King Edward third place finisher March to the Arch, who finished second in the Woodbine Mile last year, is also a contender. Avie's Flatter won the G2 Connaught Cup Stakes at the shorter distance of seven furlongs at Woodbine in July then finished a close-up fourth in the King Edward.

Set Piece (GB) is another who is in top form, having won three stakes races on grass in a row before a runner-up effort in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga one day before the King Edward was run at Woodbine. Ride a Comet finished third in the Wise Dan Stakes in June when last seen, that race won by Set Piece (GB), and won the G3 Tropical Turf Stakes in January at a mile on grass. Also deserving of consideration is Raging Bull (FR), a Chad Brown trainee who leads the field in career earnings at $1.5 million and who finished a troubled fourth in the 2019 Woodbine Mile, since winning the G1 Maker's Mark Mile in April.

European imports Duke of Hazzard (FR) and Space Traveller (GB) try their hand here. Duke of Hazzard (FR) has not won a race since August of 2019 when victorious in the G2 Celebration Mile Stakes at Royal Ascot. Space Traveller (GB) shipped across the pond to run in the G1 Mr. D. Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) last month, rallying from last to finish fourth.

Change of Control rounds out the field. She's the only female in the race and her most recent success came in the G3 Intercontinental Stakes in June at seven furlongs on turf.

Very small lines in the sand separate a number of these horses in terms of their probability for success in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile, but I'll start with Ride a Comet as the one I think can get the job done. Winner of five races from 10 career turf starts, Ride a Comet is a perfect two-for-two when running on the Woodbine grass. He's also a perfect two-for-two on the Woodbine main track, which is the all-weather Tapeta surface.

The most recent of Ride A Comet's wins at Woodbine came last November, in the Kennedy Road Stakes, which was his second start following 13 months off and the second of three wins in a row. The win that followed was the best effort of his career, this past January when victorious in the Tropical Turf Stakes at the mile trip of the Woodbine Mile. That effort earned a career-best 117 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which is on par with the 117 figure earned by 2020 Woodbine Mile winner Starship Jubilee and the 116 figure earned by 2019 winner El Tormenta. Earlier this year, Ride a Comet finished second behind Raging Bull (FR) in the Maker's Mark Mile in a very strong field of nine and after going seven paths wide into the stretch.

Most recently, Ride a Comet finished third in the Wise Dan Stakes, won by Set Piece (GB), who returned to finish strongly for second in the Fourstardave Handicap last month. Better still, the Wise Dan turned out to be a very productive “KEY” race from which the runner-up finished second in the Mint Million Stakes last month the fourth place finisher won the Baltimore/Washington International, the fifth and sixth place finishers returned to run second in stakes and the eighth place horse came back to win a stakes race on the grass. As such, all signs point to Ride a Comet improving markedly out of the Wise Dan and if he repeats his Tropical Turf Stakes effort he can post the upset win in this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

Set Piece (GB) has run five “A” races in a row consisting of three winning efforts and two runner-up finishes. The best of those in terms of finish came when winning the Wise Dan in June, but the best in terms of how fast he ran was when earning a 116 ™ Figure winning the Opening Verse Stakes in April at this one mile turf trip, the first of three straight stakes wins before a big second place effort rallying from last of eight in the Fourstardave Handicap last month behind the incomparable mare Got Stormy, who finished second (beaten just a half-length) in the 2019 Woodbine Mile.

One of the key elements which suggest Set Piece (GB), as well as Ride a Comet, can repeat their best recent efforts in this race is the fact that both have run their last five races without Lasix, which they will not be using in this event whereas four of the other top contenders will be racing without Lasix after running with it in their recent efforts in similar races. Set Piece (GB) has won nine of 17 races in his career including four of five on turf and gets the services of Joel Rosario, who comes off a strong performance at the tough Kentucky Downs meeting, winning seven of 30 starts and in many of those races showing tremendous riding skills skimming the rail to victory.

Space Traveller (GB) is an “X Factor” and likely to be a long shot in this race. He's won five of 20 races in his career, all on turf, including two at this mile trip. His biggest win came in the G2 Boomerang Solonaway Stakes two years ago this week, earning a 111 figure in the process at this distance and on a left handed course like the one at Woodbine. Since then, Space Traveller (GB) has won only one of seven, but two of those were notable. The first of the two came this past June when winning the Sky Bet Ganton Stakes in Great Britain after trailing early and at one mile on a left handed course. The second came just last month when rallying from last of eight to get fourth in the Mr. D. Stakes at a mile and one-quarter, which he had never run previously.

I believe that race was a prep for the Woodbine Mile and the cut back in distance will serve Space Traveller (GB) very well by providing him with a lot of late energy at this shorter trip. Perhaps most notable was the fact in the Mr. D., Space Traveller (GB) was pinched back at the start and did not appreciate that so was rank (upset) for the first part of the race. After relaxing, when asked to run he had no room then when finding room late and allowed to stretch his legs, Space Traveller (GB) did just that but it was too late. Jockey Daniel Tudhope comes back from Europe to ride the horse once again and rode him to four of his five career wins, suggesting Space Traveller (GB) can run a lot better than his high odds suggest he will.

Olympic Runner and Raging Bull (FR) also deserve mention. Olympic Runner has won just one of seven career starts on the Woodbine turf course but his most recent was his best yet as it came in the very similar King Edward Stakes last month, earning a 111 figure in the process. Olympic Runner missed by a neck in the Canadian Turf Stakes this past February with a 113 figure and without Lasix but his two most recent efforts, including a neck defeat behind Avie's Flatter in the Connaught Cup Stakes, were with Lasix.

Raging Bull (FR) likely would have finished much better than fourth in the 2019 Woodbine Mile if not for significant traffic trouble. He was moved up to third via disqualification of the original third place finisher and earned a 114 figure. This year Raging Bull (FR) won the similar Maker's Mark Mile in April before missing by a head in the Poker Stakes then a more lackluster effort when sixth as the even money favorite in the Fourstardave. With world-class jockey Frankie Dettori riding, Raging Bull (FR) might have a say in the outcome of this year's Ricoh Woodbine Mile.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Avie's Flatter (113), Change of Control (102), Duke of Hazzard (FR) (114), March to the Arch (115) and Town Cruise (109).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Ride a Comet
Set Piece (GB)
Space Traveller (GB)

Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Grade 1
Race 10 at Woodbine
Saturday, Sept. 18 – Post Time 6:12 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Tide Of The Sea Could Lead A Merry Chase In Calumet Turf Cup

The Grade 2, $1 million Calumet Turf Cup Stakes this Saturday at Kentucky Downs drew a full field of 12, plus four also-eligibles, all vying to win an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf in November.

Arklow, who won the race in 2018 and 2020, is back, as is 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha. Channel Cat won the 2018 Dueling Grounds Derby on the course and has not run over it since but won the Grade 1 Man O'War Stakes in May. Arklow won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes in May at this marathon 12 furlong trip but has not threatened in two similar races since then. Similarly, Zulu Alpha, who finished third behind Arklow last year, has run poorly in both starts in 2021.

Imperador most recently finished second in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes at the distance of one mile and three-eighths but has never finished in the top three in two races at this distance. Bluegrass Parkway is one of five horses in the Turf Cup trained by Mike Maker (plus one of the four also-eligibles) and just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at the distance of one mile and one-quarter but has never run this far. Then there's Tide of the Sea, another of the Maker trainees, who won the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes in January and who could be the one in front from the start.

Fantasioso could be a factor in the Turf Cup as he finished second this past June in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup at the distance of two miles on turf. Similarly, Ajourneytofreedom (another trained by Maker) missed by a neck in the Grade 3 John B. Connally Stakes at the distance in January and is another who, if able to repeat his best effort in a stakes race similar to this one, could have a say in the outcome. Breakpoint won the Group 1 El Ensayo Stakes in his Chilean homeland last December. That race carried a $150,000 purse and is one of the biggest in South American racing so he could fit as a contender in this field.

Crossfirehurricane, Epic Bromance and Glynn County round out the main body of the field, while Artemus Eagle, Big Dreaming, Dynadrive and Time for Trouble are the also-eligibles who can run if any of the horses in the main body of the race withdraw.

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Main contenders:

Tide of the Sea moved from the barn of Bill Mott to Mike Maker's care between his starts in August, 2019 and June, 2020. Since then he has won three times and finished second four other times in 11 races. The best of those in terms of his ™ Equibase® Speed Figures was last October at Keeneland when, at the distance of the Turf Cup, Tide of the Sea led from start to finish to earn a 107 figure. Two races later Tide of the Sea won the William L. McKnight Stakes in January at the 12 furlong distance of this race, then three races later he led from the start and settled for second in the Grand Couturier Stakes on turf the Turf Cup distance.

The key to the most successful finishes for Tide of the Sea came when he was sent to the lead from the start, resulting in all three of his wins in the last year. Jockey Luis Saez, fresh off winning the Saratoga 2021 riding title, has ridden Tide of the Sea just once previously, in the Grand Couturier, when Saez was aggressive from the opening of the gate and a race in which although Tide of the Sea was passed late, he was beaten by Gufo, who went on to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes four weeks later. In this year's Turf Cup, I expect Saez to be equally aggressive from the start, and with no other true “need the lead” type in the field, Tide of the Sea can post the mild upset to win this race.

Ajourneytofreedom and Glynn County both appear capable of winning if Tide of the Sea can't go all the way in front. They're both also trained by Mike Maker, with Glynn County owned by Three Diamonds Farm, who owns Tide of the Sea. The most recent race in which Ajourneytofreedom tried this marathon turf trip was in mid-July at Saratoga when, after relaxing in sixth (of seven) for the first mile and one-quarter, Ajourneytofreedom moved decisively from fifth, then to fourth, then to the lead, eventually winning by a neck. That effort earned a 111 ™ figure not far from his best, a 113 figure earned when missing by a neck in the similar John B. Connally Stakes in January. With the second leading jockey in all of North America, Irad Ortiz, Jr., getting aboard Ajourneytofreedom for the first time, if the horse can stay close to Tide of the Sea and Channel Cat in the early stages, he could repeat either of those efforts in representative races to win.

Glynn County also recently won at this mile and one-half turf trip, in June, with a similar effort to the one Ajourneytofreedom put forth in July. In that race, Glynn County sat in fourth in the early stages then rallied to win by a couple of lengths with a quick burst of speed. That effort only earned a 103 ™ figure which was exceeded two races later when the colt earned a career best 109 figure finishing third in the Mr. D Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) at the shorter distance of a mile and one quarter. Back to the longer trip, Glynn County could be the one passing stablemate Tide of the Sea for the score.

Secondary contenders:

Dynadrive will need help from one or more horses withdrawing from the 12 horse main body of the field to run in the Turf Cup as he is on the also-eligible list, but he must be given some consideration if he does run. First or second in 11 of 17 races, Dynadrive joined the Maker barn last October via a $50,000 claim. His best efforts came in his last two starts when second then first, the latter of the two earning a 104 figure which can be improved upon as Jose Ortiz rides back following being in the saddle for the very first time. Although the win in August in his most recent race came at the distance of a mile and one quarter, Dynadrive is bred to handle this mile and one-half trip and is another who can lay close to the likely slow early pace and be in the picture at the wire.

Bluegrass Parkway just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at Ellis Park, the same race Arklow used as a prep to win the Turf Cup in 2018. The effort earned Bluegrass Parkway a career best 105 figure and considering it was only the horse's fourth start since joining the powerful Maker barn and considering jockey Julien Leparoux rides him right back there's a chance he can run much better than his high odds will suggest is possible.

As to the three horses which may be favored by bettors, I feel they have less chance to win then their odds make it appear and for the most part I am going to take a stand against them winning. Arklow, who won this race in 2018 as a four year old and last year as a six year old (with a 116 figure), does not appear to be entering this year's Turf Cup in the same form, having finished sixth in the United Nations Stakes in July and seventh last month in the Del Mar Handicap. 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha is now an eight year old, is winless since July of 2020 and has finished third, fifth and seventh in his three starts since then. However, it must be noted that the best of the three was in last year's Turf Cup where Zulu Alpha finished third with a 114 figure. Channel Cat, who won the Dueling Grounds Derby (one mile and five-sixteenths) as a three year old in 2018, has a bit more chance to win as compared to Arklow and Zulu Alpha as he won the Man O'War Stakes in May with a 113 figure. However, not only has he run poorly in two races since the Man O'War when finishing seventh and fourth, Channel Cat may not be as good as this mile and one-half distance as he is a one mile and three-eighths, with his record at this trip just 1-1-1 in seven starts.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Breakpoint (CHI) (109), Crossfirehurricane (106), Epic Bromance (100), Fantasioso (ARG) (115) and Imperador (ARG) (114), plus also-eligibles Artemus Eagle (101), Big Dreaming (106) and Time for Trouble (103)

Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Tide of the Sea
Ajourneytofreedom
Glynn County
Dynadrive

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Kentucky Downs
Saturday, Sept. 11 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Half on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Masqueparade Poised To Upset Travers

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Runhappy Travers Stakes brings together a seven horse group of 3-year-olds vying for top honors in one of the most prestigious races of the summer. Oddly enough, three of the seven didn't run in the Kentucky Derby three months ago and the other four managed finish positions of fourth, sixth, seventh and 18th. Still, the combined earnings of the seven runners is over $6 million, led by Essential Quality, winner of the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in his last two races.

Jim Dandy runner-up Keepmeinmind is winless in six races since taking the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Masqueparade finished third in the Jim Dandy after winning the Grade 3 Ohio Derby and may be the lone front runner in the field. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January to get on the radar among top 3-year-olds but is winless in five races since then although it must be noted he was in position to win the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational Stakes last month before clipping another horse's heels and losing his jockey.

The recent one-two finishers of the non-graded Curlin Stakes – Dynamic One and Miles D, respectively, hope to improve and be competitive at this level, while King Fury hopes to rebound to the form shown when rallying from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby before a non-threating 10th place effort on turf in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes earlier this month.

Masqueparade could have an edge in this seven horse field as a lone front runner due to the fact none of the others have truly shown a desire to lead early in a race. Starting with his runner-up effort at a mile and one-sixteenth in March, a race he might have won if not bumped by the original winner before being place first when that one was disqualified, Masqueparade has been in front or very close the lead from shortly after the start in four straight races. When winning one of those races on May 1, Masqueparade earned a stellar 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which just one point shy of the 109 figures Essential Quality has earned in three of his last four races.

Considering Essential Quality will go to post as the prohibitive betting favorite, Masqueparade offers much better value for any bets we make involving this race because he has as much of a chance to win as Essential Quality if both repeat their best recent efforts. Although Masqueparade was no match for Essential Quality last month in the Jim Dandy Stakes when third, there was a different early pace scenario that day as another horse led and Masqueparade stalked that pacesetter before making the lead with a quarter mile to go before being passed by Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind. In this situation it could be Masqueparade who dictates the early tempo and as such he has a shot to relax on the lead and get very brave to post the upset win.

Essential Quality has now won seven of eight career starts for a bankroll of $3.5 million. His only poor effort came at the distance of the Travers when he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but jockey Luis Saez hasn't made the same mistake of getting Essential Quality hung wide throughout the race, resulting in two strong wins in a row. The first of the two came in the Belmont Stakes with a 109 ™ figure, followed by a similarly strong effort in the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga one month ago in which the colt earned a 107 figure. As such, if Masqueparade can't lead from start to finish the horse most likely to pass late to win the Travers is Essential Quality.

King Fury and Keepmeinmind both have slight chances to win and big chances to finish second or third to complete any exacta or trifecta tickets played. King Fury came up slightly ill right before the Derby and had to skip the race, then closed very well from last of nine to get second behind Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby, earning a career-best 105 figure in the process. Not finding a race to run in after that in order to prep for the Travers, King Fury was entered in the Saratoga Derby Invitational three weeks ago on turf, a surface he had never run over previously. Finishing 10th of 11 in that race, the only thing that proved was he is much more well suited to dirt and so on the return to dirt and based on his effort in the Ohio Derby, King Fury could be a factor in the Travers.

Similarly, Keepmeinmind missed by a half-length to Masqueparade in the Ohio Derby in June then by a similar margin to Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy, earning 105 then 106 figure not far enough afield from the likely favorite to discount Keepmeinmind's chances completely. Particularly the Travers being his second start of the Saratoga meeting, Keepmeinmind running as well or better as he did one month ago shouldn't surprise anyone.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Dynamic One (103), Midnight Bourbon (99) and Miles D (100).

Win Contenders:
Masqueparade
Essential Quality

Runhappy Travers Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 28 – Post Time 6:12 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1.25 Million

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Equibase Analysis: Dr Post Poised To Upset Pacific Classic

Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar, a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, drew a field of nine this year. It's a strong group consisting of three recent graded stakes winners and another four who were in-the-money in their most recent races.

Leading the field in career earnings, with $700K banked, is the lightly raced 4-year-old Dr Post, who ships in from Todd Pletcher's summer base at Saratoga off a strong win in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup Stakes last month. Next in career success and earnings is Express Train, who has earned $659K, much of it when victorious last month in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap.

Tripoli was a half-length back in that race in his first ever stakes try and must be respected as a contender. Royal Ship was another three-quarters of a length back in the San Diego and two races prior to that won the Grade 2 Californian Stakes to prove he belongs at this level.

Tizamagician and Cupid's Claws finished first and second, respectively, in the mile and one-half Grade 2 Cougar II Stakes last month and both will attempt to run as well or better shortening up by a quarter mile. Independence Hall was a top three year old early last year when winning the Jerome Stakes on New Year's Day but has only won once in seven races since and was soundly defeated in the Californian when last seen four months ago.

Sheriff Brown, a former claiming level horse, has won six of 21 races lifetime and three of his last five but finished a far back in fifth and seventh in his two recent graded stakes races. Magic On Tap rounds out the field. Winner of the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes at seven furlongs in May, Magic On Tap enters the Pacific Classic off a non-threatening fifth-place effort in the San Diego Handicap last month.

Most of the nine entrants in this year's Pacific Classic have been taking turns beating each other:

Express Train beat Tripoli and Royal Ship in the San Diego Handicap last month but Royal Ship finished in front of Express Train seven weeks earlier when second in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Express Train beat Tizamagician in the San Pasqual Stakes this past January, then one day after the San Diego Handicap, Tizamagician beat Cupid's Claws in the Cougar II Stakes. However, Cupid's Claws had beaten Tizamagician when winning the Tokyo City Stakes last summer. When winning the Californian Stakes in April, Royal Ship beat Independence Hall ,and Express Train finished in front of Independence Hall when second in the Malibu Stakes last December. Sheriff Brown was far back in the San Diego, as was Magic On Tap, who also we well beaten by Royal Ship in the Californian.

With all that turn-taking to consider, the race is ready to be won by a new face. That new face is Dr Post, with a career-best and field high last race 108 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. That figure is likely to be improved upon as this will be Dr Post's second start since adding blinkers as well as his second with Joel Rosario in the saddle. Dr Post made his third start following an eight month layoff in the Monmouth Cup Stakes last month, run on the same day as the San Diego and won more easily than the one and one-quarter length margin of victory makes it appear as he was “ridden out” in the final stages. Given that his first two races this year were at the distance of a mile around one turn, the stretch out to a mile and one-eighth around two turns in the Monmouth Cup sets the stage for an even better effort in the Pacific Classic.

Express Train is the next most probable winner of this year's Pacific Classic, but unlike Dr Post (who has never run this mile and one-quarter trip), Express Train is winless in two tries at the distance. His best effort of the two tries came when beaten a half-length in the Santa Anita Handicap in March, in which he led by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and was caught near the wire. It's just unclear whether he can run his best at this distance, but coming off a big win in the San Diego Handicap last month with a 107 ™ figure, and having run so well in the Santa Anita Handicap, Express Train has every right to win this race, particularly as he may have the early lead all to himself from the start.

There's no doubt Royal Ship, Tripoli, Tizamagician and Cupid's Claws have some chance to win, but each as one negative factor in my opinion which makes that must more improbable than the top two win contenders. Royal Ship earned a 113 ™ figure winning the Californian in April and finished in front of Express Train by a head in the Gold Cup (111 figure) but disappointed badly in the San Diego when a non-threatening third as the betting favorite with no excuse. Tripoli earned a 109 ™ figure one before last in an allowance race and nearly duplicated the effort when second to Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but his six pound difference is not in effect here as they are at even weight and there's no indication he wants to run this far, having never run farther than one mile and one-sixteenth on dirt. Tizamagician (career-best 106 winning figure) and Cupid's Claws (career-best 100 figure) both sport graded stakes wins at a mile and one-half, but that doesn't mean they can run this well at the classic distance of one mile and one-quarter.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Independence Hall (110), Magic On Tap (106) and Sheriff Brown (104).

Win Contenders:
Dr Post
Express Train

TVG Pacific Classic Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, August 21 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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