The Week in Review: In Wake of Triple Crown Purse Increases Sophomore Horsepower Missing in Action

Within the past three months, the purses for all three Triple Crown races have been raised. Paradoxically, this increase in prize money has coincided with a 2024 prep race season that is uncharacteristically light on emphatic, leap-off-the-page contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.

The first weekend in March has traditionally served as a launch pad for sophomores who figure to excel in the spring Classics and beyond. Of all the prep stakes currently carded at 1 1/16 miles, the two that have historically been the most prolific producers of Derby winners have been the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park (with 14 starters going on to win the Run for the Roses) and the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Park (with 13).

This year, neither race figures to be a reliable measuring stick for calibrating the division's true horsepower.

The 1-5 favorite Dornoch (Good Magic) wired four overmatched foes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. But it will be difficult to discern where the full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage stands in the pecking order off that effort considering four other rivals scratched out of the race, including the three ranked closest to Dornoch on the morning line.

Out in California, the San Felipe S. lured just five entrants. Three were from Bob Baffert's barn–meaning they are ineligible to compete in the Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate banishment of the Hall-of-Fame trainer. Then the day before the race, Baffert scratched the undefeated Nysos (Nyquist). The colt's defection not only drained the San Felipe of its star, but it meant that only two starters out of that stakes would be able to earn Derby qualifying points (the San Felipe's 6:02 p.m. Eastern post time Sunday was too late to include analysis for this column).

Using the most recent version of TDN's Sophomore Top 12 as a guide, it is difficult to zero in on any must-use betting interests for the 150th Derby based on what we have seen so far in the '24 prep season.

You can skim the Nos. 1, 2 and 7 contenders straight off that list for Derby consideration. 'Rising Stars' Nysos, Muth (Good Magic), and Maymun (Frosted) are all Baffert trainees who won't be Louisville-bound because of the Churchill ban.

Seeing these top California-based colts perform in other stakes has also become elusive. Over the last two weekends, Baffert has scratched Nysos from the San Felipe S. because of a sudden desire to give that 1-5 morning-line favorite more time off between starts, and he opted not to enter Muth in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. (where he would have been the heavy favorite), when he didn't like how the colt's final workout for that race turned out. Both colts are reportedly fine physically; they are now tentatively expected to contest the GI Santa Anita Derby and GI Arkansas Derby, respectively.

The Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 9 contenders on the Sophomore Top 12 all share the dubious distinction of failing to advance in terms of Beyer Speed Figures from age two to three–even though three of those four won their first sophomore starts.

No. 3-rated 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner)'s Beyer pattern declined from 91 to 90 when that colt won the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

No. 5-ranked juvenile champ Fierceness, a 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light, saw his Beyer dip from 105 to 84 after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, then running a no-impact third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February.

No. 6-slotted Dornoch (Good Magic)'s winning 88 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth S. represented a three-point haircut off a 91 earned in his GII Remsen S. score.

The No. 9-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake (Into Mischief) captured the Rebel S., inheriting 4-5 favoritism when Muth wasn't entered. But his 93 Beyer from that win equates to a three-race plateau at that figure without any numerical advancement over a five-month span.

Conquest Warrior, another 'TDN Rising Star,' was pegged at No. 8 in the most recent Sophomore Top 12. He uncorked a five-length smackdown score at 1-5 odds in a Gulfstream nine-furlong allowance on Friday against five rivals. But this son of City of Light remains untested against stakes company and will attempt to garner his first Derby qualifying points after replicating, not bettering, an 84 Beyer from his Jan. 13 maiden win.

The two Todd Pletcher-trained horses holding down the Nos. 10 and 12 spots on TDN's Top 12, Locked (Gun Runner) and Speak Easy (Constitution), were both unexpected defections from the Fountain of Youth S.

Pletcher scratched 'TDN Rising Star' Locked Saturday after not liking the way the colt had moved in a morning gallop. Locked, who won the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland and ran third as the beaten favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, has now missed consecutive starts after a fever kept him out of the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Feb. 6. He remains unraced in 2024.

Speak Easy, a 100-Beyer winner in his Jan. 27 debut, was challenging Dornoch for favoritism in the Fountain of Youth S. when he unseated his jockey in pre-race warm-ups and reportedly ran into the rail and sustained a superficial cut, necessitating a scratch.

The plethora of recent, high-profile no-shows against the backdrop of Derby contenders being lightly raced to begin with underscores the missing-in-action vibe that is attaching itself to this year's sophomore crop.

With that in mind, maybe it's time to start looking for horses of interest in prep stakes that don't traditionally yield Derby contenders. Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct and the ungraded John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway both produced winners who, at the very least, seem to have forward momentum going for them.

Deterministic (Liam's Map) is now 2-for-2 after splashing home first in the Gotham S. He stalked and pounced from mid-pack, splitting rivals in the stretch to register a 93-Beyer victory coming off a nearly seven-month layoff for trainer Christophe Clement. The colt will ship back to Payson Park, where he's been training this winter, while his connections mull a next start.

Encino (Nyquist) improved his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway, with his only loss being a neck defeat when second in his debut for trainer Brad Cox. He overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite getting hooked four wide on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After shifting outward and regaining his stalled momentum, Encino scored by a measured length, earning an 89 Beyer. Next-race plans have yet to be formulated.

Despite a history that dates to 1953, only one Gotham S. starter has ever won the Derby–the mighty Secretariat, who won both those stakes in 1973.

The Battaglia S., which dates to 1982 but has only been a points-awarding Derby prep since 2021, has also yielded exactly one Derby winner from its roster of starters–the 80-1 shocker Rich Strike in 2022, who ran fourth in that year's Battaglia.

You can't get much farther apart on the spectrum of Derby winners than Secretariat and Rich Strike.

But then again, this is a Triple Crown prep campaign that is shaping up to be a ripe, open season for Derby dreamers, so don't dismiss the winners of the Gotham and Battaglia based solely on their unconventional prep-race paths.

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‘Shamrocks in the Bluegrass’: John Ennis Enjoying the Ride

Opening an occasional series focused on Irish expatriates in Kentucky, TDN meets a son of Co. Meath testing the GI Kentucky Derby water with his impressive Leonatus S. winner.

As migrations go, one is rather less surprising than the other. On the one hand, over the past two years the synthetic circuit at Turfway has consecutively delivered the winner and runner-up in the definitive test of a dirt Thoroughbred. On the other, the trainer hoping to produce another GI Kentucky Derby horse from the same unlikely platform is only the latest in a perennial line of Irish expatriates to have successfully adapted their skills to a new environment in the Bluegrass.

Most of the compatriots to be featured in this series will do so through their endeavors on horse farms, rather than on the racetrack. But almost of all of them have a similar story to John Ennis, in having crossed the water with little more than a willingness to work for chances in “the land of opportunity” that might never have been found in their homeland.

“No chance,” replies Ennis, asked whether he could have achieved similar things back home. “Absolutely zero. You'd have to go back there with $1 million and probably still fail. That's the long and short of it. I love going jump racing, when I'm back home, love it. But could I do it there? Not a chance.

“When I came over here, I was going absolutely nowhere. Ireland, Newmarket, Dubai, it had all dried up. And I got here with nothing. I'd say I had $500 or $600 to my name, didn't have a phone. But it's amazing how things can snowball over here.”

As it is, continuing the momentum of his best campaign to date in 2023, Ennis has already saddled 11 winners from 33 starters this year and one of those, Epic Ride (Blame), looks the horse to beat for 20 Derby points in the John Battaglia S. at Turfway on Saturday.

Whatever happens, just finding himself with a potential Derby type suggests that Ennis is entering a new phase after laying the foundations of his Stateside career with a pragmatic eye for precocity. Hitherto his modus operandi at the Thoroughbred Center near Lexington has been to showcase speed in early juveniles, in the hope of selling them on. It's almost been like transferring the breeze-up pinhook to racetrack competition.

“And we're still doing the same model,” he stresses. “I've plenty of sharp-looking individuals for the spring. But yes, if we can, going forward hopefully we're trying to get that bigger, maybe classier horse. I'm not trying to change things that are working, but every trainer wants to get up to the Premier League. You don't want to get labeled just with that cheap, early sprinting type. You always want better quality.”

Not that the two are mutually exclusive. As Wesley Ward has shown, you can upgrade while still dealing primarily with speed.

“Correct,” Ennis responds. “There's plenty that do go on from winning early in the spring to become Breeders' Cup horses, and then have a good 3-year-old career as well. So all I'm trying to do is get that better quality, whether it's five furlongs or two turns. Good horses make good trainers. The top trainers will tell you that those horses basically train themselves.”

Up to now, however, necessity has been the mother of invention. Since early, commercial types were more affordable, they became the seed corn. And, in contrast with the breeze-up programs, Ennis could also avoid the artificial deadline of a 2-year-old sale catalogue.

“It's just kind of a win-win situation,” Ennis says. “It was a quick turnover: I could get these horses to run fast, keep them sound, get them to the Keeneland spring meet. And I could make a little money, because I'd own a piece myself. There didn't seem to be many people doing it, and I thought that it could be a way to survive over here.

“For the 2-year-old sales, you get one day where they have to be ready. But if we're not ready for Keeneland opening weekend, we've still got the whole month, and then Churchill. Prize money is good, so if you can win you might get paid twice: you get your purse, and you can sell.”

The foundations were admittedly precarious. Ennis bought his first yearling, a $7,000 colt by Yes It's True, at Fasig-Tipton's October Sale in 2017. Other than dabbling with the odd bit of rehab or pre-training, in the five years since his arrival he had subsisted chiefly on freelance trackwork. Even $7,000, then, was more than he could afford.

“I was getting older, and it was getting harder on the body to be galloping all the time,” he recalls. “But it looked like I would just have to carry on as I was unless I could develop the training side. I remember going over to Fasig and thinking, 'Look, no one is going to give me horses. No one knows me. No one trusts me. So I'll have to buy my own.'”

Erin, meanwhile, his wife and mother to their twins Jack and Eleanor, was supportive as ever. Somehow they scraped the money together, with the help of friends, and Weiland showed a bit of dash before fading into fifth on debut at Keeneland. Ennis rolled the dice immediately, entering the colt for a stakes at Churchill, and was rewarded when Weiland just prevailed after a tense stretch drive.

“So after that we got him sold, and it just snowballed from there,” Ennis says. “And I just kept reinvesting, kept doing it, again and again.”

Deep in the Keeneland September Sale of 2019, for instance, he found an Oxbow colt for $9,500. The following July, as a Churchill debut winner and GIII Bashford Manor S. runner-up, County Final topped Fasig-Tipton's Horses of Racing Age auction at $475,000.

But now Epic Ride is threatening to elevate Ennis to new heights. He already did that, in fairness, simply by walking into the barn as a $160,000 yearling. He had been found at the Keeneland September Sale by Welch Racing, who were recommended to Ennis by his friend and client Martha Jane Mulholland of Mulholland Springs Farm.

“So it was great to be given that opportunity,” Ennis says gratefully. “It's a group round Jennifer and Mark Welch from Tennessee, lovely people and kind of new in the game. I think it was Mark's dad that always wanted to have a Derby horse, and for his ambition to be carried on, so that's why they named him Epic Ride.

“He's a beautiful, scopey horse; big but not too big, if you know what I mean. On looks he certainly wouldn't be out of place in the Derby paddock. And he's fast, but he carries it. The thing I really like is that he's uber professional, just settles so well. He probably should have won first time, sprinting, but it actually probably worked out better that he just got beat, as it got that extra race into him and he was able to win his maiden impressively. And then he came back for the Leonatus S. I didn't think he was quite ready, physically, but he won easy, didn't get a smack or anything and galloped out strong.”

Ennis is too familiar with the challenging margins of his profession to be getting carried away, but the reality is that a similar performance against a deeper field on Saturday could not fail to evoke the recent examples of Two Phil's and Rich Strike. The latter was probably not as effective on a synthetic track, but Two Phil's turned out to be one of those horses that are simply more adaptable than people tend to expect.

“And before those you've obviously had others, like Animal Kingdom, that switched between surfaces,” Ennis muses. “And you know what, one thing about Turfway, they come out of their races really good. They don't have the grueling, punishing races that they sometimes do on the dirt. These horses that have been coming out of the Jeff Ruby [the Grade III climax of the Turfway series], they've bounced out of it and they've run well in the Derby. So, look, we'll see if he can get the points, and then we can start thinking about the Ruby or the [GI] Blue Grass.”

Long before he started training on this scale, Ennis had always noticed the different effects of different surfaces in conditioning a horse.

“For years, I was riding a lot of nice horses for some of the bigger trainers,” he notes. “And when you're riding that many horses, every day, you'd get to feel how some of them were getting tired and labored underneath you. So I never want to empty a horse on the dirt, because it can bottom them fairly fast. At the Thoroughbred Center, it's a heavy enough dirt, it takes a bit of getting. You could easily overcook a horse if you trained them too much. So, yeah, less can be more.”

That earlier experience riding trackwork also introduced Ennis to what elevates the best horses from the herd. For he was once the regular exercise partner of a future dual Horse of the Year in Wise Dan (Wiseman's Ferry).

“He was just a different gear, a freak,” he says with enthusiasm. “He was your American Frankel (GB), he was that good. He'd have been quick enough to go six furlongs, his cruising speed was that fast. And he'd probably have stayed a mile and a half, too.”

Ennis has never attended the Derby and nor does he intend to do so–unless he meets one condition.

“It's only down the road, obviously, but I've always said that I'd never go until I have a runner,” he says. “If this horse doesn't make it, I won't go. But it would be a dream, just to be part of it. The Derby's not the be-all and end-all, but it would be huge just to do that walk over, with 130,000 people screaming at you. That stuff doesn't happen. It would be madness.”

In the meantime, Ennis is keeping his feet on the ground and sticking to the process. Here, after all, is a man who started with nothing. The first to support him was Allen Greathouse, now an investor in nearly every yearling project.

“I've got some great clients now, but he was the first,” Ennis says. “He trusts me, and he's doing well with it. We bought a Collected yearling off Stone Farm at Keeneland for $2,500, Gewurztraminer, and after he won easy at Churchill we sold him for $250,000. And actually I was out at Stone Farm the other day, and hopefully they'll be sending me his siblings.

“I've now got Three Diamonds Farm, Cheyenne Stables, Dixiana. Bourbon Lane are sending me some. It's building up crazily; really, I need more room. When I started out, I was subleasing a couple of stalls. Then I might have had two horses in this barn, four in that one, all spread out. Now I've got a whole barn of 40, plus 10 in another one. And 30 of them are 2-year-olds. Thank God, they've been running consistently well for quite a while now. Maybe it's the better horses, maybe I'm placing them better, maybe it's a combination. But momentum is key, isn't it? So, yeah, just keep the foot down.”

It's a world apart, certainly, from the cul-de-sac he had reached at the end of his 20s back in the Old World. Unlike so many Irishmen who have preceded him here, Ennis was by no means born into the game. His dad, a truck driver, would take him from their home in Co. Meath to the old Phoenix Park, and the boy would gaze in awe at Steve Cauthen riding out of the parade ring in the old Sheikh Mohammed silks. He left school at 15 and entered the apprentice academy at the Curragh with little sense of vocation. By the time he boarded that plane, his path with horses appeared to be fading. All he knew was that he had a friend to stay with, and hoped to pick up some trackwork. Within two or three months he was riding through to mid-afternoon daily, making good money, already beginning to sense that this was a place where a striver could make things happen.

“And let me tell you this, the Irish expat community in Lexington is the best in the world, bar none,” he says. “If something goes wrong, or someone's in trouble, they all come together and look after you. I've seen it time and again. Everyone will get together to get you out of a hole. It's amazing. We're all competing, all trying to buy and sell horses, all trying to make money–but we're all in it together.”

Last year his father came over and found himself being photographed with Cauthen in the Keeneland paddock–a barn client, in his role with Dixiana–and watching races from the farm's box.

“I trained a Dixiana homebred filly [Icicles (Frosted)] to win a stakes at Turfway at the start of the year,” Ennis says proudly. “They're all so easy to deal with, Steve, Rob Tillyer, everyone.

“I'm 42 now and have still never had money. But the reason I don't have money now is because I keep buying horses! And at least I can provide for my family. I would definitely encourage other guys to come over. There's so many good people in Ireland and England, just wasting away. Come over here and give it five years. If you don't like it, go home. But give it a go.”

Of course, a spirit of adventure brings no guarantees. If Ennis has earned unusual success, he evidently has aptitudes that are no less common.

“American Dream, that's basically what it is,” he says with a shrug. “But it is all about hard work. You get over here, and you work. Look after whatever dollars or cents you can get, try to keep things together–and always invest in yourself.”

The post ‘Shamrocks in the Bluegrass’: John Ennis Enjoying the Ride appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Emmitt Smith, Brooks Nader to Host Club SI Opening at Churchill Downs

Pro Football Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith and model Brooks Nader will join with Sports Illustrated to host festivities when Club SI, the new luxury dining experience, debuts at Churchill Downs on opening day of Kentucky Derby week. Club SI, a multi-year exclusive naming rights partnership announced in January between Churchill Downs Racetrack and Sports Illustrated, will offer guests a modern, sophisticated race day experience as part of the racetrack's $200-million renovated Paddock Project.

Club SI will offer a luxury dining experience with an immersive view of the all-new Paddock and Paddock Runway and will be open on premium race days throughout the year at Churchill Downs. Guests will have the option to book dining tables, indulge in gourmet dishes from the curated Chef's Table Buffet, visit dedicated wagering windows and private bars, and enjoy outdoor trackside viewing for live races. Steps from the club, guests will be treated to the SI Enclosure which will deliver a front-row experience of the Paddock with covered outdoor dining tables.

For ticket information, click here.

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Slight Uptick in Rate of Fatal Injuries in 2023

According to numbers compiled by The Jockey Club for its Equine Injury Database (EID), there were 1.32 fatalities per 1,000 starts at North American racetracks in 2023. That was slightly worse than in 2022 when the number was 1.25, the lowest rate of fatalities since The Jockey Club started compiling numbers in 2009. It was the first time the number had increased year-over-year since 2018 when there were 1.68 fatalities per 1,000 starters.

Nonetheless, the figures showed that the sport has made obvious strides since 2009 when it comes to fatalities. In 2009, the rate was 2.0 per 1,000 starters. When compared to 2009, 2023 shows a 34% decrease in risk of fatal injury.

“This change is statistically significant,” said Professor Tim Parkin (University of Bristol), who has consulted on the EID since its inception. “This is equivalent to 171 fewer horses sustaining a fatal injury racing in 2023 than would have occurred had the number of starts remained constant since 2009.”

The 2023 figures were the second lowest since the EID began compiling numbers, surpassed only by 2022.

Analysis of the EID was provided Parkin and by Dr. Euan Bennet of the University of Glasgow.

“There was a slight increase in the rate of fatality from 2022 to 2023 of 5.6%,” Parkin said. “However, this is not statistically significant, and we are encouraged by the low numbers in 2023 that the industry is still headed in the right direction with regard to keeping its horses safe.”

Based on the 2023 data, 99.87% of flat racing starts at the racetracks participating in the EID were completed without a fatality.

Once again, synthetic tracks proved to be the safest among the three types of racing surfaces. There were 0.97 deaths per 1,000 starters on synthetic tracks, 1.13 on turf courses, and 1.43 on dirt tracks.

Races for 2-year-olds proved to be the safest types of races.  There were 0.79 fatalities per 1,000 starters in those races versus 1.37 for 3-year-old races and 1.38 for races for 4-year-olds an upward.

By distance, races run at less than six furlongs showed the fewest fatalities at 1.22 per 1,000. Races run from six to eight furlongs had a rate of 1.37 and for races longer than eight furlongs, the number was 1.32.

During the year, the problems of horses breaking down were magnified by a rash of fatalities at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. At Saratoga in 2023, the rate of breakdowns was 2.55 per 1,000 starters. Churchill Downs does not make its numbers public.

Among tracks that had meets of more than 10 days, one stood out. There were zero fatalities at Del Mar during its racing seasons.

Racetracks under the jurisdiction of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) fared better than non-HISA tracks in 2023. There were 1.23 fatalities per 1,000 starters at HISA tracks, while the number at non-HISA track was 1.63.

“HISA's most important goal is driving down equine fatalities,” said HISA CEO Lisa Lazarus. “We undoubtedly have significant work ahead of us, but I am pleased to see the rate is trending in the right direction. The reduction in the rate of equine fatalities at tracks under our jurisdiction demonstrates that setting high standards for racetrack safety and anti-doping and medication control across the country makes Thoroughbred racing safer.”

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