Improbable Takes Whitney After Stumbling Start By Favored Tom’s D’Etat

Improbable notched his second consecutive Grade 1 on Saturday, taking advantage of a bad stumble at the start by favorite Tom's d'Etat to win the $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the 4-year-old City Zip colt sat off pacesetter Mr. Buff, took took command into the stretch and won easily by about two lengths over By My Standards. After his bad start, Tom's d'Etat rallied to be third, with Code of Honor and Mr. Buff rounding out the field of five.

Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, covered 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.65 and paid $8.50 for the win — his sixth in 13 career starts. A G1 winner at two of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2019, concluding his year with a fifth-place finish behind Spun to Run in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

He came back in 2020 with a close second behind Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile and then returned to Southern California to win the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.

Plagued by gate problems throughout his career, Improbable was fractious while waiting for the gates to open but broke smoothly. Tom's d'Etat, however, went to his knees at the start under Joel Rosario and was several lengths behind the field by the time he recovered.

Mr. Buff led the way through slow fractions of :25.12, :49.74 and 1:13.36, with Improbable his closest pursuer in the run down the backstretch. Tom's d'Etat trailed.

Approaching the far turn, Ortiz asked Improbable for run, and the colt responded. He led into the stretch, the mile in 1:36.53 and was geared down in the final yards.

Produced from the A.P. Indy mare, Rare Event, Improbable was bred in Kentucky by St George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr.

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Improbable Provides Baffert With Back-to-Back Whitneys

‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) scored back-to-back Grade I victories and provided his conditioner Bob Baffert with his second straight renewal of Saratoga’s prestigious GI Whitney S. Saturday with a dominant score in this ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Heavily Favored Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) missed the break and was relegated to last early as native New Yorker Mr Buff (Friend or Foe) took command, loping through early splits of :25.12 and :49.74 with 3-1 shot Improbable keeping close tabs from second. Improbable seized command from Mr Buff as three-quarters went in 1:13.36 with MGSW By My Standards (Goldencents) charging up behind him. Improbable charged clear at the top of the lane and it was all over from there as the flashy chestnut rolled home to a two-length victory. By My Standards held on for second over Tom’s d’Etat. Last term’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) could only manage fourth over a tiring Mr Buff.

“He got up really quick and he put me in the race,” said winning pilot Irad Ortiz. “I just took a little hold because Mr Buff looked like the speed of the race. I put him in second in the clear, like we wanted and went from there. He was comfortable. By the backside, we felt pressure but by his own he started picking it up. I let him do his thing because they were going really slow so I let him go early. When I asked him turning for home, he responded really well.

“Big race. Big race,” said co-owner WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden. “Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob [Baffert] had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good. Then they throw up kind of easy fractions. But, he’s just a different horse this year. That’s his second Grade I in a row. He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

As for the beaten favorite, Tom d’Etat, jockey Joel Rosario said, “He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on. He was standing fine, he just missed the break. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn’t take my time. I thought the pace was fine. Even after that, I was not too far from the lead. It looked like I was in a good spot. But stumbling coming out of the gate, I lost ground right away.”

A perfect three-for-three as a juvenile, including his first top level success in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable faced his first defeat when second in last term’s GII Rebel S. and filled the same spot behind Omaha Beach (War Front) in the GI Arkansas Derby last term. Fifth, but promoted to fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, the $200,000 KEESEP buy finished sixth in last year’s GI Preakness S., after which he was given a brief freshening. Making a successful comeback in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar, he was fourth in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and could only manage fifth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 2. Coming up just 3/4 of a length short of Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Improbable flashed signs of his impressive juvenile form when running off to a 3 1/4-length success in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. going 10 panels in Arcadia June 6.

Pedigree Notes:

Improbable is one of 10 Grade I winners, 30 graded winners and 87 stakes winners for his late sire City Zip. He is also one of 26 top-level scorers, 103 graded victors and 221 stakes winners produced by a daughter of A.P. Indy. Improbable is the first foal to race out of Rare Event, whose -year-old filly Redemption Day (Quality Road), a $180,000 KEESEP purchase by WinStar, broke her maiden July 9 and finished second last time July 30. The 11-year-old mare is also the dam of juvenile colt Snake Doctor

Saturday, Saratoga Racecourse
WHITNEY S.-GI, $695,000, Saratoga, 8-1, 4yo/up, 1 1/8m, 1:48.65, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 124, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
‘TDN Rising Star’ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC; B-St.
George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $400,000. Lifetime Record: 13-6-3-0,
$1,529,520. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk
   Nick Rating: A.
2–By My Standards, 122, c, 4, Goldencents–A Jealous Woman,
by Muqtarib. ($150,000 2yo ’18 OBSAPR). O-Allied Racing
Stable, LLC; B-Don Ladd (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $140,000.
3–Tom’s d’Etat, 124, h, 7, Smart Strike–Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s
Causeway. ($330,000 Ylg ’14 KEESEP). O-G M B Racing; B-SF
Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Albert M. Stall, Jr. $75,000.
Margins: 2, HF, 2HF. Odds: 3.25, 5.60, 1.00.
Also Ran: Code of Honor, Mr. Buff. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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‘Huge Heart’: 8-Year-Old American Sailor Better Than Ever, Takes Aim On Troy Stakes

Firm in his belief that Raj Jagnanan's stakes winner American Sailor is better than ever at the age of 8, trainer Wayne Potts is taking aim at a big target.

Based with Potts at Laurel Park, where he opened his season in impressive fashion last month, American Sailor is being pointed to a return to graded-stakes competition in the $200,000 Troy (G3) Aug. 8 on the Saratoga turf.

The 5 ½-furlong Troy would be the third time facing graded company for American Sailor and the first since running 10th in the 2016 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3) at Churchill Downs for previous trainer Joe Sharp.

“He has a huge heart, a huge heart. He just does everything you ask him to do,” Potts said. “When he hits the racetrack, he's all business.”

American Sailor, a gelded son of City Zip, won a turf sprint stakes at Sam Houston in 2016 and ran second in subsequent editions to begin his 2017, 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The connections skipped the trip this past winter and wound up not getting started until June 8, in part due to the coronavirus pandemic that paused live racing in Maryland for 2 ½ months until May 30.

“I think we did the right thing by finally letting him go out and drop his head and be a horse. We gave him the winter off and he came back, and I think he's better now than when I previously had him, knock on wood, that's for sure,” Potts said. “We're very pleased with him.”

The speedy American Sailor earned his 14th career victory in the third-level optional claiming allowance at Laurel, opening up by as many as five lengths after a half-mile to win by a length in 1:03.53 for 5 ½ furlongs. He followed up with a determined runner-up effort after setting the pace in the Wolf Hill Stakes July 18 at Monmouth, finishing between Archidust and Shekky Shebaz – both turf stakes winners at Saratoga.

“It was a very solid field. We were thrilled. It was a super effort, and he gave it everything he had,” Potts said. “He came out of the race very good so I nominated him to the Troy. We're going to look at the race at Saratoga, and I nominated him to the Da Hoss [Aug. 15] at Colonial [Downs] as a backup plan.”

American Sailor, seventh in last year's Da Hoss, is among 17 nominees to the Troy. He was claimed by Potts for $25,000 out of a Sept. 3, 2017 win at Suffolk Downs and ran nine times with two wins and a second in the stakes at Sam Houston before being lost for a $7,500 tag in June 2018.

Jagnanan purchased American Sailor privately after he made one start for owner-trainer David Nunn, and has a record of 4-3-1 with nearly $300,000 in purse earnings from 12 races since being reunited with Potts.

Potts made two starts at Saratoga last summer, both with the gelding Dazzling Okie, finishing third in a mid-July claimer.

“I've never won a race at Saratoga, so it would be a steppingstone in the right direction,” Potts said. “We might get a short field there, who knows. We have to see how it all plays out, but as long as he stays like he is right now, I plan on being there.”

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City Boy Tries To Stretch His Speed To Seven Panels In Connaught Cup

City Boy, who pulled off a 24-1 upset in last year's Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes, faces seven rivals on the E.P. Taylor Turf Course in Saturday's Grade 2 $175,000 Connaught Cup Stakes, at Woodbine.

Trained by 2020 Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Fame inductee Mike Keogh, the six-year-old gelding, bred and co-owned (with Donald Howard) by the late Gus Schickedanz, brings a record of 3-6-2 from 17 starts into the seven-furlong Connaught Cup.

“He had a fairly good winter,” said Keogh, who had City Boy and others in his barn with him in Aiken, South Carolina. “We had a lot of rain in February, so there were a lot of sealed racetracks. I didn't really get to do much with any of my horses in February. Then we had to get out of there in the third week of March, so we didn't get too much done this winter, to be honest.”

A son of multiple graded stakes winner City Zip, City Boy debuted on April 21, 2017, finishing second in a five-furlong main track race at Woodbine.

The Ontario-bred broke his maiden next time out, one month later, in a 6 1/2-furlong turf race at the Toronto oval, drawing clear in the stretch to win by a length as the 9-5 favourite.

His next win came that August, a head score at six furlongs on the Woodbine turf.

Just over two years later, City Boy delivered his connections with his biggest win to date, another gutsy head victory, this time in last October's six-furlong, $280,900 Nearctic.

It was the second Nearctic triumph for Keogh, who took the 1999 renewal with Clever Response.

“No, I wasn't,” said Keogh when asked if he was caught off-guard by City Boy's performance. “We had run him two weeks previous – it was a really fast time – and he wasn't beaten that far. He was hung wide the whole way. Jesse [jockey, Campbell] got off him and said, 'This horse, he needs two races back-to-back.' I told him that I had nominated him to the Nearctic on the off chance it came up as an easier field. As it turned out, there weren't many shippers and he ran huge.”

City Boy arrives at the Connaught Cup off a sixth-place effort in a six-furlong main track race last November at Woodbine.

Saturday's stake marks the first time he'll test seven panels.

“He's doing great,” said Keogh, who campaigned Schickedanz's Wando to Canadian Triple Crown glory in 2003. “The Connaught is an unknown because he's never been seven-eighths before. We're going to give this a go. He needs to run. You can't keep working him… he goes crazy. The first start of the year, they're always that bit more on the bridle. But he needs a start. That's why we're running him.”

City Boy reminds Keogh of a Canadian horse racing legend, a standout on and off the racetrack.

“I'll tell you who he reminds me of. When I first came to Canada after [fellow Hall of Fame inductee and trainer] Jerry Meyer had brought me over from England, he was training Bold Ruckus, who was a two-year-old at that time. City Boy reminds me of Bold Ruckus, and I used to gallop him back in those days. And he's out of a Bold Ruckus mare [Princess Ruckus]. He's a horse that tries very hard. He's a lovely horse and one of my favourites.”

El Tormenta, who went on to take the 2019 Ricoh Woodbine Mile, won last year's Connaught Cup in a time of 1:20.29. Jockey Robin Platts has won a record eight editions of the race, including back-to-back runnings (1968-69) with James Bay.

The Connaught Cup is Race 7 on Saturday's 10-race card. First post time is 1 p.m. Fans can watch and wager on all the action via HPIbet.com.

FIELD FOR THE $175,000 CONNAUGHT CUP

POST – HORSE – JOCKEY – TRAINER

1 – Silent Poet – Justin Stein – Nicholas Gonzalez

2 – White Flag – Luis Contreras – Christophe Clement

3 – Blind Ambition – Patrick Husbands – Mark Casse

4 – Admiralty Pier – Jerome Lermyte – Barbara Minshall

5 – Regally Irish – Steven Bahen – Graham Motion

6 – City Boy – Davy Moran – Mike Keogh

7 – Olympic Runner – Kazushi Kimura – Mark Casse

8 – Gray's Fable – Rafael Hernandez – Roger Attfield

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